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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then-US President Donald Trumpshake hands before a meeting at Hyderabad House in Delhi, India, on Feb. 25, 2020.
India hopes Trump will lean its way
Last month, the Trudeau government expelled Indian diplomats after revealing allegations of assassination plots that Canadian officials linked to the highest levels of the Indian government. India denies the allegations and complains bitterly about a lack of security cooperation in dealing with what it sees as threats from Canadian Sikhs who are seeking an independent homeland in India.
On Wednesday, Canadian police confirmed that last month they arrested a man India calls a terrorist on gun charges.
The hostility between Canadian Sikhs and Hindus turned violent in the suburban Toronto community of Brampton earlier this month, leading to an angry denunciation from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India is now hoping Modi’s friend Trump will put Trudeau in his place and resolve the impasse in India’s favor.
But there is an active US prosecution of an Indian intelligence official over a plot to kill Sikh activists in both Canada and the United States. Trump is unlikely to turn a blind eye to that, says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security.
“Anyone who is looking for a foothold to do foreign interference that involves violence on citizens of a country on that country’s soil should be deterred strongly by the United States, particularly under Trump,” she says. “He is strong on national security, and he is not going to tolerate murder-for-hire plots on American soil.”
On the other hand, Trump tends to be motivated by transactional concerns, and India has a lot of leverage in the global chess match between China and the United States.
Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., speaks during Day 3 of the 2024 Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI, on July 17, 2024.
Trump picks Trudeau critics for Cabinet
President Donald Trump’s credulity-straining Cabinet picks (Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard, for example) are getting all the attention, but anyone interested in the relationship between Canada and the United States will want to know that two of his lower-profile nominees are no fans of the Canadian prime minister.
Trump’s next national security advisor, Rep. Michael Waltz, has a long track record of critical public comments about Justin Trudeau, suggesting he is weak on China and that Canadians should get rid of him.
Waltz represents Florida’s 6th District in the House of Representatives, which includes Daytona Beach, a frequent destination for Canadian sunseekers, which may explain his interest in Canadian politics.
In May, Waltz shared a post from Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre: “This guy is going to send Trudeau packing in 2025 (finally) and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in.”
Waltz’s dim view of the Trudeau government may strain security cooperation between the two countries, but Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, is more likely to be front and center at the conflict point.
Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, will be in charge of implementing Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented foreigners. Homan is from West Carthage, NY, just south of the northern border, which he sees as a threat because of irregular crossings.
On Monday, he told a local TV station there that he intends to make it harder for illegal immigrants to get into the United States, promising to arrest any who try.
“We’re gonna lock you up,” he said. “So more agents, we’ll end catch and release, and President Trump will need to work with Prime MinisterJustin Trudeau and say, ‘look, you need to enforce the immigration laws you have because this is a gateway to the US.’”
Homan is not a Trudeau fan. “Find a better man,” he said in February. “He’s terrible."
Trump’s chosen deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, meanwhile, has called Canada “increasingly authoritarian and despotic” and referred to the PM as “far-left Trudeau.”
The Canadians are bracing for the impact of Trump, beefing up surveillance aimed at preventing crossings in the other direction. The likely result is a more heavily policed frontier, which could slow the trade that both sides rely on.
Graphic Truth: Trump tariffs could cook Canada
It’s not yet clear how he will follow through with that threat – mainstream economists have warned of its inflationary effects – but the president-elect and top advisers, including his former trade chiefRobert Lighthizer, are working hard on it as Trump prepares to take office in January.
What effect would a blanket tariff have on Canada, whose economy is tightly integrated with the US? Brace yourself. A recent report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimated that a permanent 10% US tariff on Canada would cause US imports to fall by 10%, and knock as much as 5% off of Canada’s GDP.
Here’s a look at just how dependent Canada’s economy is on the US, and the key export categories.
House of Commons in the Canadian Parliament building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Green fund controversy halts government business in Ottawa
The government has provided initial documents on the program, but the Conservatives want more handed over to the Commons so they can share them with federal police. The government argues sharing more documents would be illegal and prefers that the matter be studied by a House committee.
Why it matters? Since the Conservative demand falls under parliamentary privilege, most House business is on hold until it’s resolved. But the government can’t end the stalemate without the support of at least one other opposition party, the NDP or Bloc Quebecois, to join them in ending the showdown. But neither wants to do so.
The Conservatives are happy to let the scandal drag on, delaying the government’s agenda and painting them as crooked ahead of a federal election that’s due by October 2025. The showdown indicates an increasingly dysfunctional legislature and weak government, and it suggests that the coming months won’t be as productive as the Liberals would hope – and the country would expect.
