Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
ICC warrants for Bibi, Gallant will test respect for international law
The International Criminal Court on Thursday issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of “crimes against humanity and war crimes” in Gaza — including using “starvation as a method of warfare” and “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”
The court also issued a warrant for Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ armed wing who Israel says was killed in an airstrike. The ICC said it’s not in a position to determine if Deif is dead.
The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are emblematic of the growing schism between Israel and the international community amid the Gaza war, and perhaps the sharpest rebuke yet of the Jewish state’s prosecution of the conflict. The move came as the death toll in Gaza surpassed 44,000, according to Palestinian officials.
Will Netanyahu be arrested? Not in Israel or the US, neither of which belongs to the ICC or recognizes its authority. Both countries swiftly condemned the court over the warrants.
The ICC also doesn’t have a police force and relies on member states to make arrests — and the court doesn’t try defendants in absentia. But Netanyahu and Gallant could potentially be arrested and tried if they travel to any of the 124 countries that are ICC member states, including the entire EU.
These warrants will pose a test for Israel’s Western allies if Netanyahu ever plans to visit, and raises questions over how they should interact with the Israeli leader more generally.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the ICC arrest warrants are “binding” on all countries in the bloc given they’re party to the Rome Statute — the international treaty that established the court. Canada and several European countries have already signaled they’ll abide by the warrants.
We’ll be watching for signs of how these countries plan to handle relations with Netanyahu moving forward — and whether they’ll choose maintaining close ties with Israel over upholding international law.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
Will Netanyahu survive the Gaza leak scandal?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in hot water (again). An aide to Netanyahu has been arrested over a leak of classified documents that an Israeli court says may have compromised efforts to release hostages in Gaza and threatened national security.
The court partially lifted a gag order on Sunday that revealed the aide as Eliezer Feldstein, a spokesperson in Netanyahu’s office.
The documents were leaked to foreign media outlets that published articles on them in early September at a key moment in negotiations for a cease-fire deal involving the release of hostages. One report from the UK-based Jewish Chronicle, which has since been retracted, suggested that Hamas was planning to smuggle hostages into Egypt. Another, published by the German tabloid Bild, said Hamas was prolonging talks to foment divisions within Israel.
At the time, Netanyahu was facing mass protests after the deaths of six hostages in Gaza. Critics of Netanyahu say the leaked documents backed up the prime minister’s hardline stance on truce talks and offered him political cover for not reaching an agreement.
Opposition leader Yair Lapidsays Netanyahu is either complicit or incompetent and, therefore, “not qualified to lead.” Hostage families are also up in arms.
This scandal comes after a series of wins for Netanyahu, including the deaths of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, and after his approval numbers appeared to be rebounding. Opponents of Netanyahu say he’s prolonged the war for political reasons, as far-right members of his fragile coalition have threatened to quit the government if a peace deal was reached.
Netanyahu denies involvement in the leak and much is still unknown due to the gag order — including the identities of several other suspects. We’ll be watching how this unravels in the days ahead, and whether it has the potential to threaten Netanyahu’s grip on power.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, August 19, 2024.
Blinken urges Netanyahu to ‘capitalize’ on Hamas leader’s death
The FBI on Tuesday announced it’s investigating a leak of US intelligence documents that offer details on Israel’s potential plans for retaliation against Iran over its missile attack earlier this month. The highly classified documents were shared on an Iran-linked Telegram account.
The leak puts the US in an awkward position as the intelligence pertains to spying on an ally. It’s not uncommon for governments to gather intel on allies, but such activities can still be embarrassing when revealed.
As the Biden administration scrambles to discover how the documents were leaked, it’s also pushing for a cease-fire in the Middle East amid Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is reportedly considering an Egyptian plan for a two-week cease-fire with Hamas, which would see half a dozen hostages exchanged in the process. It’s possible a smaller agreement like this could gain momentum after months of failed international efforts to secure a lasting peace.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday and urged him to capitalize on the recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza in a way that provides lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
We’ll be watching to see if the US reveals more about the source of the leak and whether Israel shows any signs of accepting a cease-fire proposal.
Palestinians walk during the evacuation of the Jabalia refugee camp and the Sheikh Radwan and Abu Iskandar neighborhoods in the northern Gaza Strip on October 12, 2024.
Israel’s "generals’ plan" for northern Gaza could worsen already dire humanitarian situation
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering a plan to empty northern Gaza of civilians, seal the area off as a military zone, cut off aid, and starve out the remaining Hamas militants. The proposal, put forward by retired generals, is being called the “generals’ plan.”
