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NEW DELHI, INDIA - JUNE 4: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP National President JP Nadda, Rajnath Singh and Amit Shah during celebration at BJP HQ as the party leads in the Lok Sabha elections amid the counting of votes, on June 4, 2024 in New Delhi, India.
India’s Narendra Modi – chastened?
Indian PM Narendra Modi still got more votes than any democratically elected leader in history (winning an election in a billion-strong country will do that). But his Bharatiya Janata Party suffered a humbling setback, losing nearly 60 seats and failing to secure an outright majority for the first time since coming to power in 2014. At last count, the Party of Modi had 240 seats out of 543.
Why did support slip for a popular leader credited with making India the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a leading voice of the Global South? Perhaps, after a decade in power, there was Modi fatigue. Maybe Modi’s polarizing Hindu-nationalist rhetoric didn’t play as well as he’d hoped. And give credit to the opposition alliance – led by the long-struggling Indian National Congress – which exceeded expectations (and polls) by capitalizing on widespread frustrations about inflation and unemployment.
What next? The BJP is still the legislature’s largest party, but it will need smaller and regional parties to form a government. That may mean slower progress on key but difficult reforms – to land ownership, labor laws, and tariffs – that are part of Modi’s dream of making India a global manufacturing powerhouse.
The biggest questions: Can Modi, a strongman-curious leader used to having his way, learn to be a team player? Can a once-powerful Congress party, which has been in the wilderness for a decade, turn this moment into a new lease on life?Bharatiya Janata Party supporters hold party flags while waiting for Narendra Modi's road show during an election campaign in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 16, 2024.
Viewpoint: India gears up for biggest elections ever
The world’s most populous country will hold elections between April 19 and 1 June for its lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. The 543-member chamber is India’s primary legislative body, and its composition will determine which party or coalition gets to nominate a prime minister and form the next government. Over the 44-day electoral period, nearly 970 million people will be eligible to vote, the most ever. More than 1 million polling stations will be set up, and officials will be dispatched to remote corners of the country’s vast geography to collect ballots.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one of the world’s most popular heads of state, is expected to lead his Bharatiya Janata Party to a comfortable victory and secure a third consecutive term in office. We sat down with Eurasia Group experts Rahul Bhatia and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to learn more about the upcoming elections.
What are the main issues for voters?
The chief concerns are inflation, particularly high food prices, and unemployment, especially among the youth. More than one-third of Indians believe they are worse off than before the pandemic-induced lockdowns, while about two-thirds say it is now harder to find a job. Though religious-political issues are also on voters' minds, they hold less weight than economic ones.
Despite apparent concerns about the economy, an overwhelming 75% of Indians approve of Modi’s leadership. He gets high marks for delivering targeted welfare schemes, upgrading the country’s infrastructure, and raising India’s international profile. He also gets credit for implementing elements of the BJP’s longstanding religious-political agenda, such as constructing a grand temple dedicated to the Hindu deity Ram and revoking the special autonomous status of the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region.
Modi has come under criticism for alleged anti-democratic tendencies – why is that and will this be a factor for voters?
Under Modi, press and political freedoms have suffered. Opposition parties have accused the prime minister of using government investigative agencies to harass opposition leaders and constrain their ability to contest elections. Other critics allege the government has undermined India’s secular constitution and its pluralistic values with its actions favoring the country’s Hindu majority population. While Modi's attitude toward civil liberties is not unlike that of past prime ministers who enjoyed a similar single-party majority, there are genuine concerns about democratic backsliding in India. Nevertheless, apart from a small urban elite, the average Indian voter doesn’t seem concerned.
What is the state of the opposition alliance?
Since the 2014 elections that brought Modi to power, the Indian National Congress, India’s largest opposition party, has struggled with a lack of clear leadership and an inability to craft an alternative political narrative that could capture the imagination of voters. It recently pivoted to an agenda of social and economic justice, but this strategy has not yet been tested at the ballot box.
Last July, the Congress and 25 smaller parties formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, aka INDIA, a big-tent coalition to pool their vote shares and create a stronger challenger to Modi and the BJP. However, the alliance has failed to cohere, and some regional parties have defected to the BJP’s alliance. Moreover, while seat-sharing arrangements had been agreed upon in some states, key regional parties have decided to contest their strongholds on their own, defeating the alliance’s purpose. The Congress and its partners remain far behind the BJP in the polls; they are not fighting to win the upcoming elections but rather to preserve their respective geographic power bases and limit Modi’s majority.
