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South Korean president ousted, election looms
South Korea’s Constitutional Court on Friday voted unanimously to oust impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol over his decision to declare martial law in December. Supporters of Yoon who gathered near the presidential residence in Seoul reportedly cried out in disappointment as the court’s 8-0 decision was announced. Others cheered the ruling. The center-right leader is now the second South Korean president to be ousted.
Reality hits on new tariffs, but Trump says it’s ‘going very well’
Stocks have plummeted, layoffs have begun, and confusion has metastasized about the bizarre method the United States used to calculate its tariff formula. But Donald Trump says it’s “going very well."
Budget clash puts South African government on brink of collapse
The second largest party in South Africa’s coalition, the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, launched a legal challenge on Thursday to block a 0.5% VAT increase in the country’s new budget, raising concerns that the fragile government could collapse.
Israel strikes Syria to warn Turkey
As we wrote in February, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has big plans for Syria. Erdogan’s government was a crucial backer of the HTS militia, an Islamist rebel group that ousted longtime Syrian strongman Bashar Assad in December, and it now wants Turkey’s military to take over some air bases on Syrian territory in exchange for Turkish training of Syria’s new army.
Trump's tariffs & the end of globalization
Overnight, the US moved to having the world’s highest tariffs by a long margin. Here is Ian Bremmer's Quick Take on the near and long-term fallout
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budget
Israel Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Itamar Ben Gvir shake hands as the Israeli government approve Netanyahu's proposal to reappoint Itamar Ben-Gvir as minister of National Security, in the Knesset, Israeli parliament in Jerusaelm, March 19, 2025
Israel gets “budget of war” amid new plans for Gaza and West Bank
It also included a series of tax hikes that were heavily criticized by opposition parties. Outside the Knesset, demonstrators protested the government’s failure to secure the release of the remaining 59 Israeli hostages as well asrecent moves by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dismiss the head of Israel’s intelligence agency and its attorney general.
For all the protests, the budget’s passage represents “a significant political win for Netanyahu,” according to Eurasia Group managing director Firas Maksad.
“With greater room to maneuver politically from here on, the big question is if the prime minister will be more flexible on moving towards phase two of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, thereby beginning to bring the conflict with Hamas to close,” Maksad added.
A fund for war? Israel is reportedly preparing amajor ground offensive in Gaza after the end of the recent two-month ceasefire, includingseizing additional territories and potentially occupying the enclave. “If there are not renewed hostage negotiations, then the only alternative left is to resume the fighting,” warned Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council. “And there are serious plans.”
Other plans include creating new settlements on the West Bank. Last week, Israel’s security cabinet greenlit a decision to split off 13 “neighborhoods” of existing West Bank settlements, established decades ago without authorization, from their “mother settlement,” creating independent settlements. The Palestinian Authority condemned the move as well as increased Israeli military operations in the northern West Bank as “an unprecedented escalation in the confiscation of Palestinian lands.”
Tensions in the West Bank have been escalating for months. On Monday, the Oscar-winning Palestinian director of “No Other Land,” Hamdan Ballal, was detained by Israeli forces on accusations of “rock throwing,” which he denied, after being attacked by settlers in the village of Susya. Ballal was released Tuesday and said he was beaten and blindfolded for 24 hours while in custody, and the Israeli military has not responded to the allegation.
FILE PHOTO: Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland speaks during a news conference at the Canadian Embassy in Washington D.C., U.S. June 13, 2019.
Freeland to miss her target, thanks to Trudeau
Canadian Finance Minister Chyrstia Freeland is expected to reveal Monday that she has missed the $40.1 billion deficit target that she set for herself last year, the latest in a long string of fiscal targets Justin Trudeau’s government has missed over the years.
Freeland said Tuesday she expects the fall economic statement, which she will present on Dec. 16, will show a declining debt-to-GDP ratio, but she did not mention the deficit target. “I chose my words with care because it is important to be clear with Canadians. It is important to be clear with capital markets.”
The missed target will make Freeland a target of criticism by the business community and Conservatives.
According to a report in The Globe and Mail, Freeland and Trudeau are at odds over spending. Her office and nonpartisan Finance Department officials are unhappy about the government’s $6.28-billion plan for a holiday sales-tax break and $250 checks for people earning up to $150,000.
The gimmicky measures – which have not moved the polls for the Liberals – seem to have made it impossible for Freeland to hit her target.
The tension between Freeland and Trudeau revives questions about her future in the government. Trudeau brought Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, not her, to Mar-A-Lago last month, and the Globe reported Thursday that Trudeau is again trying to recruitMark Carney, presumably to take her job.Correction: This post originally referred to Dominic LeBlanc as the transport minister.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves following the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Nov. 27, 2024.
French government barrels toward a brick wall
To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.
Expect Barnier’s government to collapse on Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz attend the 2024 budget debate session of the German lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, in Berlin, Germany, earlier this year.
Will Germany’s ruling coalition survive the winter?
An uncomfortable dynamic: Scholz held a summit on Tuesday to discuss Germany’s economic woes but didn’t even invite his finance minister, Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats, who decided to schedule a competing economic summit the same day.
