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Biden & Xi cool tensions at G-20
This week at the G-20 in Bali, the first in-person meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping as presidents of the US and China went ... rather well, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
There was tension on Taiwan and the US-China economic rivalry. But the two leaders agreed to cool things down.
Biden and Xi found common ground on two very important issues: avoiding nuclear war in Ukraine and cooperation on climate.
What We’re Watching: Trump’s 2024 plans, G-20 & Basquiat in Bali, AMLO vs. Mexican democracy
Donald Trump’s “big announcement”
Tuesday is the day. We think. It’s not completely clear. Former US President Donald Trump has dropped a number of not-so-subtle hints that he will announce his candidacy for president on Tuesday. Millions of his supporters will be watching and hoping he pulls the trigger. Millions of Republicans who fear he’s become a liability for their party are hoping he’ll postpone or shock the world by not running. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other potential Trump rivals for the GOP nomination will be watching with dread for a first glimpse of the campaign Trump plans on waging against them. President Joe Biden, who will celebrate his 80th birthday later this month, will be watching to see what sort of Republican Party his reelection campaign is likely to face. The media will be watching in expectation of the opening salvo of the wildest presidential campaign in living memory. And you know we’ll be watching too.
Basquiat in Bali
The G-20 summit of the world’s 20 largest economies, representing 80% of the world economy, begins Tuesday in the Indonesian beach resort of Bali. What’s on the agenda? Pandemic recovery is the big theme, but the main gab will be about the war in Ukraine, where leaders are seeking a common position against nuclear weapons and for renewal of the Ukraine grain export deal, which expires on Saturday. Also, attendees will be keen to keep the growing US-China rivalry manageable for everyone else on the planet. But by our lights, the biggest intrigue isn’t that Vladimir Putin is skipping the event — why subject yourself to an earful about an unprovoked war that’s going so badly? — but instead his replacement’s latest antics. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went to ironic-trolling level nine by giving an interview on the balcony of his Bali hotel room, where he shot down reports he’d been hospitalized and blasted Western journalists while rocking … a Basquiat t-shirt. Basquiat! Hard to imagine the iconoclastic, bisexual, Black fixture of the early 1980s NYC street art scene finding a happy home in Putin’s ultraconservative war-mobilized Russia these days, but stone-faced absurdity is a diplomatic style that Lavrov has long elevated to an art form of its own.
Mexicans rally against AMLO’s election reform
Is democracy in trouble in Mexico? On Monday, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO, blasted the tens of thousands of people who spoiled his 69th birthday the day before by protesting his electoral reform plans. AMLO called the rallies — the biggest he's faced after nearly four years in power — a "striptease" by conservatives that smacks of "privilege, racism, and classism." No way, say the protesters, who fear AMLO's authoritarian crusade against the independent National Electoral Institute. The president wants to make elections more "democratic" by cutting the number of legislators, slashing public funding for political parties, and electing INE officials by popular vote. But his critics argue that he only wants to give the ruling MORENA Party a bigger slice of the legislative pie ahead of the next election in 2024, when the term-limited AMLO aims to handpick his successor. What happens next? Congress — where MORENA and its allies lost their two-thirds majority in both chambers in 2021 — will start debating the legislation in the coming weeks, but Eurasia Group analyst Matías Gómez Léautaud says that the bigger-than-expected turnout might make it harder for AMLO to muster enough opposition votes to get his election reform plans passed.This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Biden and Xi meet in Bali
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: The G-20 of course is in full swing in Bali, Indonesia, and the first face-to-face meeting that Biden has had with Xi Jinping as president. And we shouldn't underestimate this. It's quite unusual. I mean, really unheard of, unprecedented that the two most important leaders on the global stage would have not met in person for two years. And that is indeed the case for Xi Jinping and President Biden. And it's particularly important because these are two leaders that know each other quite well and for a long time. When Biden was vice president, he had a lot of face time in many different venues with then-Vice President Xi, and they got along quite well. They actually like each other, they respect each other. I wouldn't go so far as to say they have a strong relationship of trust, but they enjoy each other's company.
And that's something that you get from Biden when you talk to him. You get the sense that he actually finds that Xi is someone he can deal with. And Biden's perspective on the world is informed by this "great man theory" of international diplomacy, that if you spend enough time with another human being, usually you can improve the relationship. And certainly, I think a big part of this meeting, a three-hour meeting that these two leaders just had on the sidelines of the G-20 is going to make a difference in slowing the escalation and the deterioration of the relationship between these two countries.
