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A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.

REUTERS/Norlys Perez

HARD NUMBERS: China becomes top Cuba benefactor, Canada backs down, & More

55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.

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Alberta sovereigntists and supporters gather outside the Alberta Legislature on May 3, 2025.

Artur Widak via Reuters Connect

What We’re Watching: Separatists go bust, Canada goes social, US readies tax retaliation

Alberta separatists underwhelm in local election

Alberta’s separatist movement came up short in a bellwether by-election in rural Calgary on Monday, winning a disappointing 19% of the vote in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. Cameron Davies, leader of the separatist Alberta Republican Party, came in third, behind the governing United Conservative Party and the left-leaning New Democratic Party. Although a referendum on separatism is still in the cards, the weak showing in what was thought to be prime separatist territory suggests the movement may have little steam after all.

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A Canadian border services superintendent, stands at the Canada Border Service Agency (CBSA) border crossing with the United States in Stanstead, Quebec, Canada

REUTERS

Hard Numbers: Canada tracks illegal Iranians, US slashes pro-democracy programs, small town sees last graduate, bear goes to the dentist

115: Canada’s border agency has opened at least 115 investigations into how suspected agents of Iran were able to enter Canada despite being banned from the country since 2022. Three individuals have been given deportation orders, and another has already been removed from the country.

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The Trump effect on Canada’s US-bound exports

The US-Canada relationship has hit new lows since US President Donald Trump took office in January. In the early weeks of his presidency, he not only threatened to annex Canada, but Trump also imposed hefty tariffs on key Canadian exports, including auto parts and metals, triggering a trade war across one of the most commercially integrated borders in the world. As a result, Canada’s exports to the US have plummeted by nearly 20% since Trump took office.

Here’s a look at how Canada’s southbound exports have evolved over the past decade.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following the issuance of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 18, 2025

REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt

Hard Numbers: Fed holds interest rates, Canada’s population stays flat, LNG plant to open in B.C., US nabs suspects in “largest jewelry heist”

4: The US Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady for the fourth time in a row, awaiting more data on the economic impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Trump himself this week blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell as “a stupid person, frankly” for not resuming the rate cuts that began last fall.

0%: Canada recorded a population growth of 0% in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest mark since 2020. This is the sixth consecutive quarter where population growth has slowed, and it comes after the federal government voted to reduce immigration levels late last year.

14 million: Canada is set to produce liquified natural gas (LNG) for the first time this weekend when a coastal facility in British Columbia begins operating. While the $40-billion plant will initially operate at just one quarter of its capacity, it is expected to ultimately export 14 million metric tonnes of LNG every year. It is the first North American LNG plant with direct access to the Pacific, meaning it can serve the voracious appetite for LNG in Asia.

$100 million: Seven men were arrested in California for the “largest jewelry heist” in US history, after stealing $100 million dollars worth of gold, gems, and watches from an armored truck near San Francisco in 2022.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks during a meeting of northeastern U.S. Governors and Canadian Premiers, in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., June 16, 2025.

REUTERS/Sophie Park

What we’re watching: The subnational US-Canada relationship, Golden Dome’s leaden weight, MAGA Iran crackup

Premiers meet with governors to shape US-Canada relations

While the national level drama played out between Donald Trump and Mark Carney at the G7 in Kananaskis, a lot of important US-Canada work was going on with far less fanfare in Boston, where five Canadian premiers met with governors and delegations from seven US states. The groups talked trade and tariffs, reflecting a Canadian strategy of working through deep state-level relationships to help manage the broader tensions with Trump and his policies.

The double-price Carney would pay for the Golden Dome

As he left the G7 meeting in Alberta, Donald Trump said the price tag for Canada’s participation in the US Golden Dome missile defense project would come in at a hefty US$71 billion. Trump expects Canada to join.“They want to be a part of it,” he said. But Canadians themselves aren’t so keen. A recent poll found that 63% of respondents do not want Canada to join the shield, meaning Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has expressed openness to the idea, is caught between placating Trump or siding with the skeptical majority of his constituents.

MAGA-splits over US intervention in Iran

As the world waits to see if the US will join Israel in attacking Iran – and potentially pressing for regime change – the MAGA-Republican coalition is divided. Hardcore America First voices like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Steve Bannon, and Tucker Carlson say no way, while most establishment Republicans and Democrats are still in favor. A new poll finds that while nearly two-thirds of Americans would view a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to the US, a slim majority of Republicans want nothing to do with Israel’s current efforts to destroy Iran’s nuclear program militarily. Overall, 56% of those polled said they favor negotiations to rid Iran of nuclear weapons.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump leave after a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 16, 2025.

REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett/Pool

Was the G7 a success for host Canada? Let’s take a look!

The G7 meeting this week was always going to be a tricky one. Set against the backdrop of the picturesque mountains of the Kananaskis Range, the meeting also took place amid a much uglier global tableau of trade wars between the world’s largest economies, and ongoing actual wars between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas and, on the summit’s eve, Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.

All of that was in addition to other long standing agenda items like artificial intelligence, transnational crime, and climate change. And looming over the whole gathering like Mount Galatea itself: the fact that the G7 looks ever more like a G6+1 – with Donald Trump’s US at odds with most of the others on key issues.

So now that it’s over, was it a success for host country Canada and Prime Minister Mark Carney? The report card is mixed. Here are five takeaways that tell the story:

Lapel-level diplomacy: a pin-sized win

It was the lapel pin seen ‘round the world, to paraphrase former Canadian Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole. Okay, seen ‘round Canada, at least. Arriving at the G7, Donald Trump sported a pin featuring the Canada and US flags intertwined. Although Trump was sporting a US flag pin above that, the chattering classes in Canada chose to read the hardware as a good sign that maybe the two countries are ready to go steady again after all. These days you take the wins you can get.

Trade deal pinky promise: medium-sized win with potential to upsize to large

Maybe the pin worked a little magic. After an hour-plus bilateral talk on Monday, Mark Carney announced that he and Trump had agreed to ink a trade deal within 30 days. Washington is reportedly still pressuring Canada over its dairy tariffs and digital services taxes. The president reaffirmed that he’s “a tariff person” with “a different concept” of trade from Carney, but also noted the prime minister's “more complex idea” was nonetheless “very good.”

Trump was mostly contained: big win (accomplished the near-impossible)

Avoiding any big dustup with Trump was an important goal, and that seemed to go pretty well. Despite an opening harangue from Trump about why Russia should be back in the group – Moscow was booted over its 2014 annexation of Crimea – Carney did his best, buttering up the president at a joint presser, saying “The G7 is nothing without U.S. leadership.”

It’s true that Trump left early, but it was for a good reason – to address the Israel-Iran crisis – and with no animosity. That’s an improvement from the last time Trump left a Canadian G7 meeting, splitting from at Charlevoix, Quebec in 2018 with a tweet that then-prime minister Justin Trudeau was “Very dishonest & weak.” Carney has a very different – and much better – relationship with the US president. That by itself is a W.

Resetting relations with India: a win for some a capitulation for others

Mark Carney caught a lot of flack, including protests, for inviting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 meeting in the hopes of resetting Canada’s relationship with India. It was a bold move considering Canada’s intelligence agency warned just last Friday that India actively interferes in Canada’s political affairs and was involved in the 2023 murder of a Sikh Canadian in British Columbia. Nonetheless, the countries agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, including naming high commissioners, and talked about “opportunities to deepen engagement in areas such as technology, the digital transition, food security, and critical minerals.”

Working together as a group: low-hanging fruit, but little progress on the hard questions

The latter hours of the meeting produced several joint statements: members agreed on a series of measures to adopt and support artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. They also agreed to develop a critical minerals action plan, to adopt a wildfire charter, to counter migrant smuggling, and to condemn transnational repression.

But they couldn’t agree on a statement about Russia and Ukraine because of American efforts to soften the language, and had little to say on the Israel-Iran conflict beyond calling for de-escalation and re-affirming that the Iranian government mustn’t develop nuclear weapons.

Final verdict: beautiful setting, middling progress, no disasters. Overall, a qualified win for Carney, but only if he can keep the momentum up in areas that matter to Canadians.

Graphic Truth: G7 vs BRICS, who has more economic clout?

The G7 countries – the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan – will convene this weekend in Kananaskis, a rural town in the mountains of Alberta, Canada. High on the meeting’s agenda are tariffs, artificial intelligence, and international security, with special focus on Russian sanctions and Israel’s recent attacks on Iran.

While the G7 was originally formed as an informal grouping of the world’s wealthiest democracies, the BRICS – composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – have sought to challenge their dominance of the global agenda.

Here’s a look at how the share of the global economy held by G7 and BRICS nations has evolved over time.

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