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A person holds a placard on the day justices hear oral arguments in a bid by TikTok and its China-based parent company, ByteDance, to block a law intended to force the sale of the short-video app by Jan. 19 or face a ban on national security grounds, outside the U.S. Supreme Court, in Washington, U.S., January 10, 2025.
TikTok ban likely to be upheld
On Friday, the Supreme Court appeared poised to uphold the TikTok ban, largely dismissing the app’s argument that it should be able to exist in the US under the First Amendment’s free speech protections and favoring the government's concerns that it poses a national security threat.
Put simply, they see it as an issue of national security, not free speech.
“Congress doesn’t care about what’s on TikTok. They don’t care about the expression,” claimed Chief Justice John Roberts during questioning, clarifying “That’s shown by the remedy. They’re not saying TikTok has to stop. They’re saying the Chinese have to stop controlling TikTok.”
What’s the threat? US lawmakers are concerned about the Chinese government having access to enormous amounts of Americans’ data – and fear the app could be used to spread Beijing’s agenda. Facebook and other American social media platforms are notably banned in China – with Beijing taking a similar view to that of the US government. The justices seemed worried that TikTok could be used for espionage or even blackmail.
What does upholding the ban mean for the app? If the court rules against the app, it would mean that Bytedance, Tiktok’s parent company, must divest from the company before Jan. 19 or face a national ban on national security grounds. The app would no longer be available on the Google or Apple app stores.
But it won’t disappear from your phone if you already have it downloaded. The ban would only affect future downloads. Without the ability to update the app, however, it will likely degrade, and TikTok may block US users before that happens to avoid further legal issues. Incoming President Donald Trump has pledged to save the app, but there is no clear legal method to do so.
The decision could be an early reflection of one of this year’s Top Risks 2025 from our parent company, Eurasia Group: the breakdown of the US-China relationship. The world’s biggest superpowers increasingly distrust one another, and Trump’s return to office is likely to exacerbate the decoupling — increasing the risk of instability and crisis.
A ban sign displayed on a laptop screen and TikTok logo displayed on a phone screen are seen in this multiple exposure illustration photo taken in Poland on March 17, 2024.
TikTok lawsuit the latest in big-tech backlash
Fourteen US states are suing TikTok, alleging that the platform is addictive and harms the mental health of young people. The attorneys general come from states led by both Democrats and Republicans, and the coalition is headed by California and New York, home to millions of TikTok users.
The suits are the latest in a string of moves aimed at bringing large tech firms to heel. The US federal government is considering the breakup of Google and its anti-competitive search engine service as the firm faces a series of antitrust cases. The Federal Trade Commission is suing Meta, and the Department of Justice is suing Apple over an alleged monopoly on smartphones.
In Canada, the Trudeau government has launched a 3% Digital Services Tax on big tech firms in the country for revenue earned on “certain digital services that rely on engagement, data, and content contributions of Canadian users.” The Competition Bureau is also investigating Google over its advertising practices. School boards in the country’s most populous province, Ontario, have launched their own lawsuits against Meta, Snapchat, and TikTok, alleging that the social media giants run platforms that inhibit student learning.
The suits and taxes reveal a struggle between governments and tech giants over the social and economic responsibilities of massive companies that dominate not just their respective markets, but our behavior. As governments seek to extract more from the companies and bring them to heel over the effects of their products, the legal and legislative efforts are likely to continue to pile up – and yield results.