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Ukraine frustrated by delay on long-range weapons
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Kyiv, Ukraine.
What's the reaction on the discussions ongoing considering the possibility of Ukrainians to use long-range strike weapons?
Well, a lot of dissatisfaction here in Kyiv. There was the visit by Secretary Blinken and Foreign Secretary Lammy here. There were discussions between President Biden and Prime Minister Starmer in Washington, but no decision. And the Ukrainians really want to be able to strike back at the air bases from which the Russians are launching attacks, trying to completely demolish the Ukrainian energy system. I understand discussions will continue and it will have an impact on the mood here and possibly the conduct of the war.
What's the reaction to Germany's decision to partly at least reimpose on their border controls?
The reaction has been rather negative to put it mildly, as an understanding for the domestic political circumstances leading to the decision by the German government. But here's to take one example, Polish Prime Minister Tusk was scheduled to go to Berlin on a working visit. He canceled that in order to make it clear to the Germans that reimposing controls on the German-Polish border he considered to be contrary to the spirit of cooperation. So expect more on that particular story.
Why Republicans hold Biden accountable for border problems
President Truman famously had a sign on his Oval Office desk that read: "The buck stops here." Indiana Republican Congresswoman Victoria Spartz believes that truth holds when it comes to President Biden and US immigration dysfunction as well.
"I will lay responsibility on President Biden because he is in charge," Spartz tells Ian Bremmer in an interview for GZERO World. "He's a top executive president. Trump is campaigning to be president, so I'll judge him if he is a president, I think he will likely might be."
Ian interviewed House members on both sides of the political aisle for this episode, and Spartz, a Ukrainian immigrant who supports increased US aid to her home country, is not surprised that the bipartisan border deal could not deliver it.
Watch full episode here: The US border at a tipping point
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem ›
- Will Democrats and Republicans head for the border? ›
- Migrant and housing crises hit both sides of border ›
- Hard Numbers: A loss for the GOP in Ohio, Poland beefs up border, shark attacks in Gotham, chips fall well for Dresden, Chinese parents swipe for their kids ›
- Zelensky agrees with GOP on border crisis ›
The US border crisis at a tipping point
How do you solve a problem like the US southern border? If that question makes you hum a certain Sound of Music song, just know that it's more pleasant than whatever has been floating through the minds of the hundreds of members of the US Congress. Because if there was ever a week of dysfunction on Capitol Hill, this was it. Congress failed to advance, or even entertain, a bipartisan US border deal, which also included much-needed funding to Ukraine. Why? Because of a man who is not even in government now, but very well might be back again soon: Former President Donald Trump. To unpack why the border crisis is getting worse instead of better, Ian Bremmer speaks with lawmakers on opposing sides of the aisle in Capitol Hill.
"We have an urgent need for funding for Ukraine," California Democratic Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren says in an interview for GZERO World.. "I mean, urgent...I look at some of my colleagues, and it's like the communist wing of the Republican party. They're ditching Taiwan to China, ditching Ukraine to the Russians. I mean, it's really unbelievable."
Republican Congresswoman and Ukrainian immigrant Victoria Spartz, however, defended why she wouldn't support a border deal in the current form. "I don't think that this piece of legislation really addresses the important issues and strategies that we have to deal with. I don't think it's really addresses in our border situation. It's just kind of lipstick on a pig."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Texas takes immigration into its own hands ›
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- Immigration: A political minefield for Biden and Trudeau ›
- Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem ›
- Biden challenges Texas immigration law ›
- The New York migrant crisis up close - GZERO Media ›
Border disorder: Why Capitol Hill lawmakers disagree on the US immigration crisis
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we're tackling America’s border crisis. And by the way, things have gotten so bad in recent years that both Republicans and Democrats alike are now acknowledging that the influx of migrants is, indeed, a crisis. In December alone, US Border Patrol tallied a record-high 250,000 arrests, up thirteen percent from the previous record set in December 2022.