Modi has indicated he wants an expanded parliamentary majority – what does he aim to achieve in a potential third term?
Modi has said he aims to win 370 seats in the lower house of parliament, up from 303 at present. He is seeking a strong mandate to push through legislative changes – some of which are unpopular or challenge vested interests – that he believes are necessary to bolster economic growth. He wants to simplify the tax code and advance reforms on land, labor, agriculture, education, health, and electricity – which require the support of the states. A new Modi-led government would also continue efforts to upgrade infrastructure, including roads, railways, and airports.
Separately, Modi would seek to end India’s religion-based civil laws governing marriage and other issues and subsume them into a single uniform civil code – a process that has already begun at the state level.
Is Modi expected to serve just one more term? Is there a succession plan? What legacy does he want to leave behind?
It’s anybody’s guess whether another five-year term would be the last for Modi, who is 73 years old. He wants to leave behind a legacy of cementing India’s middle-income country status, raising its international stature, and correcting what the BJP believes are institutional biases against India’s Hindu population.
It does seem clear, however, that the BJP will face a succession problem when Modi steps down. The polls indicate that one in three people who vote for the BJP do so because they like Modi, not the BJP. As a result, the party might want Modi to contest the next elections in 2029 and then step down after that. While Amit Shah, the home minister, seems to be Modi’s preferred successor, he would probably face a leadership challenge from Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, and possibly from Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chief minister of Assam.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
Activists from the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP) are staging a protest after the central government notified the rules for the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, in Nagaon District, Assam, India, on March 11, 2024.
India enacts fraught new citizenship law ahead of election
The Indian government implemented a new citizenship law on Monday after over four years of delay that critics say may be used to discriminate against the country’s large Muslim minority.
What’s the new law? The amendment extends Indian citizenship to Hindus, Parsis, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, and Christians who moved to India from Pakistan, Afghanistan, or Bangladesh before Dec. 31, 2014.
Supporters say the law is meant to help members of those faiths escape persecution in their countries of origin, but critics worry it is one step of a two-part plan. In combination with a proposed national register of citizens, they say this law could be used to render Muslims stateless. When the law was first passed in 2019, it triggered months of protests and riots that left dozens dead and hundreds injured, which is why the government waited years to implement it.
Why now? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has never looked stronger, and he’s aiming to fire up Hindu nationalist sentiment ahead of elections this spring. Modi is expected to win comfortably, but he’s aiming to run up his party’s vote count as high as possible and solidify its long-term prospects.
To that end, earlier this year he opened a controversial Hindu temple on the grounds of a former mosque in a massive symbolic victory, which had been the site of violent confrontation for over a century. And to woo less spiritually motivated voters, Modi announced he was spending $15 billion on infrastructure in the south and east, where he hopes to make inroads into opposition strongholds.
What does democracy look like in Modi's India?
India's population recently surpassed China's and in the most populous country on earth, nothing is simple. But for the world's largest democracy, democracy isn't so simple, either. India has had its fair share of problems, from the persecution of minority groups, to a clamping down on press freedom, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has faced stiff criticism from the West. But during his recent trip to the White House, President Biden still rolled out the red carpet and welcomed him with open arms. The question remains: What does a Modi led India look like?
Our guest this week is award-winning broadcast journalist and Washington Post columnist Barkha Dutt, who has a message for both DC and Delhi: "For the critics in America, let India battle this out. It'll probably be more productive. Don't be judgy. Talk to us as an equal. For the Modi government, you can't hide from this question. You need to start engaging with it. It's a real question, and you have to engage with the criticism that is brought to your door on this question."
Tune in to “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer” on US public television to watch the full interview. Check local listings.
India is not a US ally ... or is it?
If the United States and India were ever to make it Facebook official, their status would be: "It's Complicated." These two global behemoths may seem like close allies, especially judging by the warm welcome President Biden gave Prime Minister Modi during his White House visit in June, but in reality, they are anything but best friends.
During the Cold War era, India maintained a "strategically non-aligned" global status and it has tried to stay on the geopolitical fence since fall of the Soviet Union. But when Russia invaded Ukraine and Delhi refused to explicitly condemn Moscow, India's self-proclaimed "multilateral" approach was severely tested.
