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Damaged vehicles are seen after an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs in Lebanon on July 30, 2024.
Top Hamas leader killed in Tehran
Iran is blaming Israel for a pre-dawn airstrike in Tehran on Wednesday that killed top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a move that could further escalate conflict in the region. The militant group said Haniyeh’s assassination on Iranian soil “takes the battle to new dimensions.”
This followed Israel’s strike in Beirut on Tuesday targeting a Hezbollah commander it alleges was behind a rocket attack on Saturday in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children. Israel believes that the commander, Fuad Shukr, was killed by the strike, but there are conflicting reports about whether he survived.
The Beirut strike, which reportedly also killed one civilian and injured 35 people, came after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned there would be a severe response to the deadly attack in the Golan Heights.
Hezbollah has denied responsibility for Saturday’s strike, which occurred after months of rising tensions between the Iran-backed militant group and the Jewish state that have raised fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East amid the already devastating war in Gaza.
Israel’s response yesterday marked a significant escalation in the tit for tat between Israel and Hezbollah and came after the US urged the Israeli government to show restraint.
As for the Wednesday strike, it’s worth noting that the last time tensions flared dangerously between Iran and Israel was in April over Israel’s alleged targeting of a building next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Tehran responded then by launching its first-ever attack on Israeli soil with missiles and drones.
What happens next? In response to the assassination of Haniyeh, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Israel had “prepared a harsh punishment for itself” by killing “a dear guest in our home.” We’re watching for revenge strikes, and to see whether Hamas pulls out of cease-fire negotiations in response.
“[The Beirut attack] was pretty big — a direct strike on Hezbollah’s heart, and one against a member of the leadership,” says Gregory Brew, a Eurasia Group senior analyst and regional expert, and the next few days will be crucial for Hezbollah “as they figure out how to respond.”
America's tightrope walk with the Israel-Hamas war
As the death toll mounts in Israel’s war with Hamas, Ian Bremmer looks at the role the US government should play in the conflict and whether that role is as clear-cut today as it was right after the attack on October 7. President Biden made a politically and personally dangerous trip to Israel this week, showing solidarity for America’s closest ally in the Middle East. But the administration must walk a fine line between supporting Israel’s right to defend itself and preventing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza from spiraling out of control.
On this episode of GZERO World, we get the view from both sides of the aisle on Capitol Hill, first with Senator Chris Murphy, the Connecticut Democrat who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and then with Republican Representative Mike Waltz of Florida, a member of the House Foreign Affairs committee.
Also: a dispatch from Lebanon. A little over 50 miles from the Israeli border, there are few signs of the violent conflict capturing the world's attention. For now, at least. Further south, there have been almost daily exchanges of rocket fire between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that dominates southern Lebanon and is a regional power in its own right. GZERO correspondent Fin DePoncier is in Beirut to hear from its diverse population about what they think about their country's precarious position and what it would mean if Lebanon gets dragged into Israel's war with Hamas. Some people see themselves as entirely removed from the conflict, and others would pick up arms to fight, but everyone is bracing for the worst. For now, all eyes are on Hezbollah and the southern border.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Will Israel's war with Hamas spread north to Lebanon?
In Beirut, a little over 50 miles from the Israeli border, there are few signs of the violent conflict capturing the world's attention. At least for now. Further south, there have been almost daily exchanges of rocket fire between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that dominates southern Lebanon and is a regional power in its own right.
Fear is growing, even in the north, that the war between Israel and Hamas could spill over into a broader regional conflict, GZERO's Fin DePoncier reports from Beirut. But Lebanon is reeling from its own internal struggles–It suffered a devastating economic collapse in 2019 that was exacerbated by the 2020 pandemic and a deadly explosion at the Port of Beirut that caused billions in damage. It's also politically paralyzed; its divided parliament hasn't been able to elect a president since Michel Aoun left office in 2022.
DePoncier is in Beirut to hear from its diverse population about what they think about their country's precarious position and what it would mean if Lebanon gets dragged into Israel's war with Hamas. Some people see themselves as entirely removed from the conflict, others would pick up arms to fight, but everyone is bracing for the worst. For now, all eyes are on Hezbollah and the southern border.
