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Lithuanian army soldiers install razor wire on the border with Belarus in Druskininkai.
What We’re Watching: EU vs Belarus, US booster shots for all, Afghan lessons for Taiwan
Booster shots for Americans: After initially authorizing COVID vaccine booster shots for immunocompromised Americans, the Biden administration now says that most eligible people should get a booster beginning next month. It's quite an about-face for US health authorities, who just weeks ago insisted a top up was not necessary despite the spread of the more contagious delta variant, responsible for new COVID flare-ups in many parts of the country. Still, the US will likely face backlash from the World Health Organization, which has repeatedly asked nations with broad access to vaccines to hold off on booster shots until all countries inoculate at least 10 percent of their populations. The WHO's argument: if rich nations play me-first vaccine politics by doling out third doses instead of sending them to countries where most people haven't even had one dose, the virus will continue to mutate into new and potentially more lethal variants, making the pandemic harder to contain. But the US isn't the only country to go down the booster track: Israel has already distributed over 1 million, while Germany, France and the UK will begin in September.
EU-Belarus migrant row intensifies: One week after Lithuania's parliament voted to build a border fence with Belarus to stop non-EU migrants from entering the country, the plot thickens. Lithuania says it has caught Belarusian security agents red-handed, pushing migrants across the border. The Lithuanians say strongman Alexander Lukashenko has encouraged more than 4,000 migrants to cross so far this year as a reprisal for EU sanctions against Belarus, which the Belarusians deny. Meanwhile, Poland has sent almost 900 troops to the Belarusian border, which is being reinforced with barbed wire to keep migrants out. EU ministers are meeting Wednesday to decide what to do about Belarus weaponizing migration to punish the bloc for pushing back against Belarusian human rights abuses. But Brussels has little leverage with Lukashenko, who knows EU countries can't push him too hard because many need the Russian natural gas that transits through Belarusian territory on its way to Europe.
China taunts Taiwan with… Afghanistan: One country focused on the US' calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan is China, which has skin in the game. Just hours after the Taliban swept back to power, the editor-in-chief of a hawkish Chinese state media outlet tweeted that Taiwan "must be trembling" and fearing that America may not defend Taipei from an eventual Chinese invasion. The next day, China's military deployed fighter jets, anti-submarine aircraft and combat ships to conduct drills near the self-governing island — which mainland China has long claimed as part of its territory — in response to unspecified "provocations" from Washington and Taipei, perhaps related to the Biden administration's recent approval to sell Taiwan $750 million worth of weapons. The Taiwanese, for their part, brushed off the Afghan analogy, arguing that America will have their back as long as they avoid the domestic turmoil that preceded the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Either way, with a lot on his plate, it's unlikely that Xi Jinping will actually seek to reunify the island with the mainland by force anytime soon. But flexing China's military muscle across the Taiwan Strait is always a winner with Chinese nationalists, who welcome Xi's aggressive posturing on Taiwan.
Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the deteriorating human rights situation in Belarus, Delta variant woes, and Lebanon one year after the Beirut blast.
An Olympian refuses to return home to Belarus and an anti-Lukashenko activist has been found dead in Ukraine. What's going on?
Yeah. That anti-Lukashenko activist was found hanged in a park in Kiev. Once again, not exactly likely a suicide. These anti-Lukashenko activists have a way of turning up injured or dead. It's a horrible regime. Their friends are limited largely to the Russians. That's about it. The economic pressure is growing from Europe, from the United States, very coordinated. But the problem is a very hard to do much to Lukashenko when he has not only support of his military, but also the support of most of the workers in the country who aren't prepared to strike because they want to ensure they still have jobs. I expect this is going to continue, but human rights abuses are stacking up. It is nice to see that the Americans and the Europeans are coordinating policy as well as they have been.
How has Delta variant added to the COVAX woes?
