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Argentina fan celebrates after the World Cup match against Mexico.
World Cup heats up Argentina’s presidential race
When Argentina faces Poland in their do-or-die last group stage match on Wednesday, one thing will be missing at the stadium in Qatar: Argentine politicians.
In the soccer-crazy South American nation, políticos rarely watch the Albiceleste, in person to avoid getting blamed for a loss. Former President Mauricio Macri didn’t get the memo, as he attended — in his new FIFA gig — Argentina’s shocking loss to Saudi Arabia last week. Almost on cue, fans responded by launching an online petition for Macri and his bad juju to stay as far away as possible from GOAT Leo Messi and his crew.
But the brouhaha over Macri is part of a bigger story: The former president has hinted he might want to get his old job back in next year’s election.
Less than a year out from the vote, these are turbulent times in Argentina. Ordinary people are struggling to make ends meet and to figure out how much basic items will actually cost each day, with inflation expected to reach 100% by the end of the year.
The government has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem, but neither IMF austerity to restore confidence in the peso nor direct intervention through price controls have worked to tame runaway inflation. COVID also did a lot of damage, and, to be fair, Argentina’s economic disaster is a legacy of decades of mismanagement, spending beyond its means, and stiffing creditors.
What’s more, no one knows who’ll run in the end. If the center-right Macri throws his hat in the ring, he’ll probably face either deeply unpopular President Alberto Fernández or frenemy VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (no relation), who held the top job from 2007-2015. Both are from the traditional left — especially Cristina, whom Argentines refer to by her first name.
A face-off between candidates like this would be deeply polarizing for a country that has swung back and forth on the ideological spectrum twice in the past decade. Macri — who’s not a shoo-in for the nomination if he runs — is as loved by his supporters and hated by his critics as Cristina is.
The feisty vice president is currently under indictment for corruption, but Cristina will probably never see the inside of a prison cell even if she’s convicted. And she demonstrated that she still owns the streets after surviving a recent assassination attempt.
There's also a domestic soccer angle with Macri. The former president got into politics after winning many trophies as president of Boca Juniors, whose supporters call themselves La mitad más uno (Half plus one) as the most popular team in Buenos Aires and all of Argentina.
You’d think that Boca fans would be all in for the man that led the team to so much success — yet most xeneizes are working-class people who’ve historically voted left and won’t cheer for a rich businessman like Macri. Perhaps that’s why the ex-president has, until now, favored Patricia Bullrich, his popular tough-on-crime former security minister.
Whoever leads the opposition ticket is favored to win. A recent poll shows that two-thirds of Argentinians want the ruling Peronista coalition out of power. That’s consistent with a broader trend in the region: For nearly a decade now, Latin Americans have been consistently voting out incumbents, regardless of their ideology.
One rising presidential hopeful is upstart Javier Milei, an eccentric libertarian economist and TV personality who claims not to have brushed his hair since he was 13. The independent Milei, who’s making waves with populist gimmicks like auctioning off his paycheck, would need strong party backing to go all the way, but his early surge tells you a lot about where Argentine voters’ heads are right now.
One thing is clear — the current president is toast. "Even if Argentina wins the World Cup, it is almost certain that Fernández would lose the election," says Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov. "Whatever politicians like to say, there is no evidence of a relationship between success in sport and politics."
Thought bubble: Although Macri's approval ratings had already started to drop before the 2018 World Cup in Russia, his numbers really began to tank soon after Argentina was eliminated due to the president’s own economic blunders. He never recovered and lost his re-election bid to Fernández.
It sure looks like the incumbent will meet the same fate as his predecessor — if Fernández runs at all.
World leaders: Thanks for nothing!
This Thursday, many of our readers — particularly in the US — will celebrate Thanksgiving.
At worst, it’s a day to argue with your relatives about super-chill topics like climate change, racism, abortion, or cancel culture (here’s a useful guide for that.)
But at best, it’s an opportunity to take a moment, look around, and recognize the things you’re grateful for in this life.
And it’s not just you — our world leaders have much to be thankful for as well. Here, then, is a partial list of global gratitude:
US President Joe Biden: God love ya, Donald, I’m grateful you’re gonna run again! You’re probably the only fella I can beat in 2025, I mean ‘24. Don’t you go messing this up, Florida Gov. Ronda Sannis!
