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Senate's bipartisan $1T infrastructure bill could double US spending
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
The Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill this week. What do we know about that?
Infrastructure week is finally here, after many years of fits and starts on pressing a bipartisan infrastructure bill. The Senate moved one out of the chamber this week, as well as making progress on President Biden's $3.5 trillion follow-up spending plan. What's in the infrastructure bill? While it's a whole bunch of money for roads, bridges, tunnels, water projects, broadband deployment, airports, ports, all types of physical infrastructure, and it was done on a bipartisan basis.
How did they get it done? They finally figured out a way to pay for these things without actually having to raise taxes, partially by repurposing unused COVID-19 relief funds, but also through a series of budget gimmicks, which includes extending taxes that were set to expire, extending some fees that were set to expire, and changing around some Medicare rules. The end result is going to be probably a doubling of US infrastructure spending along with increase in deficits of between $200 and $300 billion over the next five to 10 years.
Is this a bipartisan victory for Biden? What will come next?
Well, this is a reasonably large bipartisan win for him. He thought it can get done. He insisted on getting it done, and it was probably necessary to get this done, so that moderate Democrats in the Senate would also vote for the much larger spending plan that's going to come next. Infrastructure's not done yet. We probably have months ahead of us in negotiation among the Democrats on the much larger $3.5 trillion bill. And then in the fall, perhaps as late as December, both bills are likely to pass the House, potentially with changes. You could see up to $2.5 or $3.5 trillion in new spending over the next 10 years, including a host of tax increases, designed to finance the second follow-on bill. President Biden's not gotten a big boost out of this so far, but he does check a box with moderate members of his conference who wanted to show that they can work with Republicans. Republicans also won from this because they showed the Senate still works, taking away some of the argument Democrats have for eliminating the Senate's supermajority rules known as the filibuster.
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Progress on infrastructure bill despite Senate vote against it
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi barred two Republican members from serving on the Jan. 6 commission. What's going on?
Well, the Jan. 6 commission was designed to be a bipartisan commission, taking input from members from Democrats and Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had the opportunity to make recommendations but the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could always veto those recommendations. In this case, she did, saying no to two members, Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, both of whom are strongly aligned with President Trump and who voted against certifying the election results in 2020. The Republicans for the most part see the Jan. 6 commission as an opportunity to score political points against them, and the Democrats say this is going to be a fair, non-biased, and nonpartisan investigation into what happened on Jan. 6, starting with a hearing next week with some of the police officers who were involved in the battle with the protesters inside the Capitol.
Both sides are probably correct on this. So the Democrats can use this as an opportunity to keep the Jan. 6 in the media and to keep Republicans connected to the riot at the Capitol. The Republicans, in turn, are going to use this to try to expand the scope and talk about all kinds of things that are really beyond strictly focusing on Jan. 6. So, it seems unlikely there's going to be a lot of real value that comes out of this commission, but you do have members like Liz Cheney who will be participating, who say they want to get to the bottom of what happened beyond President Trump's involvement.
Progress on a bipartisan infrastructure bill, is that really possible?
So this week, the Senate actually voted down, moving to proceed to a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And strangely, that may be the first sign that the bipartisan infrastructure bill could actually happen. Republicans voted against moving to the bill, opening debate on it, because they didn't have the text yet and they say it wasn't ready. The vote lost; it didn't get the 60 votes needed to proceed. But the 22 members, Republicans and Democrats, who are working on a bipartisan compromise, since the vote happened, have said they've made significant progress and are planning to try again early next week.
They need to try to cut a deal over the weekend and produce legislative text, and in the legislative text is where you're going to find a lot of things that could potentially trip up this bill. Because no other members have seen what's in this yet, there could be policy riders that people don't like, and the scores that come out of the Congressional scorekeepers telling everybody how much money to spend and how much revenue it raises may not add up. So there's still a lot that can go wrong between now and next week, but strangely, this negative vote was the first step towards actually getting something done this year on infrastructure.- Biden's big bet on Big Government - GZERO Media ›
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Biden's vaccine diplomacy and US global leadership; US-China bill gets bipartisan support
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
What's the significance of the US-China bill, competition bill that passed the Senate earlier this week?
