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People celebrate after fighters of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Aleppo, Syria, December 13, 2024.
From Assad to Uncertainty
Syria’s new leadership claims it wants to prioritize stability and reconstruction over further conflict – but will that be possible? With Israel fortifying the Golan Heights, Turkey expanding its influence, and Russia retreating, we’re watching this week if Syria and its neighbours will manage to get along — and how allies and adversaries will react.
No new confrontation – for now. Inan interview given on Saturday to Syria TV, Ahmad al-Sharaa — formerly known by his nom de guerre “Abu Mohammed al-Golani” — the leader of the HTS, stated that despite Israel having “clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria”, the country’s war-weary condition “does not allow for new confrontations.” Instead, Al-Sharaa stated that HTS’ priorities are reconstruction and stability and called for diplomatic solutions to ensure Syria’s security.
Israel is still wary. Despite al-Sharaa’s moderate tone, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katzmaintained that security threats to Israel have not diminished. Israeli forces remain present in the buffer zone inside Syria and continue to conduct strikes on military targets. On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans todouble the Israeli population of the Golan Heights as a defensive measure against the “new front” that had opened up in the wake of Assad’s ouster, but says his country has "no interest in a conflict with Syria."
Iran steps out, Turkey steps in. Assad’s fall dealta severe blow to Tehran’s influence in Syria, a vacuum Ankara is only too happy to fill. Turkey has now offered toprovide military training to Syria's new administration if requested, and will maintain troops in several cities in northern Syria, where it has been conducting military operations since 2016. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Güler said his country’s priority remains the elimination of Kurdish militias, which enjoy US backing but are considered terrorists by Turkey.
What about Russia? The other big loser in Syriais Moscow, which had heavily backed Assad’s regime for years, in exchange for strategic positions within the country including the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base. Recent satellite imagery has shown Russian forcespacking up military equipment and preparing for transport. The Kremlin has confirmed that Moscow isin discussions with HTS about retaining its two bases, but has withdrawn troops from frontline positions.
Will the United States fill the gap? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that Washington has beenactively engaging with Syria's new leadership but gave no details on when or at what level. Blinken met over the weekend with regional leaders in Jordan to discuss Syria’s future as well as seek the return of Austin Tice, an American journalist detained a decade ago in Syria.
Blinken also emphasized the importance of destroying chemical weapons and rejecting terrorism, warning that “This is a moment of vulnerability in which ISIS will seek to regroup.”
Could US policy change under Trump? When Assad’s government fell, President-elect Donald Trumpposted “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, told Fox News last week that Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate to keep the United States out of regional wars, and that America's"core interests" remain ISIS, Israel and "our Gulf Arab allies". There are no indications that Trump or his team have reached out to HTS, but the President-elect has reportedly spoken with Netanyahuabout Israel’s plans to expand settlements in the Golan Heights.