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US President Joe Biden during a campaign stop ahead of the midterm elections in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
What We're Watching: Biden's secret papers, Ukrainians in Oklahoma, Tigrayan demobilization
Check your closets for classified docs
It’s been a rollercoaster kind of week for US President Joe Biden.
On the downside, it seems he just plumb forgot to return not one but two batches of classified documents from his days as VP. The first cache was reportedly found on Nov. 2 – yes, you read that right, just days before the midterms – but not reported publicly until Monday. Then, on Wednesday, reports emerged of a second tranche of unreturned docs discovered at another location. Biden, keen to distinguish himself from the way former President Donald Trump handled his own classified documents scandal, said his lawyers followed protocol and immediately contacted the National Archives about returning the documents. A Justice Department review is underway.
The good news this week for Biden is that for the first time since the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in Aug. 2021, his approval rating (46%) is now higher than his disapproval (45%), according to an Economist/YouGov survey. Why the uptick? Biden has signed major pieces of legislation like CHIPS and the Inflation Reduction Act in recent months. Meanwhile, Republicans blew their chance for a “red wave” in the midterms, and the GOP's chaotic election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy shows just how deep divisions in the party are. Still, House GOP members are hellbent on investigating Biden over a range of issues including, perhaps, the newfound classified files. Biden has had a good nine months — could the GOP-controlled house change his fortunes?
Ukrainian fighters headed for Oklahoma
As Russia and Ukraine argue over who is winning the battle for strategically important towns in the Donbas region, there are new signs that US support for Ukraine’s defense is intensifying. The US Defense Department has announced it will welcome up to 100 Ukrainian soldiers to a training facility in Oklahoma next week to teach them over the coming months how to use and maintain a truck-mounted Patriot missile defense system (or battery) that the US has agreed to provide to Ukraine’s military. (The US is supplying one battery, and Germany will provide a second.) It’s a significant step toward helping Ukraine establish a unified air defense system at a time when Russia is relying heavily on long-range artillery to target critical Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure as well as Ukrainian cities. This isn’t the first time Ukrainian soldiers have been invited to the US for training, but it remains unusual. The US also says it will train hundreds more Ukrainians in Germany in the use of other powerful weapons.
The long road to peace in Ethiopia
Tigrayan rebels on Wednesday started handing over heavy weapons to Ethiopia's federal government, as mandated by a cease-fire agreement signed two months ago. The deal ended more than two years of armed conflict and a humanitarian crisis that has killed thousands, left hundreds of thousands close to famine, and displaced millions. So far, so good, right? Not so fast. First, aid delivery and services have resumed but remain far below what's needed for a region that has been clobbered by fighting and cut off from the rest of Ethiopia since Nov. 2020. Second, before signing on the dotted line, the Tigrayans demanded the withdrawal of troops from neighboring Eritrea, who have been on-again, off-again fighting on behalf of the Ethiopian government for much of the war. Not all the foreign soldiers have left, and Asmara — which did not join the peace talks in South Africa — has been silent for months. Demobilization of the rebels is a big step toward ending the conflict, but peace will remain elusive until all of Tigray is fully back to business and Eritrea is finally out.Biden's gas prices woes
The Graphic Truth: Biden's gas price woes
Polls show US voters rank the economy as their No. 1 issue ahead of the Nov. 8 midterms. Many blame Democrats for today’s inflationary pressures despite a bid by the White House to dub increased prices at the pump as “Putin’s price hike.” But even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent global supply chains into a tizzy, Biden’s disapproval rating was way higher than he would’ve liked. We track the correlation between it and US gas prices since the beginning of the year.
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Biden's first midterms: How does he stack up?
The Graphic Truth — Biden's first midterms: How does he stack up?
US midterm elections are always seen as a referendum on the president’s performance. When voters head to the polls this November, it will be the first time they’ve been able to cast a ballot at the national level since Joe Biden won the presidency in 2020. Things aren’t looking great for him: Biden’s approval rating hovers at 42%, and polls suggest that Democrats are slated to lose control of the House of Representatives. But this pessimistic forecast is not unique to Biden. Since Franklin D. Roosevelt occupied the White House (1933-1945), only two presidents (Clinton and W. Bush) have made gains in the lower chamber after midterm elections. We take a look at how Biden stacks up compared to his five predecessors less than two months before the midterms.
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Are we in a recession?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his analysis on US politics.
When is a recession, not a recession?
The Biden administration this week has spent an extraordinary amount of time refuting the notion that the US economy is in a recession. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen on Sunday pointed to strong job numbers and consumer spending as signals that the US economy continues to grow. But plenty of analysts have started to question how strong and durable that growth is in the face of rising prices and Fed induced interest rate hikes. Later this week, the government will release its estimate for second quarter economic growth. The first quarter data showed that the economy shrank by 1.5% and supply chain problems wreaked havoc on economic output and some estimates of second quarter growth suggest there could be another quarter of contraction in the cards.
