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Ben Rhodes: US can't say it defends democracy and then cozy up to Saudis, Egypt
For former Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes, if America wants to be taken seriously on promoting democracy abroad, it's time to walk the talk on standing up to autocrats. That means America "cannot have the relationship that we have with a Saudi Arabia or Egypt, period." Catch his interview with Ian Bremmer on the upcoming episode of GZERO World. Check local listings for US public television.
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Podcast: Biden’s recognition of Armenian genocide: ramifications for Turkey, Armenia & the US
Listen: In a special GZERO conversation, Ian Bremmer examines the impact of President Biden's recent statement recognizing Armenian genocide at the hands of Ottoman Empire, an atrocity that began 106 years ago during World War I. What are the ramifications for US/Turkey relations going forward and how will Biden's recognition affect Armenia? Ian Bremmer discusses with two prominent Armenian voices: Varuzhan Nersesyan, Armenia's ambassador to the United States and Nina Hachigian, Deputy Mayor for International Affairs in Los Angeles, the metropolitan area with the largest number of Armenians in the US.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Biden’s recognition of Armenian genocide: ramifications for Turkey, Armenia & the US
In a special GZERO conversation, Ian Bremmer examines the impact of President Biden's recent statement recognizing Armenian genocide at the hands of Ottoman Empire, an atrocity that began 106 years ago during World War I. What are the ramifications for US/Turkey relations going forward and how will Biden's recognition affect Armenia? Ian Bremmer discusses with two prominent Armenian voices: Varuzhan Nersesyan, Armenia's ambassador to the United States and Nina Hachigian, Deputy Mayor for International Affairs in Los Angeles, the metropolitan area with the largest number of Armenians in the US.
What We’re Watching: Australia cancels China deals, Zuma without lawyers, US to recognize Armenian genocide
Australia rips up Belt & Road deal: Australia cancelled two 2018 deals signed between Victoria, Australia's wealthiest state, and the Chinese government, that committed the two sides to working together on initiatives under China's Belt and Road infrastructure development program. Foreign Minister Marise Payne said that the agreements "were adverse to our foreign relations." Similar deals between Victoria and institutions in Iran and Syria were also abandoned by the Australian government this week, under a 2020 law that allows Canberra to nullify international agreements struck at local and state level. (Australian universities say the "foreign veto bill" amounts to "significant overreach.") Meanwhile, Beijing hit back, calling the move "unreasonable and provocative," and accusing Canberra of further stoking divisions after a series of escalatory moves by both sides that have seen China-Australia relations deteriorate to their worst point in decades. Chinese investment in Australia dropped by 62 percent last year, a massive blow for Australia's export-reliant economy.
Zuma's lawyers quit: Jacob Zuma's entire legal team has thrown in the towel just a month before the former South African president's high-stakes corruption trial. The lawyers have yet to explain why they've dropped Zuma, but regardless it will make it much harder for him to prove he is innocent of 16 charges of racketeering, fraud, corruption and money laundering related to a $2 billion arms deal from the 1990s. Zuma — who was forced to step down in 2018 over this corruption scandal — has long decried the trial as a political witch hunt, stonewalling all requests for evidence and often not showing up when he was due in court. But the process is a major test for South Africa's judiciary to demonstrate it can actually hold people in power to account for corruption. Zuma's successor and former ally, President Cyril Ramaphosa, will be watching very closely.
US to recognize Armenian genocide: A hundred years after the Ottomans tried to exterminate the empire's Armenian population, US President Joe Biden will officially recognize the campaign as a genocide on Saturday. Biden's decision, first sniffed out last month by our very own Ian Bremmer — makes him the first sitting US president to make the designation, joining nearly 30 other countries that have already done so. Although the move is purely symbolic, it risks hurting relations with Turkey, modern successor to the Ottoman Empire and which for decades has denied that as many as 1.5 million Armenians were intentionally massacred or marched to their deaths during and after World War I. With ties between the US and Turkey, a NATO ally, already strained over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasing authoritarianism and his defense dalliances with Russia, expect some fireworks between Washington and Ankara in the coming days.
EXCLUSIVE: Biden administration to officially acknowledge Armenian genocide
EXCLUSIVE: White House sources tell Ian Bremmer the Biden administration will recognize Armenian genocide - the first US president to recognize genocide by the Ottoman Empire during World War 1. Ian explains in this Quick Take:
Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, kicking off the week. Gorgeous outside, it is spring, and I thought we'd focus today on some breaking news out of the United States on Turkey. Those of you following Turkey, know it's been a tough couple of weeks, couple of months, year for President Erdogan. A lot of things going wrong for Turkey right now. They just pulled their country out of the Istanbul Conventions, European agreement that meant to protect women. And he also just sacked his new central bank governor. That's four central bank governors in two years. The economy is not doing well. The Turkish lira is getting crushed, his domestic popularity not going well. And as a consequence, he's cracking down on the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party, the HDP. In fact, they're making a legal effort to just close it down right now, the second biggest opposition party in the country and a bunch of other stuff.
