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A combination picture shows Chinese leaders Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi.
What We’re Watching: Xi the all-powerful, Sunak the frontrunner, Shoigu the (nuclear) warmonger
All the secretary-general’s men
As expected, Xi Jinping was "re-elected" to a third term as secretary-general of China's ruling Communist Party on Sunday, a day after its 20th Congress wrapped up in Beijing. (The tightly scripted event had a bit of drama when his predecessor, Hu Jintao, was escorted out for “health reasons” as Xi looked on.) More importantly, the CCP unveiled its new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, now made up entirely of Xi loyalists.
Who's in and who's out? The biggest name — other than Xi himself — is Shanghai party boss Li Qiang, who walked onto the red carpet in the Great Hall of the People right after Xi, which means he's now No. 2 in the CCP hierarchy and will likely be appointed premier in March. Li will replace current Premier Li Keqiang (no relation), who who retired before reaching the mandatory age of 70 and was removed from China's top decision-making body. Interestingly, Li Qiang was promoted by Xi despite having no nationwide executive experience and bungling Shanghai's COVID lockdown earlier this year. He’s been entrusted with running the economy at a time of the slowest growth China has seen for decades — in no small part due to Xi refusing to budge on zero-COVID.
What does this mean for Xi and for China? It's "a clean sweep for Xi allies and a consolidation of power unseen since the Mao era," tweeted Eurasia Group senior China analyst Neil Thomas. In other words, China's leader will be entirely surrounded by yes-men until the next party congress in 2027. On the one hand, that'll allow Xi to double down on policies that he thinks are ultimately good for China, such as "common prosperity" to make economic growth more equitable. On the other, Xi will be on the hook if things go south — as they famously did the last time China was under tight one-man rule.
Sunak leads race to replace Truss
Britain’s Conservatives are off to the races — again — this time to replace outgoing Prime Minister Liz Truss. Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced Sunday his second run for the top job and has already clinched the support of almost 180 MPs, well over the 100-MP threshold set by the Tories. In a last-minute twist, he won’t face off against his old boss Boris Johnson, after the ignominiously ousted PM unexpectedly dropped out of the race. Sunak’s only declared rival is now former defense chief Penny Mordaunt, who barely has 25 MPs supporting her but hopes some Johnson fans will switch to her side. Still, the UK seems to be going through its own It’s the economy, stupid moment of truth: ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Britain’s economic outlook from “stable” to “negative,” citing instability and high inflation. And in a rare show of bureaucratic discontent, Whitehall officials called out the upcoming spending cuts by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt — the UK’s fourth finance minister in as many months. The way things are going, there might be a fifth chancellor soon after Oct. 31, when Hunt delivers his “Halloween Speech” to unveil his new fiscal plan to the House of Commons — or is it the House of Horrors?
Is Russia playing “dirty”?
The lines of communication are open, but the topics are grim. On Friday and Sunday, for the first time since May, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian colleague Sergei Shoigu. Their topics of discussion were red lines and nukes, with the Biden administration seeking information on what might provoke a Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine. In weekend discussions with NATO counterparts, meanwhile, Shoigu flagged that Ukraine might be planning to use a “dirty bomb” — a conventional blast containing radioactive material. Russia’s state-owned news agency said the purpose would be to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction and to turn the world against Moscow. The US National Security Council rejected the allegations as “transparently false.” Kyiv also pushed back, noting that it has no such weapons. “Russians often accuse others of what they plan themselves,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the allegations mean “Russia has already prepared all this” and encouraged the world to push back in the “toughest possible way.”This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Visitors walk past an image of President Xi Jinping holding a ballot ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: China’s party congress, US-Mexico migrant deal
China's party is having a party
China's ruling Communist Party kicks off its 20th Congress on Sunday. By far the most-followed event in Chinese politics, the CCP will give itself, as always, a (glowing) report card and lay out how it'll govern China until 2027. All eyes will be on Xi Jinping, a shoo-in to get a precedent-shattering third term as CCP secretary-general, paving the way for him to become China’s leader for life. What's more, Xi is also expected to adopt the symbolic title of “Helmsman,” putting him at the same level as Mao Zedong. Perhaps even more importantly, by the end of next week, we'll know the composition of Politburo's elite Standing Committee, whose seven members — including Xi himself — have the final say on major political, economic, and social issues. If the bulk of them are Xi loyalists instead of technocrats, that'll be a signal that he prioritizes political control over the structural reforms China needs to fix its big problems. Finally, keep an eye out for the order in which the seven men step onto the stage of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. If none of them is in his mid-50s and stands close to Xi, that’ll mean he hasn’t picked a successor yet.