Former US President Donald Trump: Even though I am still VERY unfairly treated by the FAKE media and radical left psychopaths who are doing so much to ruin our beautiful COUNTRY, I am grateful that I continue to be the person I admire most: ME. #Trump2024
Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani:Shukran! We are so thankful to the billions of fans who aren’t fazed by our little kingdom’s human rights fiascos and dodgy FIFA dealings — and we’re especially grateful that the world’s second-largest economy is among them.
Twitter boss Elon Musk: Hey so yeah thanks for the extremely hard work of the 18 guys — literally all guys — who still work for me here. But what I’d REALLY like is can Trump get back on Twitter already? Kanye is good LOLs, sure — but I need more mayhem to make this $44 billion worth it.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen: Just grateful for the immense difference that a well-placed strait makes. For now …
Chinese leader Xi Jinping: For now indeed, Ms. Tsai. For my part, I’m thankful that COVID — wherever it came from — had an upside! It’s been a capital excuse to lock down a billion or so people and show the Party “Hu’s” boss.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel: To be honest, I happy to just be OUT of all this mess entirely. Keeping my notifications OFF. Noch eine Piña Colada, bitte!
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: Nature is a wonder, a gift. Today I’m grateful to the sedimentary deposits of the prehistoric Tethys Ocean, which — so many hundreds of millions of years later — have helped my country to get rich, and enabled me to get away with ... oh, you know, stuff …
Argentine President Alberto Fernández:Gracias a Messi and the squad for getting humiliated by Saudi Arabia. You have given the Argentines something even worse than the economy to be depressed about for the next week.
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un: I am grateful to the sea for so graciously putting up with the missiles that I fire into it – constantly, angrily, pointlessly. WHY IS NO ONE PAYING ATTENTION TO ME? WHY?
Brazilian President-elect Lula: I am now a card-carrying member of the Pandemic Gratitude Club founded by Joe Biden. If not for COVID, I don’t think either of us would have won. Obrigadão!
Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr: Not only am I grateful for the world’s best nickname, I also can’t thank today’s Filipino youth enough. They have no idea who my dad was, so they all voted for me! Bongbong loves the kids!
UK PM Rishi Sunak: Grateful indeed to have made it past the “head-of-lettuce” stage of my premiership. Still, it was perhaps foolish to give up swimming through my pools of gold coins just to take charge of the world’s sickest advanced economy.
South Africa’s former President Jacob Zuma: Grateful, my friends, for a little extra time by the pool before I head back to jail, again.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni: I just want to say grazie mille to Matteo Salvini, whose self-destructive antics have opened so very many opportunities for me. But Silvio, you stay the hell away from me…
Signal writers: We’re grateful to have the best job and readers in the world. It’s a pleasure to write for you and to chat/spar with those of you who write in — either to show love or (especially) to take issue with our work.
You: What are you, dear reader, grateful for? Let us know here.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Sergio Massa attends an event after the 2021 midterm elections in Buenos Aires.
What We’re Watching: Argentina’s super minister, China-Zambia debt deal, Ukrainian grain trader dead
Can a "super minister" save Argentina?
Argentina's embattled President Alberto Fernández has appointed Sergio Massa, the influential leader of the lower house of parliament, to head a new "super ministry" that Fernández hopes will help steer the country out of a deep economic crisis. Massa, Argentina's third economic minister in less than a month, will oversee economic, manufacturing, and agricultural policy. He has his work cut out for him owing to soaring inflation, farmers demanding tax relief, and a recent run on the peso. Massa also needs to convince the IMF that Argentina will comply with the terms of its $44 billion debt restructuring deal. There's a political angle too: he's (arguably) the strongest candidate the left-wing Peronista coalition has to run for president next year if the unpopular Fernández drops his bid for a second term. Massa is one of very few politicians who can navigate the ongoing rift between the president and his powerful VP, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. If the new "super minister" does a good job, he'll be in pole position for a 2023 presidential run; if he fails, the ruling Peronistas will face long odds to stay in power.
China gives Zambia debt relief, paving way for others
Zambia's creditors, led by China, will give the cash-strapped African country enough debt relief to unlock a $1.3 billion IMF loan it desperately needs to get back into the black. It's the first time that Beijing has coordinated with other governments to restructure the debt of a low-income country instead of collecting on its own. This is good news not only for Zambia but also for other nations that owe a lot to China such as Sri Lanka, which has already defaulted, and Pakistan, which could be next. Zambia, the first country to default after COVID struck, is often cited as a glaring example of China's so-called debt trap diplomacy. But President Hichilema Hakainde, elected in late 2021, has successfully leveraged the country's vast copper reserves to reassure both the IMF and China (the latter wary of the bad optics of squeezing African countries. The deal also puts pressure on private creditors to give more breathing room to heavily indebted nations grappling with high inflation and a strong US dollar. But there's a catch: private investors will have to agree to at least as much debt relief as public creditors.
