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Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a leader of the democratic opposition of Belarus, is seen here in Krakow, Poland, in 2022.
Belarus’s exiled opposition leader wants to “remind” Americans of something important
Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for more than 30 years. A close ally of Vladimir Putin, he is often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator.”
Last weekend, he won yet another election that was widely regarded as rigged.
The last time he did that, in 2020, it provoked mass protests led by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who took up the mantle after her husband Syarhei, a popular dissident, was jailed ahead of the vote. The regime brutally suppressed those protests, jailing hundreds. Tsikhanousakaya fled into exile in neighboring Lithuania.
She is still there, and her husband remains in a Belarusian prison. I spoke to her about why Lukashenko’s latest electoral fraud has failed to produce the same kind of uprising, and what she expects and hopes will happen next.
Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Alex Kliment: Sviatlana, the last time Lukashenko won an election that was widely regarded as a fraud, there were mass protests, the largest in Belarusian history. This time, so far, the streets of Minsk are silent. Why?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:In 2020, after fraudulent elections, people went to the streets. We wanted to protect our votes, our voice, and this regime, they suppressed it. They unleashed terror and for four years in a row, the regime has kept Belarusian people in total fear.
I think that people in democratic countries don’t even have an understanding of what it means to live in such a society, in such a tyranny. It’s like in Stalin’s time when at any moment the KGB just can break into your house and detain you in front of your children. There is no rule of law. You don’t know what colors you can wear. Is the combination of white and red safe? [The colors of the opposition flag]. Or if you donate 20 euros to the Ukrainian army, it costs you five years in prison. Or if you buy Christmas presents for children of political prisoners, and the regime says that you are supporting extremism, they put you in prison for 10, 15 years.
So while in 2020 we believed that millions of people in the streets will show this regime “we are against you, we want you to leave!” Now, when people are silenced, when people are underground, I don’t want people to be imprisoned in vain. We need people. We need people’s energy for a real moment of opportunity. And this circus and farce, it’s not the moment we are preparing for.
Kliment: What do you think will bring about that real moment of opportunity?
Tsikhanouskaya: It could be many scenarios. First, the fate of Belarus and Ukraine are intertwined because both our countries are fighting against the imperialistic ambitions of Russia. Lukashenko became a vassal to Putin, a puppet to Putin’s regime, providing all the necessary infrastructure, territory, and facilities for Russia[’s invasion of Ukraine]. The victory of Ukraine in this war will weaken Putin’s regime and hence weaken Lukashenko’s regime.
It could also be an internal coup d’etat in the regime. For years, the Belarusian people and Belarusian nomenklatura have seen that Lukashenko is a dead end for our country, for our independence, and for our sovereignty. Lukashenko is selling our country, piece by piece, to Russia. He doesn’t care about Belarusian national identity. He doesn’t care about the Belarusian nation. He cares only about his power. And Putin is the person who provides this power to Lukashenko. So elites understand that we can lose our country, that Lukashenko can make Belarus an appendix of Russia, and they don’t want that.
It could be economic issues. It can be a “hunger uprising.” Why not? Lukashenko is doing everything possible to isolate our country, committing crime after crime, making the democratic world impose sanctions.
It could be any black swan, like the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria was. And our task is to be prepared for this moment. We have to be strong enough. We have to be united. We have to keep our democratic partners in alliance with us and use this moment of opportunity for Belarus and bring changes.
Kliment: Right now, leaders and societies around the world are bracing for the impact of Donald Trump’s foreign policy. How might that affect Belarus generally, and affect your movement in particular?
Tsikhanouskaya: I want to remind free Americans that the United States of America was always a beacon of freedom and hope for countries who are fighting for democracy. We need examples. We need to see how a strong democracy is helping those who are sacrificing their freedom, sacrificing their lives for the values that your countries are based on.
We always saw the USA as our ally against dictatorship, against tyranny, against brutality and I want to believe that the USA will continue to help and assist those nations who are on the front line of this fight.
So for us, it’s important to show the new US government the strategic importance of Belarus in our region. How without free and democratic and independent Belarus, there will be no peace and security in the whole region.
