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US-Canada trade war helps Mark Carney's election prospects
With recent tensions between Zelensky and Washington, how likely are the Saudi-hosted peace talks to yield real progress?
Well, we'll find out real soon. Zelensky has certainly made his efforts to make nice on the critical minerals deal, on apologizing to the Trump White House for a meeting that frankly he has very little to apologize for, and that certainly has helped with getting this engagement going. Also, he's not attending personally, rather, his key envoys and advisors meeting with Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Adviser Waltz. I suspect that the meetings will end up being just fine, but they are unlikely to lead to a ceasefire because what the Ukrainians are prepared to accept, the Russians are not close to accepting. So either Trump is going to have to be willing to take some time, bring it to the Russians and see that the Russians are not playing full ball, or he's going to have to throw the Ukrainians under the bus more and make greater demands that they're not prepared to accept. I don't think either of those things are likely to happen today, but that's I think, the direction of travel.
Are we on the cusp of a nuclear proliferation era as Poland and Germany talk of acquiring nuclear weapons?
Germany's talking more about sharing in the nuclear umbrella with France. Poland's talking about getting its own. These things are all harder. They will take longer than these countries have. It's not like France's nuclear umbrella is deep or easily extendable. In order to have anyone believe credibly that a French deterrent would apply to other countries, a lot of things have to happen in terms of coordination and infrastructure and building up those capabilities that will take frankly years. So, I think it's important that these conversations are happening. I think that many countries around the world are moving towards establishing their own nuclear capabilities in, around, the Middle East. I can certainly see over time as Iran gets closer, the Saudis thinking about it, the Turks thinking about it, in Asia, South Korea and Japan. In Europe, a number of countries needing to have collective security because they don't feel like the Americans can provide for them. But I don't think those things are happening overnight. The global order is changing. It is really past the tipping point, but these things are slow moving processes.
Does Justin Trudeau's replacement, Mark Carney, have a shot of winning Canada's general election?
Certainly does, and three months ago would've had no shot at all. There's been an extraordinary bounce back for the Liberal Party, in part because they're now represented by someone that is not an incumbent. Think about what would've happened in the US if it hadn't been Biden or Kamala Harris, but had been an outsider after general primary, better shot of winning. That's exactly what the Canadians have now done. Trudeau forced down, Chrystia Freeland, his deputy prime minister, getting 8% in the Liberal caucus vote, and Carney getting almost 86%. So he's a centrist. He's in much better position to give a serious run against Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives. The big question is how is Trump going to respond? Because on the one hand, it's very easy for Trump to now say, "Trudeau's gone because of me, and I'm now willing to work with somebody who is more reasonable," and the markets would certainly appreciate that. On the other hand, short of him doing that, and I think it's unlikely that he's going to reach out and extend a hand to the Canadians, then Trump beating on Canada more gives Carney a better shot of winning because he's the guy that can manage an economic crisis and also because the Canadians are so united in their anger with the United States, kind of like Mexico is right now, kind of like a number of European countries are right now. So Trump is definitely a uniter, just not inside the US, more inside other countries.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, is seen here officially announcing his bid for the federal Liberal Party leadership at Laurier Heights Community League in Edmonton, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025.
Is Canada set for a snap election?
When was the vote supposed to happen? Canadian law requires that an election be held by Oct. 25, 2025. Federal elections last between 37 and 51 days and must be held on a Monday, so a March 10 call would mean a vote on April 21. Opposition parties are already planning to bring nonconfidence motions when Parliament reconvenes on March 24 to oust the minority government and force an early vote.
Why would Liberals call an early election? The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, and talk of Canada as the 51st state have changed the political conversation. The ballot question has shifted from the government’s economic record to who can best take on Trump.
As a result, the Liberals’ poll numbers have risen dramatically. If Carney were leader, they would be tied withPierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, according to a new Leger survey. Since the opposition wants to force a vote anyway, there is arguably little to gain by waiting.
But it’s not a done deal. Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland says she would not hold an early election, citing the fact that, unlike Carney, she has a seat in Parliament and “would have the right to stand up in the House of Commons and to represent the government.” The timing could hinge on who wins the leadership – and where polls go between now and then.
Biden's UN speech avoids China mention; US lifts travel restrictions
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at US President Biden's UN General Assembly speech, eased US travel restrictions, and Canadian PM Trudeau's election gamble.
How did President Biden's first address to the United Nations General Assembly live go?