There's a general rule of thumb that two quarters of negative growth mean that the US economy is in a recession, but that is not a hard and fast rule. The last officially designated recession in the US only lasted for two months as the economy came to a quick halt and then started to rebounding quickly in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. So are we in a recession right now? No one knows yet. The designation is not made by the government or by the media, but by a committee of economists at a nonprofit research organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research. The committee takes into account, a number of economic indicators, the most important being the government's quarterly economic growth estimates. And they usually make their determination of the troughs and peaks in the growth cycle with significant lags.
Recent announcements have come between three and four months after the beginning or the end of a recession. But in 2008, the committee did not declare the economy to be in a recession until a full year after the start date. And they didn't announce the beginning of the 2001 recession until it was already over in November. So why does this matter so much for the administration? Because they remember a historical episode from the 1990s when the NBER declared in April 1991, the start of what turned out to be a mild recession that had begun in the summer of 1990, but they did not declare the end date of that recession, which turned out to have been in March of 1991 until December of 1992, after the presidential election that the incumbent President George H. W. Bush had lost. The perception of a weak economy, hobbled President Bush.
And so this White House wants to do everything it can to control the narrative around the economy, even if avoiding the "r word" won't change the facts in the ground that the public broadly thinks the economy's in the dumps, giving the president low approval for his handling of the economy and telling pollsters that the rising prices are weighing on their confidence in the economic outlook. It's clear they sense the political vulnerability here and are very sensitive to prevent anyone from saying the word “recession”, unless they absolutely have to, but unfortunately for them wishing for a strong economy won't make it so.
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Japan's assertive foreign and economic policy reflect Abe's legacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Japanese people mourning former PM Shinzo Abe, how will his death further influence Japan's politics?
Well, we've already seen a fairly easy majority win by Abe's own Liberal Democratic Party. He had been stumping for them when he was assassinated. His two legacies are things that the Japanese are moving on. One, Abenomics, the three arrows of fiscal policy and monetary policy and growth really underpin the new style of capitalism that Prime Minister Kishida's been talking about. I think that they will more assertively align towards those, even though the BOJ at this point, The Bank of Japan doesn't have a lot of flexibility given the indebtedness levels. But also the Quad, the CPTPP, the desire of the Japanese, the prime minister to go to NATO for the summit a couple weeks ago. I mean, all of these were really kicked off by Abe wanting a more assertive foreign policy, normalizing their defense capabilities. You might even see a move now towards reforming the constitution on the defense side, something Abe wanted to do but didn't have the votes for. Now the LDP does. I expect to see Japan increasingly assertive on the global stage like you've seen Germany under Olaf Scholz.
Does recent polling indicate both Democrats and Republicans will ditch Biden and Trump in 2024?
No, but it definitely indicates that both of those men, in their late seventies today, will have significant primary challenges. It's too early to talk about DeSantis from Florida is sort of out in front and challenging Trump. At this point in the 2016 race, everyone was talking about Chris Christie is out in front. Things change, and they change a lot as people get to know other political contenders. But I think the lack of popularity of Biden in the Democratic Party and the desire to move on from Trump in the Republican Party... In the case of Biden, the difficulties in the economy and his age. In the case of Trump, the way that January 6th committee has played out, I think does create space and means that both of these primaries are going to be competitive. Frankly, I think in both cases, that would be good for democracy in the United States. But if you made me bet at this point, I'd still say incumbent for Biden and Trump getting another run at it is still the way you would bet against anybody else simply because it's too early to say and they're by far the most well known.
The euro and the dollar are equal. Is it time for Americans to visit Europe?
Has to be, right? I mean, sort of a dollar parody. Everything in Europe is looking pretty cheap. I mean, it sounds like a great time for a vacation in Italy and sort of go and buy some fashion. Why not, and help the European economies, except for the fact of course, that there is a war going on in Ukraine and there are big energy challenges. So I'm not sure that Germany in the winter sounds so great right now, but for Americans that are looking to get the hell out for a week or two, Europe is cheaper now than it's been at any point in 20 years. One thing I would say, though is don't go to the UK. Heathrow is an utter disaster, and they're telling them not to take any more flight reservations because they can't handle all the inbound.
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Sleepy Joe captured on camera!
Is it a Robin or a Robinette? Filmmakers have tracked down the elusive Joe Biden in its natural habitat. What can we learn about the elusive Biden's behavior?
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Biden's big rebrand
The US president's poll numbers sure are looking grim, but he's got a foolproof plan to refresh his brand and reconnect with voters ahead of the mid-terms. Right? Right?
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
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On foreign policy, Biden's heart in the right place but "clumsy", says journalist Robin Wright
Joe Biden came into office with enormous foreign policy experience, a sharp contrast from his predecessor. So far, however, The New Yorker's Robin Wright says "there has been a lot of clumsy behavior" on Afghanistan and more recently alienating allies with AUKUS, and Biden's people are good thinkers but neither brave nor bold. "It's a weak administration [whose] heart's in the right place," she explains, but it needs to come up with more and move faster. Watch her interview with Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Biden's rocky start on foreign policy