Well, the bill is a major investment in American technology, research and development, semiconductor manufacturing, and it's designed to push back on the China Made in 2025 push that lawmakers have become increasingly worried about in recent years. The opinion in Washington has shifted from seeing China as a strategic competitor to a strategic rival. And you're seeing what's now likely to be one of the only bipartisan bills in Congress now pushing back on that. Significant money for semiconductors in this bill, even though some of it was set aside for automotive purposes. That money's not going to come online fast enough to really make a difference to the current global semiconductor shortage, but it will help build up US long-term spending capacity and manufacturing capacity in semiconductors.
Other aspects of the bill, banned the application TikTok from going on government devices out of security concerns, created new sanctions authorities around Xinjiang and Hong Kong for human rights abuses, and mandated a diplomatic boycott of the Olympics, which is probably going to happen anyway once the Biden administration is able to align with its allies. Let the athletes play. Don't let any high level delegations go. This is probably the only bipartisan bill to happen this year, yet still, half of Senate Republicans voted against it because they were opposed to the kind of industrial policy they think this represents, but it does show the area where there's bipartisan agreement in a city that's very, very divided right now. China is the bad guy and Congress is moving in that direction.
With President Biden announcing the US will donate 500 million vaccine doses to the world, is this the first step in the US's return to international leadership?
Well, the US said they were going to buy 500 million doses from Pfizer, maker of one of the mRNA vaccines developed in the United States, and send it out through the COVAX initiative to 100 countries around the globe. Separately, the G7 said that together they would donate a billion vaccine doses around the globe, but the US is obviously leading this initiative with the greatest vaccine production capabilities and the largest contribution globally. Still, the Biden administration has come under some criticism for being a little bit too slow to get these doses out the door. And the NGO community wants to see the US support a vaccine waiver, which the US has said they want to do, but now they're trying to negotiate that to allow other countries to use the IP created by Pfizer, Moderna, and others to create vaccines around the globe and drastically increase supply over the long-term.
The US has been very cautious in its approach. It wants to make sure that it has enough doses to give every adult in the US two, which is the recommended amount, and save some reserve for booster shots in case they're needed or if the virus starts coming back next summer. So, probably no matter what the US does here, it's not going to be enough for some people, but Biden is using this as an effort of vaccine diplomacy to let the world know that the US is back. This is a very different approach from the Trump administration, and this is signaling their commitment to spreading goodwill around the world.
What We’re Watching: China’s vaccination blitz, Nicaraguan opposition crackdown, Dems/GOP vs China
China goes big on vaccination: China is now vaccinating about 20 million people a day against COVID, accounting for more than half of the world's daily shots. Following a sluggish initial rollout, Chinese vaccine makers have scaled up production in recent months. That's good news for the world, particularly for developing countries that rely on vaccines distributed through the COVAX global facility, which now includes China's WHO-approved Sinopharm and Sinovac jabs. It's also good news for China's government, which for months has struggled to make its production capacity match its ambitious vaccine diplomacy program (though it has already supplied a whopping 350 million doses to more than 75 countries). And finally, it's good news for the Chinese people, who can travel without restrictions, both inside and outside China, once they're vaccinated. It's not good news for India, which earlier this year had a window of opportunity to compete with the Chinese on doling out jabs to low-income countries but then had to suspend exports in order to address its own COVID crisis.
