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US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.
What We're Watching: Tsai in California, Lukashenko in Moscow, no Easter in Nicaragua
After US speaker meets Taiwan's prez, all eyes on China
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday met Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in California, the last stop of her trip to the Americas. McCarthy is the most senior US official to meet a Taiwanese leader on American soil since 1979, when Washington officially recognized Beijing – rather than Taipei – as “China.”
The meeting was a bold move by the Taiwanese leader, given that China considers Taiwan part of its territory and is triggered by even the slightest hint of Americans normalizing ties with Taipei. And it definitely won’t help improve the US-China relationship. But so far, Beijing’s response has been more meow than growl.
Ahead of the tête-à-tête in California, China sent fighter jets and naval vessels near the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. Beijing followed that up by dispatching an aircraft carries and announcing spot inspections of Taiwanese ships.
Still, it wasn’t quite the massive show of force put on by China right after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August. Blame bad timing: Xi Jinping likely doesn’t want to freak out French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who Xi is hosting this week at a very awkward time for China-EU relations.
Lukashenko’s delicate dance
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko went to Moscow on Wednesday to pay a visit to his ally (?), friend (?), overlord (?), and partner Vladimir Putin. Whenever these two meet, Lukashenko must tread carefully. Since December 1999, Russia and Belarus have been part of a “Union State” meant to deepen economic and defense cooperation between the two former Soviet countries.
But now Putin, frustrated by a war gone wrong, is nudging Lukashenko toward further integration steps that appear to expand Russian power. Lukashenko has good reason to fear that full “integration” would allow giant Russia to swallow little Belarus whole. But he also can’t resist too aggressively, because he has faced pro-democracy protests at home that might have brought down his regime had Putin not come to his rescue.
For this reason, Lukashenko must continue a delicate dance. He allows Russia to use his country as a staging ground for war on Ukraine, and as a location for the Kremlin’s tactical nuclear weapons too, but he still resists Putin’s pressure to send Belarusian troops to join the fight.
Nicaraguan strongman cancels Easter
The Nicaraguan government is banning Holy Week street celebrations as it cracks down on critics amid a spat with the influential Catholic church.
Tensions have simmered between the church and strongman President Daniel Ortega since the anti-government protests of 2018, when his government accused clerics — who were seeking to mediate between the two sides — of supporting the streets. And amid a sweeping crackdown on dissent, Bishop Ronaldo Alvarez, a prominent Ortega critic, was sentenced in February to a 26-year prison sentence for treason, inflaming tensions in the fiercely Catholic country.
Last month, the government suspended ties with the Holy See altogether after Pope Francis called the government of Ortega – a former Marxist guerilla who somewhat unconvincingly reinvented himself as a man of faith 15 years ago – a ‘crude dictatorship’ and compared its repression of Catholics to Nazi Germany.
As Easter Sunday approaches in Nicaragua, it’s fair to ask: WWJD?
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus.
Putin’s muscle flex in Belarus
Russia’s Vladimir Putin is scrambling this week to project strength and confidence in support of a war effort in Ukraine that’s gone terribly wrong. Russian forces have continued their artillery strikes against critical infrastructure targets across Ukraine, temporarily knocking out heat and electricity for civilians in many Ukrainian cities. On Monday, Putin visited Minsk to meet with an ally, Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko.
The trip appeared designed to raise Ukrainian and Western fears that Russian soldiers stationed in Belarus – perhaps accompanied by Belarussian troops – will again cross the border to take another shot at capturing Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, most likely in the spring as ground conditions improve. Russian and Belarussian fighters have again engaged in joint military drills, helping Putin to argue that he does have allies in his war in Ukraine, even if Lukashenko has so far resisted Russian pressure to formally join the war.