Lukashenko is now a key player in the global network of autocrats helping each other circumvent sanctions and sustain dictatorships. Belarus has become a hub for smuggling sanctioned goods, laundering money, and facilitating weapons production.
So stand with us, help us to return our country to its people and to the European family of nations. It’s in the interest of global peace and security, and this is what the USA always was standing for.
Kliment: And under what circumstances do you hope to return to Belarus? What is the Belarus that you dream of going back to?
Tsikhanouskaya: My dream of Belarus is that my country is, first of all, a free country where people don’t live in constant fear. I want a Belarus that is not dependent on Russia. I want a Belarus that is a reliable neighbor for Western countries and not the source of constant threats and provocation as we are now. And I truly believe that with good governance, with good management, our country really can be among the most advanced countries in Europe. We have wonderful, hard-working, very disciplined, very patient, and peaceful people.
And this isn’t about hope, it’s about hard work, it’s about constant challenges, but it’s also about confidence. Because I see how, despite all the brutality of the regime, despite all the difficulties, the Belarusian people have not given up. We are an inspiration of how to be strong, how to be brave, and how to fight against dictators.
Kliment: Well, I will look forward to speaking with you on that day. Vyaliki dziakui [thank you very much] Sviatlana.
Tsikhanouskaya: Fantastic, thank you.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko take part in a signing ceremony following a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in Minsk, Belarus, on Dec. 6, 2024.
Viewpoint: With Putin’s protection, is Lukashenko’s reelection in Belarus a foregone conclusion?
Ahead of Sunday’s election in Belarus, there is little doubt that Alexander Lukashenko, Europe’s longest-serving leader, will win a new term in office. After the protests that erupted following the 2020 elections, threatening his grip on power for the first time, a government crackdown supported by Russia has eliminated any opposition to the president.
Yet a new term for the 70-year-old leader, who has complained about health problems, will likely raise questions about potential succession planning in his next term. Regardless of what comes next, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who considers neighboring Belarus a critical part of his country’s sphere of influence, will make sure its interests are protected.
We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Alex Brideau to learn more about the upcoming election.
What do we know about Lukashenko’s true level of support?
Lukashenko has been in power for more than 30 years, ever since he won Belarus’ first and only genuine democratic presidential election, held in 1994 a few years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since then, it has been hard to tell just how genuine Lukashenko’s public support is. He has routinely won reelection in votes that were neither free nor fair. Many of his challengers have been arrested for standing against him.
Lukashenko’s reelection in 2020, though, demonstrated that whatever popularity he previously enjoyed had eroded and that his hold on power looked shaky. Public outcry over manipulated results that showed another landslide victory against a credible opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, prompted major demonstrations that threatened Lukashenko’s hold on power for months. Major repression by the security forces and support from Russia allowed him to regain control of the situation.
Is there any chance of a repeat of the 2020 results or unrest?
This election is going to look very different from the anger of five years ago. Belarus’ security services continue to repress the formal opposition. Parties have been banned and their leaders have been arrested or forced to flee the country. Attempts to protest the results will be met with arrests and force, most likely. The regime may hope that holding the election in January instead of August, as happened in 2020, might limit the appetite for demonstrations. As for the election itself, there is little mystery as to who will win. Lukashenko won’t have a serious challenger, instead facing candidates who are considered to be loyal opposition.
What matters with this vote?
Given his age and past statements suggesting he is concerned about his health, there will be at least some question as to whether Lukashenko might consider a succession plan during his new term. Lukashenko has talked about stepping aside before, only to stay firmly in charge. And it’s doubtful that a succession plan would truly lead to him giving up his control. Lukashenko’s control of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly gives him a way to exert power if he decided he wanted to transfer the presidency to a loyalist.
How do outside powers view the election?
Russia will recognize the election results, allowing it to maintain its influence over Belarus. Lukashenko isn’t exactly liked in Moscow. His leadership has been considered erratic, and he has thumbed his nose at Moscow’s interests at times when it either helped him at home or when he tried (and failed) to cozy up to the West. But he has become even more dependent on Russian economic and military support since 2020, as Western governments imposed heavier sanctions and even restricted air travel from Belarus. Putin’s policies have treated Belarus much the same way he has approached Ukraine, seeing it as an integral part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Russia has used a bilateral “Union State” treaty from 1999 to boost its role in the country. If there were a crisis stemming from the election, Moscow could very well intervene to ensure that its control was intact.