There's a lot of significant sharp competition between the United States and China. In many ways, the Biden administration's been more hawkish towards China than the Trump administration was, certainly in terms of trade policy and most specifically technology after the October 7th export controls on semiconductors. This is an overt policy of containment by the United States, and by the way, one that American allies are not really fully signed up for, but the Americans pursued it anyway. US-China policy on Taiwan has been more confrontational than we've seen.
But I think that coming out of today's meeting, you will see first of all, that there will be much more regular high level engagement between the Americans and the Chinese. Very different from the way it was cut off after the Pelosi visit to Taiwan back in August. Secondarily, you'll see that in a number of areas where there isn't direct confrontation like on climate for example, and even on the Russia war, there will be more constructive engagement between the Americans and the Chinese. And the hope from Biden is that you'll be able to do a better job being honest with each other and managing areas of direct conflict as they exist.
And here we're talking primarily Taiwan, South China Sea, East China Sea, national security issues around technology and other dual use trade issues and human rights, the Uyghurs and the rest. But it's a big relationship, it's a complex relationship and it deserves to be a nuanced relationship. And I'd like to believe at least some of the hyperventilating around the likelihood of going to war over Taiwan that we've seen on several occasions over the last nearly 24 months, we will see less of going forward.
I also think that the statement, specifically the restatement between Biden and Xi of no nuclear use in Eurasia, which of course is a pointed criticism at the saber rattling we've seen from President Putin who of course is the one a G-20 member that explicitly said, "Nah, I'm not showing." Up because he doesn't want to be humiliated and isolated by the G-20. But of course, that is the position he's in right now. Xi Jinping is not happy about where the war in Ukraine is going, wants to see an end to it, would certainly support diplomacy. And increasingly the Americans will be in that position too. Not yet because the Americans want the Ukrainians to be able to take as much territory as they can, retake as much of their own territory liberated that's been taken by the Russians. But once that counteroffensive runs out of steam, I think you'll see the Americans and the Chinese in a more similar position on the Russian invasion than they have been in the first nine months. Both sides say that they respect Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty, and that means all the territory that they lost post-February 24th, they should have back. Now, certainly the Chinese will be more sympathetic to the idea that this is partially NATO's fault, but that's not constructive in terms of where the war is going over the next 6, 12, 18 months. And managing potential downside from further escalation and an expansion of the war, including NATO itself, I think is something that the Americans and the Chinese will have a collective interest in. Biden and Xi Jinping both working together on that and having a level of direct regular engagement will be useful in that regard.
So I come out of this saying this meeting went as well as it could have possibly gone given the broader context of where the US and the Chinese are right now, given the difficulties in managing a relationship of two profoundly different systems with different priorities. And that's not going to change anytime soon, but they still need to work together. And I think that that's more credible. And of course, the fact that Xi Jinping now has his third term sewn up and has consolidated an extraordinary amount of power, and that Biden himself is also in a relatively strong position on the back of no wave at all from last Tuesday's US midterm elections will also help, though that only helps in the near-term. Of course, because Biden is going to be facing a Republican House likely who will cause trouble for him. And also, because you've got an American electoral cycle that is still dysfunctional and that the Biden's going to have to fight pretty hard in the next year, two years, and Xi Jinping won't. And of course, that structurally does help. It does benefit the authoritarian over the long-term. Though they've got other challenges economically that are much deeper than the Americans right now that will weaken them.
So anyway, that's where we are. Very interesting. I also do want to give a shout out to the Kremlin and to President Vladimir Putin for the unexpected birthday gift this weekend when they added me to the sanctions list. First time that's ever happened in my life. I'm joined with a lot of very respected and esteemed colleagues like Jim Stavridis, the former head of NATO. And Ivo Daalder, my buddy, the former NATO ambassador. And I saw the Richard Edelman, who runs Edelman Group is on that list. And Tim Snyder, who is not Dan Snyder, thankfully, who is one of the world's greatest living historians. This is a good list. So I guess I'm honored and privileged to be on it. And if what you do to be on it is just try to be honest with everybody. That is the antithesis of where the Russians are right now, and I guess it's where I'm going to be.
