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President Joe Biden, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a trilateral meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 15, 2024.
Japan, US, South Korea unite against North Korea-Russia Pact
The next day, Japan’s foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, met his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, in Kyiv, to reaffirm Tokyo’s support for Ukraine and discuss further sanctions against Russia. Sybiha accused Pyongyang of feeding Moscow’s war machine in exchange for access to Russian military program, including missiles and nuclear weapons. Then on Sunday, Japan announced it will begin holding regular joint exercises with US troops in Australia starting in 2025, as those three countries strengthen their security ties amid growing threats from China.
Xi arriving at APEC
Trump’s tariff shadow looms over APEC summit
At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru, this week, the specter of Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs is looming large over the proceedings.
Trump, who believes import duties are a way to gain leverage over adversaries while spurring domestic manufacturing, has threatened tariffs as high as 60% against China and universal 10%-20% tariffs for other US trade partners. He has also appointed a series of China hawks to his Cabinet.
China is preparing aggressive countermeasures, including using an “anti-foreign sanctions law,” which allows Beijing to match measures taken by other countries and to place US companies on an “unreliable entity list” for foreign companies that have national interests. It is also expected to implement export controls on resources like rare earth minerals and lithium, which are critical components in modern technologies.
Joe Biden will attend the summit on Friday and Saturday, and his message of America’s desire to cooperate on trade, climate change, and poverty is likely to fall on deaf ears as members prepare for Trump 2.o. On Saturday, Biden — who kept most of Trump’s China tariffs in place and is expected to further tighten semiconductor restrictions before leaving office — will meet with President Xi Jinping. But with just a few weeks left of his presidency, expectations are low that much will come from the meeting.
“The reality is that Biden and Xi made meaningful progress in at least stabilizing the decline in the bilateral relationship, if not improving it,” says Eurasia Group’s China director, Lauren Gloudeman. “But the biggest initial risk once Trump takes office is that all of those channels that were restored for bilateral communication under Biden will most likely be frozen as soon as the new administration comes in.”
We will also be watching to see if Biden meets with Taiwan’s representative on the sidelines. Taiwan’s fate is uncertain under Trump, and Gloudeman says it’s unclear “whether he’s going to seek to pressure Taiwan to increase its own defense spending, or whether he sees Taiwan as almost a bargaining chip in some kind of broader negotiations with China.”
Sculptures seen on the street before the 31st Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders' Meeting on Nov. 12, 2024 in Lima, Peru.
Viewpoint: What to expect from this year’s APEC
Global leaders are descending upon Peru this week for the 2024 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum amid an increasingly conflict-ridden world — and just a week after American voters reelected Donald Trump to the US presidency. The year’s meetings are focused on critical economic and environmental challenges, as well as the need to bolster bilateral and multilateral ties in the Asia-Pacific region. With outgoing President Joe Biden meeting up with Chinese President Xi Jinping at APEC, GZERO reached out to Eurasia Group expert Gabriela Vasquez Madueno for her take on what to watch at the event.
What is APEC, and why does it matter?
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, a forum of 21 economies from across the Pacific Rim focused on promoting sustainable economic growth, trade, and investment in the region, is convening its Leaders’ Meeting this week in Peru. The gathering brings together economies that represent nearly 40% of the world’s population, almost half of global trade, and approximately 60% of global GDP.
While APEC’s formal economic impact remains limited, it is still significant as a platform for diplomatic engagement and bilateral and multilateral cooperation. It provides space for growing economies such as Indonesia and Mexico and major powers like the United States and China to engage and collaborate on issues ranging from climate change and sustainable development to the digital economy.
APEC takes a consensus-based approach, which means all members have an equal voice, and it relies on voluntary commitments and capacity building – rather than treaties – to achieve its goals. So, again, its impact remains limited. APEC, however, is a useful forum to build consensus on topics that may, in the future, become binding commitments in other fora or in trade agreements. It’s also worth noting that APEC is one of few multilateral forums, apart from the WTO, where Taiwan is recognized as a separate economy. This unique status allows Taiwan to participate in global economic discussions and engage with other member economies, including China.
What are the themes for this year’s APEC meetings?
This year’s theme, “People, Business, Prosperity,” focuses on finding innovative solutions to the region’s most pressing challenges. Resilient growth has been a priority. The summit this week aims to promote inclusive and interconnected growth, address the informal economy by utilizing digital platforms for better economic integration, and prioritize resilient growth in the face of global challenges like climate change and food security.
Members are working to facilitate trade and investment in the region by contributing to the development of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific agenda. They have also defined low-carbon hydrogen policy frameworks to support regional energy transitions and initiatives to prevent and reduce food loss and waste. Participants are putting forward several initiatives to promote sustainable and resilient finance, as well as an exchange of policies aimed at utilizing digital platforms to integrate the informal economy and boost economic integration.
What are the main challenges of APEC?
