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canadian-election
Canadian PM Mark Carney
Canadian PM set to call election
Until January, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives had maintained a two-year lead in opinion polls, which ran as high as 25% in December. But the resignation in January of unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, coupled with the return to power of US President Donald Trump, upended the race. It allowed new leader Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, to capitalize on his financial and governance experience in the face of anxiety about Trump’s tariffs and talk of annexation. The Liberals are now neck and neck with the Conservatives and even ahead in some polls.
With the election expected for either April 28 or May 5, the Conservatives are scrambling to retool their message, notably on the carbon tax, which Carney has now set to zero for consumers but maintained for industrial emitters. They are also questioning Carney’s ethics, claiming he has conflicts of interest stemming from his work as chair of Brookfield Asset Management. The New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh is feeling the squeeze as it attempts to hold onto progressive voters, while the Bloc Québécois of Yves-François Blanchet will fight to represent Quebec’s interests in the new parliament.
For news about outgoing GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon and his decision to run for the Liberals, click here.
So far, Carney’s ‘toughness’ doesn’t seem to bother Trump
Last Thursday, Justin Trudeau’s last full day as prime minister, Donald Trump was emphatic in his desire to force Canada to join the United States during a press event in the Oval Office.
“Canada only works as a state,” he said, referring to the border as “an artificial line” and suggesting that Canschluss — a play on the term Anschluss, denoting Nazi Germany’s annexation of Austria in 1938 — is just a matter of time.
“There will be a little disruption, but it won’t be very long. But they need us. We really don’t need them. And we have to do this. I’m sorry.”
On Friday, former central banker Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s prime minister. In his first news conference, he called Trump’s comments “crazy. That’s all you can say.”
For a few days, Trump didn't repeat his threats, which opened up the possibility that he merely enjoyed dunking onTrudeau, whom he seems to despise, and would now move on. But it was likely that the US president was just busy — carrying out airstrikes in Yemen, deporting migrants to El Salvador, and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.
On Tuesday night, in an interview with Fox News, Trump angrily denounced Canada again, said he doesn’t care if his comments cost the Conservatives the election, and said Canada is “meant to be our 51st state.”
Trump is so toxic in Canada that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievreseized on the comment as evidence that he, not Carney, is the champion the country needs.
Trump’s continued trash talk may show that his fixation is too deep to be deterred by the disinclination of Canadians to be annexed, which is setting him up for a showdown with the new prime minister.
People who know Carney think he may be better equipped to respond than Trudeau was.
Anthony Scaramucci, who became friends with Carney at Goldman Sachs many years ago, and who briefly worked for Trump in 2017, said on MSNBC that the president likely doesn’t want a fight with Carney, who he described as a “very, very tough guy.”
“I don’t think the administration really wants to fight with him,” said the Mooch. “He has energy on his side. He has electricity on his side.”
Trudeau looked weak
Trump and Carney have not yet had the traditional congratulatory call but, on the other hand, he is not yet calling Carney governor — which would be ironic, since he previously served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
It may be that Trump had a special desire to bully Trudeau, who was an unpopular lame duck when Trump was elected.
“Trump, as everybody knows, has an unerring instinct for the weakness of a counterparty, and he seeks to exploit that and control them for it,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group.
The White House will have noticed that Canadians now have their backs up, says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, and are unified around the idea of “sticking it” to the Americans.
“It really has changed the way in which they will be able to negotiate with the United States in an upcoming [trade] renegotiation. It doesn’t matter who the leader of the Canadian government is. That person is going to have to represent the national mood, and the national mood is not conducive to cutting a deal with the United States.”
And Trump appreciates muscle. After blustery Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to impose a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the United States, Trump threatened him into backing down, and then praised him as “a very strong man.”
Thompson notes that Trump has been respectful to Ford, who just won a majority, and Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who enjoys overwhelming support among Mexicans.
“I think that whoever ends up on the other side of the Canadian election, if they get a majority, that would be the most powerful thing in Carney or Poilievre’s pocket, in terms of relations with the Trump administration.”
An election on tackling Trump
For Carney, everything depends on managing Trump, since he has the power to badly damage Canada’s economy with tariffs.
Carney is trying to show strength. After being sworn in, he flew to Europe to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to “strengthen ties with reliable allies,” which seemingly no longer includes the United States.
After flying back to the Canadian Arctic, Carney announced that Canada would buy a CA$6 billion radar system from Australia, getting it before the Americans. He also has asked for a review of the planned CA$19 billion purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets from the United States, “given the geopolitical environment,” although the Americans might be able to use technology-sharing agreements to block Canada from purchasing alternatives.