Graphic Truth: Foreign-born populations in the US and Canada
The foreign-born populations in the US and Canada have been steadily rising for decades. Both are countries of immigrants, with millions upon millions arriving on their shores from distant lands over the centuries, and this is ingrained into their national identities. But polling shows that in recent years a majority of Americans and Canadians want to see less immigration — including legal immigration.
Politicians have taken notice. President-elect Donald Trump has made curbing immigration a central aspect of his platform and has pledged to conduct mass deportations of undocumented immigrants once he takes office.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also recently took steps to reduce the number of new immigrants coming into Canada. “Immigration is essential for Canada’s future, but it must be controlled and it must be sustainable,” Trudeau said late last month.
Are these trends driven by xenophobia or a product of people feeling financially vulnerable and concerned that more immigrants will place strains on the economy? Or is it both? We would love to hear your thoughts!
Trump 2.0 is set to upend US-Canada relations
Donald Trump is returning to the White House. Winning the presidency, along with control of the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives, means Republicans have a long runway for policy reform — which is making Canada nervous as the Trudeau government stares down possible challenges from the next administration on trade, defense, immigration, and more.
Trump’s tariff threat looms large
Sitting atop Canada’s pile of worries is Trump’s threat to impose a minimum 10% tariff — and possibly as high as 20% — across the board on US imports, which would drive consumer prices higher in the US and could cost Canadian trade partners billions. Canada will try to finagle an exemption, but there is no guarantee it’ll succeed.
If slapped with tariffs, Canada may be forced to retaliate with its own protectionist measures, ensuring a trade war. Roughly CA$3.6 billion in goods move across the border daily, and nearly 80% of Canada’s exports go stateside.
But tariffs aren’t the only trade concern. Trump, who views trade agreements through the lens of zero-sum power politics, says he will (once again) negotiate the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, which comes up for review in 2026. During his first term, the Republican leader replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement with USMCA, which caused considerable headaches for the Trudeau government. Canada made concessions during the renegotiation, including increased market access for the US to Canadian dairy and stricter rules of origin for automobiles — criteria to determine if enough North American production has gone into a vehicle to grant it preferential tariff treatment. During the process, Trump called Justin Trudeau “two-faced” and a “far-left lunatic.”
Pressure to spend, border woes, freshwater demands — oh my!
Canada will also face growing pressure from the Trump administration to increase its defense spending and NATO commitments.
Days ago, former US Ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft gave a sense of just how urgent the spending boost might have to be. This summer, Canada released a plan to grow its share of defense spending to the NATO target of 2% of GDP by 2032. Craft says that’s not fast enough. But to hit that target, Canada would have to doubleits defense spending in the next seven to eight years, which might be tricky if the country is hurting from a trade war with its biggest trading partner.
During the election, Trump also said he would begin a program of mass deportations. The costly idea is a stretch, but as the CBC’s Evan Dyer argued in July, even the notion of such a program could cause problems for Canada, with concerned migrants in the US moving north ahead of a possible deportation blitz.
During the first Trump administration, and into the Biden administration, a growing number of irregular crossings were a challenge, leading to a renegotiated border deal in 2023, which tightened border security.
Trump has also talked about going after Canadian freshwater to solve US water shortages. Canada is one of the world’s largest sources of freshwater — with roughly 20% of the global total. Trump has floated the idea of diverting Canadian water to the US, particularly to drought-prone California.
The president-elect recently touted the idea on Joe Rogan’s podcast, and in September, he said British Columbia has “essentially a very large faucet” that could be turned on “one day” to divert water flows south to California. But there isn’t that much spare water to divert, and the flows are already governed by the Columbia River Treaty — another deal that might be up for (further) review.
All public smiles and reassurances, for now
The first Trump administration was rough for Canada, and the Trump-Trudeau relationship was … not warm. In January, Trudeau warned that a second Trump presidency would be “a step back” for Canada. “It wasn’t easy the first time, and if there is a second time, it won’t be easy either,” the prime minister said.
Indeed it won’t. Some in Canada may be hoping the pain won’t arrive until the 2026 free trade renegotiations, but that’s probably wishful thinking.
“The headaches may come much sooner than the USMCA negotiations," says Gerry Butts, vice chairman and senior adviser at Eurasia Group. “Trump’s immigration and tariff policies will put pressure on an already strained Canadian consensus about immigration and cause swift damage to the economy.”
Nonetheless, Trudeau was quick to congratulate Trump on his second win, emphasizing that the relationship between the US and Canada is “the envy of the world,” and saying, perhaps more in hope than in anticipation, that he knows he and Trump “will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations.”
Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly noted that Canada has been preparing for either a Democrat or Republican “for months” through networks in the US and globally. She was joined by several Cabinet ministers who at least feigned hope that things would work out given the deep ties between the two countries.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, isn’t convinced the rosy picture the Canadian government is painting reflects reality. “Trump doesn’t care about historic ties; he couldn’t care less.”