The recent US election and the pending potential shift in foreign policy under Donald Trump has cast a long shadow on proceedings this week. As such, the US has taken a less active role in the present APEC event, as the next administration will prioritize bilateral discussions over multilateral ones. There will be little room for further integration considering the change of administration, as it is believed the Trump administration will prefer negotiating directly with individual states, rather than working through regional groups. Also, Trump’s threat of tariffs will cause APEC economies to fret.
This future shift creates uncertainties within the forum and potentially undermines its effectiveness in the coming years.
Additionally, the growing geopolitical rivalry between the US and China further complicates discussions and potentially impacts the overall agenda. Other member economies are finding themselves caught in the middle, forced to navigate the competing interests of these two major powers. Beijing, for its part, will use the summit to build its attraction among non-US member countries, some of which are feeling anxious about a Trump presidency, by offering unilateral concessions over tariffs and visas, among other measures.
So this event is a crucial test of the prospects for regional cooperation and global economic stability given today’s geopolitical tensions.
What to watch from this year’s APEC
The 2024 APEC Economic Leaders' Week is hosting several significant bilateral and multilateral meetings. Key leaders, including US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, are going to be on hand for the event. Biden and Xi are set to meet at APEC, a White House source said Wednesday, and both men will then head to Brazil for the Group of 20 summit.
Xi’s inauguration of the $3.5 billion Chancay port – the largest project China has invested in Latin America in recent years – during his visit to Peru reflects China’s presence in the region. This poses a challenge for the White House in South America, where China's geopolitical influence has continued to grow. Xi, with Trump 2.0 looming, will likely emphasize Beijing’s ability to serve as the region’s free-trade champ, presenting China as a counterweight to the tariff controls being threatened by Trump.
All eyes will be on any potential meetings or informal conversations between US and Taiwanese officials, particularly between US President Joe Biden and high-level representatives from Taiwan, such as the head of TSMC.
In addition to political leaders, several prominent CEOs are in attendance at APEC. These include Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, Karan Bhatia of Google, and Shou Zi Chew of TikTok. The latter’s presence is particularly interesting given the ongoing risk of being federally banned in the US because of its resistance to selling itself.
We’ll be watching for any major developments or announcements from APEC – and for signs of the forum’s potential strength in the years to come.
Podcast: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Ian Bremmer is in Tokyo, Japan, to check in on America’s “pivot to Asia.” How’s that going? Given that neither Ukraine nor Israel is located in the Asia Pacific, it is not so great!
In 2011, then-President Obama announced on a trip to Australia that US foreign policy would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to curb a rising China. Twelve years later, we’re still pivoting. But if we ever do get there, we will have to take Japan, one of our closest regional allies, along with us. To talk about US-Japan relations, as well as a whole host of sticky policy issues, foreign and domestic, Ian is joined by US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. Ian will also get his take on the Israel-Hamas war and the fighting in Ukraine.
US CEOs too influential on China policy, says Rahm Emanuel
US CEOs are too cozy with Beijing, says US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel.
At the APEC summit last November in San Francisco, heads of state and diplomats from nations in the Asia-Pacific met to address a wide array of strategic interests and challenges. But no other meeting was as closely watched as that between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As successful as that meeting may have been on a PR level (at least according to the delegations of each leader), one man present took special note of what happened afterward. US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, told Ian Bremmer about that summit during an exclusive interview in the latest episode of GZERO World, filmed at the Ambassador's residence in Tokyo, Japan.
"President Xi goes to have a meeting with American CEOs who give him a standing ovation, though he hasn't yet said anything," recounted Ambassador Emanuel. "The President of the United States goes to an event, and all the heads of state are there. That tells you about alliances, that tells you about the interests of China."
Bremmer then noted that it also tells you something about the interests of American CEOs. to which Emanuel responded: "I think the American CEOs are way too influential in American foreign policy in this region, way too influential."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
When Biden met Xi (and what's going on with the US and China) | TED
Better or Worse? What happened when two frenemies -- China's President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden -- met at the APEC Summit in San Francisco? Did the two superpowers move closer to conflict or actually get something positive done? What will make a difference? Ian Bremmer was in San Francisco and took in the big event, and he sits down for an exclusive conversation with GZERO's new partner, TED, to explain what it all means.
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President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, in California, on Nov. 15, 2023.
Last dance with China?
Slide to the right.
Slide to the left.
And … pivot.
The diplomatic dance, dubbed “the pivot” by President Barack Obama back in 2011, is all the rage again in San Francisco, where 21 countries have gathered for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), and this year everyone is watching one dysfunctional couple on the dance floor: Biden and Xi.
The original Obama pivot was about increasing US influence in the Asia Pacific — read: pushing back on growing Chinese influence, military might, and Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative – and it also meant pivoting away from places like the Middle East. So, choreographically speaking, it was a step from the Middle East to a bigger step to the Far East, as it were, and it caused friction with China. But the steps are more complicated today.
With the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war raging, the US can’t just pivot away from its old stomping grounds, and yet it can’t pivot away from China either. China is similarly stuck. It’s suffering from slow growth and wants to make sure the world doesn’t descend into chaotic wars that might screw up its export markets, so it also needs to start dancing with the US again.
