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Brazil's X ban becomes a rallying cry for Bolsonaro
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Haven't spoken in a while about Brazil, and thought I might, given the demonstrations going on over the weekend and the big fight that is going on around democracy, around free speech, around the social media site that is known as Twitter/X. The issue here is that as in the United States, politics in Brazil exceptionally polarized and divided lots of issues questioning the future of the country's democracy, whether or not you can have a free and fair transition. January 8th in Brazil has the resonance for part of its population the way that January 6th does in the United States, participants seen as patriots by the other part of the population. You see where we're going here. One big difference between Brazil and the United States is in the United States, the Supreme Court, while it has at times a liberal and presently a conservative bent, is still an independent organization that is very separate from the executive.
In Brazil, it is much more politicized and corrupt. And specifically the effort to take down Twitter / X, in Brazil as well as freeze the accounts of Starlink for example, also owned by Elon Musk, has been overreach, politicized overreach by one specific Supreme Court member, Alexandre de Moraes, and has been approved by the Supreme Court as a whole. Now the issue here is a number of accounts that were disseminating disinformation, fake news, and claimed by the government needed to be taken down by Twitter / X. Twitter / X has refused to do so. And that angered those on the left in Brazil, especially because when other demands are made to remove individual accounts in other countries, like in Turkey or the UAE, which are made with similarly, I would say, tenuous justification, but if that's what the political leaders are saying in that country, that amounts to an order by a relevant authority.
Twitter / X has historically overwhelmingly complied and, indeed, taken down those accounts. We've seen that in a number of countries, not all the time but most of the time, and that hasn't been the case in Brazil. Is the reason why Elon Musk and Twitter refuse to remove these accounts because he's politically aligned or sympathetic with them? Certainly that would be the argument that is being made in Brazil. But there is an opportunity here from the conservatives, including from former President Bolsonaro to use this and the opposition to freedom of speech as a rallying call. And that was what we saw in these demonstrations over the weekend. They were significant. You might've seen the photos. About 50,000 total on Brazil's Independence Day, that's September 7th, in Sao Paulo attending the rally. They're small historically in context. I mean, Bolsonaro back in February got almost 200,000 protesters, so about four times as many to attend a rally also in Sao Paulo.
But it was significant because it does show that the defense of liberty and democracy is a rallying cry of the opposition in the next presidential election that's coming up in 2026, which is not so far away. And both Bolsonaro's speech as well as most of the conservative leaders that appeared with him, like the Sao Paulo governor for example, had heavy, heavy criticism of the Supreme Court ruling and specifically of Justice de Moraes, as we've seen from Elon. And they are accusing the Supreme Court of undermining freedom of speech. With the ongoing court investigations both about disseminating false information about the electoral system and about the January 8th attacks in Brasilia. And the fact that X has now been banned from Brazil after Elon has refused to comply. And by the way, I mean it's not the most important, it's a comparatively small social media site in Brazil.
There are others that are much more popular. But still this is getting a lot of attention because it is such a political grenade, and that is helping the conservative opposition in Brazil say that individual freedoms are being undermined. And the interesting point here is this is related to the United States. Both sides of the aisle in Brazil just like both sides of the aisle in the United States believe that the other side is a threat to democracy in ways that you don't see in Canada, or the UK, or France, or Germany, or Japan, or South Korea. I would say Brazil is the one major democracy that most feels like the United States in terms of this level of political dysfunction. But what's interesting is that it is the Bolsonaro-led opposition that is using the defense of democracy and liberty to mobilize its base before the 2026 elections. This has historically been much more of a calling card of the left. And in the United States democratic voters care more about the issue of defending democracy as a political issue than Republicans do, in Brazil conservative voters care more about defense of democracy than voters on the left. And this fight that was started by the Supreme Court is playing into that narrative. So interesting, worth talking about, getting a lot of attention. Thought I would throw my own two cents in, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Hard Numbers: Liberian president cuts his own pay, Myanmar civilian deaths reach record pace, STDs surge among seniors, “Jewelrygate” in Brazil
40: Amid a rising cost-of-living crisis in his country, Liberian President Joseph Boakai, who took office in January, has slashed his own salary by 40%. The gesture of solidarity, which echoes a similar move by his predecessor, will bring his yearly pay down to $8,000. Liberia’s GDP per capita is about $800 a year, among the lowest of any country in the world.
359: Airstrikes by Myanmar’s military junta killed at least 359 civilians between January and April, putting the regime on pace to kill more noncombatants in 2024 than in the previous three years combined. In the three years since it took power in a coup, the junta has been waging war against a patchwork of regional and ethnic militias. The US has tried to sanction the sale of jet fuel to the Myanmar regime, but China and Vietnam have skirted those efforts. For the historical background, see here.
24: Grandma! Grandpa! What are you DOING in there??!! During the pandemic, diagnoses of sexually transmitted diseases among US senior citizens jumped by nearly 24%, new data show. That’s the highest of any age group. And to think, staying inside was supposed to “stop the spread”? (OK, we’ll just stop there.)
