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NATO likely to respond if Russia sends North Korean troops to Ukraine
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With reports of North Korean troops in Kursk, what is the likelihood of NATO directly intervening in the Ukraine-Russia war?
I do think that North Korean troops fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war is a major escalation, will lead to tougher sanctions, will lead to greater likelihood the Americans decide to allow for Western missiles to be used to target targets inside Russia. But the ultimatum that's been given is that if Russia deploys North Korean troops inside Ukraine itself, then NATO will respond with combat troops in Ukraine. That is a major escalation in this war. It is meant for the Russians to take it very seriously. I hope that Putin accordingly decides to keep those North Korean troops in Russia itself. And I know that the Chinese also are very concerned about where this is going. So, we'll watch this very closely.
Moldova's pro-Western President secured a second term after narrow runoff win. Does her victory reflect Western strength against Putin?
I'm not so sure. I mean, first of all, of course, lots of efforts by the Russians themselves to interfere monetarily, disinformation in this election, the way they did successfully in Georgia. In the case of Moldova, you have an awful lot of Moldovans voting that were outside Moldova legally, but that's what turned this race. It wasn't the people on the ground. And it was, as mentioned in the question, very tight indeed. This helps them stay on track with the European Union membership. But there's a very large Russian population in breakaway Transnistria with Russian troops on the ground. And I suspect that Putin and the Kremlin has no interest in giving up on this. So, it's going to keep going in the coming years.
How is the political rift between Bolivia's government and the former President Evo Morales affecting the country's stability and economy?
Well, Bolivia, extremely mountainous, very easy to shut down the economy. Just roadblocks in some of the mountain roads that are hard to move along and that means that you can't get goods through and massive inflation. And that's what's happening right now. And he, though he's from the same party as the president, believes that he's being mistreated. They're going after him for all style of corruption. Does appear to be legitimate charges, but he has leverage with a lot of Bolivians that are turning out in his favor. So I suspect if they don't come to some kind of compromise, this is going to hurt the economy there quite a bit. Not the only place we have instability in the world. And then we'll see what happens in the US later today. Be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Bolivia's former President Evo Morales speaks during a press conference, in Cochabamba, Bolivia October 4, 2024.
Did Bolivia’s ex-president stage an assassination … on himself?
The day after former Bolivian President Evo Morales claimed to have survived an attempt on his life on Sunday, Interior Minister Eduardo de Castillo accused Morales of staging an attempt on his own life. Morales, for his part, claims the government attempted to kill him amid a massive power struggle that has divided the ruling party.
What does each side claim? Morales said in a radio interview that a convoy carrying him through Chapare — a rural bastion of both Morales voters and coca production — was stopped by masked men with weapons who shot at his car and wounded his driver before the convoy fled.
De Castillo, on the other hand, said in a news conference that Morales’ car had failed to stop at a drug checkpoint and ran over a police officer while attempting to flee, leading to a chase and small arms fire.
What’s the beef? Morales is technically from the same Movement Toward Socialism party that currently holds power in La Paz, but he and his erstwhile protegé, President Luis Arce, are in a bitter feud. Both men want to stand for election as president next year, but Morales has been found ineligible by the constitutional court (not that this will stop him).
We’re watching for more clarity about what really went down, and whether Morales still commands the populist charm that kept him in office from 2006-2013.
Photo taken on April 22, 2012, shows the Pantanal wetlands in western Brazil.
Hidrovia Project threatens Pantanal’s survival
The Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland that stretches between Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia, is under threat from the proposed Hidrovia Paraguay-Paraná waterway project, which aims to transform 434 miles of the Paraguay River into a commercial shipping route, driven by the demands of industrial agriculture, particularly soybean farming.
The Germany-sized wetland has already been degraded by agricultural expansion and drought, but scientists say the project could “end an entire biome” by shrinking the wetland and leaving hundreds of thousands of hectares of land vulnerable to wildfires. In 2024, fires there were the worst on record, with nearly 3.7 million acres burning across the Brazilian Pantanal by early August.