Thompson says the relationship between the US and Canada is now as fraught as it has been in a century. But, he notes, Canada is still better off vis-à-vis the US than every other country in the world, which is something at least.
How to manage a forever crisis
The challenge for Canada now is navigating the second Trump administration, particularly as the Trudeau government, down in the polls, faces its own election a year from now — if not sooner.
Canadians prefer the Conservative Party leader over Trudeau when it comes to handling Trump, but for now, the job is Trudeau’s. The plan this time seems to be similar to last time: Rather than going all-in on the White House itself, Canada will work with the Trump administration by lobbying statehouses and governors, especially along the border states, along with Capitol Hill and industry. The government has also reestablished its Cabinet committee on US-Canada relations, chaired by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Thompson says Canada has an advantage in managing the Trump administration because of the country’s deep familiarity with the US and close connections nationally and at the state level. But history and expertise aside, there’s no guarantee there won’t be challenges and pain for Canada — especially on trade and defense — despite the rhetoric.
“It’s really hard to see how this is not more challenging than at any other time,” Thompson says. “I think that for the next four years, we can expect that any grievance or opportunity to take a hard line to gain something that presents itself, that’s the line the Trump administration will take.”
David Eby gestures as he addresses supporters at the B.C. NDP provincial election night headquarters in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada October 19, 2024.
Incumbents hang on in provincial elections
Incumbents have lost ground but held onto power in elections in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
British Columbians learned Monday that the left-leaning New Democrats would likely form a majority government, after 10 days of uncertainty while the ballots were counted. On election night, the NDP was ahead of the Conservatives by one seat, but two of the ridings were within the 100-vote margin that required judicial recounts. After the counting was done, the NDP was two seats ahead. Although some online trolls spread falsehoods about wrongdoing, the Conservatives acknowledged that the NDP had won.
In Saskatchewan on Tuesday morning, after a night of ballot counting, Saskatchewan voters learned that the incumbent, right-leaning Saskatchewan Party had won a smaller majority.
As in B.C., voters gave the incumbents a haircut, but they hung on.
Last week, the New Brunswick Liberals defeated an unpopular Progressive Conservative government, electing that province’s first female premier in spite of the fact that the federal Liberal party is polling terribly.
In Nova Scotia, the middle-of-the-road incumbent Progressive Conservatives called a snap election on Sunday, hoping to win a stronger majority government, which the polls suggest they will do.
The Ontario Progressive Conservatives, who have just sent $200 checks to everyone in the province, are expected to go next, like their Nova Scotian colleagues, seeking to get out ahead of a possible federal election, which might change the political climate
Overall, the results suggest the anti-incumbent mood linked to the cost-of-living crisis may be ebbing somewhat as the economy improves.
Lissa Smith poses with lawn signs in support of Kamala Harris, and a pillow someone threw in her yard after several signs, previously displayed on her lawn, were taken outside her home in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Oct. 27, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Yard sign thefts rise in US, Canada’s defense pledges meet spending limit targets, Cocaine grapes cross border, Musk skips sweepstakes hearing, Who supports Trump’s tariff proposal?
10: About 10% of Americans put up signs supporting a presidential candidate on their property, according to one expert’s estimate. And with polarization and enmity between supporters of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris reaching fever pitch on the eve of the vote, people are turning to high-tech solutions such as cameras and tracking devices to prevent rising incidents of theft and vandalism of the signs.
2: To meet its stated goal of bringing defense spending up to 2% of GDP, Canada will have to nearly double its defense spending by 2033. But doing so could run afoul of new budget targets that aim to bind the government to reduce the national deficit-to-GDP ratio to below 1% within three years.
600: A case of vines and lines, you might say. Canadian authorities this month seized more than 600 kilograms of cocaine stashed in a shipment of grapes. The interdiction occurred earlier this month at the Ambassador Bridge, which links Windsor to Detroit. That amount of product would fetch more than $13 million on the streets.
1 million: Elon Muskskipped a hearing on Thursday about the legality of the sweepstakes in which he awards $1 million each day to someone who signs his online free speech and gun-rights petition. The Justice Department recently sent a letter to the billionaire warning him that giveaways like this might violate election laws. The case will now move to a federal court.
33: A new poll shows 33% percent of Americans support Donald Trump’s proposal to impose a 20% tariff on all imports, while 43% are opposed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, two-thirds of Trump voters like the idea, compared to barely one in 10 Harris supporters. When asked about specific countries, Canada comes out looking pretty good: Just 16% of Trump voters and 6% of Harris voters want to put tariffs on their northern neighbors.