Well, we've seen a lot more cases. I mean Florida, for example, right now, highest level of cases since this pandemic has started. Hospitalizations too. But not deaths. Death numbers across the country are still comparatively very low. That's also true in Europe. Why is that? That's because even though vaccines overall are not where they need to be in the United States, the people that are most vulnerable to dying, the seriously elderly, those with pre-existing conditions are also among the most likely, sensibly, to get vaccines. And so it was a consequence. Death numbers are still mercifully comparatively low, and I suspect they're going to stay low. Having said that, we don't know much about long COVID. We do know about 50% of the people that get symptoms have those symptoms persist. The healthcare costs of that, the psychological costs of that, the reality of the quality of life, it's deteriorating for a much longer period of time. That's what we worry about the most. The thing I'm most worried about globally is China, where they're locking down big cities in part because they have no tolerance for the pandemic to grow in China. But also because their vaccines really don't work against Delta variant. That could slow down the second largest economy in the world. Watch that over the next few months.
A year after the Beirut blast, what has changed in Lebanon? One of the biggest non-nuclear blasts in global history.
Answer is very little has changed. The investigation is going nowhere. One of the few things that various factions around the government can agree with is that they don't want to be tried for corruption by independent investigators so they've been slow rolling it. Economic collapse, not much international support. Emmanuel Macron, you'll remember the French president, went down said we're going to help these people. There's been very little international aid and no new conference trying to raise that support for Lebanon. They are close to becoming a failed state and maybe not a surprise given how bad both COVID and the financial crisis has hit a country that was already among the most poorly governed in the region and the world.
Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
Frequently called Europe's last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko Lukashenko has sailed smoothly to victory in all six elections he's stood in, despite widespread corruption and fraud in each one. But in 2020 the biggest threat so far to Lukashenko's tight grip on government came in an unlikely package—a former schoolteacher and stay at home mom, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. After the election result was finalized, Lukashenko claimed victory, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets, and Tsikhanouskaya leads the opposition in exile. Lukashenko recently took his boldest move yet, diverting a plane en route from Greece to Lithuania to arrest another Belarusian dissident. Ian Bremmer discusses whether a democratic transition is remotely possible in Belarus on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
- Life under dictatorship in Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Flight diversion in Belarus is a criminal act - GZERO Media ›
- What the EU will — and won't — do about Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions - GZERO Media ›
Is there actually a bromance between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko?
Do Russian president Vladimir Putin and Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko actually have a good relationship, as photos of them together on Putin's yacht would suggest? Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented, "You know, the strangest thing, maybe the most obvious thing, is that the whole world understands that these two people are not friends. They are making this picture to try to persuade the Russians and the world that they are together." The reality, in her opinion, is that Moscow may be looking for suitable candidates to replace Lukashenko in a new election, because the crisis in Belarus is very inconvenient for the Kremlin. Tsikhanouskaya would prefer that Russia not interfere with Belarusian politics, she said in a conversation with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
Will sanctions work against Lukashenko?
Are the European Union's sanctions against Belarus effective? The initial European response to the fraudulent election in Belarus was swift, but didn't go far enough, said opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, emboldening President Alexander Lukashenko to think he could continue to act with impunity and even hijack a Ryanair plane. The EU has stated that while it wants to impose sanctions that will punish the Belarusian president and the government, they don't want to hurt the Belarusian people - but Tsikhanouskaya affirmed that sanctions are the leverage that people on the ground are asking for. "People don't feel safe, and they want to end the regime as soon as possible," she told Ian Bremmer in an interview on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
Is there a path to democracy for Europe's last dictatorship, Belarus? Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discusses her hopes and fears for the country with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. President Alexander Lukashenko has maintained a tight grip on power in Belarus for the last 26 years and rigged the results of his last election which led to widespread protest and unrest in his country, though few consequences globally. But will he now be held accountable after diverting a flight between two European capitals to arrest a dissident journalist? And just how close are he and Vladimir Putin?
- What We're Watching: Brussels vs Belarus, South Africa's COVID ... ›
- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: A Belarusian opposition leader's fight for democracy ... ›
- Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius on Lithuania, Belarus, NATO ... ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
Life under dictatorship in Belarus
What should you put in your bag before leaving home in Belarus nowadays if you openly criticize the government? Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya recommends packing an extra pair of pants and socks in case you get kidnapped or thrown in jail because under strongman President Alexander Lukashenko, you "feel that you don't have rights at all."