The latest from Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated on multiple fronts over the weekend, particularly with heavy shelling in the southern city of Mykolaiv that killed businessman Oleksiy Vadatursky. The death of Vadatursky, head of one of Ukraine’s top grain exporting companies, comes just as grain shipments are set to finally resume on Monday from its Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed it killed dozens of Russian soldiers near Kherson, crucial for the Kremlin’s supply lines lines in the Donbas region. But Kyiv had to play defense as well, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered the mandatory evacuation of civilians in the eastern Donetsk province, indicating that fighting is likely to get even more intense there. Finally, Russia was forced to cancel Navy Day in Crimea after its Black Sea Fleet was attacked by a drone from inside the Russian-occupied peninsula hours after President Vladimir Putin announced a new security doctrine with global maritime ambitious and declaring America as Russia’s greatest enemy.Argentina's VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner waves at supporters next to President Alberto Fernández at the closing campaign rally before the 2021 midterm elections in Buenos Aires.
War of the Fernandezes in Argentina
Argentina's leftwing government is led by two people named Fernández: President Alberto Fernández and his vice president, the almost equally powerful former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
The two have always been odd bedfellows, and often clash over policy. But lately their disagreements have reached fever pitch, fueling rumors of a split that could hurt the president's reelection odds next year amid a worsening economic crisis: sky-high inflation, a plummeting peso, capital controls, and Argentina's usual piling debt.
Why don't the president and the VP get along, and what does that mean for Argentina's political future? We get some clarity from Eurasia Group's Daniel Kerner and Luciano Sigalov.
Why was the recent resignation of the economy minister such a big deal?
Fernández had no plan to replace now-former Economy Minister Martin Guzmán when he resigned on 2 July via Twitter, while Cristina — popularly known by her first name in Argentina — was delivering a speech.
Guzmán was one of the president's closest advisers and one of the few officials that still stood with him despite increasing pressures to resign from Cristina and her group. Fernández struggled to find a replacement because nobody wanted to take the post unless guaranteed a strong political backing to conduct needed adjustments, and this, of course, was absent.
Just a few weeks before, Economic Development Minister Matías Kulfas also left the cabinet due to infighting with the VP.
Why have tensions been mounting between the president and the VP?
Cristina has been very critical of the $44 billion debt restructuring deal with the IMF signed earlier this year, arguing that Guzman didn’t negotiate hard enough with the IMF as former President Mauricio Macri did in 2018.
In parallel, she resents Fernández and Guzmán for spending cuts mandated by the IMF that in her view led to the Peronistas losing big in last November's midterm elections. On top of this, Cristina thinks that the president and Guzmán have not been tough enough on the private sector to curb rising inflation and protect dwindling US dollar reserves.
Fernandez's attempts to rebut these criticisms have always resulted in more attacks from Cristina and her allies, generating a vicious cycle of ever-escalating attacks within the ruling coalition. Overall, the VP believes the government should borrow and spend more to boost support for the administration, which is risky given high inflation and lack of resources.
Who’s really calling the shots?
Nobody, and that's the problem. Cristina is by far the most influential figure in the ruling coalition, where she has de-facto veto power. A two-time president (2007-2015), she captained the creation of the Everybody’s Front, and it was her idea to field Fernández against Macri in the 2019 presidential election. But she avoids taking responsibility for policy, so we have a government with no plan and driven mostly by inertia.
Who do you think will prevail in the long run?
Tensions will remain high, and likely unresolved. Fernández is unlikely to resign, as he wants to finish his term, while Cristina doesn't want to cause an even deeper crisis if she becomes president. At this point, it's evident that Cristina is the most relevant stakeholder of the ruling coalition and always ultimately prevails. Therefore, she will become more active in the coming months as she tries to influence policy-making and shape who runs for president in 2023.
What is the outlook for the IMF program?
Guzman's replacement, Silvina Batakis, sent a signal of moderation by reaffirming the government's commitment to the IMF agreement, in an effort to play down the perception that she would cave to pressure from Cristina to drive policy into further interventionism. But this was not enough to calm foreign exchange and local debt markets. For the moment, a full renegotiation of the IMF program looks unlikely, though there might be talks to alter some points of the program (Batakis is meeting IMF officials for the first time on Monday). While Cristina is unlikely to push for a quick break, she will resist adjustments — especially as the presidential race approaches, increasing the likelihood that targets won’t be met. In this scenario of a heightened political crisis and weak economic leadership, going into arrears with the IMF will depend much more on the IMF’s flexibility than on how Argentina implements the deal.
