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Bloc by Bloc: Five demographic trends to watch on Election Day
Well, here we are. After a punishingly long, mind-bogglingly expensive, and unusually unnerving US presidential campaign, Election Day is upon us.
Over the past few months, our Bloc by Bloc series took a look at some of the voting demographics that will likely play a key role in the outcome, so as we head down to the wire, here are five key takeaways to recap:
First, this election is very much about gender and perceptions of gender roles. In part, that’s because Kamala Harris is vying to become the first female president, running against an opponent who has been found liable for sexual assault against women in the past. But it’s also because of how each campaign frames its pitch and where each is seeking support.
The Trump campaign has leaned hard into winning the support of men, young men in particular, at times embracing a kind of hypermasculinity in its messaging – Hulk Hogan ripping his shirt off at the RNC has become a signature moment. The Harris campaign, meanwhile, has sought to galvanize female voters, in particular by arguing that a second Trump presidency might further restrict women’s access to abortion and other reproductive health care, charges that Trump and his running mate JD Vance have recently sought to refute. In the latest polls, there is a 12-13 point gender gap between the two candidates. Read more here.
Second, key minority blocs look set to vote Republican at higher rates than in the recent past, with potentially decisive impacts in swing states. The Latino, Black, and Arab-American votes have been dependably Democratic for decades, and it is very unlikely that Trump will win any of these groups outright. But he could very well draw significantly more support than Republican candidates have in the past, as economic perceptions, culture war issues, and key concerns such as immigration or the war in Gaza scramble traditional voting patterns. Given the strong presence of these groups in key swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, even small shifts could have a big impact. For our look at the Black vote, see here. On the complex and shifting Latino vote (the largest minority voting bloc in the country), we took a look both before Biden stepped out and afterward. Our profile of a rapidly changing Arab-American vote in the shadow of Oct. 7 and Israel’s assault on Gaza is here.
Third, the partisan class divide is real – but with a caveat. Back in September, the historically Democrat-leaning Teamsters union decided not to endorse a candidate for the first time in decades. Why? At least partly because an internal poll showed the union’s rank and file breaking in favor of Trump, whose pledges to crack down on illegal immigration and stop import competition from abroad have been popular with this demographic. Given that the election could well turn on who wins more of the so-called “Rust Belt” – that is, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – the preferences of the working class could be decisive.
There is a caveat here, however: Among white working-class voters, Trump leads by roughly 30 points, but among non-white working-class voters, the reverse is true (most non-white working-class folks are Black and Latino). Read more about the class divide here.
Fourth, for all the attention on the youth vote, the senior circuit could be decisive. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to turn the senior vote blue for the first time in decades – whether Harris will be able to continue that trend could be decisive. For all the focus of both candidates on youth voters, the senior vote – which typically shows high turnout and relatively conservative leanings – is worth watching. The latest polls show a more or less dead heat between the two candidates among voters aged 65 and older. For more on the youth and senior votes, see here.
Fifth, take the idea of “voting blocs” with a grain of sense. These categories – Black, Hispanic, Working class, Women, Men, Young, Old – are, of course, huge oversimplifications of the preferences and experiences of tens of millions of individual people. For the purposes of analysis and polling, this is useful, but as you think about the election, it goes without saying that it’s important to remember that each person will ultimately cast their vote for reasons that are important to them, not to some group identity assigned to them by a pollster, census worker, campaign strategist, media executive, or political analyst. This may seem like an obvious point, but it’s worth remembering, particularly as you try to understand, after the fact, why either candidate won or lost.
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a campaign event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., June 22, 2024.
Could Black and Christian voters put Trump over the top?
As Thursday’s presidential debate in Atlanta looms, presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump is actively courting Black voters. At a rally in Philadelphia on Saturday, the former president promised to get tough on crime and slammed “Joe Biden's open border” as “a disaster for our great African-American and Hispanic-American populations.”
Rep. Byron Donalds – a Black Republican representing Florida’s 19th district who has been touted as a possible Trump VP pick — told Fox News Sunday he thinks Trump could make major inroads in the community if he runs against Biden’s record. A recent CNN poll showed Trump’s support among the Black community tripling to 21%. Despitepolls showing Biden’s Black support shrinking, Democratic campaign co-chair Mitch Landrieu says there’s “no universe” in which Trump woos 21% of Black votes. Still, Landrieu’s team does seem worried: They recently launched Black Voters for Biden-Harristo shore up support.