Why have things gotten so bad, and what can be done to solve the crisis at the border? And why is a bipartisan bill to address the problem sure never to become law? To understand these, Ian is joined by two US House members who serve on the House immigration subcommittee: First, by California Democrat Zoe Lofgren and later by Indiana Republican Victoria Spartz.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Zelensky agrees with GOP on border crisis ›
- Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem ›
- Biden challenges Texas immigration law ›
- Immigration: A political minefield for Biden and Trudeau ›
- Texas takes immigration into its own hands ›
- Will Biden's immigration order help border control...and his campaign? - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem
In this edition of Ian Explains, we look at the border deal that wasn’t and try to answer a very complicated question: Why is our immigration system so broken?
The US is a country of multiple realities. The economy is booming. Everything is expensive. Donald Trump is a threat to democracy. Donald Trump is the leader of the GOP. Taylor Swift is a pop icon. Taylor Swift is a Deep State asset. And then there’s immigration. In one reality, Democrats and Republicans have come together on legislation to secure the Southern border at a time when bipartisanship in Washington is all but unheard of. But in another reality, none of that matters, because the bill will never become law, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
So how did we get to this point, and why won’t anything come of it? The answer to the first question starts with Ukraine. Late last summer, US funding for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion (talk about a border crisis) was drying up. And for the first time since the war began, it was looking like Republicans were not going to approve more money until THEIR key national security issue was addressed.
Then President Biden did something truly unexpected. He said: “Ok.”
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television this weekend (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
- What We’re Watching: China’s open door, sticky US border policy, Iran’s “mercy” deficit, Kosovo’s creeping crisis, Nepal’s “Terrible” new top dog ›
- Stalled deal on US border security leaves Ukraine in the lurch ›
- Will US-Canada border deal mean riskier future for migrants? ›
- The Graphic Truth: Black representation in the US Congress ›
- Border disorder: Why Capitol Hill lawmakers disagree on the US immigration crisis - GZERO Media ›
- Why Republicans hold Biden accountable for border problems - GZERO Media ›
- The New York migrant crisis up close - GZERO Media ›
Zelensky agrees with GOP on border crisis
The Ukrainian president and the GOP have the same view, in a way.
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
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- World High: Biden won’t let Zelensky rush ›
- Putin and Zelensky at the Forgotten Wars Bar ›
- Actors strike: Putin and Kim cross the picket line ›
- Vladimir Putin, film critic ›
- Border disorder: Why Capitol Hill lawmakers disagree on the US immigration crisis - GZERO Media ›
- Why Republicans hold Biden accountable for border problems - GZERO Media ›
Senator James Lankford (R-OK) speaks to media during a Senate vote, at the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, February 1, 2024.
Senate announces plan for Ukraine-Border deal – Trump calls it “meaningless”
A bipartisan group of US Senators released an outline of a deal Sunday that would send billions to Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza and beef up US border security after months of wrangling. Too bad House Speaker Mike Johnson called it “dead on arrival.”
Show me the money. Overall, the price tag will cross $118 billion, including ~$60 billion for Ukraine, ~$20 billion for border security, ~$14 billion in security aid to Israel, and ~$10 billion for humanitarian aid in Gaza. The bill also creates new pathways to legal migration and raises the standards of evidence a migrant faces persecution at home needed to claim asylum. Folks who meet the new standards will be able to work and live in the US pending a hearing, and especially compelling cases may even be granted asylum on the spot by an immigration officer.
Will it see the light of day? With former President Donald Trump actively campaigning against the bill, smart money says “no.” He’d like to keep the immigration issue in the headlines to hammer President Joe Biden with – and the situation underscores the dynamics within the Republican Party, where a candidate who holds no office is influencing legislative priorities.
The fact is, Johnson stands to lose his job – just like his predecessor did – if he crosses Trump on this, so his diagnosis may prove prescient.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as they meet during the Ninth Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, California, U.S., June 9, 2022.
US green subsidies pushback to dominate Biden's Canada trip
As Ottawa prepares for a two-day visit by President Joe Biden starting Thursday, Canadians have been speculating about whether he will do something to stop the northward flow of border crossings by undocumented migrants at Roxham Road, Quebec.
That problem is grabbing headlines, but it is nothing next to the border challenges the Americans face, and the Canadians likely have more important requests for Biden. Behind the scenes, the government is focused on getting Americans to help mitigate the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate spending package in US history, which could lead to the loss of capital and jobs from Canada.