Putin’s latest show of strength is intended for three separate audiences. He hopes to weaken Ukrainian resistance by signaling that Russia remains fully committed to punishing Ukraine until its leaders surrender. That message is also meant to boost the arguments of those politicians in Europe and the United States who insist that long-term support for Ukraine is too expensive for their governments in a time of hardship at home. Finally, it’s designed to persuade Russians that Putin has the will to ensure their military will win in the end.
But Putin’s latest muscle flex is unlikely to make much difference. So far, Ukrainian authorities have demonstrated an ability to blunt the force of Russian attacks on infrastructure by intercepting some Russian missiles and drones and also by restoring electricity and heat relatively quickly following each major attack. There’s no sign these artillery attacks have moved Ukraine’s government toward concessions of any kind. There is no reason yet to expect NATO, the EU, or the Biden administration will hedge their bets on Ukraine’s continued resistance.
Nor is there any indication that Putin has managed to change Lukashenko’s mind about committing Belarussian troops to the fight. Even if Belarus joined the battle, the effect would be simply to pull more Ukrainian troops from other regions to repel another attack from the north. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based military think tank, argued in a recent report that a new Russian attack on Kyiv from Belarus is “extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.” Russian forces have been badly degraded since their first run on the capital, and Ukrainians are now much better prepared to play defense.
In short, Putin’s war on Ukraine grinds on with no game-changing breakthrough in sight.
For more on Putin’s attempt to push Lukashenko into a more active role against Ukraine, watch former Swedish PM Carl Bildt’s Europe in 60 Seconds.
A Belarusian soldier during a shooting exercise.
What We’re Watching: War spillovers, Biden bolstering allies, Modi’s free-trade rethink, Russian defection
Ukraine war spillover
As President Joe Biden meets with EU and NATO leaders this week, they’ll be talking about how best to prevent the war in Ukraine from spilling across borders. But Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will have much to say about that, particularly as he tries to punish Ukraine’s Western backers for making the Russian military’s job in Ukraine much tougher and for waging war on Russia’s economy via sanctions. On Wednesday, Putin announced that “unfriendly countries” that want to buy Russian natural gas must pay for it in rubles. That would force Europeans hungry for Russian energy to boost Russia’s sagging currency, which would help Putin finance his war in Ukraine. There is already much behind-the-scenes discussion in Europe on how to avoid that problem.
But war spillover can move in multiple directions. In August 2020, Alexander Lukashenko secured a sixth term as president of Belarus by rigging an election. Fed-up protesters took to the streets, and a cycle of protest and repression plunged the country into turmoil until backing from Putin allowed Lukashenko to crush most dissent. Plenty of Belarusians, including tens of thousands who fled to Ukraine and other countries, would still love to send Lukashenko packing. Thanks to the Belarusian president’s willingness to allow Russia to use his country to launch attacks in Ukraine — and the possibility he would contribute troops to Russia’s effort — lots of Ukrainians want him gone too. If the war in Ukraine is fought to a stalemate, and if continuing flows of Western weapons allow Ukrainians to launch a sustainable military insurgency against Russian occupiers, it’s entirely possible that militancy will expand across the border into Belarus. That means Ukrainian and Belarusian fighters working in coordination, with arms flowing from Ukraine into Belarus. That would threaten Lukashenko’s pro-Russian government on a scale he has never faced.
Biden bolsters trade ties ahead of Europe talks
Ahead of President Joe Biden’s meetings in Europe today, the US announced a new trade accord with the UK. The deal will lift US tariffs on British steel and aluminum for “historically-based sustainable volumes,” and Brits will remove their own tariffs on American whiskey, motorcycles, and tobacco. It's the latest effort by the Biden administration to mend ties with US allies — and keep them united with Washington against Russia — by scrapping tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump (although Canada still resents Biden-approved American subsidies for electric vehicles under the USMCA). The agreement will require UK steel companies that want to export to the US to audit possible influence by China and share their findings with American authorities. Why? To prevent cheap Chinese steel — which remains under Trump-era US tariffs that Biden has kept in place — from finding a backdoor into the American market without paying duties.