As Netanyahu mulls over the plan, many Palestinians in northern Gaza are refusing to listen to recent Israeli evacuation orders — fearing that they won’t be able to return. There are also those, such as the sick and disabled, who can’t easily leave their homes. If the generals’ plan is implemented, anyone remaining in the area sealed off by the IDF would be considered a combatant and could be killed.
Laying the groundwork. Based on its recent actions in northern Gaza, the Israeli military already appears to be beginning “an effort to implement the so-called generals' plan,” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst for Eurasia Group.
Israel launched a new offensive in northern Gaza earlier this month, making it even more difficult to get aid in, and the UN’s human rights office warns that the IDF “appears to be cutting off North Gaza completely.” Top rights groups like Amnesty International are calling on the Jewish state to rescind recent evacuation orders, referring to them as “Israel’s euphemism for forced displacement.”
“A new displacement from northern Gaza or any siege there would only worsen the already devastating humanitarian situation,” says Meranto. “If Israel follows through on the plan in the north, there’s a risk the military would seek to incrementally employ a similar approach across other parts of the Gaza Strip.”
Meanwhile, the Biden administration on Tuesday told Israel that it has 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or the US could place restrictions on military aid. Such warnings from Washington could lead Israel to rethink the generals’ plan, says Meranto.
A representation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as Pro-Palestinian protesters rally against Israel's strikes in Gaza and Lebanon during demonstrations in New York City, on Sept. 26, 2024.
Palestine and Lebanon’s leaders address UNGA ahead of Netanyahu’s arrival
Abbas then laid out a 12-point policy for what is needed “immediately and on day one after the war ends.” The plan included a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, an end to the “military aggression by settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem,” humanitarian aid, and the return of displaced peoples. He called for Palestine to be given full membership to the UN, and disparaged the US for being “the only member in the Security Council that voted against granting the state of Palestine full membership.”
Later that evening, Lebanon’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bouhabib called on Israel to adopt an immediate cease-fire and halt its strikes within Lebanese borders, noting that the cause of the current conflict was Israel's ongoing occupation. "The shortest path for the return [of displaced Israelis in the North]," he said, "is a comprehensive, immediate cease-fire as stipulated in the US-Franco declaration yesterday ... as part of a comprehensive framework accompanied by clear international guarantees, transparency, and a definitive end to land, sea, and air incursions and breaches of Lebanese sovereignty."
Both speeches came as the US, France, and several Arab nations tried to use the tail end of the UN General Assembly to broker a temporary Israel to agree to a cease-fire with Lebanon.
Meanwhile, protesters began marching outside the UN security perimeter on Thursday in anticipation of Friday's appearance at UNGA by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has instructed his military to keep fighting “with full force” in Lebanon. Netanyahu said on Thursday that "we will not stop until we achieve our goals, first and foremost returning the residents of the north safely to their homes."
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks next to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel , 28 October 2023.
Will Netanyahu fire his defense minister?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly considering firing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and replacing him with New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar.
Netanyahu denied he was in negotiations with Sa’ar, but he has been at odds with Gallant for months as the devastating war against Hamas in Gaza rages on. Gallant, who was fired by Netanyahu as defense minister last year before being reinstated two weeks later, has been deeply critical of the prime minister’s prosecution of the war in Gaza — particularly for not accepting a cease-fire deal that would bring hostages home.
Sa’ar, who is a member of the opposition at the moment, would reportedly get the role in exchange for joining Netanyahu’s fragile coalition — a move that would give the prime minister more of a safety net in parliament with more seats. But hostage families are urging Sa’ar against making a deal with Netanyahu, accusing his government of abandoning their relatives.
This news also comes as the US warns Netanyahu against sparking a wider conflict in the region by going to war in Lebanon amid ongoing exchanges of cross-border fire with Hezbollah.
We’ll be watching this space closely in the days ahead.
What is the Philadelphi corridor, and why is Bibi so fixated on it?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent weeks has repeatedly emphasized the need for Israel to retain control of the Philadelphi corridor. This has emerged as a major obstacle to a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Here’s a breakdown of the corridor’s significance and the implications of Netanyahu’s stance.
What is the Philadelphi corridor? It is a narrow buffer zone — roughly 100 yards wide and 9 miles long — that runs along Gaza’s border with Egypt and includes the Rafah border crossing. The corridor was established via a landmark 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. Philadelphi is the Israeli code name for the area, while Egypt refers to it as Salah al-Din.
The Philadelphi corridor was under Israel’s control until 2005, when Israeli forces withdrew from Gaza. It then fell under the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority and Egypt — until Hamas took over Gaza in 2007.