Her conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of an interview on the upcoming episode of GZERO World, which begins airing on US public television Friday, June 11. Check local listings.
- Flight diversion in Belarus is a criminal act - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: EU needs Belarus for Russian gas - GZERO Media ›
- What the EU will — and won't — do about Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
- Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko - GZERO Media ›
- Belarusian great-grandmother Nina Baginskaya is one of Lukashenko’s fiercest critics - GZERO Media ›
What the EU will — and won’t — do about Belarus
The European Union on Monday agreed to sanction Belarus for having used a fighter jet and a bomb threat to ground a Vilnius-bound EU commercial airplane in order to arrest a dissident journalist. Along with the usual strongly-worded statements and in an unusually swift move, the bloc banned its sole airline from EU airspace and airports, and asked EU airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace.
Brussels also expanded current economic and travel sanctions against the regime led by strongman President Alexander Lukashenko. But tougher measures than that? Unlikely.
These garden-variety EU sanctions won't accomplish much. They will make it harder for Belarusians — including the president's cronies — to do business with and travel to the EU. But they won't persuade Lukashenko to release 26-year-old Roman Protasevich, the wanted man aboard the plane.
The founder of the independent news site Nextra is one of Lukashenko's top critics in exile. The president holds Protasevich personally responsible for (virtually) organizing mass street protests last summer, an offense that could put him behind bars for 15 years.
A calculated risk. For Lukashenko, aware that pulling off such an audacious stunt would outrage EU leaders, the benefit of silencing an influential adversary clearly outweighed the risk of triggering strong backlash in the form of sanctions, a storm he's successfully weathered in the past.
In fact, since the last time the EU imposed sanctions — in response to his crackdown on protesters and his refusal to re-run a rigged election — Lukashenko has intensified his crackdown on dissidents and the media. Just last week he passed a law that authorizes police to shoot protesters.
Why does the EU have so little leverage with Belarus? Brussels has the same problem with Minsk it has with Moscow, which we've written about before. The EU needs Russian energy to keep the lights on, and a decent amount of its imported oil and gas flows through pipelines that traverse... Belarus.
If the EU really wanted to hurt Lukashenko, it would temporarily stop buying the Russian oil and gas that Belarus collects handsome transit fees for. But the EU would then be shooting itself in the foot, not to mention that such a move — perhaps supported by France — would be fiercely opposed by Germany and Eastern European member states that rely on that route for their energy. It would also mean picking yet another fight with the more formidable Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, whether that option would be enough to get Lukashenko to back off is unlikely, given that in the past he has regularly threatened to cut off the EU from the Russian oil and gas spigot when Brussels pushed him too hard on democracy and human rights.
"Cockroach" economy. Finally, the Belarusian economy has a lot in common with Russia's, which is often compared by some economists to a cockroach: primitive in many ways, but highly resilient to pain. Its main export is potash fertilizer, which Belarus can easily sell to other countries to offset a possible EU ban. Foreign direct investment currently stands at a dismal 2 percent of GDP, so any trade restrictions arising from sanctions would have little effect.
Regardless, the EU has to do something because it can't afford the cost of inaction. Even weak sanctions will send a message, and cause enough pain for Lukashenko to think twice about hijacking an EU flight if an exiled opposition leader happens to be on the manifest.
More importantly, though, taking no action at all would show that Brussels not only pays lip service to its own commitment to the rule of law, but is also powerless to protect EU citizens from brazen acts of state-sponsored terror. And it would embolden Lukashenko to crack down even harder on those who still oppose him in Belarus and abroad.- Putin is still winning - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
- The great Belarus deal - GZERO Media ›
- Life under dictatorship in Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus foreign minister's "sudden" death drives speculation - GZERO Media ›
- Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko - GZERO Media ›
- Belarusian great-grandmother Nina Baginskaya is one of Lukashenko’s fiercest critics - GZERO Media ›