Modi’s trade policy U-turn
In another trade policy shift, India’s famously protectionist PM Narendra Modi has been quietly rekindling talks to sign free trade agreements with a handful of countries. After inking an FTA with the United Arab Emirates last month, Modi is now set to sign another trade deal with Australia in the coming weeks. Similar talks are in the pipeline with Canada, Israel, the UK, and the EU at a time when India is eager to attract foreign investment to help the economy recover from the pandemic. But India remains reticent to join big regional trade accords, such as the RCEP — mainly because it includes rival China — or the revamped TPP, which China also wants to join. Also, Modi will be wary of any trade negotiations that could hurt Indian agriculture — even more so after caving last year to widespread protests by repealing laws aimed at liberalizing the farming sector. Upshot: Modi is no longer as protectionist as he was when he came into office, but don't expect him to turn into a born-again free-trader.
What We’re Ignoring: Russia’s first elite defection
Anatoly Chubais was once one of the most powerful men in Russia. In the 1990s, he was a principal architect of the country’s post-Soviet transition to capitalism, with all the opportunity, chaos, wealth, and resentment it entailed. On Wednesday, Chubais, who was most recently serving as Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for “sustainability,” fled the country because of his opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Observers have rightly pointed out that Chubais is the highest-ranking official to defect over the war so far. But it’s not quite as big a deal as it seems. Chubais is part of an economy-minded, technocratic wing of the Russian elite that has almost zero influence over Putin’s war and peace decisions. So his departure will hardly alter the Kremlin’s calculus about Ukraine — that would only happen if people with epaulettes, judo uniforms, or telltale brooches start heading for the border. That said, Chubais’ fate will be watched closely by one group of people: others in Russia who may be considering defection and who want to see how he’s treated abroad. Will he be welcomed as a defector, or ostracized for having served Putin for so long?Lukashenko attends a press conference following a meeting with Putin in the Kremlin.
Will Belarus join the war?
Russia invaded Ukraine entirely on its own. Only a handful of authoritarian states have (diplomatically) defended Vladimir Putin’s war. One of them was Belarus, whose President Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Russian forces to attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory and passed a referendum to enable placing Russian nukes on Belarusian soil.
But Putin seems to be pushing Belarus to do more — perhaps even enter the war as a combatant, which would put Lukashenko in a very tough spot.
There’s a backstory here. Eighteen months ago, Europe’s last dictator was threatened by mass street protests over his sham re-election. When Lukashenko called Putin for help, the Russian leader obliged with economic and (some) military support.
Since then, Moscow has been a reliable wingman for Minsk throughout its tussles with the EU. Belarus was accused of hijacking an EU-bound aircraft to nab a Belarusian dissident and of creating a border crisis by pushing non-EU migrants into Poland as payback for EU sanctions.
Lukashenko owes Putin, who might soon call in the favor. But will the Belarusian president agree to fight in Ukraine?
Not if he wants to keep his job, according to Franak Viačorka, senior adviser to Belarus’ opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who claimed victory over Lukashenko in the August 2020 election. The president “understands that every step he’s making can cost him the presidency.”
Belarus entering the war could be game over for Lukashenko, whom Viačorka says is hanging on by a thread. He knows that it would be so unpopular among Belarusians that it might spark an uprising and even a coup to remove him from power.
In a poll taken before the war, a majority opposed sending Belarusian soldiers to fight against their southern neighbor, with which they share many cultural and historic ties. After the invasion, thousands defied possible arrest by taking to the streets of Minsk to protest the war.
The Belarusian diaspora has been very active in fundraising and sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Hundreds of Belarusians who fled the country after Lukashenko’s post-election crackdown have gone to Ukraine as volunteer foreign fighters to defend key cities like Odessa.