Watch more about the situation in the Middle East on the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Can this election save Lebanon? ›
- Is Hezbollah losing influence in Lebanon? Kim Ghattas on Lebanese divisions & unity ›
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
- Hamas attacks in Israel ignite war ›
- Skirmishes with Hezbollah threaten escalation ›
- Podcast: What's the US role in the Israel-Hamas war? Views from Sen. Chris Murphy & Rep. Mike Waltz - GZERO Media ›
A view of graffiti at the damaged port area in the aftermath of a massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon
Hard Numbers: Beirut explosion anniversary, Navy sailors charged with spying for China, UK raises interest rates, Russian bombs destroy historic church, Germany defeated in World Cup
3: Friday marks three years since the horrific Beirut port explosion that killed more than 200 people, wounded thousands, and extensively damaged the Lebanese capital. The blast occurred after hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate were improperly stored at a port warehouse despite repeated warnings of the danger. Meanwhile, efforts to hold senior government officials accountable have repeatedly been blocked by a corrupt judicial system. Sadly, Lebanon’s culture of impunity lives on.
2: Two US Navy sailors were arrested in California on Thursday on charges of spying for China. Both allegedly earned thousands of dollars by passing their handlers secret information about the Navy's Pacific fleet. One of the men is a naturalized US citizen who was born in China. The arrests will heighten Washington's already keen concern about Chinese espionage, but this may also lead to calls from some quarters for more scrutiny of people of Chinese descent in the US. In 2022, the Biden administration ended a controversial Trump-era initiative to combat Beijing's spying because of concerns that it unfairly targeted Chinese or Chinese-American scientists and students.
15: The Bank of England raised its main interest rate to 5.25%, a 15-year high. We know this headline is getting stale, as central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have been raising rates to try to bring down stubbornly high inflation since the early days of 2022. The UK said it is likely to raise rates again in September – bad news for those seeing their rents and mortgages rise amid a cost-of-living crisis.
8: The Russian military bombed a landmark church in the Ukrainian city of Kherson, injuring 8 civilians. Built in 1781, the church held the remains of Prince Grigory Potemkin, an 18th-century Russian military commander who encouraged Catherine the Great to expand the Russian Empire into what is now southern Ukraine. Ukraine appeared to hit back today by targeting two Russian-controlled ports in the Black Sea, another sign that Kyiv is expanding its mission to target Russian infrastructure.
1: Germany – the second-ranked team in women’s soccer – made its earliest-ever exit from the World Cup after tying 1-1 with South Korea when it needed a win to proceed to the next round. This is the first time Germany has failed to make it past the group stage. South Korea scored its first goal of the tournament but is also out – it was effectively eliminated before the game began.
Supporters of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah hold flags during an election rally in Tyre, Lebanon.
Can this election save Lebanon?
Corruption and mismanagement have become the hallmarks of Lebanese governance.
In 2019, the country’s ill-managed economy imploded thanks to a self-serving political elite, and in 2020, an explosion resulting from government negligence killed 230 people at a Beirut port. Subsequent attempts to stonewall the criminal investigation of the blast again exposed the greed and malice of those in charge.
In short, things need to change.
Voters will cast their ballots on May 15 in general elections for the first time since all hell broke loose three years ago. Is there any hope for a political turnaround, or will the country continue rolling over a cliff?
Decades of deterioration. Years of government mismanagement and corruption coupled with ongoing sectarian violence since the country’s civil war ended in 1990 have fueled low expectations and apathy amongst Lebanon’s electorate. Indeed, decades of pocket-lining by politicians, combined with successive governments racking up mountains of debt, have crashed the economy and sent standards of living into a free fall.
Since 2019, Lebanon’s currency has lost 90% of its value, and inflation now stands at an unfathomable 215%. Lebanese who have seen their savings dry up and their opportunities dwindle are increasingly disillusioned, and they lack trust in the government's ability to improve their plight. As a result, only 54% of eligible voters say they plan to vote, according to Oxfam.
