Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Graphic Truth: BRICS economies eclipse the G7
In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.
Five years later, reality imitated art when the countries decided to begin meeting regularly at “BRIC summits,” with the latest occurring in Kazan, Russia, this week. The subsequent inclusion of South Africa upgraded the “s” to a capital letter: the BRICS.
The group, which lacks formal treaties or binding obligations, has always been united more by what it opposes — US dominance of global financial systems — than by what it supports.
After all, it’s a hodgepodge: energy exporters (Brazil and Russia) and importers (China and India), democracies (India and Brazil) and non-democracies (China and Russia), allies (Russia ❤️China) and adversaries (India x China).
But the economic clout of the group is, on paper, formidable. With the addition of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates this year, the BRICS+ economies account for 36% of global GDP – while the G7 group of wealthy democracies amount to just 29%. But, of course, there’s a catch: China and the US each contribute more than half of their respective group’s GDP.
Here’s a look at the economic size, and breakdown, of the BRICS+ and the G7 group it hopes one day to eclipse — not only economically but also geopolitically.
Hard Numbers: X marks the spot in Brazil again, China stocks plummet on stimulus worries, Cameroon insists on presidential signs of life, Hungary embraces the olive
5: X was officially reinstated in Brazil, ending a five week ban of the social media platform, which had failed to comply with court orders to remove accounts that were spreading disinformation. X owner Elon Musk had initially defied the orders and refused to pay related fines, styling himself as a defender of free speech. In the end, Musk and X caved as the ban had caused Brazil’s 40 million X users to start using other sites instead.
7: Mainland China’s benchmark stock index plummeted 7% on Tuesday, in the largest single day drop since February 2020, a time when COVID was first spreading rapidly in the country. Analysts suggested the drop, which snapped a 10-day streak of gains, reflected fading optimism that the Chinese government’s current stimulus policies will be enough to perk up a sluggish economy.
31: He is not dead. Repeat. Not dead. That’s the official word from the Cameroonian government about 91-year old president, Paul Biya, who has not been seen in public in 32 days. Biya, who has held power since 1982, was last spotted leaving a China-Africa summit in Beijing on Sept. 8. Since then, he has missed a number of high profile events, including the entire UN General Assembly in New York.
12.35: Hungary is known for the delicacy of its goulash, the harmonies of Franz Liszt, and the architectural beauties of Budapest. But olive oil? Too chilly right? Not any more. Hungarian farmers are increasingly planting olive trees as climate change shifts the temperate zones of Europe northward and inflicts more frequent droughts on traditional Mediterranean olive habitats like Spain. A mere tenth of a liter of the stuff from Hungary now fetches $12.35 in neighboring Slovenia.Zelensky snubs China’s peace push, Trump vows to end war “very quickly”
Switzerland’s foreign ministry expressed support for the peace plan China and Brazil are pushing to end Russia’s war in Ukraine on Sunday, but it’s a non-starter for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said he “cannot understand the logic of Switzerland’s decision.”The plan would require Ukraine and Russia to begin negotiations in an international peace conference without any guarantee of Ukraine retaining its territorial integrity.
After the plan was pitched at the UN General Assembly on Friday, Zelensky said that proposing “alternatives, half-hearted settlement plans, so-called sets of principles” would only allow Moscow to continue waging war. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was equally dismissive of Beijing’s efforts,commenting that “China is allowing its companies to take actions that are actually helping Putin continue the aggression.”
Meanwhile, at Trump Tower…
Zelensky also met with Republican presidential contender Donald Trump on Friday, hoping to shore up his support amid weakening resolve from key Republicans. Trump promised to settle the war "very quickly" if elected in November, claiming a good relationship with both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.Zelensky described the meeting as “very productive,” stating on X: “We share the common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must prevail.”Telegram and X back down
Score this one Nation-States 2, Tech Tycoons 0?
Pavel Durov, the CEO of the messaging app Telegram who was arrested recently in France on charges that his platform facilitated criminal activity and was refusing to help law enforcement investigate, has changed his tune.
After initially claiming it was “absurd” to hold a platform responsible for illicit content, Telegram now says it will share information with law enforcement “in response to valid legal requests.”
The about-face came just days after self-styled “free speech” crusader Elon Muskclimbed down in his battle with Brazil. To refresh: Last month, Musk rejected a Brazilian court order for X to deactivate certain disinformation accounts, refused to pay relevant fines, removed X’s local legal rep, and launched a meme war against Brazil’s controversial disinformation czar.
As a result, X was banned outright in the 200-million-strong country, and that seems to have turned the tables. Now, the company is reportedly ready to take down the accounts, reappoint a rep in Brazil, and pay fines.
