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Argentina fans hold a replica trophy as they celebrate winning the World Cup in Buenos Aires.
Hard Numbers: Argentines celebrate, Ghana defaults, EU sets gas price cap, Ramaphosa stays, Nazi typist convicted
2 million: That's how many people showed up in Buenos Aires' iconic Obelisk square to celebrate Argentina's epic victory in the soccer World Cup in Qatar. Greetings from world leaders are still pouring in — even Brazil's President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva set aside their bitter regional rivalry to congratulateLa Albiceleste for its third trophy.
55 billion: Ghana entered a technical default on its debt after suspending debt service payments, confirming the West African nation's worst-ever economic crisis. Ghana is rich in cocoa, gold, and oil but — like many emerging economies — is reeling under a pile of $55 billion owed to mostly foreign creditors.
180: EU member states agreed to cap the wholesale price of natural gas sold across the bloc next year to protect consumers from rising costs due in part to EU countries buying less gas from Russia. Starting Feb. 15, the price will be no higher than 180 euros per megawatt hour if it goes above that amount for three days in a row.
2,476: South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa was reelected as leader of the ruling African National Congress despite a strong-than-expected challenge from Zweli Mkhize, his former health minister. Ramaphosa, who's been in the hot seat over a corruption scandal involving the sale of buffalo at his game reserve, got 2,476 votes from ANC delegates compared to 1,897 for Mkhize.
10,500: Irmgard Furchner, a 97-year-old former typist at a Nazi concentration camp in Germany, was found guilty of contributing to the murder of more than 10,500 people there. Furchner — who tried to escape before her trial started a year ago — is the first civilian woman to be convicted for war crimes at Nazi concentration camps in Germany.Argentina's Leo Messi lifts the World Cup trophy alongside teammates in Qatar.
What We’re Watching: Argentine soccer ecstasy, Chinese COVID cover-up, Brits on strike
World Cup victory brings Argentina much-needed good vibes
In arguably the best final in the tournament's history, Argentina won its third soccer World Cup in Qatar on Sunday, beating France on penalties after drawing 3-3. The nail-biter saw Les Bleus come back twice from behind against La Albiceleste, with GOAT Leo Messi finally lifting the trophy as captain. In a country where soccer is religion, Argentine fans erupted in joy — eager to have something to celebrate and take their minds off the deep economic crisis that has pushed their economy to the brink of collapse, with an annual inflation rate of 100% and poverty rate above 40%. For once, except for a brief controversy involving former President Mauricio Macri, Argentine politicians stopped bickering and united behind the national team. Still, and unlike French President Emmanuel Macron, who went nuts cheering in the stands, Argentina's President Alberto Fernández stayed away so as not to jinx it for Messi & Co. and watched from home instead. But don’t count on a World Cup bump that'll give Fernández a shot at reelection in 2023: His approval rating is now below 20%, and once the party is over, Argentines will return to complaining about the economy.
How many people are dying of COVID in China?
In a throwback to what the rest of the world went through in 2020-2021, COVID is now spreading like wildfire across Chinese cities barely two weeks after the government finally began to relax its zero-COVID policy. Hospitals full? Check. Medicine supplies running low? Check. Three looming COVID waves? Check. But there's a new twist in China: No one knows how bad the outbreaks really are because authorities are not documenting asymptomatic cases and have so far only reported two deaths. So, what's going on? Unofficial estimates suggest that almost 40% of Beijing's population is infected. Meanwhile, the ruling Communist Party has moved away from fiercely defending zero-COVID to almost pretending it never existed — the priority now is to breathe new life into China's economy, battered by pandemic curbs. State media claim that economic growth will accelerate next year thanks to stimulus policies to boost domestic consumption and support key sectors like the property market. The CCP's bargain with the Chinese people has always been economic prosperity in exchange for full political control. But what happens if a million people die?