Ongoing sectarian strife is part of the equation. Earlier this year, former PM Saad Hariri – son of slain Sunni PM Rafik Hariri – announced his resignation from politics, leaving a political vacuum. Many Sunni Lebanese – roughly one third of the population – don’t intend to vote.
Analysts say this could be good news for Hezbollah, the Shiite political party and militant group backed by Iran and deemed a terrorist organization by the US and EU. Led by Hassan Nasrallah, a hardliner, Hezbollah has been dubbed a state within a state, because it has vast military capabilities, provides some social provisions, and takes independent actions at home and abroad – like firing rockets into Israel – that invariably impact the Lebanese state.
Hezbollah’s coalition already holds around 55% of parliamentary seats and is hoping to pick up some Sunni votes to further consolidate power. The Saudis are clearly worried about it too: A prominent Saudi columnist reportedly called Hariri a “traitor” for backing out of the election and allowing Hezbollah to fill the void.
What’s at stake?
Much-needed dough. With 75% of the country living below the poverty line, Beirut has been engaged in ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for access to loans and aid.
Last month, the two sides reached a preliminary agreement for a $3 billion loan contingent on Lebanon implementing a series of reforms, including getting rid of bank secrecy laws that allow the central bank to withhold information from donors, and restructuring the banking sector.
Still, if the past is prologue, the political elite will likely continue dragging their feet on reforms that might be detrimental to their personal interests and wealth. Hezbollah has displayed some willingness to negotiate with the IMF, though it says it won’t agree to any austerity measures that would hurt its base, the majority of whom are poor.
While this loan is just a drop in the ocean compared to Lebanon’s crushing $70 billion debt, it would still be an important stepping stone, analysts say, toward boosting investor confidence.
Who's watching?
Surely, the Gulf states, which are locked in a semi-rapprochement with Beirut after a rocky 18 months. The Saudis and Emirates once flooded Lebanon with cash but withdrew as Hezbollah’s – and Iran’s – grip on power tightened. Things got worse last year after a Lebanese minister criticized Riyadh’s onslaught in Yemen, prompting the Saudis to block all Lebanese imports.
The Saudis, for their part, have shown a willingness to patch things up. But it’s hard to imagine that the two states will get much cozier if Hezbollah’s power continues to grow.
The status quo presents big problems for Washington. Many members of Lebanon’s political class, who Washington partners with to try and cut off terrorist financing, are also obstructing the reform efforts needed for unlocking international aid.
Inside Lebanon, the marriage of convenience continues: Lebanon’s political elite siphon money, and Hezbollah seem to get carte blanche to fire rockets at Israel and wage Tehran’s regional war. The people of Lebanon, meanwhile, continue to suffer.
Is Hezbollah losing influence in Lebanon? Kim Ghattas on Lebanese divisions & unity
Some of the worst sectarian clashes since Lebanon's 15-year civil war (1975-1990) broke out in Beirut this week between supporters of Hezbollah and Amal, both Shiite political parties, and Christian, far-right Lebanese Forces. Shiite protesters were rallying against the state probe into the Beirut port blast, which occurred last year. They say authorities were singling out Shiite politicians for questioning and blame. In this video, watch Ian Bremmer's conversation with Lebanese journalist and author Kim Ghattas on GZW talking about the future of Lebanese politics and sectarianism in the county after the after the blast. It was originally published on August 19, 2020.
In Lebanon, "a majority (are) united in wanting a different future, a future that is non-sectarian, that is non-corrupt, that provides prosperity, justice, dignity for people," journalist Kim Ghattas told Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
In this interview, Ghattas discusses the opportunity that could arise from the tragedy of the Beirut explosion which killed 200 and injured thousands more. The Lebanese are "fed up" with the militant group Hezbollah, she tells Bremmer, and want to strive for a government that better resembles the diversity and cosmopolitan nature of its citizens.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Lebanon Post-Blast: Rage in the Streets of Beirut.
What's next for Lebanon?