Don't try to run for president in Nicaragua: Nicaraguan police have arrested four prominent opposition figures as part of a widening crackdown on challengers to strongman President Daniel Ortega. Two of those jailed were planning to run in November elections to try to deny Ortega a fifth presidential term. In recent years, Ortega — a former guerrilla who reinvented himself as a pious, business-friendly nepotist — has faced increasing protests over corruption and authoritarianism. Last fall he passed a law that permits him to detain any citizens considered "terrorists" or "traitors." And his handling of the pandemic has been epically bad: after refusing to take any public health measures, he and his wife simply disappeared for a month. The US has imposed sanctions and labeled Ortega a "dictator," but Washington must tread carefully — the last thing this White House wants right now is more instability in Central America that will encourage more migrants to head for the US southern border. But for many Nicaraguans, the last thing they want is more Ortega.
China's hottest new export: US bipartisanship: Democrats and Republicans agree on almost nothing these days, but lawmakers of both parties fear that a rising China threatens US global dominance. That's why on Tuesday evening senators flashed a rare moment of bipartisan unity by voting overwhelmingly to pour $250 billion worth of subsidies and grants into developing advanced technologies like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. One of the bill's sponsors, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), framed it explicitly as a bid to combat the "authoritarian image [that] President Xi Jinping would like to impose on the world." The bill now moves to the House, where it faces a few obstacles but will likely pass. Thought bubble: 20 years ago, the US thought that bringing Beijing into the "rules-based" order would make China more like the US politically. Instead, China's state capitalist model has forced the US to become a bit more like China economically — as the US develops ambitious and expensive state-driven industrial policies of its own.
Congress after the attempt to overthrow democracy: Democratic Senator Chris Murphy
Two-term Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut joins Ian Bremmer to talk about his harrowing experience during the Capitol riots of January 6, why he thinks an impeachment trial is still valuable even if Republican support for a conviction looks increasingly unlikely, if he believes President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package will pass both chambers, and how he thinks US-China foreign policy should change under the new administration.
Watch this extended interview from the recent episode of GZERO World: After the insurrection: will Congress find common ground?
The worst time to enter Congress: Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace
Freshman Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace of South Carolina joined Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to recount her harrowing experience on Capitol Hill during the January 6 riots and to explain why she did not support impeaching a president she strongly condemned. She'll also discuss where she thinks Democrats and Republicans in Congress can come together in 2021.This is an extended interview from the recent GZERO World episode: After the insurrection: will Congress find common ground?
Mace referenced Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's account of the January 6 riots in a tweet on February 4. In late January, she told Ian Bremmer about her own experience on Capitol Hill that day. "I started to make my way back to my office, but I was unable to get to my building because of threats at the Capitol. In fact, there was a pipe bomb that was found just steps away from the Cannon Office building at C and First Street. And looking back at it now, I walked by a pipe bomb where that was to get into my office that day."
Mace recalled how she was stuck in a tunnel underneath the Capitol, trying to get back to her office. "I read police reports this week of rioters that knew that there were some members stuck in the tunnels underneath the Capitol, and they were trying to go down, find a way to get down there to find us and capture us. And so it was a very scary day. It's a day I will never forget. Our lives were at risk and were put in grave danger," she told GZERO World.
Rep. Nancy Mace's Firsthand Account of the Capitol Riots | GZERO Worldyoutu.be
Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace on the chances for bipartisanship in Congress
Freshman Republican Representative Nancy Mace has only been in Congress for a few weeks, but she already has big plans. "It's my hope, because I've been such a strong voice, a new voice for the Republican party over the last few weeks, that I can use some of that capital to find ways to work together. And I think that there are small ways that we can make a big difference in this country for everybody." The South Carolina former businesswoman spoke to Ian Bremmer on GZERO World in the days leading up to a Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump. This episode of GZERO World also features an interview with Senate Democrat Chris Murphy of Connecticut.
After the insurrection: will Congress find common ground?
Can Democrats and Republicans agree on anything? Ian Bremmer talks to two very different lawmakers from each chamber Congress: two-term Democratic Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy and freshman Republican South Carolina Representative Nancy Mace. The guests give a vivid account of their experience at the Capitol during the January 6 riots and make a case for- or-against impeaching former President Trump. They'll also weigh in on President Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package and where exactly Republicans and Democrats might be able to work together in 2021.