Depending on your politics, you may see all of this as a victory for the nation-state (nearly undefeated since the Peace of Westphalia, as GZERO’s Matt Kendrick points out) or as a hit to free speech and privacy. What’s your view? Share with us here.
Three ways to look at Brazil’s fight with Elon Musk
What on Earth is going on in Brazil? The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, is locked in a high-profile, increasingly nasty clash with Latin America’s largest economy, which has recently banned Musk’s X platform.
There are strong feelings and spicy memes. The X boss has accused his main opponent, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, of being “Voldemort” and “Darth Vader.” The dispute has even reached low-Earth orbit, ensnaring Musk’s Starlink satellites.
There are a few different ways to understand the spat – as a fight over speech, over sovereignty, or over egos. Each sheds light on a bigger issue in the increasingly fraught relationship between tech companies and national governments.
But first, the backstory.
For five years, Moraes has been investigating online disinformation and perceived online threats to Brazil’s democracy.
He has focused particular attention on accounts related, or sympathetic, to former President Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing firebrand whose followers – whipped into a frenzy by (false) online allegations of vote rigging – ransacked Congress after he lost the 2022 election.
Moraes – whose prominent brow and perfectly bald pate do give him a bit of an Orlokian air, even if Voldemort is a stretch – has ordered raids on politicians’ homes, frozen their bank accounts, and even got Bolsonaro himself banned from politics for eight years.
His supporters say he’s fighting to protect democracy in an extremely online country that has a recent history of dictatorship. His critics say he’s playing loose with the law, overreaching, and pursuing an ideological agenda that suppresses free speech.
Enter Musk.
Not long ago, Moraes ordered X to suspend several popular accounts without naming them or explaining why. Musk, who now styles himself as a free speech defender (so long as he isn’t doing the defending in, say, India or Turkey, where he has complied with government demands to ban content), said the orders were illegal. He laid off a bunch of local staff rather than comply (while still leaving the service running).
Moraes, in turn, shut down X entirely in Brazil on the grounds that the company now lacked a local legal representative. As of a week ago, X no longer functions there. For X-ers in the rest of the world, the site has run extensive threads on what they say is Moraes’ overreach.
Ordinary Brazilians are split over the ban, but to be fair, X isn’t even among the top five social media apps in the country. (If you know Brazil, you know that if Moraes were to shut down, say, WhatsApp, there would either be a revolution or the country would simply evaporate in 24 hours.) Things could stay like this for a while.
So what’s this all about?
View one: It’s about speech! It’s no secret that governments around the world are grappling with the security and political stability implications of massive, unfiltered communications platforms where the velocity and reach of truth, lies, opinions, and cat memes is simply unprecedented.
“There’s a common thread of governments these days getting impatient with the platforms’ inability to self-police,” says Alexis Serfaty, a technology policy expert at Eurasia Group. “And they’re trying to act against a range of threats that they see, from public safety, to public health, and even to political stability.”
This explains X’s simultaneous legal battle with the EU over content moderation, as well as France’s charges against Telegram, which it accuses of prioritizing free speech over public safety and respect for local laws.
For a democracy, Brazil has especially expansive rules on what the government can try to root out – critics point out that the country now joins Russia, China, and Iran on the list of places where X is banned.
And if companies want to be there, they have to follow those rules, sure. But in the broader perspective, is the opaque policing of speech like this really the best way to preserve a democracy?
View two: It’s about sovereignty! Moraes has said as much. But this isn’t your grandad’s clash between multinational companies and national governments. The big global companies of yore – oil, mining, manufacturing – operated in a small number of sectors and had little direct contact with the public at large. Today’s tech firms, by contrast, shape the discourse, perceptions, politics, commerce, and even romances of billions of people globally all day, every day.
That’s a new kind of power – a very smart and well-known person I work with has dubbed it the “Technopolar world” – and we haven’t figured out yet what the balance of that power is.
View three: It’s about me! Moraes and Musk are two of the biggest egos on the planet. Part of this fight is personal, but not in the way you might think: Each of these men sees the outcome of this conflict as setting a big precedent.
“It’ll be interesting to see what happens in Brazil,” says Serfaty, “because I think if a government has success enforcing a specific action against a specific company – does that encourage more regulatory or other kinds of enforcement action in different countries? Does that kind of give them a little bit of momentum to push that forward?”
Should it? Where are the right lines between speech and safety, companies and countries? Let me know your thoughts here, and I’ll run some of the best responses in an upcoming mailbag.
