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Trump's Poor Response to National Protests, WHO Withdrawal Mid-COVID
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, provides his perspective on the big news in US politics:
How is the White House responding to the mass protests and riots happening nationwide?
Well, in no significant organized way. A lot of presidential tweets on all sides of the issue but leaning towards law and order and criticizing ANTIFA. He has not showed an inclination to try and heal the nation, which is not something that's in his nature. So, no real organized, clear response.
What does America gain and lose by leaving the W.H.O.?
Well, it really gains nothing by leaving. Risks losing access to clinical trials, possibly to drugs that would be helpful in the fight against coronavirus and certainly not going to help get a lot of answers on China's response. So, it's a spiteful thing that is not going to bring the United States a lot of good results.
Where is the US in the fight against the coronavirus?
Well, we are up and down. We are doing well in the Northeast, in New Jersey and Connecticut and New York, cases going down, things looking better. But some places in the Midwest like Wisconsin and elsewhere, cases on the rise. So, we do not have it beaten and there is some risk of further outbreaks and spread from all of these riots and people not social distancing.
Will the US stave off depression? Will Biden unite Democrats?
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, provides his perspective on the news in US politics: Is the US doing enough to fight off a prolonged recession or depression?
I'd say the Fed, the central bank is doing enough with its giant programs that it has rolled out over the last couple of weeks. Congress did a good job with the first $2 trillion package. Needs to do more in help for small businesses, States and localities, and hospitals. So, no partisan fighting, more passing of bills.
What does Joe Biden need to do to unite the Democratic party now that Bernie Sanders is out?
I don't think he has to do a ton, there's a lot of unity to beat Donald Trump. And a lot of the hard core, Bernie Dems are in blue states like New York and California. That said, it would be good if he reached out to them on health care and the environment in ways that don't alienate moderate suburban swing voters.
Is the new OPEC oil deal to cut production a big win for Trump and the US economy?
Well, it's something of a win, although 10 million barrels cut does not match the drop in demand. Oil prices stop their tanking, but they're certainly not rising. So, I'd say a moderate win for Trump, a moderate win for the US economy, but not a blockbuster
Coronavirus Update, US Congress Response & Legislation
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, provides his perspective on the coronavirus-related news in US politics: What's the coronavirus update?
Well, we've gotten at least a little bit of good news that perhaps the rate of deaths in New York City is plateauing and may start to come down. God willing, we'll see if that comes to pass. Also, some indications that if we keep social distancing in place through the end of May, we could see fewer deaths than we worried about and fewer hospital beds need it. So, God willing, that happens.
Do I expect to see any significant movement in the coming weeks that would impact the economy?
I think yes, Congress will at some point come back with another coronavirus package that would be more money for small businesses, more money for states, possibly some infrastructure, but I doubt it.
Is there any other legislation coming out of Washington besides coronavirus?
No, there's not. Congress isn't even in D.C. They'll come back just to do another coronavirus package. But nobody is particularly interested in anything else at this point.
Coronavirus in the US: Stimulus Payments; Biden-Sanders; Curve
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, provides his perspective on the coronavirus-related news in US politics: What's the coronavirus update? Are we bending the curve?
No, we're not. Still exponential growth in places like New Orleans and Detroit. New York City is still a mess. So, unlike South Korea, we have not started to bend the curve.
When should Americans start to expect to get their stimulus checks or rescue checks?
Those with direct deposit arrangements with the IRS should see them in the next couple of weeks. If you get paper checks, it could take longer. That's why some are suggesting the government should look into using online payment apps to make it faster.
How are Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders campaigning in the coronavirus era?
Well, very awkwardly, they're trying to do some online town halls and the rest. But it's very difficult to campaign in this environment. Biden is now trying to be more visible and more critical of the president on his coronavirus response. We'll see how that goes. The nomination is pretty much his. It's just a question of when Bernie drops out.
Ben White on US Elections & the Coronavirus Bill
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, provides his perspective on the news in US politics:
What were the main takeaways from the first one on one Biden-Sanders debate?