On the show this week, a deep dive into the nation that recently surpassed China to become the most populous country on earth. Ian is joined by award-winning broadcast journalist and Washington Post contributor Barkha Dutt to talk US-India relations, the state of democracy within India, and how the trauma of COVID has reshaped the country.
Tune in to “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer” on US public television starting this Friday, July 7, to watch the full interview. Check local listings.
Modi defies gravity
It's been a rough few months for India, even by the standards of 2020. Its economy was slowing even before COVID became a household word. A controversial citizenship law provoked deadly unrest in India's largest cities.
Then, when coronavirus infections began to spike in early spring, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a lockdown that gave 1.3 billion Indians just four hours to find a place to shelter in place for 21 days. The resulting chaos inflicted even more damage on India's economy. Amid the chaos, massive crowds of people on the move across the country probably accelerated the spread of infection.
Unemployment has hit record highs, and Modi has begun the gradual process of ending the lockdown, despite evidence that COVID infections and deaths continue to rise.
And Modi, now serving his second term, has an approval rating in the high 70s, and more than 90% of people reportedly support his handling of the coronavirus crisis.
How is that possible? We asked Akhil Bery, an analyst who covers India at Eurasia Group, GZERO Media's parent company. We know Modi is an exceptionally gifted politician, but how is he defying political gravity in this remarkable way?
Akhil offers a few theories…
Modi is decisive. In a diverse country where decisive political action is prized, Modi was able to "re-establish his position as a decisive leader who is doing what it takes to keep the nation healthy and safe," said Bery, by persuading voters that, however hasty, his bold actions saved millions of lives. His controversial policies, particularly on questions of religion and citizenship, are highly popular with large majorities in India, even if critics inside and outside the country say he has deliberately targeted Muslims for discrimination to play to a Hindu nationalist voting base.
He has also stoked national pride by talking very tough on Pakistan, India's rival, and by cutting a formidable figure alongside other world leaders. When he addresses major international gatherings like the UN General Assembly and the World Economic Forum in Hindi rather than in English, Indians see a leader who is advancing India's independence and culture on the world stage.
The opposition is barely visible. The Congress Party, now India's main opposition party at the national level, lacks strong leadership. Party leader Rahul Gandhi is still widely considered "an unserious politician who comes from an elite ruling family," Bery told us. "In my opinion, until Congress changes its leadership, it will always play second fiddle to Modi on a national level. Even if there is anger [at Modi] – there is no leader to tap into that anger and hold Modi accountable."
Modi's party has mastered new media. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has, according to Bery, developed a social media game and grassroots level organization with highly disciplined messaging. "No other party has been able to organize at the level or use the image of their leaders as effectively." That helps the prime minister sell his version of events efficiently to hundreds of millions of people.
Storm clouds. All that said, over the next two years, India will hold elections in 11 of its 28 states. Modi may calculate that his current popularity owes much more to policies that favor his Hindu nationalist voter base than to the economic reforms of his first term or any potential plans that promote national unity.
Some of the states holding elections have a history of communal violence between Hindus and Muslims. Add the risk of lingering post-COVID unemployment to Modi's history of pitting Hindus against Muslims, and India may be headed for even more turmoil.
Will Prime Minister Modi win India's election?
Indian election results are out on Thursday. How will PM Modi's party fare?
They going to do very well. Certainly going to take over government again. Whether or not it's by themselves or in coalition. I suspect the latter. What does that mean? It means a more divided India. That also means more money on infrastructure, more economic reform. India politically is as viscerally tearing itself apart as the United States or say, Brazil right now. I wish that wasn't the case.
Can the Austrian PM survive "Ibiza-gate"?
Yes, I suspect that the centre right is going to end up with more popularity. Squeezing out the big mistake. The scandal dropped by the far right Freedom Party. Kind of like what's happening in Germany right now as the Alternatives For Deutschland is getting squeezed by the centre right. That is actually happening to a number of populist parties across Europe.
Can Huawei survive the dispute with the United States?
They can survive, but I don't think they're going to be globally dominant. I think this hit is not only going to hurt their balance sheet, but it also means a lot of American allies are going to be very careful before they decide they want to work with 5G. They were not in that direction beforehand. They were saying, "oh yeah, it's cheaper, it's going to roll out faster." Now they realized the Americans mean business. The real question is: can the trade talks survive the Huawei scandal? And right now. That is in the balance getting harder to pull it off.