Hard Numbers: Georgia school shooting, Harris' tax policy, Grenfell inquiry blames deaths on “incompetence,” Lebanon embezzlement scandal grows, Musk blinks in Brazil dispute, Heavy cars kill more people than they save
4: Four people -- two students and two teachers -- were killed and 30 wounded when a gunman opened fire at a high school in suburban Atlanta on Wednesday. The 14-year-old student accused of carrying out the shooting is in custody, and had been interviewed by the F.B.I last year for making school shooting threats online. For a look at the skyrocketing number of US school shootings over the past decade, see our recent Graphic Truth here.
28: Kamala Harris released her tax policy on Wednesday. In it, she distances herself from Joe Biden by endorsing a lower capital gains tax increase. Her proposal attempts to win over the business community and wealthier Americans by only taxing investment income for Americans earning more than a million dollars a year at a rate of 28%, far below the 39.6% proposed by the president.
72: The deaths of the 72 people killed in the Grenfell apartment tower fire in London in 2017 were the result of “incompetence, dishonesty, and greed” on the part of government officials and contractors. That’s according to the official inquiry on the incident, which was released on Wednesday. The fire was the worst in the UK since World War II.
42 million: Lebanon’s former Central Bank Gov. Riad Salamehhas been charged with embezzling as much as $42 million. Salameh, who served in the post from 1993 until 2023, was once hailed as a hero for righting the country’s finances after 15 years of civil war, but with Lebanon mired in a deep financial crisis, he resigned last year under suspicion of malfeasance. He was arrested earlier this week.
225,000: About 225,000 people in Brazil who rely on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service are about to lose access to X. That’s because Starlink has reversed course, agreeing now to comply with a Brazilian government order to block the social media platform amid a larger clash with the Brazilian government over the site. Brazil’s supreme court says X hasn’t followed local laws that forbid extremism and disinformation, but X says regulators are overreaching and stifling free speech.
12: Heavier cars may feel safer – and for their owners they are – but the bulkiest 1% of passenger vehicles kill 12 additional people in other cars for every occupant life they save. That’s one of many fascinating findings in an extensive Economist study on the effects of increasingly heavy vehicles.Brazil vs. Musk: Now in low Earth orbit
The battle between Brazil and Elon Musk has now reached the stars — or the Starlink, at least — as the billionaire’s satellite internet provider refuses orders from Brazil’s telecom regulator to cut access to X.
The background: Brazil’s Supreme Court last week ordered all internet providers in Latin America’s largest economy to cut access to X amid a broader clash with the company over an order to suspend accounts that the court says spread hate speech and disinformation.
That order came after X racked up some $3 million in related fines, which Brazil has now tried to collect by freezing the local assets of Starlink, a separate company from X.
Starlink says it won’t comply with the order to block X until those assets are unfrozen and has offered Brazilians free internet service while the dispute continues.
Brazil is one of X’s largest markets, with about 40 million monthly users. But both sides have dug in as this becomes a high-profile battle over free speech vs. national sovereignty.
What’s next? It’s hard for the Brazilian government to stop Starlink signals from reaching users, but it could shutter about two dozen ground stations in the country that are part of the company’s network …Hard Numbers: ChatGPTers double, Japan’s AI military, Google’s AI pop-ups, Magic money, Musk vs. Brazil
200 million: OpenAI says it now counts 200 million weekly users of ChatGPT, which has doubled in the past year. It also claims that 92% of Fortune 500 companies use its products for writing, coding, and organizational help.
59 billion: Japan’s military is having a recruitment problem. With only 10,000 of its citizens enlisting this year — half of its target — the government is investing $59 billion, a 7% yearly increase, to add additional capabilities including artificial intelligence. It’s spending $123 million alone on an AI surveillance system for its military bases.
17: A new report from the consultancy Authoritas found that Google is offering its AI Overviews — those pop-up AI-generated answers to users’ Googled questions — on 17% of user queries. The search engine company came under fire for its inaccurate AI-generated responses earlier this year and since then has reportedly reduced the frequency with which its suggested answers pop up.
320 million: The startup Magic, whose AI models generate computer code and automate software, raised $320 million in a funding round from former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, among others. The San Francisco-based firm also announced a partnership with Google to build two new supercomputers on the tech giant’s cloud platform.
24: X is now shut down in Brazil, the escalation of a legal dispute between the company’s owner, Elon Musk, and the country’s top court. Musk has criticized Brazil for requesting the company remove certain accounts. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes on Friday gave Musk 24 hours to name a legal representative in the country or else face a national ban. Musk refused and, in response, posted an AI-generated image of de Moraes behind bars, writing, “One day, @Alexandre, this picture of you in prison will be real. Mark my words.”