Well, the takeaway is that Biden did just fine. No major blow-ups. Bernie Sanders needed to have a breakthrough moment to stop Biden's momentum. He didn't get it. It seems increasingly clear that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for president, which is what we all thought from the start.
Is it possible that the coronavirus could delay the November elections?
Some rumors floating around about that, that President Trump could try to delay the election. He doesn't have the authority to do that. So that's not going to happen. It could be that the vote is spread out over a couple of days, if we're still in a bad virus situation and have social distancing and other measures could have to be taken, but the vote will happen in November.
What's in the current coronavirus bill before Congress?
Well, it's passed the House. Now before the Senate. It mainly focuses on sick leave and unemployment insurance. There are some questions whether the Senate might want changes. The White House and Treasury are already working on another bill that would be more directed towards bailing out businesses like airlines and hotels. So, we've got to get through this one and then we'll move to the next stimulus measure.
Ben White's New Hampshire primary predictions
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico:
What do I expect to see out of New Hampshire on Tuesday?
Well, it's a close race between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg for first. I think Sanders wins, Buttigieg comes in second. Amy Klobuchar might surge to third. And then it's a fight for fourth and fifth between Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Biden's got to hustle down to South Carolina after this. He better win there or he's in real trouble.
What's the deal with Rudy Giuliani and the DOJ?
Apparently, Giuliani is going in there and sharing information about what he's found on the Ukraine interfering in the 2016 election, which it didn't do. And information about Joe Biden and Hunter Biden, all these unproven allegations. But he's in there sharing that info.
Is it legal for President Trump to be firing all these impeachment witnesses?
I think it's legal. Most of these people serve at the pleasure of the president. But firing Sondland and Vindman and Vindman's brother all looks like complete retribution for people who just complied with subpoenas and went up to the Hill to tell the truth. It certainly doesn't look good politically for the president.
Ben White's Iowa caucus predictions
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, with his Special Iowa Caucus edition of US Politics In :60 Seconds!
So, it's finally here. Voters are actually voting, or I should say caucusing, to be more precise. So, what's going to happen?
Typically, the conventional wisdom is there's three tickets out of Iowa. I don't think that's going to be true this year. I think there's a pretty good chance that Bernie Sanders comes in first. I think that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren will be fighting for second place. Klobuchar and Buttigieg fighting for third and fourth. But I think the result will be kind of muddled. So, I think there may actually be six tickets coming out of Iowa.
You got Sanders, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Yang. So, we all just move on to New Hampshire and that might not clear things up either. This is one of the more muddled Democratic fields in a long time. There are a lot of Democrats who don't want to see Sanders get the nomination. So, there'll be tons of jockeying. Then we get to Super Tuesday and then we get the Bloomberg effect. How many delegates does he get? Does he take some away from Biden? So, very important to watch Iowa tonight, see if Sanders has momentum. But even if Bernie Sanders wins, he might not win by a lot. And I don't think it's going to tell us all that much. So, we'll all just move on down the road.
Bolton's book & impeachment; EU carbon tax; presidential race
Ben White, Chief Economic Correspondent for Politico, answers your most burning questions on US Politics!
Is there anything in the John Bolton book manuscript that could be big for the impeachment trial?
Well, absolutely. The revelation that Bolton says that Trump made it clear that holding up Ukraine was in return for a Biden investigation is big. It means that Republicans might want to hear from Bolton, which might mean more witnesses. So, yes, it's a big deal.
Are the US and EU on track for a trade war over the EU carbon tax?
Definitely possible. It's going to slow down any agreement between the US and EU on AG and other purchases, and it could lead Trump to renew his threat of auto tariffs on the EU.
Is there any candidate breaking out among the Democratic field in Iowa?
No, there's not. There were a ton of confusing polls over the weekend. Some show Biden with a lead, some show Bernie with a big lead. I think it really depends on turnout, which could be huge there. A huge turnout would be good for Bernie. But I think we could get a wash in the early states and then it really will come down to Super Tuesday and beyond.