“The three-party coalition is plagued by a lack of internal discipline, weak leadership by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, record-low approval ratings, and deteriorating trust between its leading figures,” says Jan Techau, a Berlin-based Europe expert at Eurasia Group.
Beyond the economic crisis, issues ranging from the rise of the far-right AfD to growing geopolitical pressures brought on by the war in Ukraine and a more assertive China have placed the German government in “a perfect storm situation,” says Techau.
Germany’s GDP grew in the third quarter, helping it avoid a recession, which Economy Minister Robert Habeck on Wednesday said offers a “ray of hope.”
But there are still concerns that the coalition could soon collapse, which would pave the way for snap elections in the spring. While the probability of an early vote has gone up, Techau says it’s still more likely that the government will complete its full term.
The coalition is held together by the “weakness” of the ruling parties and the fact that “early elections are likely to produce disastrous results for all three of them,” adds Techau.
The next general elections aren’t scheduled until Sept. 2025. We’ll be watching to see whether the German government can keep it together in the meantime.
FILE PHOTO: A placard reads, "deport AFD now", during nationwide protests against racism and plans of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) party to deport foreigners, in Bonn, Germany, January 21, 2024.
Can Germany defund its own far-right?
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court ruled Tuesday that the small far-right Die Heimat party may not receive funding from the federal government because of its anti-democratic and ethno-nationalist goals. Die Heimat isn’t a big player in German politics, but the Alternative für Deutschland is. And as AfD is drawing the support of about 23% of Germans, according to recent polls, centrist parties are eyeing the same pathway to box them out financially.
The AfD has long taken anti-immigration stances, but some senior members may have put the party at risk by meeting with neo-Nazis last year to discuss plans for an extreme program to deport immigrants by the millions, including naturalized citizens. Hundreds of thousands of Germans took to the streets to protest, but calls to ban the party outright are likely to fail due to the high standards German courts impose on such a drastic move. Instead, the recent finding against Die Heimat is fueling calls for a similar motion against AfD, which stands to lose over $10 million in annual public funding.
It’s not all about morality, though. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government faces a bruising negotiation over the 2025 budget, with a sluggish economy necessitating major cuts. The AfD could use the cuts as a populist cudgel to hammer the incumbent coalition in elections in the states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg scheduled for September. Scholz’s government is struggling in the three eastern states — but if AfD finds itself light on funds, he might avoid the worst outcomes.U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) arrives to deliver a statement on allegations surrounding U.S. President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, as the House of Representatives returns from its summer break facing a looming deadline to avoid a government shutdown while spending talks continue on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 12, 2023.
Will the House GOP’s Biden impeachment probe backfire?
After much back-and-forth in recent months, embattled House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has officially launched an impeachment inquiry against US President Joe Biden.
McCarthy says that the inquiry has merit, based on months of preliminary investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings – specifically the global financial exploits of Hunter Biden, the president’s son. Democrats, for their part, say this is a GOP political vendetta in response to the impeachments of Donald Trump, and that Biden himself has committed no impeachable high crimes or misdemeanors.
Still, launching an official inquiry gives relevant congressional committees broad powers to request documents and testimonies – a boon for House Republicans who have already been battling for greater access to Biden family financial records.
Why now? McCarthy is likely trying to throw a bone to far-right House Republicans, known as the Freedom Caucus, who despise the speaker and are threatening to remove him over a host of thorny policy disputes. Most notably, the tear-it-all-down caucus is mad at McCarthy for his apparent willingness to work with the White House to continue to fund the government at current levels through the end of the year. Failure to do so could result in a government shutdown after Sept. 30.
Impeachment is risky for McCarthy and for the GOP. House Republicans in purple districts (many that Biden won in 2020) say this is not a popular move with their voters and that it could backfire in 2024, when House Republicans will have a very narrow majority to defend.
But the Freedom Caucus is out for blood. Prominent McCarthy critic Rep. Matt Gaetz has already called the impeachment probe a mere “baby step.”
US summer travel may be easier than you think, says Pete Buttigieg
Memorial Day weekend signals that the unofficial start of the summer travel season is upon us. And if last year’s travel woes were any indication (paging: Southwest Airlines), we can expect long lines at TSA, full planes stranded on the tarmac, and lots and lots of cancellations. But, according to US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, things are not as dire as they may seem.
“The good news is that after a very disruptive year last year in terms of the struggles that the airlines had, things are catching up this year. In 2023, the preliminary data show cancellation rates under 2%.” In an extensive interview with Ian Bremmer for this week’s GZERO World. Secretary Buttigieg pointed the finger at airline companies for many of the travel hiccups that made news last year. Issues like staffing and air traffic control are not the main cause, not even close to being the main cause, of flight cancellations and delays. We've been working with the airlines, pressing the airlines, and they have delivered a lot of improvements with what's under their control.”
And, it turns out, quite a bit is under airlines’ control, including that the law requires they reimburse passengers for canceled flights. If that’s news to you, you’re not alone.
Watch the full episode of GZERO world: The road to repair: Pete Buttigieg & crumbling US infrastructure
Key Japanese lawmaker says third extra budget may not be last
The openness to more spending underscores concerns that rising waves of the virus could derail Japan's recovery.