“Belarusians inside and outside the country protested Lukashenko’s involvement in the war,” says Tatsiana Kulakevich, a Belarus expert at the University of South Florida. “Lukashenko has jeopardized the image of the Belarusian people by providing Belarus’ territory as a stage for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
Moreover, she adds, Lukashenko is already considered an aggressor by the West, which has responded by sanctioning Belarus along with Russia. This pressure will continue whether or not Belarusian troops cross the Ukrainian border.
But Lukashenko is feeling the heat from Putin. Viačorka says he’s walking a tightrope between returning Putin’s favor and staying out of the war. So far, hosting unsuccessful Russia-Ukraine peace talks has neither got Moscow off his back nor placated the West and his own people.
What’s more, the two experts agree that Lukashenko is in a very fragile position. He doesn’t have as firm a grip over Belarusian media as Putin does in Russia. The Belarusian elite and the security forces are not entirely on his side. And his only leverage with Moscow is Belarus’ geography.
Lukashenko barely survived the last revolt against him, and Viačorka thinks Putin will only continue supporting him as long as the Belarusian strongman remains, for lack of a better term, strong.
Does that mean Russia might then decide to make a move on Belarus too? Probably not, says Kulakevich. Russia doesn’t need to annex Belarus because Lukashenko already offers what Putin wants: “a puppet state that he can control.”Migrants walk towards the Bruzgi-Kuznica Bialostocka border crossing in an attempt to cross the Belarusian-Polish border in the Grodno Region, Belarus November 15, 2021.
What We’re Watching: EU vs everyone, Austria vs the unvaccinated, India vs smog, Barbados vs real world
The EU targets "everyone!" The EU on Monday unanimously agreed to impose fresh sanctions on "everyone involved" in bringing migrants to the Belarus-Poland border, where a diplomatic and humanitarian crisis continues as thousands of asylum-seekers shiver in makeshift camps. Brussels says Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has deliberately created this crisis to strike back against existing EU sanctions that were imposed in response to his sham re-election last year and his hijacking of a RyanAir flight this summer. Reports show that Belarus loosened visa restrictions for migrants — largely from Iraq — to serve as a transit point for migrants hoping to cross the EU border to apply for asylum. Details of the new sanctions aren't yet decided, but they are likely to target political officials, travel agencies, and airlines. Lukashenko has vowed to fight back, but he won't cut off the Russian gas flows that traverse his country on the way to Europe — Vladimir Putin quickly slapped down that possibility after Lukashenko raised it over the weekend. The question remains: will EU sanctions change Belarus' behavior?
Austria's lockdown of the unvaccinated. Beginning Monday, unvaccinated Austrians will be required to stay in their homes for all but essential outings or face a fine of 500 euros ($572). The move comes as Austria suffers one of the highest rates of new COVID infections in Europe. The country currently has a vaccination rate of 65 percent, which lags behind most of Western Europe but exceeds levels in Eastern Europe, which is experiencing an even harsher wave of the virus. The Austrian measures will last for 10 days and be enforced by police spot checks. The unvaccinated were already prohibited from entering restaurants, but the government says the additional restrictions are necessary to boost vaccination rates and head off a crunch at ICUs. Critics — including the right-wing Freedom Party — say the policy is discriminatory and violates Austria's constitution.
A different sort of lockdown in India. India's Supreme Court called on Monday for an immediate lockdown of Delhi, the country's capital. But this time, the threat to public health comes not from COVID but from the toxic smog that regularly pollutes the city's air. The Delhi government has pronounced itself "ready to take steps like complete lockdown," while calling on the governments of neighboring regions to do the same. There will be no in-person classes in schools this week, government officials will work from home, and private businesses are urged to do the same. The city's many construction sites will also remain shut down for three days. Delhi suffers from the exhaust produced by millions of vehicles, crop-stubble burning by farmers, coal-fired plants on the outskirts of town, and the open burning of garbage. By some measures, India is home to 13 of the world's 14 most polluted cities, and in 2019 air pollution was blamed for more than a million deaths.