How will the split affect next year's election?
Cristina wants to decide who the candidates will be — of course not Fernández, despite his intention to run for re-election. She will be more active in the coming months as she will attempt to shape the ticket, but there are no seriously competitive Peronista candidates. Also, the VP might think twice before settling on a candidate to avoid repeating her mistake of picking a “traitor” in Fernández.
If Macri, who is as polarizing a figure for the left as Cristina is for the right, decides to run, she could feel compelled to compete herself. Nonetheless, Macri’s candidacy could intensify divisions within the opposition coalition Together for Change.
Overall, the administration’s troubles will benefit the opposition. But the real wildcard is growing discontent with the political class as a whole.
Activists demonstrate with a cardboard depicting late President Juan Domingo Peron and Maria Eva Duarte Peron, as Argentines demonstrate in support of Fernandez's administration as they celebrate the Loyalty Day, which commemorates the massive mobilization by supporters of Peron to demand his release after he was imprisoned, in 1945, in Buenos Aires, Argentina October 17, 2021.
The end of Peronismo in Argentina?
Argentina is famous for tango, literary greats like Jorge Luis Borges, and for producing (arguably) the world's two best soccer players of all time in Diego Maradona and Leo Messi. It's the third-largest economy in Latin America, and a global agricultural powerhouse.
Unfortunately, the country is also known for chronic political instability and has long been tagged an economic basket case — the direct result of successive populist governments spending beyond their means, and getting others to foot the bill for their mismanagement.
Messy politics and economic emergencies are all too common in Argentina. But after Sunday's midterm elections, Argentines can expect an especially rocky next two years.
The power brokers now have their backs to the wall. Argentina's ruling coalition, led by the Peronista party — named for nationalist, populist former president Juan Perón — has lost control of both houses of parliament for the first time since the restoration of democracy almost 40 years ago.
Even when the pro-business Mauricio Macri served as president (2015-2019), the Peronistas dominated the legislature, preventing his government from passing most laws they didn't want. Without his parliamentary cushion, Peronist President Alberto Fernández will now face a steep uphill battle in the second half of his four-year term.
This defeat comes at the worst possible time for the already-embattled Fernández. After COVID hit Argentina and its economy hard in 2020, annual inflation rose. It's now hovering above 50 percent despite the government's decision to cap the cost of 1,432 different products. The value of the peso has plummeted against the US dollar in 2021. Four out of 10 Argentines now live in poverty, up five percentage points from the day Fernández took power in December 2019.
Argentines have flooded the streets many times in recent months to protest one of the world's longest pandemic lockdowns. Fernández can expect more such public anger as economic conditions worsen.
The president also has problems within his political family. After the Peronistas were defeated two months ago in the midterm primaries, a dry run for Sunday's election, his powerful VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (no relation) forced him to reshuffle the cabinet. Expect the two to fight even more from now on.
But the former president, Argentina's best-known Peronista, is in an awkward position of her own. Many believe she pulls the president's strings and can mobilize large-scale street protests in Buenos Aires. But Fernández de Kirchner also knows that forcing Fernández to step down to advance her own political comeback is risky because Argentines haven't forgotten the corruption scandals that plagued her presidential reign.
The broader question is what will happen in Argentina when the Peronistas can no longer dictate laws. The opposition has long claimed that Peronist big-spending policies have led to crisis-provoking levels of debt, inviting intervention by the deeply resented International Monetary Fund. It's an open secret that Fernández might stiff the IMF on $19 billion due in March 2022, but the opposition could now make him negotiate a compromise against his will.
The consequences of an IMF default, which would be Argentina's third in 20 years, could be catastrophic for the economy. International credit would dry up, possibly provoking a run on local banks similar to the Corralito crisis in the early 2000s, one of the country's worst financial meltdowns ever.
Bottom line: the Peronist stranglehold on Argentine lawmaking has been broken. Argentine voters have made clear what they don't want. They now have two years to decide what they do before heading to the polls to elect a president in 2023.A man reacts during a rally to support the National Defense Force and to condemn the expansion of the Tigray People Liberation Front fighters into Amhara and Afar regional territories at the Meskel Square in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia August 8, 2021.
