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What We’re Watching: Moscow’s muscle flex, Bolsonaro’s return, Lasso losing his grip
Russia nabs US journalist
A Wall Street Journal reporter apprehended by Russia’s notorious Federal Security Bureau in the city of Yekaterinburg Thursday has appeared in court in the Russian capital on espionage charges, which the Journal has dismissed as bogus.
Evan Gershkovich, who works out of the Moscow bureau for the New-York based outlet and earlier this week penned a bombshell feature on how sanctions are hurting the Russian economy, was on a reporting trip when he was seen being escorted into an FSB van in scenes reminiscent of the Soviet era. Indeed, he’s the first US journalist to have been arrested by Russian authorities since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. The Committee to Protect Journalists has demanded his immediate and unconditional release.
The Kremlin claims that the 31-year-old reporter was “collecting state secrets” on behalf of the US government. But many analysts say this is likely an attempt by President Vladimir Putin to flex his muscles and gain some leverage amid reports that Russia is stalling in Ukraine, with one US general claiming that ongoing fighting in Bakhmut is a “slaughter-fest” for Moscow.
Putin may be looking to secure some sort of trade deal with the US, like he did last fall when Washington agreed to swap WNBA star Brittney Griner, held in a Russian prison, for Viktor Bout, a Russian citizen and notorious arms dealer held in US custody since 2008. But Griner was held for the lesser offense of possessing a small amount of weed oil. Espionage is a whole other ballgame.
We’ll also be watching to see whether US media outlets now respond by pulling reporters out of Russia. After all, the US State Department has urged all US citizens to leave the country fearing a situation just like this.
Bolsonaro back in Brazil
Brazil’s far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro ended his self-imposed exile in Florida on Thursday, returning home to lead the opposition against his archenemy, leftist President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. After losing the election to Lula last autumn, he never conceded and skipped town instead of attending the inauguration. Lula was confirmed on New Year’s Day, and a week later Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in the capital in Brazil’s own Jan. 6.
Lula must now decide whether to try to put Bolsonaro behind bars or ban him from politics — both of which could backfire because the former president remains hugely popular among his base. He should know: Lula was imprisoned for corruption in 2018, only to retake the presidency a few years later. Bolsonaro faces a litany of investigations, and while his advisors downplay the risk of him being jailed, the threat of legal action could mobilize his fans.
Bolsonaro’s return comes at a tricky time for Lula. While his approval ratings are higher than Bolsonaro’s, Lula campaigned on eradicating poverty but is struggling to pull the country out of an economic slump. He’s also been tussling with the central bank over high-interest rates, which he says is hurting the poor.
Will Lasso get lassoed?
Ecuador's constitutional court has given the go-ahead for parliament to pursue impeachment proceedings against President Guillermo Lasso over his brother-in-law’s alleged involvement in corruption and drug trafficking. This is only the first step in the process, but once it gets to the legislature, Lasso is in serious trouble: He's widely unpopular, and the opposition likely has enough votes to oust him.
If that happens, there are three possible scenarios. First, the conservative Lasso could step down and call a snap election, with the left-wing party of former President Rafael Correa a clear favorite. The embattled president could also let VP Alfredo Borrero take over, although he’d struggle to finish Lasso's term without making big political concessions and spending money Ecuador can't afford.
But the most likely — and dangerous — option is that Lasso challenges his removal by dissolving parliament before he’s impeached and rules by decree until a fresh election, as the Andean nation's constitution allows him to do. That outcome would trigger "chaos on the streets and maybe even a constitutional crisis," says Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow.
Can Brazil (and Bolsonaro) recover from a crippling year?
Jair Bolsonaro had a Trump-like rise to power to become the president of Brazil, but some of the same attributes that got him elected have contributed to the many economic, political and public health crises plaguing his country. In addition to the COVID pandemic, Brazil is still suffering from the impact of its worst ever recession which began in 2014. Bolsonaro promised to turn that around—but economic growth remains low and unemployment very high. As for the Amazon, its rapid deforestation accounted for one third of the destruction of the world's tropical forests in 2019 alone. Bolsonaro is up for reelection next year, and it's going to be an interesting campaign. The likely challenger is Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is as far left as Bolsonaro is right.
Watch the episode: Brazil on the brink
Can ‘Lula,’ the hero of Brazil’s left, unseat Bolsonaro?
The political legend Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known to all as "Lula," is the likely challenger to Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil's 2022 presidential elections. Lula is an old acquaintance of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil's former president and elder statesman, who discussed Lula's political prospects in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. "I know Lula very well, for a long time. And Lula, from that time on has been convinced he has a destiny to be the leader of the nation, still," said Cardoso. "I don't know now what will occur in the coming elections. He's convinced he will be he again, the candidate."
Watch the episode: Brazil on the brink
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Brazil's awful year: does the buck stop with Bolsonaro?
Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil's former president and elder statesman, spoke frankly with Ian Bremmer about how ill-equipped Brazil's government has been to manage multiple crises. "It's obvious that the government is not managing quite well...by denying truth. It's impossible to deny that the people are dying," Cardoso said in an interview on GZERO World. He also discussed the political division plaguing his country. "I'm more cautious than normal political men are. I have been president, so I know that it's not simple, but it's difficult to explain how it was possible for the president [Bolsonaro] to seem so indifferent with respect to the pandemic."
Watch the episode: Brazil on the brink
Brazil on the brink
Latin America's largest economy has endured years of economic hardship, a barrage of political scandals, and one of the worst pandemic death tolls in the world. So where does Brazil go from here and how much longer can its president hold onto power? Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who remains one of the most influential political figures in the country, joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Brazil's increasingly divided society, the potential fate of its current far-right leader, the prospects of his most likely challenger (known to all as "Lula") the climate crisis in the Amazon, and the country's complicated relationship with China.
A Brazilian hip hop artist who brings his community not just music, but food
An intimate look at a popular Brazilian rapper who has become an unlikely hero for the poorest of the poor in a sprawling community outside of Brasilia, Brazil's capital. Marcos Vinícius de Jesus Morais, aka Japão, has organized an effort to supply poor families with critically needed food and medical equipment, because "they put me in the position where I am. So today I just give them back everything they did for me. You see that today in the capital of Brazil, people are going through this kind of need, it is sad, regrettable, and cruel."
Watch the episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Brazil on the brink
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Podcast: Brazil on the brink: perspective from former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso
Listen: Latin America's largest economy has endured years of economic hardship, a barrage of political scandals, and one of the worst pandemic death tolls in the world. So where does Brazil go from here and how much longer can its president hold onto power? Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who remains one of the most influential political figures in the country, joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Brazil's increasingly divided society, the potential fate of its current far-right leader, the prospects of his most likely challenger (known to all as "Lula") the climate crisis in the Amazon, and the country's complicated relationship with China.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Why Brazil's elder statesman has never met Bolsonaro
Brazil's divisive President Jair Bolsonaro has never reached out to Fernando Henrique Cardoso, his only predecessor to win the presidency in the first round. Why? Well, it takes two to tango — or in this case, samba. Cardoso shares his thoughts on the latest episode of GZERO World, which beings airing on US public television Friday, May 21. Check local listings.