But the big news, is that Erdogan is about to face another diplomatic challenge, which is from the United States. As I've heard from the White House, that President Biden is going to recognize the 1915 killing of Armenians under the Ottomans' rule as a genocide.
Now, this perhaps shouldn't come as a huge surprise. First of all, it happened a long time ago and the French already did some 20 years ago, the Canadians recognized it too, and Biden promised during his campaign that he would make the move if elected. Vice President Kamala Harris, by the way, from California, where there's a large constituency in favor of that, she was actually co-sponsor of the Senate resolution for recognition back in 2019. And with Tony Blinken now as secretary of state, human rights is clearly much higher on Biden's foreign policy agenda than it was under Obama, or obviously than it was under Trump.
To be fair, all of this comes on the back of President Obama, who also said when he was running for office, that he would pledge to recognize the Armenian genocide and then he didn't do it. And indeed, the former advisors to Obama, like the old UN ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, the former deputy of national security advisor, who is Ben Rhodes, had both publicly said, they apologized for it, they said it was a mistake, that they were offering too much to Erdogan, they didn't want to offend or upset him. First of all, Biden aware of all of this when he makes his own pledge, and Samantha Powers, going to be working in the Biden administration, she's already been nominated to run USAID, but Biden clearly does not care as much about alienating the Turkish government. In fact, he hasn't even scheduled a call yet with Erdogan. We're a couple months in right now, despite repeated requests.
And the mood is getting worse. I've actually heard in the last couple of days from both White House and State Department officials, that Biden was incensed when the Turkish president publicly called Biden's comments about Putin, responding to George Stephanopoulos last week about whether he was a killer or not, Erdogan, NATO ally of the United States, said that it was unacceptable for Biden to say that about Erdogan's friend, Vladimir Putin. Then last week, in response to a bipartisan letter from some 38 senators, and it's hard to get bipartisan groups of senators to do anything these days, calling on Biden to recognize the genocide, the White House moved further. They said, "The administration is committed to promoting respect for human rights and ensuring such atrocities are not repeated." And critically, concluding with, "A critical part of that is acknowledging history." And that is code in Biden-land for recognition of the genocide.
Voided front running an announcement because this week Secretary Blinken is going to a NATO ministerial in Europe, it's face-to-face that will include his Turkish counterpart and clearly, they don't want to blow it up right before then. But it's obviously signaling the intention and when asked whether the statement confirmed the genocide recognition would indeed go ahead, a White House advisor told me, "That's what he pledged as a candidate, and that's the policy going forward." I've also heard from a second White House official ask specifically about an impending announcement on April 24th, which is coming up soon, and is the genocide remembrance day, said that, "Biden is a man of his word." So, it's seeming pretty clear at this point. He would be the first American president to do so, that's a big deal. Erdogan will clearly be incensed in response to that. But at this point, he's got a pretty limited domestic constituency in the United States.
The defense companies are probably the strongest, but much less so after Turkey decided to go ahead and buy this S-400 missile defense system from the Russians, even as an American ally. In any case, Biden has shown much less concern about that kind of backlash, given his willingness to put human rights first and foremost, in the relationship with Saudi Arabia, for example, which is by far the most important arms purchaser from the United States in the world. There's no question that a genocide recognition will make it much harder for a reset of US/Turkey relations, but I don't really expect it. And Ankara is going to feel a lot more isolated, but they're under massive economic pressure right now, too.
I would say really what this is all about is a broader pivot of the United States from the Middle East, wanting to end the forever wars, not consider the broader Middle East as important to US national security. Clearly focusing a lot more in Asia, on the quad, on challenging relations with China. And all of that makes Biden's own regional decision-making a lot less constrained than historical presidents have been.
So pretty big news, quite something, I'm looking forward to what the Biden administration is going to be saying on the record on all of this but delighted to bring it to you. Anyway, that's it for me, I hope you're all safe and avoiding fewer people. We are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, be good.
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- Biden’s recognition of Armenian genocide: ramifications for Turkey, Armenia & the US - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Biden’s recognition of Armenian genocide: ramifications for Turkey, Armenia & the US - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Biden’s recognition of Armenian genocide: ramifications for Turkey, Armenia & the US - GZERO Media ›