The argument for creating the waterway is that barges would be faster and cheaper for transporting goods like soybeans from Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia to the coastal seaports in Uruguay and Argentina where they are shipped to North America, Europe, and Asia.
However, due to droughts decreasing flooding in the region, scientists believe that even with dredging, the water level in the river would still be too low to allow navigation. Since 1985, the Pantanal has lost about 80% of its surface water – more than any other biome in Brazil.
A member of the military police walks amid tear gas as Bolivia's President Luis Arce "denounced the irregular mobilization" of some units of the country's army, in La Paz, Bolivia June 26, 2024.
Bolivia's coup lasts just hours
It was over almost as quickly as it began. On Wednesday, Bolivian state television broadcast images of armored military vehicles ramming the door of the government complex in La Paz on Wednesday, as soldiers occupied the capital city’s central square in an apparent coup attempt.
President Luis Arce called on irregular popular militias to fight back, but just hours later the soldiers had withdrawn from the square and top General Juan José Zuñiga, apparent leader of the coup attempt, was arrested.
Bolivia has experienced several years of upheaval since 2019, when leftwing populist Evo Morales -- the country's first Indigenous president -- was ousted amid mass protests over election irregularities after seeking an unconstitutional third term in power.
Morales was succeeded by interim president Jeanine Añez, an ultra-conservative opposition Senator, who led a deadly crackdown on protests by Morales’ largely rural and indigenous support base. In 2020, Arce, a one-time ally of Morales’, won the presidential election, and two years later, Añez was sentenced to a ten-year jail term over accusations that she had illegally taken power from Morales.
Part of the backdrop to the unrest is a failing economic model. Morales' once-booming strategy of tapping Bolivia's vast natural gas resources to lift millions out of poverty has long since hit the skids because of lower prices and shrinking production.
Morales himself, still a powerful figure, had denounced the coup on Wednesday, calling on his supporters to take to the streets.
And that's where the plot thickens: Morales and his former comrade Arce are now bitter rivals, jockeying for position ahead of the 2025 presidential elections.
Bolivian Vice President David Choquehuanca and President Luis Arce chew coca leaves during the celebration of the "acullico" tradition, where coca leaves are shared and alternative products made with coca are shown, in La Paz, Bolivia January 11, 2023.
Forget “Cocaine Bear,” here comes cocaine beer
Bolivia is diversifying its coca leaf products – from soaps and shampoos to a buzzy new beer. La Paz’s El Viejo Roble Distillery has launched a coca-infused brew set to hit the market at only $2 a bottle. It will be added to the list of its other coca-flavored drinks, including rum and vodka.
When can you try it? Getting this beer to global markets may prove challenging. Although coca-leaf products are legal and crucial to the Bolivian economy, these products are not in many other countries owing to their UN narcotic classification. Still, Bolivia is trying: It has initiated the coca review process to repeal its drug status with the support of fellow cocaine-leading countries Colombia and Mexico.
The WHO began its critical review of the leaf last fall – the first of many stages in the decriminalization process. These findings are key to Bolivia, as coca leaves hold great importance among Bolivians, both spiritually among Indigenous communities, and economically by supporting over 70,000 cocaleros (coca growers) and bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars of the country’s annual GDP.
Their research must be submitted by October, and the UN Convention on Narcotic Drugs will vote next year. We’ll be watching to see whether we can toast their decision with this new coca brew.
An Afghan man works in a poppy field in Nangarhar province in 2016.
Hard Numbers: Afghans' fewer poppies, Trump's lead in key states, Lake Titicaca’s lower water level, New Delhi's smog, Japan's new frigates, Swifties' tents
95: Once the world’s top opium supplier, Afghanistan has slashed its cultivation of opium poppies by a whopping 95%, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. The drop follows a Taliban edict banning opium cultivation.
5: Former President Donald Trump is leading in five of six battleground states in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College. The numbers indicate that Biden is trailing among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The president remains ahead in Wisconsin by the smallest of margins: two percentage points.
