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Marine Tondelier, of Les Ecologistes party, talks to journalists next to colleagues as they leave a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Dec. 10. They had met with the French president as part of consultations aimed at appointing a new prime minister.
Macron works to end France’s political deadlock
France finds itself unable to form a government and pass a budget because Macron called an election for July that empowered both right- and left-wing hardliners with no political bloc winning a majority. France has no prime minister at the moment because these hardliners ousted Michel Barnier – who held his post for just 90 days – in a no-confidence vote. That’s the shortest tenure for any PM in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
For now, France’s Green Party says it won’t join a “national interest” government. The Socialists insist they will only support a left-wing prime minister, a non-starter for conservatives.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reacts during the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government, in Paris, France, on Dec. 4, 2024.
Lawmakers vote to oust French government
Just three months ago, President Emmanuel Macron chose Barnier to lead the government after elections earlier this year empowered Macron’s critics on both the left and right, but without giving either side a working parliamentary majority.
On Monday, Barnier tried to break a bitter legislative deadlock over his proposed state budget, which proposes sharp state spending cuts, by using a constitutional provision to push his package through without a parliamentary vote. Barnier haswarned that France spends more to service its debt than on defense or higher education.
Lawmakers were then faced with a choice: Accept Barnier’s powerplay or vote no-confidence in his leadership. They chose to oust him and his budget, and France will now face weeks, perhaps months, of political uncertainty as lawmakers of the left and right fight for control of an institution that neither has enough votes to lead.
Some critics have suggested the only way out of this impasse is for twice-elected President Macron to resign, allowing for elections next year rather than in 2027 as currently scheduled. Macron, though deeply unpopular, has dismissed that idea as “make-believe politics.”
It appears Macron will ask Barnier to remain as prime minister until a replacement can be named, but it will be months before voters can return to the polls. New elections can’t be held within a year of the most recent vote, which took place in July. France’s polarized politics have now left its government unable to pass a budget. It’s unclear how this problem can be resolved.
What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Parma, Italy.
First question, obviously, is what's happening in France?
The Barnier government didn't last more than 57 days. It was brought down by the populists of the right and the populists of the left. And Barnier tried to do what needs to be done. Bring the French budget under control. They have a deficit of roughly 6% of GDP. That's double what is allowed under the European Union rules and they were headed to 7%. He had proposed a budget of tax cuts and expenditure cuts, take it down to 5%, which is too high anyhow, and brought down. So what will happen now? Well, Marine Le Pen would like to get rid of Macron. I think that's unlikely to happen in the short perspective anyhow. And Macron, the president, will have to find a new prime minister and a new government. That will take its time. And from the wider European perspective, of course, less than ideal. We have an extremely weak government in Germany heading for elections and likely to lose that particular election. We now have a situation where France doesn't have any functioning government either, and we have things happening on the other side of the Atlantic.
Second question, is there any way for the European Union and other Europeans to influence the course of events in Georgia?
Well, one would hope so, but I think prospects are not particularly good. We have an increasingly seemingly authoritarian, I would call it, government leaning towards some sort of, call it, Putin-esque regime, consolidating power using violence, have evidently falsified and rigged elections to a very large extent, and intending to stay in power. And now, we have a fairly significant popular opposition developing on the streets of not only Tbilisi, but several other Georgian cities. Will that result in violence? Will that result in some sort of accommodation? Will that result in it all being repressed? We don't know. EU will have to, and America as well, contemplate sanctions and other measures in a fairly short period of time in order to have any possibility of influencing the course of events. Otherwise, I fear the prospects are rather grim.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves following the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Nov. 27, 2024.
French government barrels toward a brick wall
To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.
Expect Barnier’s government to collapse on Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.
European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier talks to journalists in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018.
France gets a government - but how long will it last?
A droite, s’il vous plaît! Three months after France’s snap election produced a hung parliament, President Emmanuel Macronfinally unveiled a new government with a distinct rightward tilt.
Led by conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier, the new 39-member cabinet includes ten key figures from the establishment center-right Republican Party, including staunch conservative Bruno Retailleau as interior minister, overseeing immigration. Macron loyalist Sébastien Lecornu will remain defense minister, while Antoine Armand, a low-profile member of Macron’s centrist alliance, took finance.
The only left-winger in the cabinet is independent Didier Migaud, the new justice minister.
Given that the leftwing New Popular Front alliance won the most seats, Macron’s choices put the government on thin ice.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon dubbed it"a government of the general election losers" and the New Popular Front has threatened a no-confidence motion. That could come as early as October, when Barniermust submit the government’s 2025 budget plan.
Barnier may need to draw support from rightwing parties, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. But that’s dicey too. Although National Rally has no government portfolios, it has enough votes to bring it down if it works with the left wing. Cooperating with archrivals might prove too high a hurdle, but we’re watching how Barnie navigates the dangerous waters.