How about the West?
The US and EU members, meanwhile, will not consider the election legitimate. But so far they aren’t saying all that much. Having already imposed a large number of sanctions against the economy and Belarusian leaders both before and after the 2020 crackdown, there is only so much they are able to do to affect Lukashenko’s control.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor of Eurasia Group.
Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk gestures while speaking during the weekly Ministerial meeting in Warsaw.
Poland scraps right to asylum
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in recent days unilaterally suspended the right to asylum for migrants crossing into Poland from neighboring Belarus. Tusk said the move is temporary, meant to stop Russia from directing flows of migrants towards Poland in an effort to destabilize the country. In recent years, Poland and Belarus have nearly come to blows over the issue.
The decision, which has raised concerns among human rights groups, comes just before a major EU summit focused in part on crafting a coherent migration policy that balances the bloc’s supranational human rights laws with national-level concerns about rapid immigration from the Global South. In recent weeks, Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, imposed fresh border checks of its own.
Note: Tusk is no ultra-nationalist. A centrist former European Council president, Tusk was elected last year on a wave of discontent with the long-ruling, far-right Law and Justice party. But in Poland – as elsewhere in the decade since a wave of refugees from the Syrian civil war arrived – calls for tighter immigration policy have moved from the right-wing fringe to the mainstream discourse.
All of this as the numbers are actually falling. Illegal crossings detected byEU border authorities fell 42% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period last year, authorities say. Migrant voyages via the Mediterranean fell drastically, but they in fact rose along eastern routes into the Czech Republic and Poland.
Looking ahead: EU leaders will meet to discuss the issue on Wednesday and Thursday.Servicemen of the 24th King Daniel of Galicia Separate Mechanized Brigade are firing a mortar at the positions of Russian troops near Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on August 14, 2024.
A buffer for Ukraine, new tensions with Belarus?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Ukraine’s military operation in Russia’s Kursk regionaims to establish a buffer zone to prevent further attacks by Moscow. Since Aug. 6, Ukrainian forces havedestroyed two key bridges and disrupted Russian supply lines. Further south, there has also been“intense military activity” near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, with the UN’s nuclear watchdog warning of deteriorating safety conditions.
For its part, Russia dismissed reports that Ukraine’s shock attack on Kurskderailed discussions on halting strikes near energy facilities. The Washington Post had claimed that delegations were set to meet in Qatar to negotiate a partial cease-fire, but Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied the existence of any talks.
Is Belarus next? On Sunday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed thata third of his country’s armed forces have been deployed along its border with Ukraine. Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Minsk’s move was in response to Ukraine’s “aggressive policy” of stationing over 120,000 troops on its side of the border. Lukashenko also said the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is heavily mined.
Ukrainian officials downplayed the situation. Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s border service,denied seeing any increase in Belarusian units or equipment at the border and criticized Lukashenko for “constantly escalating the situation with regularity to please the terrorist country.” We’re watching whether Belarus is bluffing, or whether this could open up another front in the war — and what moving the frontline to Belarus would mean for NATO allies like Poland.Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin drinks tea
Russian nukes move into NATO’s backyard
Russia made good on its promise to move some of its nuclear arsenal to Belarus, putting Russian-controlled nuclear weapons on NATO’s doorstep.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country is hosting the nuclear weapons in response to Poland’s aggression. Over the last two weeks, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki – who’s positioning himself as the national security candidate ahead of national elections in October – has sent thousands of troops to the border amid rising troop numbers and tensions.
But Russia and Belarus aren’t going to trigger the wrath of NATO lightly, and the transition of weapons, “appears to be largely a signal of strength to the West, rather than a preparation for their use,” says Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s Europe Head.
NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg denounced Moscow’s move, but Brideau thinks the response that matters most – to Putin at least – is President Joe Biden’s. “Washington has been cautious in its responses since the February 2022 invasion," Brideau says, noting that “we haven't seen much in terms of concrete US actions to the Russian government's threats about the deployment or use of nuclear weapons.”