Biden to Venezuelans: Steer clear of Mexico border
Under a new US-Mexico agreement, undocumented Venezuelan asylum-seekers who are caught crossing into the US from Mexico will be sent back across the border. At the same time, however, Washington will now grant temporary residence and emigration flights to 24,000 Venezuelans who have applied for asylum from their home country and have a sponsor in the US. Since 2018, six million have fled political repression and economic collapse in Venezuela, making it one of the world’s worst refugee crises. Many of them have undertaken dangerous journeys on foot through Colombia, Central America, and Mexico. Until now, Washington has allowed Venezuelans to remain in the US while their asylum cases were reviewed. But with record numbers of undocumented migrants arriving at the US southern border, and midterms fast approaching, the White House is utilizing the controversial Trump-era Title 42 provision that allows officials to swiftly expel migrants who arrive without papers.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
From left to right, Lega leader Matteo Salvini, Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi, and Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni during a campaign rally in Rome.
What We're Watching: Italian election, Chinese anti-corruption drive, Lebanese bank shutdown
Italy votes!
Italians head to the polls on Sunday and are likely to elect Italy’s first far-right leader since World War II. Giorgia Meloni, 47, who heads the Brothers of Italy Party (which has neofascist roots) is slated to become Italy’s next PM. Polls indicate Brothers will win about a quarter of the vote, while her three-party coalition, including Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega Party and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, is projected to secure around 45%. Four years ago, Brothers – established in 2012 – reaped just 4% of the vote, but it has benefited recently from the left’s implosion as well as Meloni’s refusal to back the centrist Draghi government, which collapsed this summer, making her the most formidable opposition figure (Salvini and Berlusconi backed Draghi). Italy has convoluted voting rules but will be voting on 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (lower house) and 200 seats in the Senate – the winning coalition needs a majority in both. Meloni aims to dilute the EU’s power over Italian affairs, though she believes Rome must preserve close ties with Brussels, and she supports EU and NATO efforts to contain Russian aggression. Read this primer to learn more about what Meloni does – and doesn’t – stand for.
Xi's war on corruption — and disloyalty
A Chinese court on Thursday gave one of Xi Jinping’s former anti-corruption top dogs a death sentence that will be commuted to life in prison after two years for ... bribery. Fu Zhenghua, a former police chief and justice minister who led multiple probes under Xi's former anti-graft czar, pleaded guilty in July to taking $16.5 million in bribes, presumably in exchange for the commutation. The plot thickens: Fu was busted amid a wider crackdown on a ring of dirty ex-cops led by Sun Lijun, who’s awaiting his own sentence for bribery. But as far as the ruling Communist Party is concerned, their most heinous crime was setting up a political faction separate to Xi’s, which is why its members are getting hefty punishments. (Juicy tidbits of their case were featured in “Zero Tolerance,” a slick state-sponsored docuseries that celebrates the success of Xi's war on graft.) The timing is interesting too: in about three weeks, the CCP is holding its 20th Party Congress, where Xi is expected to get a precedent-shattering third term as secretary-general. The party has a penchant for taking down dirty officials ahead of big dates, but going after a clique of cadres disloyal to Xi sends a clear message: don’t cross the big boss.
Unbanked Lebanon
Lebanese can’t catch a break. They’ve had their dollar savings withdrawals strictly limited since the Lebanese pound dropped in late 2019. And now, two weeks after a woman held up a bank to withdraw part of her own savings to pay for her sister's cancer treatment, inspiring copycat heists, the banks have simply shut. Citing security concerns, the country’s banking association says all banks will remain closed indefinitely. ATM services in pounds are available, but the shutdown is expected to make things even worse for the 80% of Lebanese who already struggle to pay for their daily needs with the weakened currency amid sky-high inflation. This is just the latest twist in Lebanon’s descent into economic collapse, which started three years ago. The government, meanwhile, keeps giving the International Monetary Fund the runaround on the economic reforms required to unlock a $3 billion bailout. One of the conditions is to give small depositors access to their savings.
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