That’s why Chinese President Xi Jinping slid on over to San Francisco to meet with President Joe Biden for the second time. They have got to start dancing again. What is the metric of success here? It’s a low bar. Open up lines of communication. Put a floor under the deteriorating relationship. Avoid a war in Taiwan. Get back to business.
On the plus side, they reestablished military-to-military communications, which is important in a world where Chinese planes and ships are dangerously buzzing US and other NATO military assets in international waters near Taiwan. A bad accident could trigger a nightmare scenario, so a direct line matters. And they made progress on stopping the deadly fentanyl export problem.
But they didn’t get much done on rules around AI, semiconductor exports, or efforts to help stop the war in the Middle East by leaning on Iran. And Taiwan remains a festering diplomatic wound. So this ain’t no thaw. Oh, and, Biden called Xi a “dictator” immediately after their sit-down, so …
Still, the fact that they met and talked is a huge win.
An even bigger sign of warming relations came not from the lead dancer but the chorus line: Top US CEOs from companies like Apple and BlackRock gave Xi a warm round of applause and ate with him while Xi lapped it up. And why shouldn’t he? Xi, after all, is desperate to boost foreign direct investment, which is in its worst shape in 25 years. Show Xi the money.
If nothing else, the summit showed that the economic links between the two countries — ChiMerica — are too critical to toss away. So Biden gets a small win here.
Now, let’s pivot to Canada, a much lonelier figure on the dance floor.
Justin Trudeau has terrible relations with China and is not meeting with Xi at the summit, which means his Indo-Pacific strategy is really in shambles. It's not entirely his fault. China has kidnapped Canadians and interfered with elections, according to the government. Not exactly a great incentive to warm things up. Still, Canada can't ignore China.
I spoke with a senior source from the prime minister’s office who would not say much about what they wanted to accomplish at APEC with China, which is the main game here. All I got was a short note saying, “We need to engage where we need to, on issues like climate, and challenge where we have to. Our focus is continuing to deepen relations and trade, and trade is up 22% with APEC members.”
OK, but trade with that region is up globally, and it doesn't address the key question: What leverage does Canada have with China?
“Canada lacks credibility in the Indo-Pacific region, where, despite its new Indo-Pacific strategy and membership of the CPTPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership], it is seen as insufficiently and inconsistently engaged,” my colleague Graeme Thompson told me. “In the context of the geopolitical competition between the US and China, Beijing sees Ottawa as petulant and weak. The comparison with Australia, which is a serious military power for its size with a real, sustained, and long-term diplomatic and strategic focus on the region, is illuminating — and not flattering to Canada.”
The Australian PM, meanwhile, recently made a visit to China to meet Xi — this despite taking a very hawkish stance and upping its military profile with submarines and alliances like the Quad. And yet, here they are, warming the wires with China. Why? As my colleague says, Australia has paid its military dues in the region, and Canada has not.
In a world of multiple crises, there is no room for single pivots or isolating superpowers. And you can't hold a grudge. That is the reality. There has to be a united democratic front that presses bad actors, rogue actors, and superpowers that are a threat – China being one — to play by the international rules of trade and justice. That club is expensive to join and requires muscling up. That's the Aussie model, and the US likes it. So does the UK.
Biden and the US are signaling that they are pivoting back to the big dance with China. Meanwhile, Canada looks like it is still pivoting away — does that mean Trudeau has had his last dance with China?
Biden & Xi set to agree on regulating military use of AI
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Biden and Xi come together to regulate military use of AI?
I think that's one of the areas that we are going to see a level of cooperation. The Chinese are concerned about, first, the Americans being ahead of them in AI, but secondly, about the fact that this could escalate and spiral into mutually assured destruction quickly, if there isn't a level of transparency. That's very different from the unwillingness of the Chinese to engage in high level military talks, for example, on South China Sea or on Taiwan recently. This is an area that I think will be constructive. I'm glad to see it.
Can the Qatari mediation secure a breakthrough for hostage release in Gaza?
Well, we've been hearing about this for weeks now and it's been imminent and then not happening. Imminent, Not happening. I do think that the level of pressure on Israel, on the Israeli government for not having secured the release of women, of children, I mean, we're talking about a couple of hundred plus civilian hostages living in the most unimaginably horrible environment in Gaza. And I do believe that a breakthrough is pretty likely. We're also going to find out that a lot of these hostages, of course, are already dead. But I'm hopeful and let's keep fingers crossed on that.
Has time run out for Ukraine's counteroffensive?
The much-vaunted counteroffensive, yet it looks like they're not going to be able to take much more territory at this point. And it's hard to imagine they're going to have the military capacity or the troop capacity to do anything else in the foreseeable future. And that means that de facto, the 18% of Ukraine's territory that Russia presently occupies, they're going to continue to occupy going forward. No one's going to accept a partition. No one is going to say that Russia legitimately owns that territory because it is Ukrainian territory. But the reality is unacceptable. And that is where we're going to be an uncomfortable position going forward.
- Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink ›
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- Biden and Xi meet again ›
- Is Israel ready for the nightmare waiting in Gaza? ›
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