1.2 million: Federal police in Brazil say a crime group with links to right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro tried to illegally sell $1.2 million worth of jewels, watches, and other luxury gifts from foreign leaders. The cash was allegedly funneled into accounts controlled by Bolsonaro and his family. The populist Bolsonaro, a one-time political outsider, won the 2018 election in part by promising to tackle Brazil’s rampant corruption, but watchdogs say he was part of the problem.
GZERO End-of-the-Year lists: Top 5 political animals of 2023
1. Sally the Sea Lion
Sally the Sea Lion | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
If there haven’t already been children’s books written about Sally the Central Park Sea Lion’s grand day out, there soon will be. In September, unusually heavy rains and flooding helped Sally escape her enclosure to explore other parts of the Central Park Zoo, a favorite for the city’s kids. As zoo workers watched over her, Sally then took a self-guided tour of her surroundings. Sensibly, she decided that Central Park itself is better suited for joggers, cyclists, and weirdos than for sea lions, and she returned to the comforts of her enclosure and the companionship of the other two sea lions who lived there.
2. Cocaine hippos
Cocaine hippos | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Less adorable – and far less trustworthy – are the late Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar’s “cocaine hippos.” Before his predictably violent death in 1993, Escobar had acquired zebras, giraffes, hippos, kangaroos, and rhinoceroses as pets. After his death, most of the animals perished or were moved to zoos. But hippopotamuses are not so easy to handle, so four of them stayed put. By October 2023, they had multiplied, as hippos do, to about 170 roaming freely in the countryside. Colombian officials recently announced plans to sterilize and cull some of them and relocate the rest to sanctuaries overseas. And no, unlike their infamous owner, these hippos aren’t in the drug game — they’ve just won a narcotic nickname.
3. First Dog
First Dog | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Unlike Escobar’s largest pets, President Biden's dog Commander will not be allowed to roam the countryside unattended, but the German shepherd was evicted from his home at the White House in October for attempting to answer an age-old question: Do all Secret Service agents taste the same? In less than two years, Commander has bitten about a dozen people – that we know of. Another Biden family pet, Major, was exiled to Delaware following a number of biting incidents. Commander, like Major, has now retreated from public life.
4. Panda-monium
Panda-monium | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Escalating tensions between the US and China led Beijing to take back its pandas Tian Tian, Mei Xiang, and their cub Xiao Qi Ji from their home in the National Zoo in Washington, DC. The move marks the beginning of the end of Panda Diplomacy between the two countries, with the Atlanta Zoo’s pandas (the last in the US) expected to be returned to China next year. Panda diplomacy began with President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China and Chairman Mao Zedong’s gift of two giant pandas to the United States as a sign of warming bilateral ties. The “gift” agreements, however, stipulate that Beijing still owns the pandas and any of their offspring, which they can take back at any time.
5. Humpback harassment
Bolsonaro whales | GZERO 2023 Political Animals
Finally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is enjoying his court-ordered hiatus from politics with a new hobby: Jetskiing around whales. “Captain Chainsaw,” the nickname Bolsonaro earned for his anti-environmental policies and devastation of the Amazon, was spotted on his Jet Ski close to a humpback whale that was showing signs of distress. Adding to his long list of misdeeds on land, Bolsonaro is now under investigation for allegedly harassing a surfacing cetacean.
- Hard Numbers: South China Sea war games, Chinese sour on America, US chipmaking labor shortage, Ya Ya breaks the internet ›
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Kids, it's time to party with.. Jair Bolsonaro!!
The former Brazilian president now sells Bolsonaro-themed birthday party packs -- in real life! But what happens when Puppet Regime invites him to host an ACTUAL party?
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Who the heck is Javier Milei?
Perhaps you’ve heard about Argentina’s new presidential frontrunner. His name is Javier Milei, and his raucous political rallies feature him as a ranting, raving, rock star who wants to “blow up” the country’s political lethargy.
His charisma approaches the level of Donald Trump, a leader he says he admires. He wants to make the US dollar Argentina’s legal currency, close down the country’s central bank, and legalize the sale of human organs without government interference. He has argued that sex education in Argentina’s schools is part of an elite plot to destroy the traditional family.
Milei’s campaign style suggests he’s usually the last to leave the karaoke bar.
And it’s precisely because of his libertarian – some would say anarchic – views and his open hatred for a political class that has failed to pull Argentina from a chronic economic crisis that his star is on the rise.
We know he’s a leading contender because Argentina has a political process that asks voters to indicate their preference for president two months before the election. In August, Milei won a jaw-dropping 30% plus of the vote in a race that included 22 candidates. The main center-right opposition bloc won 28%. The ruling leftist Peronist coalition took 27%.
The election will be held on Sunday, and with an inflation rate of 116% that keeps 40% of the country in poverty, it’s not hard to see why many voters might turn to a self-proclaimed political arsonist.
If this political dynamic sounds familiar, it’s because anti-politician politicians have become a phenomenon in recent years. Trump represented a complete break with the American political class, personified perfectly by Hillary Clinton. In 2018, exhausted by the scandals and stagnating economy under left-wing governments, Brazilian voters turned to profane former paratrooper Jair Bolsonaro.
