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A rideshare driver in Los Angeles holds a placard, as Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash drivers strike in multiple US cities on Valentine's Day.
HARD NUMBERS: Rideshare drivers go on strike, Artist holds Picasso hostage for Assange, Putin’s Black Sea warships sink to new low, Porsches idle over Xinjiang abuses, Haiti’s gangs make bank
45 million: An exiled Russian dissident artist in France is threatening to hit a “Dead Man’s Switch,” which will destroy $45 million worth of paintings by Picasso, Rembrandt, Warhol, and others if WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange dies in prison. Andrei Molodkin says the threat is an act of protest for free speech. Assange is currently in a maximum security prison in Britain, but next week he faces possible extradition to the US, where human rights groups say his prosecution under espionage laws could pose a threat to freedom of the press.
1,000: About 1,000 Porsche sports cars and SUVs, along with thousands more Audis and a few hundred Bentleys, are currently impounded in US ports after the discovery that the luxury rides contain a small part produced in Xinjiang, a region of Western China where the Chinese government is accused of human rights violations. US laws prohibit the import of any products made with forced labor in Xinjiang.
33: Ukraine says it has now knocked out at least 33% of Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet, following a drone attack this week that sunk the Caesar Kunikov, a landing ship. That brings the total to more than two dozen Russian warships wrecked by Kyiv since Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.
25 million: Haiti’s powerful gangs earn at least $25 million a year from kidnapping alone, says a new report. That, combined with some $20,000 a week in extortion fees and a brisk trade in human organs, have made the organizations “economically autonomous.” A UN-backed police force has yet to deploy to the Caribbean nation, in part because of constitutional obstacles in Kenya, which was tapped to lead the mission.
Hisham Awartani, Kinnan Abdel Hamid and Tahseen Ahmed
Hard numbers: Palestinians shot in Vermont, undocumented Chinese migration to the US soars, Beijing tries to erase Islam, Black Sea storm batters Russia and Ukraine
24,000: Over the past year, 24,000 Chinese migrants have been apprehended while crossing into the US from Mexico, more than were detained in the entire preceding decade. Many say they’re fleeing Communist Party political repression and have braved perilous journeys through Latin America, including the deadly Darién Gap, to get to the US border.
1,714: Meanwhile, back in China itself, the government has disfigured or torn down at least 1,714 mosques over the past five years, as part of a nationwide campaign by the Communist Party to suppress Islamic religious symbols and iconography. Satellite data gathered in an exclusive FT interactive shows how authorities have replaced traditional Islamic architectural features with more “Chinese” looking ones. The campaign of erasure reaches well beyond Xinjiang, the northwestern region where human rights abuses against the local Muslim population have been widely documented for years.
2 million: An unusually severe storm in the Black Sea has knocked out power to nearly 2 million people in Southern Russia and parts of Ukraine that are occupied by Russia. The storm, which slung 25-foot waves at the Black Sea coastline, killed at least four people and forced authorities to stop loading oil tankers at the Novorossiysk port, one of Russia’s busiest oil export hubs.
A satellite image shows smoke billowing from a Russian Black Sea Navy HQ after a missile strike, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Sevastopol, Crimea, September 22, 2023.
Ukraine strikes Russian targets in Crimea
A rebellion among Republicans in the US House of Representatives is crystalizing a movement from some pro-Donald Trump conservatives to halt all US help for Kyiv. In a recent poll, just 41% of US respondents expressed support for military aid for Ukraine, down from 46% in May, with 35% opposed. And though leaders from 47 European countries issued a statement of support for Kyiv this week, Europe can’t make up for any financial and military shortfall if US support is suspended or significantly delayed. Ukraine’s failure so far to regain much territory from Russian forces has cast a pall over Western optimism.
And yet, Ukraine continues to use the weapons it already has to inflict serious damage on Russian forces in Crimea, the most hotly contested prize in the war. With both homemade drones and foreign-supplied cruise missiles, Ukraine has struck a number of important military targets in recent weeks. On Sept. 22, two Ukrainian missiles struck the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet during a meeting of senior officials. On Wednesday, Russia withdrew much of the Black Sea Fleet from its main base in Crimea to a port on the Russian mainland, perhaps over fears the vessels could not be protected.
It’s a reminder that even if US help is halted or delayed in the coming weeks – and that outcome isn’t yet clear – Ukraine still has the firepower to inflict heavy damage on Russian forces and morale as the war grinds on.
Ian Explains: Why is Russia trying to starve the world?
Why is Russia trying to starve the world?
Nearly a year-and-a-half into its invasion of Ukraine—after the massacre of civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, after the indiscriminate shelling of Europe’s largest nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia, and after the torture of countless Ukrainian POWs—Moscow’s latest move may be its cruelest so far.
In July, Russia pulled out of a landmark wartime deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, that had allowed for 33 million tons of food to flow from Ukraine to countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. And soon after announcing their withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian forces engaged in strikes against the port of Odessa, destroying substantial grain stocks while also inadvertently damaging the Chinese consulate there (oops).
So why is it in Moscow’s interest to spike global food prices? What does it have to gain from exacerbating hunger in the Global South? Many of the African nations likely to be hardest hit, like Ethiopia, have taken pains to remain neutral in the Ukraine war.
Maybe Putin is losing patience.