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Great-power rivalry to top G-20 agenda
Great-power rivalry to top G-20 agenda
Geopolitical tensions will top the agenda as world leaders gather in Bali on Tuesday for the annual G-20, an international forum that brings together the world’s developed and developing countries to coordinate on economic, health, and climate policies. Russian President Vladimir Putin ultimately decided not to attend, but the war he launched in Ukraine will be an important topic of conversation. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden will meet his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on Monday to try to clarify their respective red lines and build a floor under the US-China relationship. Great-power competition appears likely to overshadow any coordination efforts at this year’s meeting. We asked Eurasia Group expert Ali Wyne what to expect.
Why do you think Putin decided to stay away?
The Russian leader had widely been expected to attend to demonstrate that, contrary to US and European narratives, Russia has not been reduced to pariah status. Indeed, Moscow maintains robust trading relationships around the world, with some reports suggesting that the value of its exports has actually increased since it invaded Ukraine.
In the end, however, at least two considerations appear to have dissuaded Putin from coming to Bali. First, he may have feared not only being shunned by Western leaders but also uncomfortable interactions with China — Russia’s most important partner — and India, both of which have grown increasingly anxious about the course of the war. Second, he is surely concerned about the pace at which Russia’s military position vis-à-vis Ukraine is deteriorating. Its army’s retreat from Kherson city is a major setback for Moscow, and Putin will find it increasingly difficult to argue that Russia is quelling Ukrainian resistance.
Russia will not be entirely absent from the G-20, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will lead a delegation from the country. Still, Putin’s absence is a major story, even if he opts to dial in virtually.
Despite Putin’s absence, will the war in Ukraine feature prominently in summit talks?
Yes, especially because it is contributing to soaring food and energy prices that, in turn, are raising concerns about a potential global recession in 2023. A failure to stem those price increases could further undermine the growth outlooks for — and exacerbate the risks of political instability in — countries across the developing world. Keep in mind that many have yet to overcome the economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic.
How will the G-20 address the war and its fallout?
The conflict has unfortunately surfaced deep divisions among the members of the G-20. Representatives from both developed and developing countries will likely frame it in stark terms but with different emphases. Western officials will be likely to warn that a failure to blunt Russian aggression and liberate Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory would pose a devastating, if not irreversible, blow to the postwar order and the norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity that underpin it. They will likely further contend that such a failure would embolden other would-be aggressors to pursue their revanchist ambitions, with especially troubling implications for relations between China and Taiwan.
Officials from developing countries, by contrast, will be more likely to stress the war’s mounting economic costs and the risk of nuclear escalation. They will likely press US officials to make a renewed diplomatic push to end the conflict, especially as it enters a more unpredictable, dangerous phase.
What will Biden and Xi discuss?
It is significant that they will be meeting in person for the first time since Biden became president because there is no substitute for face-to-face diplomacy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and escalating cross-Strait tensions will likely figure prominently in their discussion; on the latter subject, Biden will likely note America’s red line that China not attempt a forcible reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, while Xi will likely note China’s red line that Taiwan not declare formal independence.
Expectations for the meeting are understandably modest given recent developments (a senior administration official stated that there would be no joint statement and doubted that there would be any deliverables). Xi has secured a norm-defying third term at the helm of China’s government and tapped loyalists to fill top positions. The Biden administration accordingly fears that China will be more repressive at home and aggressive abroad in the next five years than it was in the previous five. Some senior US officials — such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chief of Naval Operations Michael Gilday — believe Beijing plans to accelerate efforts to regain control of Taiwan (including, if necessary, by force). China, meanwhile, sees in the Biden administration’s national security strategy and its new export controls further evidence that the US wants to contain its development.
What other issue(s) would you highlight as important to watch at the gathering?
With Democrats expected to lose control of at least one chamber of Congress following the Nov. 8 midterm elections, officials from US allies and partners will likely ask Biden how durably his administration will be able to advance its domestic and foreign policy agendas. In addition, South Korea will probably raise North Korea’s increasingly long-range missile tests, and Saudi Arabia will likely warn the US against continuing with its efforts to resurrect a nuclear deal with Iran.
On balance, this year’s G-20 will underscore the growing difficulty of mobilizing collective action. In 2008 and 2009, it played an important role in ensuring that a fast-moving financial crisis did not morph into another depression. In 2022, by contrast, it will showcase the extent to which intensifying great-power competition is hindering efforts to manage transnational challenges including climate change, pandemic disease, and nuclear proliferation. There is little expectation that the summit will produce breakthroughs in managing climate change or mitigating disruptions to food and energy security. Indeed, even a joint communiqué is doubtful.