Last week, Portugal announced it would buy European jets rather than F-35s because of America’s new hostility toward traditional allies, so the Canadian announcement would seem like bad news for politically powerful American supplier Lockheed Martin. This would normally be the kind of thing to get a president’s attention.
Carney, who has met Trump at international conferences and been involved in business deals with Jared Kushner and Elon Musk, will highlight his economic and crisis-management experience in the upcoming Canadian election, which could start as soon as Sunday.
Polls show, in a dramatic reversal, that Canadians now favor Carney over his Conservative rival, who is promising to stand up to Trump but whom Carney has linked to the MAGA movement.
Carney is campaigning on taking a hard line. In London, he said he didn’t intend to negotiate with Trump until he stopped threatening to make Canada the 51st state.
“We’ve called out those comments,” he said. “They’re disrespectful, they’re not helpful, and they need to stop. They will have to stop before we sit down and have a conversation about our broader partnership with the United States.”
But Trump shows no sign of stopping, and if he doesn’t, it’s unclear what Carney — or Poilievre — can do. Both leaders talk about diversifying trade, but it would take years to build the transport infrastructure to make a major shift workable. In the short term, a showdown with a hostile neighbor looks inevitable.
Outgoing GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon
Evan Solomon to run for Liberals
GZERO’s Evan Solomon announced on Thursday that he will be returning to Canada and running for Mark Carney’s Liberals. A former Canadian broadcaster, he has been GZERO’s publisher since 2022.
“Given the urgent challenges and threats facing Canadians right now, I’ve decided it’s the right time to come home and do whatever I can to help serve my community and country,” Solomon said in a LinkedIn post. “I will be joining the team led by Prime Minister Mark Carney and will be running as a candidate in the next Federal election. More details on this will be coming very soon!”
Maziar Minovi, CEO of Eurasia Group, praised Solomon for taking the plunge into politics. “You brought to your leadership at GZERO Media sharp insight, strategic vision, and an unwavering commitment to fact-based journalism. Now, you’re bringing that same passion to public service — exactly the kind of step we love to see from our teams.”
Minovi said the Eurasia Group is happy when members of his team choose public service. “As I often say, if you wouldn’t be seriously tempted to take the right job in government to impact the world, then you don’t belong at Eurasia Group.”
Eurasia Group special advisor Justin Kosslyn will be stepping in as GZERO’s interim publisher.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney holds a press conference at Canada House, in London, Britain, on March 17, 2025.
Canadians to head to the polls
New Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to call a snap election on Sunday, sending Canadians to the polls on April 28 or May 5. The campaign, taking place against a backdrop of provocations from Donald Trump, is expected to focus on who is best equipped to handle the US president, former central banker Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
The Liberals are leading in the polls after an unprecedented 25-point surge since Trump was elected. In the tumultuous period since then, Trudeau was forced out, and Carney took his place, swiftly canceling the consumer carbon tax and thereby removing the two issues Conservatives had built their campaign around. But Poilievre is a veteran, Carney is a political rookie with shaky French, and the electorate is volatile, so the results are unpredictable.
Polling shows Carney — who presided over the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England during economic crises — has an advantage over Poilievre as the candidate best suited to respond to Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty, but Poilievre will challenge that. He seized, for instance, on a Fox News interview in which Trump said he would rather deal with a Liberal government. Poilievre is already delivering campaign-style announcements highlighting his party’s plans to aggressively exploit natural resources, and will argue that Carney will continue with Trudeau-era climate policies that constrained development.
Carney has the momentum, though, after a successful trip to Europe, and the Liberals are announcing high-profile candidates, including former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão and outgoing GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon.
Because of Trump’s rhetoric, Canadians are already intensely engaged, so the campaign ahead is likely to have a different dynamic than most, where part of the challenge is getting tuned-out voters to pay attention. The wildcard will be Trump, who is promising to bring in tariffs on April 2 that could send Canada into a recession as voters are trying to figure out who can best handle him.
Canada's Liberal Party leadership candidates, former House leader Karina Gould, far left, shakes hands with former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, far right, near former Liberal MP Frank Baylis, and former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, before their English language debate ahead of the March 9 vote to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, on Feb. 25, 2025.
Canadian Liberals to get new leader
Carney is favored to win, with a recent Ipsos poll giving him 68% support among Liberal members, ahead of Freeland at 14% and Gould and Baylis in single digits. While a recent poll showed Carney as the leader most trusted to take on Trump, another shows him dropping back behind Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the popular vote.Poll aggregator 338Canada.com shows both the Liberals and Conservatives in a position to form a government, however, if an election were held today.
After leadership, an election? Canadians must go to the polls by Oct. 25, but the House of Commons is supposed to return on March 24, and opposition parties have threatened to bring down the Liberals’ minority government. Until this week, with the party rebounding in the polls, there was speculation the new leader might simply call a snap election, perhaps as early as the week of March 10.