Some of the worst sectarian clashes since Lebanon's 15-year civil war (1975-1990) broke out in Beirut this week between supporters of Hezbollah and Amal, both Shiite political parties, and Christian, far-right Lebanese Forces. Shiite protesters were rallying against the state probe into the Beirut port blast, which occurred last year. They say authorities were singling out Shiite politicians for questioning and blame. Below is our original piece on the Beirut port explosions published on August 5, 2020.
The twin explosions at Beirut's port on Tuesday were so powerful that the aftershocks reverberated as far as the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus, 150 miles away. The specter of fire and smoke was such that many suggested on social media that Beirut had experienced a nuclear blast.
In the days ahead, more details will come to light about why a deadly cache of materials was haphazardly stashed at a port warehouse, and why Lebanon's government failed to secure the site. So, what comes next for crisis-ridden Lebanon?
The timing could not be worse. In recent weeks, Lebanon, one of the world's most indebted countries, has spiraled into chaos after decades of economic mismanagement.
Crime is spiking as desperate Lebanese seek scarce basics like food and medicine, while others are turning to a swarming online barter economy to survive — clothes for baby formula? The deepening economic crisis recently pushed at least 500,000 children in Beirut into poverty, an aid group warned in July.
International observers, meanwhile, have questioned whether Lebanon has already breached the "failed state" threshold.
International support. So far, countries including Australia, Canada, France, Israel, Norway, Turkey and the Netherlands have offered Beirut urgent humanitarian aid in the form of generators, medical equipment and personnel, and even some cash. The EU, for its part, is sending search and rescue teams to search for survivors, while French President Emmanuel Macron will touch down in Beirut on Thursday to offer support to his country's former colony.
While immediate humanitarian support has been forthcoming — and encouraging — the aid itself is unlikely to pull Lebanon back from the brink. There are several reasons for this.
First, humanitarian aid is one thing, but financial lifelines are another. Even before the pandemic crippled the global economy, the World Bank predicted that 50 percent of Lebanese could be living below the poverty line if current trends continued. Hoping to stave off its worst economic crisis since the 15-year civil war ended in 1990, Beirut has since appealed to international creditors like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a whopping $10 billion in financial assistance, but the IMF has refused to play ball unless the Lebanese government reforms its bloated, inefficient, and corrupt public sector. So far, Beirut's power brokers have resisted.
Reformist will is key. Even if the IMF acquiesces and doles out funds to cash-strapped Lebanon, what happens when the money gets there? Lebanon's patronage-ridden public sector and corrupted politicians, many of them former warlords of sectarian groups, have mismanaged the country's economy for decades, lining their own pockets while the middle class has plunged into poverty. IMF support does not solve long-term problems such as government paralysis, poverty and social instability that, experts warn, can only be mitigated through structural reform.
The Hezbollah equation. The political clout of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite group, further complicates Lebanon's efforts to secure external funding. In 2018, the IMF pledged $11 billion to Lebanon on the condition that the government institute significant anti-corruption and economic reforms. Washington, which, along with its Gulf Arab allies, deems the group a terrorist organization, recently accused Hezbollah of obstructing reform efforts, a view tacitly supported by other international donors.
This week's tumult also comes as the country braces for a UN court's verdict on the 2005 slaying of Lebanon's former Sunni Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, set to be handed down on August 18. The outcome in the Hariri case, which inflamed sectarian tensions across Lebanon and the region, will likely implicate Hezbollah officials. This risks further complicating efforts to secure external aid, and threatens to ignite sectarian discord amongst already-despondent Lebanese.
As negotiations with the IMF stalled in recent months, a desperate Beirut turned to Beijing for economic support, but it's walking a fine line, wary of irking Washington, a longtime ally, as US-China tensions surge.
The ball is largely in Beirut's court. The government can start working towards comprehensive reform in the hopes of lifting its floundering population out of poverty. Alternatively, it can fall back on the excuse of international donors not coming through and continue with business as usual. Which will it choose?
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Lebanon is on fire. Where's the fire brigade?