As part of a May offensive, Israel seized control of the Philadelphi corridor and the Rafah crossing — moves that raised tensions between the Israeli and Egyptian governments.
As a vital route for aid into Gaza, the Rafah crossing is considered a “lifeline” for Gaza. Before May, it was the only Gaza border crossing not directly controlled by the Jewish state, which has imposed a blockade on the enclave — with Egypt’s support — starting in 2007. Since Oct. 7, it’s become even more difficult for aid to get into Gaza and for people to leave the enclave.
Why is Philadelphi so important to Netanyahu? The PM contends that Israel must maintain a presence in the corridor to prevent the area from being used by Hamas for arms smuggling. “Gaza must be demilitarized, and this can only happen if the Philadelphi corridor remains under firm control,” Netanyahu said Wednesday.
Though the focus on the corridor has intensified in recent days, particularly after the killing of six hostages in Gaza, Netanyahu signaled a desire for Israeli control of the Egypt-Gaza border as far back as late December. The corridor “must be in our hands,” Netanyahu said then.
What do other Israeli politicians say? Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid have both criticized Netanyahu’s stance on the Philadelphi corridor.
“It is too late for the hostages who were murdered in cold blood. The hostages who remain in Hamas captivity must be returned home,” Gallant said in a tweet on Sunday that also called for the security cabinet to reverse a decision to keep Israeli forces in the corridor. Lapid decried Netanyahu’s position as “baseless political spin” that’s “disconnected from reality.”
Top rival Benny Gantz, along with other critics, have accused Netanyahu of prioritizing his political survival over the country’s best interests. The far-right flank of Netanyahu’s coalition has threatened to collapse the government if a truce is reached with Hamas.
What does this mean for cease-fire talks? Hamas says there will be no deal if Israeli forces remain in the Philadelphi corridor. The Palestinian militant group has pushed for all Israeli troops to withdraw from Gaza as part of a cease-fire agreement.
Following the recent killings of hostages in Gaza, mass numbers of Israelis have flooded the country’s streets and demanded a hostage deal. But Netanyahu has refused to budge on an Israeli presence in the corridor. Family members of hostages in recent days have accused him of blocking a deal and condemning their loved ones to die over his refusal to pull troops from the Philadelphi corridor.
The Israeli PM’s public comments on this issue have also reportedly contradicted private indications from Israeli negotiators to international mediators that Israel is willing to withdraw troops from the corridor as part of a phased cease-fire agreement.
And in a sign that the US government is getting fed up with Netanyahu, President Joe Biden on Monday said the Israeli leader is not doing enough to secure a cease-fire deal.
With neither side willing to make significant compromises, talks remain at an impasse, and the war in Gaza is poised to continue for the foreseeable future.
“There’s not a deal in the making,” Netanyahu told Fox News on Thursday. “Unfortunately, it’s not close.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands before a map of the Gaza Strip, telling viewers how Hamas has imported arms into the territory since Israel's withdrawal in 2005, during a news conference in Jerusalem, September 2, 2024.
Why Netanyahu won’t budge
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has thrown cold water on rising calls for a cease-fire deal with Hamas, despite facing mass protests in the wake of the killings of six Oct. 7 hostages in Gaza. “No one is more committed to freeing the hostages than me. But no one will preach to me,” Netanyahu said on Monday.
Netanyahu also said that Israel would not give up control of the Philadelphi corridor, a narrow strip of land along the Egypt-Gaza border that was created as a demilitarized zone via the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt in 1979. The Philadelphi corridor — which was seized by Israel in May, to Egypt’s dismay — has emerged as a major sticking point in truce talks.
Netanyahu insists that Israel must remain in the Philadelphi corridor to prevent Hamas from using it for arms smuggling. Meanwhile, Hamas says there will be no cease-fire if Israeli forces remain in the corridor.
Benny Gantz, head of the National Unity party and a top rival of the prime minister, on Tuesday pushed back against Netanyahu’s assertion that the Philadelphi corridor posed an existential threat to Israel. Gantz also accused Netanyahu of putting his own interests before Israel’s, an allegation that the Israeli leader has increasingly faced throughout the war in Gaza.
The far-right flank of Netanyahu’s flimsy coalition has threatened to collapse the government if a cease-fire agreement is reached. Critics of Netanyahu, like Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, say he’s standing in the way of a deal to remain in power.
As he faces increasing pressure to bring the hostages home, we’ll be watching to see if Netanyahu is willing to shift on issues like the Philadelphi corridor in the days ahead.