Trump is imploring Evangelical voters to tick his box, but his refusal to promise a national abortion ban may hurt him. At a weekend event in Washington organized by the conservative Christian Faith and Freedom Coalition, Trump was met with chants of "No dead babies!” He managed to win the crowd back with comments about supporting the posting of the Ten Commandments in public schools, and by reminding the crowd of his appointments to the Supreme Court, which overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
For more on how America’s racial dynamics are playing out in the 2024 election, GZERO’s Bloc by Bloc series has you covered. Alex Kliment covers where the Latino vote is going below, and Riley Callanan has written more about Black voters here.AJ McCampbell, Democrat state representative from Alabama's 71st district, calls on U.S. president Joseph R. Biden to "pick a side" on voting rights and the filibuster before a march in downtown Washington, D.C. from the African American History Museum to the White House on Wednesday, August 4, 2021.
Hard Numbers: Biden is losing Black voters, Southern Brazil gasps for air, Turkey strikes Kurdish militants, Vultures vanish from the skies of South Asia
62: A new poll finds that just 62% of Black Americans are “absolutely certain” they’ll vote in November, down 12 points since June 2020. Overall, American interest in voting dropped by four points. That’s bad news for President Joe Biden who – like all Democrats for the past half-century – has relied heavily on Black American voters at the polls. But the study, conducted by the Washington Post and IPSOS, shows Black voters, particularly younger ones, aren’t happy with his handling of the economy, criminal justice reform, or the war in Gaza.
75: At least 75 people have been killed and more than 100 reported missing after massive floods swept through the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul over the weekend, washing away roads and bridges, knocking out power and water, and causing deadly landslides. The local governor said rebuilding will require “a kind of Marshall Plan.” Trivia: You probably know a famous person from Rio Grande do Sul – supermodel Gisele Bündchen.
16: A Turkish airstrike on a camp across the border in northern Iraq reportedly killed at least 16 members of the Kurdistan Workers Party, aka PKK. The PKK, which has waged a decades-long armed insurgency against the Turkish state, has long had a presence in Kurdish-controlled regions of Northern Iraq and Syria. It is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and the EU. Allies of the PKK, however, have helped the US to fight against ISIS.
2: The Parsis, a tiny religious minority in South Asia who follow Zoroastrian burial rites in which dead bodies are left atop “towers of silence” to be picked clean by vultures, have a big problem: a vulture shortage. In Karachi, a city of 20 million, the 800 remaining Parsis have just two towers of silence left. In recent decades regional vulture populations have been decimated because of an anti-inflammatory drug in cattle that is lethal for the scavenging birds.
The Supreme Court’s role on Black voting rights
When the 1965 Voting Rights Act was passed, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Clarence Page had just finished high school. This legislation changed the lives of Black people in America because Jim Crow laws had virtually prevented Blacks from voting in the South, he said in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But in 2013, the Supreme Court gutted the law by taking away pre-clearance for states, which had blocked states — especially the former Confederate ones — from changing their voting laws based on racial discrimination.
At the time of the SCOTUS ruling, Chief Justice John Roberts said pre-clearance wasn't needed anymore. But many disagree.
Now, Page says Republicans tend to benefit from making it harder to vote, while Democrats want to make it easier.
"We're getting right at the heart of what democracy is all about, when we're at loggerheads over who should be allowed to vote and, and who shouldn't."
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Black voter suppression in 2022
Black voter suppression in 2022
Until the 1965 Voting Rights Act, Black people in America who wanted to vote faced impossible poll questions and literacy tests. But the Supreme Court gutted the law in 2013, allowing states to pass new voting legislation that progressives say restrict Black access to the ballot box.
The 2022 midterm elections will be the first major test of these laws — which Democrats in Congress are unlikely to be able to stop. How will this all affect Black turnout in November?
On this episode of GZERO World, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Clarence Page tells Ian Bremmer that if Trump loyalists win in key states, their legislatures — not voters — may end up deciding the next US presidential race.What may happen in 2024 reminds him of 1876, when Page says the end of Reconstruction after the Civil War, along with a disputed presidential election, ushered in the Jim Crow laws that ended his ancestors' ability to vote in Alabama.
What's driving all this? For Page, part of the problem is the grievance narrative around critical race theory, which has made some Americans confused between being a Democrat and being democratic.
Still, he says you can't deny that Republicans want to make it harder to vote, while Democrats try to make it easier. That's a big problem because "we're at loggerheads over who should be allowed to vote and, and who shouldn't."
Page also compares President Biden's pledge to nominate a Black woman to fill Justice Breyer's seat on the Supreme Court to Ronald Reagan's decision to pick Sandra Day O'Connor. And as a bonus, Ian looks back at the history of Black women judges in America.
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