What We're Watching: Everyone vs Ethiopian PM, Brazil ditches Huawei, (more) trouble in Sudan, Argentina's midterms, Iraqi powder keg
Opposition forces unite in Ethiopia's civil war. The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which has been locked in a brutal year-long civil war against Ethiopian government forces, has now teamed up with another powerful militant outfit that wants to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The TPLF, now in alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army — which claims to represent Ethiopia's largest ethnic group — have swept towards the capital Addis Ababa in recent days, prompting the embattled Abiy to call on civilians to take up arms in defense of the city. The Tigray-Oromo alliance, called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist Forces, has called for Abiy's immediate ouster, either by negotiation or by force, and for the prosecution of government officials for war crimes. The UN says all sides in the conflict have committed abuses. The US, which has threatened to suspend Ethiopia's trade preferences over the government's alleged war crimes, is currently trying to broker a cease-fire. When Abiy came to power after popular protests in 2018, he was hailed for liberalizing what was formerly an extremely repressive government (controlled, as it happens, by the TPLF). Now it's looking like he may have unleashed the very forces that could tear the country apart and drive him from office — or worse.
Is China shut out of Brazil's 5G comp? Earlier this year, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro set an ambitious deadline to roll out 5G broadband – which provides much faster internet connections — by July 2022. In recent days, telecom firms have been vying to get a piece of the pie as the tender process heats up. Indeed, it's a lucrative prospect for telecom companies in a country where more than three-quarters of the population (or roughly 190 million people) are connected to the World Wide Web. But the process has not been smooth sailing because, well: China. Bolsonaro has been under a lot of pressure from China skeptics within his own government, and Washington, to exclude tech giant Huawei from the bidding wars. Bolsonaro ultimately caved, as Beijing has evidently been locked out of the process for now. Claro, a Mexican-Brazilian venture, and Spain's Telefonica seem to have walked away big winners from the 5G auction after putting up the most cash for spectrum rights. But this is all very awkward because Huawei has been a major tech provider in Brazil for decades, and local cell phone operators also rely on Huawei's tech. What's more, excluding Huawei, by far the most cost-effective supplier of 5G equipment in the country, will increase the project's overall cost, which is now expected to exceed $7 billion. Many remain skeptical that this massive task can be pulled off in just nine months. But whenever it does happen, it will be great news for Brazilians, many of whom live in remote areas with shoddy internet access.
Sudan on the brink. Two weeks after a military coup in Sudan, the country's security situation continues to deteriorate. On Sunday, soldiers responded to pro-democracy protests in Khartoum by tear-gassing and arresting more than 100 teachers who refuse to return to work until the transitional civilian-military government is restored. (The intervention drew comparisons to the harsh crackdown against protesters that eventually led to the ousting of longtime despot Omar al-Bashir in 2019.) Meanwhile, civilian PM Abdalla Hamdok remains under house arrest, and the internet is still shut down. Arab League mediators have arrived in the capital to try to mediate between junta leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the pro-civilian forces, but Burhan refuses to even call the power grab a coup. The country's largest union, which played a pivotal role in the 2019 protest movement, has called a two-day national strike — the opening salvo of a campaign of civil disobedience to force the military back to the negotiating table. Since the generals show no signs of backing down, the odds of more bloodshed are growing by the day.
Argentina votes, ruling party in trouble. Argentines go to the polls this coming Sunday to vote in the country's midterm legislative elections, with the ruling leftwing coalition of President Alberto Fernández bracing for heavy losses in both houses of parliament. The result will likely reflect the outcome of last September's primary elections, where the president's allies got clobbered by the center-right opposition. Since then, Fernández has caved to pressure from his powerful VP, former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (no relation), to double down on social spending and government intervention in the economy to curb skyrocketing inflation. But it hasn't worked: Fernández has capped prices on a whopping 1,432 products, yet annual inflation remains over 50 percent. Without a senate majority, it'll be very hard for the president to get much done in the second half of his term at the worst possible time: economists fear Argentina may stiff the IMF on part of the $45 billion it owes early next year. Another default could lead to a run on banks like in 2001, when the country suffered one of its worst financial crises ever. With presidential elections not on the horizon for another two years, buckle up for a lot of political instability until then.