But this isn’t just a right-wing phenomenon. French voters chose Emmanuel Macron in 2017 in part because he challenged both the center-right and center-left establishment parties that dominated France for decades. Like Macron, Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador created his own political party and drove it to power in 2018 by challenging a political class perceived as hopelessly corrupt. On the left, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro represented a similar let’s-just-start-over approach to political problem-solving.
It should be noted, however, that Trump was impeached twice, indicted four times, lost his bid for reelection, and is now running again with a national approval rating of 40%. Bolsonaro lost his bid for reelection too, and he’s now banned from running for office for eight years. Macron and Petro have become deeply unpopular. Only López Obrador has managed to defy political gravity while governing as a political outsider.
Argentina’s voters will decide on Sunday just how serious they are about a Javier Milei presidency. The most recent polls say the vote might be close, but Milei remains the favorite.
- Argentina's economy will get a lot worse before it gets better - GZERO Media ›
- How Javier Milei is turning Argentina's economy around - GZERO Media ›
- Milei is beating the odds. Will it last? - GZERO Media ›
- Argentina's President Javier Milei wants his nation "on the side of liberal democracies" - GZERO Media ›
Bolsonaro banned from flying too!
The Brazilian president gets some bad news at the airport, and can't understand why.
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Israel/Palestine one of the few Middle East areas getting less stable
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Israel launched its biggest military operation in the West Bank since 2002. How will it impact Israeli-Palestinian stability?
Well, I mean, pretty badly. The problem is that Israel has no interest in reopening talks with the Palestinians on a potential two-state solution. The country has moved towards the Right on that issue, and the Palestinians don't have effective governance, for the Palestinian authority in the West Bank is increasingly weakened and in Gaza, it's really a matter of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So, there's no movement towards talking. Instead, it's the Israelis taking more territory, building more settlements, and the Palestinians getting angrier and more desperate. And no surprise that you're going to see more military confrontation on the back of that. Having said that, it's one of the few areas where things aren't getting more stable in the Middle East, almost everywhere else, the Gulf, Iran's relations with the GCC, Qatar and the GCC, Assad getting normalized, Yemen with a ceasefire, most of the Middle East actually looks more stable.
Is Bolsonaro's political career over?
Well, they say he can't run, the judiciary has said, now he can't, he's out of politics till 2030. I mean, you know, if you look at the United States, he'd still have a couple of decades going, right? You look at Biden and Trump, you just never retire if you're an American political leader. You get to govern forever or at least keep running. But Bolsonaro will still be by far the most popular leader on the Right and therefore has kingmaker status. I think, you know, who he decides he'd like to see as running for the presidency in the next electoral cycle will have a significant leg up. And by the way, he increasingly talks about his wife in that role. So, I mean, keep it in the family. Why not?
Okay, with student loan forgiveness struck down, does it hurt Biden's reelection efforts?
Yeah, I think it does, on balance. I mean, the fact that the executive increasingly is showing that it is on the back foot vis-à-vis not just a legislature that's very polarized, though they have had some wins there, but also a 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court, and that that has struck down a number of issues that is hurting them, I think that does matter. I think a promise to forgive student loans and not being able to get that done quickly or as big is a promise that Biden, you know, he can say, I'm still working for you, but if he can't get it done, people aren't benefiting. On affirmative action, it's more in between. I mean, then it depends on how the question is phrased, whether or not it's actually popular, unpopular. On balance, I would say striking it down as more with the population as opposed to the abortion issue, where clearly the population is on the side of Roe and against today's Supreme Court. So still very, very polarized, the US. Not surprised, that's sort of the theme of the day. I hope everyone is well and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Bolsonaro gets benched
Brazil’s electoral court has forbidden former President Jair Bolsonaro from running for public office until 2030. The decision takes a top contender out of the 2026 presidential race after finding Bolsonaro guilty of violating election laws and undermining trust in the country’s electoral system.
Wait, what happened again? Bolsonaro, a far-right populist, rose to power in 2018 by harnessing a conservative “beef, bible, and bullets” voting base. In 2022, he narrowly lost to his left-wing rival, “Lula” da Silva, but not before he had spread baseless claims about problems with Brazil’s voting systems. After he lost, these claims spurred his supporters to storm government offices, hoping to induce a military takeover that would restore Bolsonaro to power.
What does this mean? Depends on whose side you're on. While Lula and the political establishment see the ruling as just punishment for Bolsonaro nearly inciting a coup, Bolsonaro’s followers will perceive it as further evidence that Brazil’s institutions are hopelessly rigged against them. Protests are possible in the coming days.
Making kings from the sidelines. Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula by less than two points, remains the country’s most prominent opposition figure, and his party and its allies have a commanding presence in Brazil’s fractious congress.
While he is likely to appeal the ruling, he has announced that he “won’t push it,” knowing that even if he’s stuck on the bench, he’ll still be able to play a kingmaker role in the upcoming local and presidential elections.
This isn’t Bolsonaro’s only legal headache. He is facing another 15 charges in the electoral court and several criminal investigations related to alleged incitement of his supporters’ riots after the election. Those charges all carry a penalty of disqualification from holding public office as well.