For more on the Russia Ukraine war, watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Russia undermines everything the UN stands for, says Linda Thomas-Greenfield
Should Russia be a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council?
That’s the question Ian Bremmer asked US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield on GZERO World ahead of the United States taking over the Security Council presidency for the month of August.
The UN Security Council is tasked with maintaining peace and stability around the globe. But how realistic is that mandate when one of its permanent members started a war in the middle of Europe with an unprovoked attack on its neighbor?
“Russia is not living up to what is required of a permanent member,” Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield said in an interview from the floor of the council chamber, “What they are doing undermines everything the UN stands for.”
Despite the contentious relationship, Thomas-Greenfield is the most senior official in the United States with regular, direct contact with a high-level diplomat from the Russian Federation. Thomas-Greenfield uses the relationship to continue to raise the issue of Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, American citizens unlawfully detained in Russia. She also continues to call out Russia for pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal and jeopardizing the world’s food supply.
“The Russian action is evidence to the world that Russia does not care about humankind,” Thomas-Greenfield says, “Their withdrawing from the grain deal, and then attacking agricultural infrastructure in Ukraine sends a chilling message to the world.”
Watch the full interview: Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, Sudan & the power of diplomacy
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Russia's exit from Black Sea grain deal will drive up food prices
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the consequences of Russia exiting the Black Sea grain deal?
Severe, no question about that. It is obvious that Russia intends to completely stop all Ukraine grain exports over the Black Sea anyhow, as far as they can. It's not only exiting the agreement, it's also sustained attacks against the grain export terminals in Ukraine, and also those very close to the border with Romania. Upward pressure on global food prices, no question about that, that's going to be the consequences, and Russia is responsible.
How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?
Well, it's a hard slog. These areas have been extensively fortified and mined by the Russians, and we should also be aware of the fact that the Ukrainian army and the Russian army today is a different army. There's a lot of mobilized people, they have training for just some months. So I think it is going to take some time. So give it a month, or somewhat more than that, and we can make a more accurate assessment of how far they can achieve.
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Odessa grain terminal on fire from Russian airstrike
Grain warfare: Russia escalates the conflict
In the wake of Russia withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal on Monday, the Kremlin announced on Wednesday that it will consider all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports as hostile vessels, escalating tensions at sea and further impeding Ukraine’s ability to export grain.
Russian forces will deem all Ukrainian-bound ships as potential carriers of military cargo, making commercial vessels potential targets. Moscow also suspended conventional safety guarantees to sailors in the areas where Ukraine’s main Black Sea ports are located. The threat will deter many commercial ships from exporting anything from Ukraine’s ports, even grain that many countries – especially in the Global South – depend upon.
Hours after pulling out of the deal, Russia began a bombing campaign targeting Odessa’s grain terminals that continued into Wednesday. The strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain, injured civilians, and sent a message to the world: Putin is not afraid to weaponize the world's food supply.
Ukrainian grain is a major stabilizer of global prices. Wheat prices had already risen 5% this week, thanks to Russia’s decision to pull out of the deal. They are expected to climb higher as the Black Sea becomes too dangerous for commercial shippers. Under the grain deal, 63% of Ukraine's grain exports were being shipped via Black Sea ports. Without those ports, exporters will have to use land routes, raising transportation costs by 38%.
US intel leak shows rising risk of NATO-Russia conflict
Are China's Taiwan war games losing their intimidation power?
No, I wouldn't say that. I would say that the response to a President Tsai meeting with Kevin McCarthy in California where no real news was made as opposed to a trip to Taipei is not as provocative, and so, therefore, China's response is not as provocative, and that was true both militarily, diplomatically, and economically in terms of very limited sanctions. And I think they're hitting the Reagan Library and the Hudson Institute, not a big deal. In other words, not meant to overly escalate, and I think that's good news on both sides, and what's otherwise not a very functional relationship politically right now.
What is the fallout from the Pentagon Intelligence leak?
Well, there's clearly going to be a level of concern on the Ukrainians that they're not as robust militarily, and that there's not as much support for what they can accomplish in their counter offensive as people might think. That's problematic because they'll put more pressure on them to engage diplomatically with the Russians earlier than perhaps they would like, or then Zelensky would be politically prepared to. The thing that I took away from this leak that was most concerning is how close a UK spy plane was to being shot down by the Russians in the Black Sea. Again, we have to understand that this is an environment where Russia is treated as a rogue state run by a war criminal by the United States and by all of NATO. That's a very dangerous place to be. This is a nuclear power with lots of massive military capabilities fighting an active war. And the West isn't in a direct war with them, but they're doing the intel. They're training the troops. They're providing the weapons, and there's lots of ways this could go very, very badly. We need to recognize that we are closer to that kind of a problem than we might otherwise think.
The Good Friday Agreements turned 25 this week. Is Brexit making it harder to achieve peace in Northern Ireland?
Well, I think it was when Brexit was first put into place and because people like Boris Johnson were playing politics around whether or not there would be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That has largely been resolved by Rishi Sunak with the EU. And clearly, an enormous amount has been accomplished over the last 25 years. Living in Ireland and Northern Ireland is nothing like it was during the so-called Time of Troubles. And that's a good thing, and I'm glad that we can celebrate that anniversary as opposed to, for example, the anniversary of the war in Iraq, which was devastating for pretty much everyone involved.
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