29: Over the past seven months, Lake Titicaca’s water level at the Peru-Bolivia border has fallen 29 inches to near-record lows. According to scientists, climate change is exacerbating this year’s El Nino phenomenon, layering heat on top of heat in South America’s largest freshwater lake.
471: In more bad environmental news, primary schools in New Delhi have been closed through Nov. 10 due to high pollution levels. On Sunday, the capital recorded an Air Quality Index reading of 471, a level considered hazardous.
12: The Japanese Ministry of Defense will acquire a total of 12 new Mogami class frigates over the next five years. The vessels will be used to defend the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan.
5: Die-hard Taylor Swift fans have been camped out in tents for 5 months for a chance at front-row seats to the singer’s Eras Tour concerts in Buenos Aires on Nov. 9, 10, and 11. Some Bad Blood has been reported between the tent dwellers and locals who say the Swifties should get jobs rather than spend days waiting for their idol – but despite the potentially Delicate situation, fans appear able to Shake it Off.
A group of demonstrators burns an image of the Prime Minister of Israel, BENJAMÍN NETANYAHU, during a protest in front of the Israel Embassy in Santiago, Chile, for his military actions in Gaza.
South American countries recall Israel envoys over Gaza
Colombia and Chile recalled their ambassadors to Israel, and Bolivia severed relations with the country entirely in reaction to the scorched-earth tactics used by Israeli forces in Gaza. All three governments fall under a left-wing tradition in Latin America that is heavily pro-Palestinian.
Bolivia has historically terrible relations with Israel, and the move is no surprise. Left-wing icon and former President Evo Morales first severed ties in 2009 after Israel invaded Gaza in late December 2008, and he praised sitting President (and protegé-turned-rival) Luis Arce’s decision.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro was formerly a member of the M-19 guerillas, a radical left-wing group that terrorized urban areas before demobilizing in 1991. He’s pushed the boundaries of decency in his condemnations of Israel, going so far as to liken the country’s actions to those of Hitler and the Third Reich.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric, less radical than Petro or Arce, has nevertheless been unequivocal in his criticism of Israel’s operations in Gaza while still condemning Hamas’ terrorist atrocities and pledging to work toward a two-state solution.
Colombia and Chile also have large ethnic Arab minorities, which tends to lend weight to discourse over Middle Eastern issues, but isn’t the proximate cause of the current spat. Up to 3.2 million Colombians are of Arab descent (ever heard of Shakira?). They’re mostly Lebanese but include around 100,000 people of Palestinian heritage.
Meanwhile, Chile is believed to have the largest Palestinian diaspora outside the Middle East, with up to 500,000 members. The community has tended to prosper, and remains visible in public life: The Club Deportivo Palestino plays in the colors of the Palestinian flag and has twice won Chile’s top-tier soccer league. Legislators of Palestinian descent have a caucus in Congress, and Chile has been an observer in the Arab League since 2005.
T-50 supersonic training planes take off for training at an airforce base in Gwangju, south of Seoul
Hard Numbers: US bombers soar in Asia, Bolivia’s car theft culture, deafening penalties for 3M, Europe’s Russian gas habit persists
20: Up to 20% of Bolivia’s cars are stolen from Chile, and there is a whole TikTok subculture, replete with its own music, of thieves doing stunts as they drive them across the desert that spans the border between the two countries. Ordinary Chileans are now using AI to try to crack down on the thefts.
6 billion: What’s that you said? 3M, the US consumer goods giant that makes everything from chemicals to plastics to Post-its, has agreed to pay $6 billion to US veterans and servicemembers who say the company’s earplugs failed to protect them from hearing damage. It’s the largest settlement of its kind in US history.
40: The EU’s imports of Russian Liquefied Natural Gas have jumped 40% this year, hitting record volumes. The bloc largely cut imports of piped Russian gas after the invasion of Ukraine and has promised to swear off Russian fossil fuels entirely by 2027, but the transition isn't easy. Still, the EU used to rely on the Kremlin for half its gas, now it’s less than a quarter.