The $350 billion IRA stimulus package is a challenge to both Canada and Europe, with subsidies and open-ended tax credits that offer huge savings to clean-technology companies that shift their operations to the United States. It is expected to be a game-changer for emission reductions, but also a threat to allied countries who can’t match the Americans’ spending power.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was in Washington this month to try to come to terms with the Americans over the nature of the threat, and the EU appears poised to match American incentives. That will come too late to save a Volkswagen battery plant that had been planned for Eastern Europe.
Not coincidentally, the German auto giant just announced plans to build a battery plant in St. Thomas, Ontario, where it can benefit from American subsidies because the auto industry is covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. That looks like a big win for Canada, but … other sectors do not enjoy the same protection, which means that companies – Canadian and foreign firms in Canada in the manufacturing, green energy, and petroleum sectors – may be tempted to move south of the border to take advantage of generous tax credits.
Canada can’t afford to woo these businesses in the same way, so it needs to match US subsidies in key sectors while also asking the Americans, very politely, to play nice.
“The IRA is the biggest piece of industrial policy coming out of the United States for a very long time, and everybody else is now adjusting to that, and [Canadians] are distinctly exposed,” says Graeme Thompson, a Eurasia Group senior analyst. “All gears are firing in Ottawa to manage the challenge that poses to competitiveness so that the US doesn't just suck up all of the investments that we'd otherwise be after.”
That task is front of mind for Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who will present her third budget four days after Biden leaves. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government likely sees the two events as a one-two punch, an opportunity to wrest control of the headlines for a few days.
Biden’s visit gives Trudeau an opportunity for positive messaging. For Gerald Butts, vice chairman of Eurasia Group and former principal secretary to Trudeau, the government likely hopes to change the channel from the China election interference story, which has dominated the news in Canada for weeks.
“They've clearly got a bunch of stuff lined up where they want to make some announcements there and then run into the budget,” he says. “I think what they're hoping to do, obviously, is get control back of the communications agenda from this crazy China stuff.”
So it’s clear what Biden can do to help Canada. But what can Canada do for him?
Freeland has previously promoted US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s notion of “friendshoring,” building supply chains in allied economies. Her exact plans remain unknown, but Canada can offer the Americans access to critical minerals vital to green energy — like lithium and copper — and take steps to streamline approval for mining projects, although Indigenous land rights may make it impossible to go as quickly as industry would like.
Biden is also seeking more help in Ukraine and Haiti. The US wants Ottawa to play a lead role in planning for Ukraine’s reconstruction, which is reasonable. But nobody thinks Canada will do what Biden wants and put peacekeepers on the ground in Haiti, where gangs have turned the national capital into a hellscape. On the other hand, a lack of action will likely lead to even more desperate migrants heading north – a political problem for both governments, which brings us full circle to migration.
Trudeau wants the US to renegotiate the terms of the Safe Third Country Agreement, which requires that asylum-seekers who cross select parts of the US-Canada 5,525-mile border be sent back to the country where they first entered. Trouble is, this encourages migrants to enter at irregular crossings, such as Roxham Road, and once they’re in Canada, they can legally make asylum claims. The Americans have been noncommittal, and they point to uncontrolled irregular crossings in the other direction: Mexicans who can fly into Canada without a visa and then make a short river crossing to the United States.
From the US perspective, Canada is not doing its part, says Christopher Sands, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute.
“We have problems on both our borders,” he says. “You think your border's better, but we both have illegal crossers and we are just as mad about all of them. You're not any better than the Mexicans. We should get better co-operation from you. It's been one of those debates.”
Biden isn’t likely to renegotiate the STCA unless Canada agrees to do more to control the traffic going the other way, and maybe agrees to take more migrants from Central America.
“I think it's gonna be very tough for the president to do much when he's in Canada,” Sands says.
On the other hand, Trudeau and Biden are progressive political allies, and both are struggling with lackluster approval ratings, so they may want to make some deals and show progress on issues that matter on the ground to voters in both countries.
Fun fact: Biden is the first president to spend a night in Ottawa since George W. Bush came north to thank Canada for its help after 9/11. He’s likely not spending so much time — a precious commodity for the world’s most powerful man — without intending to do something that matters.
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In a world of increasing chaos, the US-Canada relationship is more crucial than ever, from trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology. To meet the moment, we’re launching GZERO North, a new weekly newsletter offering you an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today!
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