It was okay. I thought it was very notable that China was not directly mentioned at all. So my mother used to say, if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything. Did say that the US didn't want to be in a "Cold War". That's notable, because a lot of people out there are pushing in that direction in the US and in China. Certainly it was all about multilateral leadership. The Americans want to do more. We want collective leadership. We care about values. We care about democracy, but increasingly not seen as credible by a number of Europeans, as well as by the developing world, particularly when it comes to Afghanistan, COVID, and climate. Can't just say the words, have to have a pathway to get there. It's getting more challenging for the Americans. This is a tough UNGA meeting.
The US is to lift pandemic travel restrictions. What will happen after that?
Well, thank God we're finally doing that. In November, if you're vaccinated, you can come to the United States. It's like 550 days that the Europeans weren't allowed to come to the US. And I understood why we put that in place at the beginning, but with sort of COVID cases expanding directly in the United States and people getting vaccinated all over the place, we need to be able to travel again. It's important. And frankly, it was the Paris dust-up and the withdrawal, or the recall of the ambassador that got the Americans to move more quickly. So thanks to Paris for that. Usually this stuff is just symbolic.
Did Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's election gamble pay off?
Well, sort of. I mean in the sense that he had an election and he got the same exact result that they had before, minority government does extend his term. So that's useful from his perspective. They spent/wasted 600 million Canadian dollars on it, which is nothing compared to the United States. In Canada, that's considered to be kind of crying foul. A lot of people didn't want the election. And I don't think policies are going to change one bit, but I do applaud the Canadians for having an election where nothing happened. If only that could happen in the United States.
Testing Trudeau's star power
On Monday, Canada's liberal hunk of a PM heads into early elections that no one seems to have wanted... except for him.
When Justin Trudeau announced the move back on August 15, many people questioned the wisdom of holding a national election amid the economic and public health upheavals of the pandemic. "Read the room, Justin," was a common quip, with many saying the early vote was irresponsible from a public health perspective.
So, just days out from the election, how are things looking for (the other) JT, and how — and why — did we get here?
Why did Trudeau cut short his second term? It would have seemed safer for Trudeau to wait until his term ends in 2023, giving the economy time to recover, and Canadians time to settle into post-pandemic life. When asked about his unexpected announcement last month, Trudeau offered a vague answer about the ongoing COVID response and recovery: "The government and indeed Parliament needs an opportunity to get a mandate from Canadians."
But many observers say that the early vote was a ploy for Trudeau to capitalize on strong polling amid a much-improved vaccine drive in the summer, so he could rid himself of the hassles of minority governments that make it harder to get stuff done, like expanding the social safety net with initiatives like the Liberals' subsidized childcare program. (Trudeau's Liberal party currently holds 155 out of 337 seats in the House of Commons.)
But there's growing consensus that the political wunderkind may have misjudged the collective mood. COVID has been rough for many Canadians; the services industry has shed jobs, exacerbating unemployment, while businesses dependent on cross-border travel are hurting from the US-Canada land border closure.
The last thing many Canadians wanted was a costly and emotionally-draining snap election focused on personalities. The PM is now neck-and-neck in the polls with the Conservative Party's Erin O'Toole, with both polling at around 31 percent. When Trudeau announced the vote on August 15, the Liberals were in the lead with a 54 percent chance of forming a majority government. But now he might lose the race.
Who's Trudeau up against? A former officer in the Canadian air force and corporate lawyer, O'Toole entered the political fray in 2012, and has since served an eight-year stint in the House of Commons, as well as a cabinet post as veterans affairs minister.
More recently, the conservative stalwart has shown a knack for adaptability, deeming that a middle-of-the-road approach was the best way to appeal to undecided (and unmotivated) centrists whose votes could prove decisive on election day.
As a result, O'Toole has challenged views held by many in his own party on abortion, calling himself a "pro-choice leader," and recently said that he would maintain the PM's ban on assault weapons (though he previously flip-flopped on this issue during the campaign). Moreover, in a sign of his attempt to broaden his party's appeal, O'Toole dropped his Trumpian 2020 slogan —"Take Back Canada" — in favor of "We Have a Plan," an optimistic rallying cry that has shades of Elizabeth Warren.
On pandemic stimulus, meanwhile, O'Toole said he would continue to dole out financial support, but would mostly end the scheme by the end of his first year. O'Toole's self-described fiscally-responsible recovery plan contrasts with Trudeau's policy of long-term big spending to rev up the economy.
This all poses a key question: What happens when you call an election that the people simply don't want? Chiefly, you run the risk that many voters you need to close the gap in a tight race won't show up. After six years in office, Trudeau's net approval rating currently hovers at -2 percent. This race has now become less about his parliamentary majority than about his political survival.