Strikes galore in the UK
So much for keeping calm and carrying on ... Hundreds of thousands of transport providers, ambulance operators, immigration officials, postal workers, and even Britain’s revered nurses are striking at different dates across the country this holiday season. But the British government has refused to blink, despite there being a strike every day in December — from teachers to civil servants to solicitors. Indeed, PM Rishi Sunak remains dug in. He thinks further deals on wage hikes and other demands are unaffordable and has deployed the military to step in and fill crucial posts — getting pushback for it from senior defense officials. While the PM and his conservative allies are open to talking to the unions, Sunak senses a turnaround: Public support for the strikes seems to be receding. In fact, he’s promised new anti-strike legislation and lambasted a senior union leader as the “Grinch.” But if this carries on into 2023 — and comparisons continue to be made to the “Winter of Discontent” that derailed the Labour government in 1978-79 — Sunak might have to rethink his approach.
Argentina fan celebrates after the World Cup match against Mexico.
World Cup heats up Argentina’s presidential race
When Argentina faces Poland in their do-or-die last group stage match on Wednesday, one thing will be missing at the stadium in Qatar: Argentine politicians.
In the soccer-crazy South American nation, políticos rarely watch the Albiceleste, in person to avoid getting blamed for a loss. Former President Mauricio Macri didn’t get the memo, as he attended — in his new FIFA gig — Argentina’s shocking loss to Saudi Arabia last week. Almost on cue, fans responded by launching an online petition for Macri and his bad juju to stay as far away as possible from GOAT Leo Messi and his crew.
But the brouhaha over Macri is part of a bigger story: The former president has hinted he might want to get his old job back in next year’s election.
Less than a year out from the vote, these are turbulent times in Argentina. Ordinary people are struggling to make ends meet and to figure out how much basic items will actually cost each day, with inflation expected to reach 100% by the end of the year.
The government has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem, but neither IMF austerity to restore confidence in the peso nor direct intervention through price controls have worked to tame runaway inflation. COVID also did a lot of damage, and, to be fair, Argentina’s economic disaster is a legacy of decades of mismanagement, spending beyond its means, and stiffing creditors.
What’s more, no one knows who’ll run in the end. If the center-right Macri throws his hat in the ring, he’ll probably face either deeply unpopular President Alberto Fernández or frenemy VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (no relation), who held the top job from 2007-2015. Both are from the traditional left — especially Cristina, whom Argentines refer to by her first name.
A face-off between candidates like this would be deeply polarizing for a country that has swung back and forth on the ideological spectrum twice in the past decade. Macri — who’s not a shoo-in for the nomination if he runs — is as loved by his supporters and hated by his critics as Cristina is.
The feisty vice president is currently under indictment for corruption, but Cristina will probably never see the inside of a prison cell even if she’s convicted. And she demonstrated that she still owns the streets after surviving a recent assassination attempt.
There's also a domestic soccer angle with Macri. The former president got into politics after winning many trophies as president of Boca Juniors, whose supporters call themselves La mitad más uno (Half plus one) as the most popular team in Buenos Aires and all of Argentina.
You’d think that Boca fans would be all in for the man that led the team to so much success — yet most xeneizes are working-class people who’ve historically voted left and won’t cheer for a rich businessman like Macri. Perhaps that’s why the ex-president has, until now, favored Patricia Bullrich, his popular tough-on-crime former security minister.
Whoever leads the opposition ticket is favored to win. A recent poll shows that two-thirds of Argentinians want the ruling Peronista coalition out of power. That’s consistent with a broader trend in the region: For nearly a decade now, Latin Americans have been consistently voting out incumbents, regardless of their ideology.
One rising presidential hopeful is upstart Javier Milei, an eccentric libertarian economist and TV personality who claims not to have brushed his hair since he was 13. The independent Milei, who’s making waves with populist gimmicks like auctioning off his paycheck, would need strong party backing to go all the way, but his early surge tells you a lot about where Argentine voters’ heads are right now.
One thing is clear — the current president is toast. "Even if Argentina wins the World Cup, it is almost certain that Fernández would lose the election," says Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov. "Whatever politicians like to say, there is no evidence of a relationship between success in sport and politics."
Thought bubble: Although Macri's approval ratings had already started to drop before the 2018 World Cup in Russia, his numbers really began to tank soon after Argentina was eliminated due to the president’s own economic blunders. He never recovered and lost his re-election bid to Fernández.
It sure looks like the incumbent will meet the same fate as his predecessor — if Fernández runs at all.