Metaverse diplomacy. What happens if you run into trouble when visiting a foreign country? You call your embassy or consulate, of course. But what if you're in the Metaverse, a catch-all phrase for the virtual and augmented reality world Mark Zuckerberg wants you to spend a lot of time in? Well, you're in luck if you're a citizen of Barbados, the first country to open an actual embassy in this virtual world. The tiny Caribbean island nation plans to build and purchase digital "land," offer e-visas to visit virtual Barbados, and develop virtual transport to move avatars to and fro. What this all means in the real world is unclear, but crypto bros are very excited about it, and we don't want to burst their bubble.Hundreds of migrants camp at the Belarus side of the border with Poland near Kuznica Bialostocka, Poland, in this photograph released by the Polish Defence Ministry, November 10, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Eastern Europe border crisis, US-China climate pledge, Bolsonaro’s a centrist now
Migrants suffer as Eastern European deadlock deepens. The stalemate at the Polish-Belarusian border continues, with reports that several migrants languishing in freezing temperatures in the forest have recently frozen to death while waiting for asylum. The EU says Minsk is using the migrants as a political weapon against Brussels international heavyweights have intervened in recent days to try t chart a path forward. German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who's just days away from her retirement — has been appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin to use his sway with Minsk to resolve the dispute. Putin, who's no doubt enjoying his clout and leverage, says that Brussels needs to negotiate directly with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko – but that has been a non-starter so far because the EU has cut off communication with the strongman since his rigged re-election last year. Feeling emboldened by the standoff, Lukashenko doubled down Thursday, saying that if the bloc slaps fresh sanctions on him, he would cut off the flow of gas that flows from Russia to Western Europe via Belarusian territory. That's a scary prospect indeed for a Europe which is already dealing with painful gas shortages as winter approaches.
US and China announce a climate "deal." It's hard to get the US and China to agree on anything these days, but climate is one area where cooperation has always seemed at least possible. In that spirit, both sides announced on Wednesday a rare joint pledge to work together on slashing carbon emissions. The statement itself was light on details on how they'll actually do just that, but it's still a big deal. Why? For one thing, the two countries are the world's top polluters, accounting for just under half of all global emissions. For another, as the two largest economies, the US and China can muster the financial muscle needed to de-carbonize themselves and help the rest of the world do it too. Even more importantly, only the US and China together have the political power to get other countries to get on board with their plans. But given that there's a host of other prickly issues in the broader US-China competition, the biggest threat to future US-China cooperation on climate is how far apart they are on pretty much everything else.
Bolsonaro the centrist? After two years without belonging to any political party, Brazil's anti-establishment, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro has decided to join the Liberal Party, one of the small parties that form the establishment Centrão ("Big Center") coalition he's been courting for over a year. Bolsonaro — who quit a right-wing party back in 2019 and has since then failed to set up his own — hopes that the centrist platform will help him appeal to more moderate voters in next year's presidential election. The president also needs political cover from multiple open probes against him in the courts and Congress, including a criminal investigation in the Senate for mishandling COVID. But mostly he can't actually run for re-election without being backed by a party, big or small. With his approval rating in the tank, Bolsonaro faces increasingly long re-election odds against his likely competitor and biggest nemesis, former president Lula da Silva.
Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
What's the nature of the migration crisis between Belarus and Poland?
Well, it's not a migration crisis, really. It's a question of the weaponization of the misery of people. Lukashenko wants to, sort of, exert pressure on Poland and on the European Union because of the sanctions that are imposed upon him for his undemocratic behavior. And that is importing miserable people from the Middle East, flying them into Minsk, probably at great expense to them, and then effectively forcing them over the border to Poland. That has to be stopped, and a number of measures are underway to do that. It's really an unacceptable way of exploiting people.
What's going to be the effect of Vice President Kamala Harris' visit to Paris?
Well, everyone goes to Paris. There's been a lot of effort to smooth over tensions between Paris and Washington, after the Australia submarine, messy handling of that particular deal. I think it will succeed. I think relationship between Paris and Washington are better than they look at the moment.
