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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae Yul following their talks in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2025.
South Korean authorities get extension to Yoon arrest warrant
South Korean anti-corruption authorities reached a deal with police to extend their warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday after failing to arrest him on Friday. A six-hour standoff with presidential security in the official residence amounted to nothing, and the corruption investigators have asked the National Police Agency to take over the responsibility of detaining Yoon. Authorities have not disclosed the new extension's expiration date.
Police are in uncharted waters, however, as no previous South Korean president has been arrested before being removed from office. Yoon was impeached in December, but vacancies on the constitutional court have prevented his official removal. Meanwhile, his party is playing for time – hoping to stall long enough to allow the high court to rule on a case that could render the opposition leader ineligible to run in elections to replace Yoon.
The gridlock is starting to chafe allies, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had expressed “serious concerns” during talks in Seoul with his counterpart on Monday. But Blinken also praised the strong response of South Korean institutions to Yoon’s attempt to seize power through martial law.
North Korea, which has taken a cautious approach thus far amid Seoul’s domestic upheaval, used Blinken’s visit as an opportunity to test a medium-range missile with a supposedly hypersonic capacity. We’re watching how Pyongyang approaches potential provocations once the Biden administration leaves the scene.
People celebrate after fighters of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Aleppo, Syria, December 13, 2024.
From Assad to Uncertainty
Syria’s new leadership claims it wants to prioritize stability and reconstruction over further conflict – but will that be possible? With Israel fortifying the Golan Heights, Turkey expanding its influence, and Russia retreating, we’re watching this week if Syria and its neighbours will manage to get along — and how allies and adversaries will react.
No new confrontation – for now. Inan interview given on Saturday to Syria TV, Ahmad al-Sharaa — formerly known by his nom de guerre “Abu Mohammed al-Golani” — the leader of the HTS, stated that despite Israel having “clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria”, the country’s war-weary condition “does not allow for new confrontations.” Instead, Al-Sharaa stated that HTS’ priorities are reconstruction and stability and called for diplomatic solutions to ensure Syria’s security.
Israel is still wary. Despite al-Sharaa’s moderate tone, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katzmaintained that security threats to Israel have not diminished. Israeli forces remain present in the buffer zone inside Syria and continue to conduct strikes on military targets. On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans todouble the Israeli population of the Golan Heights as a defensive measure against the “new front” that had opened up in the wake of Assad’s ouster, but says his country has "no interest in a conflict with Syria."
Iran steps out, Turkey steps in. Assad’s fall dealta severe blow to Tehran’s influence in Syria, a vacuum Ankara is only too happy to fill. Turkey has now offered toprovide military training to Syria's new administration if requested, and will maintain troops in several cities in northern Syria, where it has been conducting military operations since 2016. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Güler said his country’s priority remains the elimination of Kurdish militias, which enjoy US backing but are considered terrorists by Turkey.
What about Russia? The other big loser in Syriais Moscow, which had heavily backed Assad’s regime for years, in exchange for strategic positions within the country including the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base. Recent satellite imagery has shown Russian forcespacking up military equipment and preparing for transport. The Kremlin has confirmed that Moscow isin discussions with HTS about retaining its two bases, but has withdrawn troops from frontline positions.
Will the United States fill the gap? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that Washington has beenactively engaging with Syria's new leadership but gave no details on when or at what level. Blinken met over the weekend with regional leaders in Jordan to discuss Syria’s future as well as seek the return of Austin Tice, an American journalist detained a decade ago in Syria.
Blinken also emphasized the importance of destroying chemical weapons and rejecting terrorism, warning that “This is a moment of vulnerability in which ISIS will seek to regroup.”
Could US policy change under Trump? When Assad’s government fell, President-elect Donald Trumpposted “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, told Fox News last week that Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate to keep the United States out of regional wars, and that America's"core interests" remain ISIS, Israel and "our Gulf Arab allies". There are no indications that Trump or his team have reached out to HTS, but the President-elect has reportedly spoken with Netanyahuabout Israel’s plans to expand settlements in the Golan Heights.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is accompanied by U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink as he prepares to depart the train station in Kyiv, Ukraine, September 11, 2024.
Will the US let Ukraine use long-range missiles against Russia?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy suggested during a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday that their governments might reconsider prohibitions on letting Ukraine use Western weapons to hit targets inside Russia.
Until now, the US and UK have refused Ukraine’s requests, because of concerns about escalating the war with a nuclear-armed Russia.
But Lammy said recent reports of Russia acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran “clearly change the debate,” while Blinken suggested Washington might be more flexible too, saying the US has “adjusted and adapted as needs have changed.” US President Joe Biden on Tuesday said his administration was “working that out” when asked about a policy change.
In addition, the US this week alleged for the first time that China has provided direct support for Russia’s “war machine,” while Lammy urged China “not to throw their lot in” with Russia and other “renegades.”
These discussions all come as Russia continues to announce gains in eastern Ukraine, even as Ukrainian forces continue to hold territory in Russia’s Kursk region, where Moscow has so far failed to drive them out.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday urged his Western allies to make “strong decisions.” Will they?FILE PHOTO: A Kenyan police officer stands guard during a joint operation with Haitian police, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti July 29, 2024.
Blinken heads to Haiti as Kenyan force faces time crunch
US Secretary of State Antony Blinkenvisited Haiti for the first time on Thursday, underscoring American support for the struggling Caribbean government and the Kenyan-led security mission meant to stabilize the country. Nairobi sent special police officers to Haiti in late June as part of a UN-approved mission to bolster Haiti’s law enforcement and military against well-armed and organized gangs. The Kenyans have made significant strides alongside the Haitian National Police in securing key landmarks in the capital, Port-au-Prince, but they’re running short of money and time — the mission’s mandate is set to expire on Oct. 2 and would need to be renewed — and ordinary Haitians still face daily violence from gangs.