Meanwhile, the US Embassy issued a security warning yesterday, urging Americans in Belarus to leave the country immediately. The move appears to be motivated by rising tensions in the region, not the nukes. We will be watching to see whether Russia’s latest move is severe enough to harden Biden’s rhetoric.
How do you think the US should respond? Let us know what you’d do in Biden’s shoes here.
Don't count Yevgeny Prigozhin out
In late June, the oligarch, longtime Putin ally, and Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin shocked the world (and Vladimir Putin) when he marched his troops through Russia in what appeared to be a coup against Moscow. Although he backed down, Marie Yovanovitch, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, thinks the story is far from over.
"There are probably a number of different phases of the Prigozhin rebellion," Yovanovitch tells Ian Bremmer in the latest episode of GZERO World, "and we're not at the end of it yet."
So why hasn't Putin more brutally punished Prigozhin and his followers for insubordination? And how should the West take advantage of this internal strife within Russia?
Watch this episode: Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
And watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
Why Russia is fighting in Ukraine without any allies
When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Russia stands alone.
From the Russian perspective, the Ukraine invasion is a battle for the survival of the country against NATO and the collective West, who, the Russia says, wants to destroy Russia and eliminate its influence around the world. But given the fact that virtually no allies have joined Russia in a fight it views as perfectly legitimate, does the Kremlin need a sense of reality and be more modest about what it thinks it can accomplish in the region?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and Kremlin ally, Dmitri Trenin, lays out the Russian view of the war and why the Kremlin feels it is fighting a war of existential importance.
“Russian is being ganged up against because of its determination to protect and defend its own national interest,” Trenin argues, “That’s how it’s seen.”
According to Trenin, Russia had no expectation of its formal allies, like Kazakhstan, picking up arms and fighting in Ukraine. The same goes for China, who Trenin says is major supporter of the Russian economy, but needs to protect its own interests militarily. Despite being increasingly isolated on the national stage, Trenin says that the stakes are so high, Russia will likely keep fighting until the bitter end.
“Either it protects its national security interest in Ukraine and wide in Europe’s east,” Trenin says, “Or the future of Russia will be very bleak.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television nationwide. Check local listings.
Russian tactical nukes in Belarus avoids direct escalation
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Trump arraigned, again. What's next?
I guess what's next is more cases. I mean, at the end of the day, I still think that the January 6th case, as well as the efforts to overturn the election outcome in Georgia are substantively more serious, at least in terms of what they will mean for people that do or don't decide to vote for Trump in a general election, assuming he gets the nomination, than how he mishandled classified documents and then lied to people around it. Especially because he doesn't really have a motive, aside from the fact that he's a child and thinks that he should have access to these documents. But I mean, the key point here is that we've got a justice overseeing the case that was appointed by Trump and will certainly be very, very favorable towards every delay the Trump lawyers want. So this is going to make lots of headlines, but is not going to move until after the nomination, probably not until after election. So again, it's a crazy thing to say, but he's more likely to get the nomination on the back of all this news than not.
Why is Russia planting tactical nukes in Belarus?
Well, I mean, it is one thing that they can do that implies symbolic pressure on the Ukrainians and on NATO and doesn't take significant direct escalatory steps that would threaten Russia. In other words, Putin understands that by making that move, he's dangerous, but he's not forcing NATO to do anything in response. Also, keep in mind, NATO's been escalating quite significantly over the past months, irrespective of Russia right now. I think that the Belarus issue is kind of a canard, it's not one of the serious headlines here. More serious is the dam getting blown up. More serious are F-16s eventually coming to the Ukrainians. More serious is how this counteroffensive goes and how much land the Ukrainians can take back. We'll watch that closely.
Is Serbia taking over sports?
I don't know. I mean, I thought Norway was for the beginning of the week, last week, especially when Ruud looked like he was going to take that first set at the French Open, but no, no. Now, with Jokić and Djokovic, it's true. It's got two big Serbs, and they're both very big Serbs. There's no question. I wouldn't say the Serbs are taking over sports, I'd say, "Congrats for a couple of big wins." I watched the French Open. It was cool to watch. And congratulations for someone who's been, politically, a little crazy, but plays tennis like nobody's business. I'm willing to differentiate those two things.