Polish service members and police officers are seen behind a barbed wire fence as hundreds of migrants gather on the Belarusian-Polish border in an attempt to cross it in the Grodno region, Belarus November 9, 2021.
The EU’s big Eastern problems
Let's take a trip along the eastern fringes of the EU today, where two big problems are brewing at a time when Brussels seems particularly unable to respond effectively.
Our first stop is along the frigid and bleak border of Belarus, where thousands of migrants, mostly from the Middle East, have been trying since June to cross into EU member states Lithuania and Poland.
In recent days, tensions at these borders have escalated significantly. The migrants, allegedly driven forward by Belarusian police, are trying to break through Polish border fences. Lithuania, which initially let some of the migrants in, has now declared a state of emergency. The Poles, meanwhile, have sent some 12,000 troops to the border to stop them, and Polish officials accuse Belarusian troops of firing warning shots in the air to intimidate their Polish counterparts.
European officials say Belarus is using the freezing and malnourished migrants as pawns in a diplomatic showdown with the EU, which last year imposed sanctions on strongman president Alexander Lukashenko over his sham 2020 re-election and human rights abuses, as well as his hijacking of a Ryanair flight last May. But even if that's true, EU critics point out, the Europeans had months to prepare a coherent plan to manage this border problem — and failed to act. An ongoing spat between EU officials and the Polish government over rule of law issues has made matters worse: the Poles haven't asked EU border authorities for help.
Lukashenko, for his part, says Poland's troop movements pose a threat to Belarus and blames the EU and US for the instability that is pushing people from the Middle East to seek refuge in Europe in the first place.
The EU, caught off guard, is now threatening to slap even more sanctions on Lukashenko's regime and to punish the airlines that are ferrying would-be migrants to Minsk from countries like Iraq, the UAE, Lebanon, and Turkey. That could raise hackles in EU member Ireland, where many of the companies that lease planes to the airlines are based.
But more sanctions don't look likely to change Belarusian behavior. Particularly when Lukashenko's old frenemy Vladimir Putin is eagerly egging him on. And while the EU has managed other refugee problems by simply paying neighboring countries — like Libya or Turkey — to prevent migrants from reaching EU borders, that's not an option here: you can't send money to a government you are sanctioning.
Now, let's fly a thousand miles southeast, to the marchlands of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, where the Kremlin has recently begun (again) massing troops along a Ukrainian "border" that isn't much of a boundary. It's more a porous line of demarcation administered by Russia and the Kremlin-backed separatists who control parts of eastern Ukraine.
Moscow has deployed some 90,000 troops to the region, raising lingering fears about Russia's broader designs on Ukraine. The US calls the buildup "unusual." And it's alarming enough that CIA director Bill Burns reportedly discussed the matter with Putin in Moscow last week.
Recall that back in April Russia brought as many as 150,000 troops into the area, before slowly drawing them back. What's Moscow up to this time?
To be clear, it's hard to imagine that the Kremlin intends to invade (and occupy) a significant piece of Ukraine. The cost in Russian money and lives would not be popular at home.
But Putin likes to rattle that sabre every so often, in part to remind Europeans and Americans that he can. And lately Russia is feeling particularly prickly: Moscow cut ties with NATO last month and is upset about US warships sailing around the Black Sea. The recent delivery of $60 million worth of US military aid to Ukraine didn't go over well in the Kremlin either.
With winter coming, it's actually a great moment for Russia to flex a little muscle. Europe is currently mired in an energy price crisis caused by a shortage of natural gas. The one country that could help alleviate that pressure is, of course, major exporter Russia. But the Kremlin — which is still under a raft of sanctions in response to its 2014 invasion of Ukraine — has refused to open the taps until Russia is treated better by Brussels.
Upshot: Once again, some of the EU's most intractable problems rise in the East. And things aren't going to get any easier once experienced crisis manager Angela Merkel retires next month.