The US is considering requesting that the UN turn the Kenyan-led operation into a formal peacekeeping operation, which could avoid the need for renewals. The Kenyan commander Godfrey Otunge says the gangs’ days are numbered, but the other countries that pledged to send troops to back up his officers have not followed through. Otunge has only 400 of the 2,500 men who are supposed to be under his command.
The ad hoc nature of the mission contributes to the sluggishness: The UN took nearly a year to approve the mandate, and then Kenya took another nine months to get boots on the ground. During that time, gangs ousted PM Ariel Henry and solidified control over more than 80% of Port-au-Prince. By the time the Kenyans arrived, they only had three months left in their mandate. Redesignating it as a formal PKO could ease some time constraints and provide a formal mechanism for other countries to fulfill their troop pledges. We’re watching how the debate unfolds.A training of the fire division, guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (not pictured), is held in North Korea, March 18, 2024, in this picture released on March 19, 2024, by the Korean Central News Agency.
Hard Numbers: Kim Jong Un takes aim, Pakistan launches deadly airstrikes, Sunak’s asylum-seeking plan proves costly, BOJ raises rates, Death toll rises in Haiti
186: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: On Monday, North Korea responded to a visit to South Korea by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken by firing short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang an estimated 186 miles into the Sea of Japan. North Korea’s military has recently staged military maneuvers in response to annual US-South Korean joint drills.
8: Pakistan launched airstrikes on Monday on suspected hideouts of members of the Pakistani Taliban inside neighboring Afghanistan. Tensions are rising between Pakistan’s military and the Afghan Taliban, which claimed the attacks killed at least eight people.
292,000: A new report from the Institute for Public Policy Research argues that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to move asylum-seekers from the UK to Rwanda while their claims are evaluated could cost the British taxpayer $292,000 per person. Compare that with about 70,000 per person if migrants were allowed to remain in the UK during that period.
317: The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rates on Tuesday, raising the interest rate from -0.1% to 0%-0.1%, its first hike in 17 years. The historic move, which shifts the focus away from reflating growth with monetary stimulus, follows significant wage increases by Japan’s major corporations and a rise in consumer prices. The BOJ does not anticipate further increases in the near-term.10: At least 10 people were found dead Monday in the wealthy Petion-Ville suburb of Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital, victims of escalating gang violence amid political chaos following Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation. Homes, a bank, and a gas station were attacked, and it remains unclear who was responsible. The violence has prompted increased border security by neighbors like the Dominican Republic and evacuations of US citizens.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is welcomed upon arriving at King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024.
Blinken swims against current to push for Gaza truce
But Blinken is fighting an uphill battle, given Hamas seeks a permanent cease-fire and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear that he’s not giving up on his goal of destroying the militant group.
Bombing for peace? Blinken’s visit comes as the US ramps up strikes on Iran-backed militias in the region as part of a broader effort to deter further attacks on US forces. The tit-for-tat is being fueled by the war in Gaza, and it’s unlikely to end as long as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas.
What’s on the agenda? Blinken, who arrived in Riyadh on Monday, is set to visit Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and the occupied West Bank. His trip will also focus on post-war governance in Gaza and Washington’s hopes for a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Houthi tribesmen parade to show defiance after U.S. and U.K. air strikes on Houthi positions near Sanaa, Yemen February 4, 2024.
Houthis threaten to retaliate after US, UK attacks
On Sunday, Houthi militants vowed to punish the United States and the United Kingdom for pounding Houthi targets on Saturday. A coalition of countries supported attacks on 36 targets across 13 locations in Yemen, including rebel strongholds in the capital Sanaa, as the conflict between Israel, Hamas, and its proxies continued to spread well beyond Gaza. US forces also took out an anti-ship missile that was set to be used in the Red Sea.
The governments of Iran, Iraq, and Syria issued condemnations, and Russia called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council in New York on Monday. Iran also warned the US not to target two cargo ships suspected of serving as forward operating bases for Iranian commandos.
What’s next? In an attempt to quell rising tensions, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank between Sunday and Thursday. Blinken’s agenda includes the release of hostages held by Hamas, the establishment of a humanitarian pause in Gaza, and the safeguarding of maritime commerce in the Red Sea.
The logo of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is displayed on a window, during the 54th annual meeting of the WEF, in Davos, Switzerland, January 18, 2024.
Who’s skipping Davos – and watching the polls?
While Donald Trump was winning in Iowa and preparing for New Hampshire, economic and political elites were in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum … where they were worrying about a potential Trump 2.0.
As jets descended on Davos, there was plenty of chatter about who was and wasn’t in attendance. Five years ago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave a keynote at the confab. This year, he sat out along with most of his front bench. After chatter about the scarce Canadian contingent, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was added to the agenda, perhaps to make it seem like the Liberals weren’t working overtime to avoid hobnobbing with the jet set while Canadians struggle with affordability, housing, and healthcare crises. After all, his party is way behind in the polls, and Trudeau is taking flak – and facing a possible ethics investigation – over his winter vacation in Jamaica.
President Joe Biden also skipped Davos. His approval rating is…not great, hitting a new low this week. Like Trudeau, he may be inclined to stay close to home and focus on domestic issues as Americans face their own affordability crisis.
As worries about the large contingent from China working overtime at Davos for foreign investment circulate around Washington, Biden sent the soon-to-retire John Kerry and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, whose plane conked out before his trip back, to make the rounds and discuss climate change and the war in Gaza.
The American and Canadian Davos lineups remind us that foreign politics is often domestic politics abroad. Both Biden and Trudeau are in tough reelection races, with Biden likely to face Trump in November, and Trudeau set for a matchup with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre by October 2025. And neither man will find votes in Davos.