It's been 365 days since twin blasts at a Beirut port decimated Lebanon's capital. More than 200 people were killed and some 7,000 were injured, yet accountability has been scarce. There is ample evidence that multiple Lebanese officials knew that ammonium nitrate was being improperly stored at the port. Four high-ranking politicians, including former PM Hassan Diab, have been charged by a Lebanese judge, but they all refuse to cooperate with the ongoing investigation.
Since then, Lebanon's already-dire economic and financial crises have only intensified. The Lebanese pound, the national currency, has plummeted, losing 90 percent of its value since 2019, when the country's economic crisis erupted. And more than 50 percent of the population is now living below the poverty line.
Some locals say Lebanon has become "unlivable" in recent months. So why isn't the country — now approaching failed-state status — getting the help it needs?
Corruption and dysfunction. International donors resent the corruption and cronyism that have long plagued Lebanon's political class and impeded meaningful political reform. And they have little reason to expect change. Despite international outrage in the aftermath of last year's explosion, Lebanese lawmakers have refused to lift immunity from prosecution for several former ministers wanted for questioning, stonewalling the state's investigation.
Even before the blasts, Lebanon's byzantine sectarian power-sharing system had brought the government to a standstill, while years of pocket-lining by politicians had crashed the economy and sent standards of living into free fall.
For those at the top, there has been little incentive to implement reforms: industry "entrepreneurs" have benefited from lack of government regulation and services — often giving generous kickbacks to politicians for preserving the status quo. Lebanon's sketchy electricity industry, which relies on so-called "generator mafias" with ties to the political elite, is a case in point.
Foreign aid distribution is politicized. Last summer, Emmanuel Macron, president of France, Lebanon's former colonial power, jetted into Beirut twice within a few weeks and vowed to help usher in the reforms needed for Lebanon's political and economic "rebirth." But he has also said that unlocking international aid would be contingent on Lebanon instituting some basic reforms, like forming a new government and rooting out corruption. So far, that's been a bust: just weeks ago, the interim PM Said Hariri threw in the towel after failing to find common ground with President Michel Aoun.
"Real reforms require the political class, as well as Hezbollah, to give up too much of the power, money and influence they accumulated over years and they're not ready to do that," Kim Ghattas , author of Black Wave and contributing writer at the Atlantic, told GZERO Media. "The real work and the real opportunity for change is next year, when Lebanon will have legislative, municipal and presidential elections."
Macron has made no secret of the fact that he's fed up with Lebanon's untrustworthy elite. Still, after last summer's aid-pledging conference covered just 5 percent of the damages, he will hold a second fundraising event this week.
International financial heavyweights are frustrated. Bailout talks between Beirut and the International Monetary Fund have also reached an impasse. Before the port explosion, Lebanon's central bank had refused to accept the IMF's assessment that it had incurred losses of $49 billion, and the IMF has grown frustrated at the lack of progress on meaningful political reforms its assistance is tied to. Earlier this year, the World Bank also approved loans to help struggling families, but some analysts say that the loan structure shortchanges needy Lebanese while benefiting the political elite.
"For years, the international community helped feed corruption by pouring aid into Lebanon to support stability but without ever inquiring about where the money went," Ghattas said. Looking ahead, "the US and France and their allies should continue to stress the need for justice and accountability, not only for the port blast but also for the country's economic crash. Without accountability there is no stability, anywhere."
Regional players have their own agenda. To make matters worse for Lebanon, wealthy Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pulled back on doling out funds in recent years. In 2016, Riyadh scrapped a total $4 billion in aid to Lebanon's military and police, citing Iran's heavy hand in the country's affairs. The Saudis and Emiratis don't want the money going to Iran-backed Hezbollah, a dominant force in Lebanese politics, and they want to see Iran and its proxy take the blame for Lebanon's popular unrest.
So why should outsiders bail out chronically unstable Lebanon? There is, of course, the moral dimension of human suffering. For those who care about their fellow human beings, that's incentive enough.
But there's also the regional implications: instability begets instability, and Lebanon lives in an unstable neighborhood. The spillover effects of a more chaotic Lebanon won't help a region still coping with large numbers of refugees and the continuing fallout from civil wars in Syria and Yemen, and potential instability elsewhere.