Iraqi PM's narrow escape. Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi is lucky to be alive after a barrage of explosives was fired at his compound inside a high-security zone, injuring several security personnel. The brazen attack was carried out by pro-Iran militias, who have been violently calling for a recount since their parties did poorly in the recent parliamentary elections. On Friday, the militias tried to breach the fortified area known as the "Green Zone," which includes the PM's compound and Western embassies. Pro-Iran factions are particularly worried that Shia Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — whose party won the biggest share of votes and is trying to form a government — will try to temper Tehran's growing influence over the oil-rich country. (Al-Sadr has called for way less foreign interference in Iraq from Iran and the West). Even before the recent unrest, things weren't going well in Iraq, where power supplies are scarce and the economy is in shambles. What's more, Iraqis have little faith in the political elite's ability to fix things, as was reflected in the record-low election turnout. We're watching to see if this latest round of violence begets… more violence.
Argentina's President Alberto Fernandez attends a ceremony to announce new agro-economic measures inside the museum of Casa Rosada presidential palace, in Buenos Aires, Argentina September 30, 2021.
What We're Watching: Argentina's midterm elections
Argentina votes, ruling party in deep trouble. Argentines go to the polls this coming Sunday to vote in the country's midterm legislative elections, with the ruling leftwing coalition of President Alberto Fernández bracing for heavy losses in both houses of parliament. The result will likely reflect the outcome of last September's primary elections, where the president's allies got clobbered by the center-right opposition. Since then, Fernández has caved to pressure from his powerful VP, former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (no relation), to double down on social spending and government intervention in the economy to curb skyrocketing inflation. But it hasn't worked: Fernández has capped prices on a whopping 1,432 products, yet annual inflation remains over 50 percent. Without a senate majority, it'll be very hard for the president to get much done in the second half of his term at the worst possible time: economists fear Argentina may stiff the IMF on part of the $45 billion it owes early next year. Another default could lead to a run on banks like in 2001, when the country suffered one of its worst financial crises ever. With presidential elections not on the horizon for another two years, buckle up for a lot of political instability until then.
What We're Watching: California's governor faces the heat, worrying signs for Argentina's president, a Malaysian deal
The world's fifth largest economy votes: Voters in the US state of California will vote Tuesday on whether to fire the state's Democratic Governor, Gavin Newsom, and replace him with someone else. Some 46 candidates have put their names on the ballot to take the governor's mansion from Newsom, the former San Francisco mayor who has been broadly criticized for his pandemic policies — in particular his decision to keep many public schools closed last year, as well as dining out at an exclusive restaurant while telling Californians to stay home. But while the recall effort initially had steam, low projected turnout and an uninspiring group of replacement options — including right wing shock-jock Larry Elder and Caitlyn Jenner of Kardashian fame — mean that Newsom will likely survive. The vote has national implications: there is increasing pressure on the state's 88-year old Senator Diane Feinstein to retire before her term is up in 2024, and it would be up to the governor to appoint her replacement. With the Senate currently divided 50-50, a Republican governor could flip control back to the GOP. But that's a long-shot: Republicans only make up 24 percent of the electorate, compared to 35 percent in 2003, the last time the state recalled its Democratic governor. Who took over after that? The Terminator.
Bad signs for Argentina's president: The coalition of President Alberto Fernandez got walloped over the weekend in mandatory primaries that are considered a dry-run for November's mid-term elections. His leftwing Peronist ticket pulled just 31 percent of the vote, almost ten points behind the center-right opposition Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) list, and won in just 8 of Argentina's 24 provinces. The result isn't hugely surprising, considering how bad things are in Argentina at the moment. Inflation is flirting with 50 percent, and Argentina has one of the highest death rates per 100,000 in the world. If these results repeat in November, Fernandez would lose his Senate majority, vastly complicating his ability to govern in the second half of his term. At the same time, his powerful Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who was president from 2007 to 2015, is breathing down his neck, pushing for more economic interventions in order to boost support in the election. With Argentina already reeling from a debt crisis, that could prove disastrous. Argentina has lurched from crisis to crisis in recent years, with big political swings to match. Indeed, the next two months could be particularly perilous.
A big deal in Malaysia: The country's ruling coalition has signed an agreement with the opposition, in a move that boost's the teetering prime minister, and could stabilize politics for a bit after a tumultuous few years. In August, current PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob became the third prime minister in as many years, with a majority so slim that the country's monarch called for a vote of confidence to prove that he was really in charge. The new agreement, meant to shore up political stability while the country grapples with the pandemic, grants the opposition a say on all legislation and matters of economic recovery, and lowers the voting age from 21 to 18. No date has been set for the confidence vote, but that will be the next big milestone for Ismail Sabri, who will now try and pass the 2022 national budget to boost confidence. A strong showing will put him in the clear for a while, and give Malaysia a chance to dig out of the pandemic without further political upheavals.