But the winds may have shifted with the imposition of Trump’s tariffs. The head of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, wrote a letter Tuesday demanding an emergency session of Parliament to pass unemployment insurance relief measures, meaning his party does not immediately intend to bring down the government – giving the Liberals a lifeline to stick around a bit longer if they choose.Canada's New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh takes part in a press conference before Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, on Dec. 16, 2024.
A (brief) spring election freeze? Not so fast
Will they or won’t they? It’s been a lot, watching and waiting to see if Canada will face an early election this spring. When Justin Trudeau announced in January that he’d resign in March, launching a leadership race to replace him as Liberal Party leader and prime minister, a spring election seemed certain. Now, maybe not.
The country isn’t due for a vote until October of this year, but the Conservative Party, way up in the polls, is begging for one. And, until recently, it looked like they’d have the backing of the New Democratic Party.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been saying his party would defeat the government and force an election “at the earliest opportunity,” no matter who is leading it. But then Singh said the New Democrats could work with the Liberals to pass legislation to help individuals and businesses hurt by Donald Trump’s impending tariffs.
“I will be voting against the government at the earliest opportunity,” he said Tuesday, before contradicting himself. “If the Liberals are serious, though, about a plan to support workers, call the opposition leaders together. Discuss that plan with us.”
It was confusing.
On Thursday, he clarified himself, saying he thinks Trudeau should recall the legislature immediately to pass a support package for Canadians who’ll suffer from Trump tariffs. Then, in March, the NDP will vote down the government alongside the Conservatives and send the country into an election.
He may not get the chance. Mark Carney hinted that should he win, he might call the election early himself. But if Trump does indeed press ahead with tariffs on Feb. 1, Trudeau may see it fitting to bring back the legislature, however briefly, to pass an aid package in the dying days of his government.President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting of the Investing in America Cabinet in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday. May 5, 2023.
Rate cuts could help Biden and Trudeau’s reelection prospects
The polls are grim these days for incumbent governments. Both President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are trailing their challengers, Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre, particularly when it comes to economic matters.
A new NBC News poll suggested only 36% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, compared to 61% who disapprove. Trump held a 5 percentage point lead when it came to voting intentions. Similarly, two in three Canadians believe Trudeau is taking the country in the wrong direction, while Poilievre holds a lead of up to 15 points on voting intentions for an election that could be 18 months out.
Both men have seen the corrosive impact of rising prices on their popularity. Biden's approval ratings are lower than any president since George W. Bush’s second term.
It may be that both leaders have outstayed their welcome. But they may yet be saved by tumbling inflation, an easing of interest rates, and the short memories of voters.
In the US, the second half of 2023 saw prices rising at around 2%, down from a high of 7.7%. That has happened, even as America sees strong job growth, creating double the forecast number of jobs in January at 353,000 new positions. The unemployment rate is just 3.7%.
Biden has already been selling that message. “Experts said that to get inflation under control, we needed to drive up unemployment. We found a better way,” he tweeted.
The Canadian picture is not quite as robust but still healthy. Unemployment is near historic lows at 5.8%, and poverty levels have halved in recent years, thanks to generous income transfer initiatives like child benefit and a national child care program. But, according to RBC Economics, rising interest rates have caused real pain.
Per capita household income rose by 2.8% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023, while debt repayments rose by 6.4% in the same period, it said.
RBC predicts 2024 will remain a tough year, but with central banks looking to pivot to interest rate cuts, the ratio of household debt to income should rise less this year than in 2023. With polls showing that the rising cost of food and fuel are the preoccupation of up to three in four voters, any relief could have an impact on coming election campaigns.
Gloom could spell doom for Biden and Trudeau
Voters from the Rio Grande to the Arctic are deeply pessimistic about the economy, which means both Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden are facing an uphill battle for reelection.
The horse race polls are worrying for both men. Some 56% of Americans disapprove of the US president, while only 39% approve, and a recent NYT/Siena poll shows him trailing Donald Trump in five of six battleground states. Trudeau’s approval rating is worse — only 33% approve of him, while 61% disapprove. He has trailed the opposition Conservatives by double digits in polls for months.
But polls about the economy contain even worse news for both leaders. History shows that incumbents typically suffer when voters believe bad times are ahead – a lesson Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush learned the hard way. Trouble is, that is exactly what today’s voters think right now in both Canada and the US, says pollster Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Research, a Canadian firm that polls in both countries.
“In both Canada and the US, it's about a net negative 20, people saying they're pessimistic versus optimistic” about their own personal financial prospects in the months ahead.
“What we found in the past is when we ask people about their own personal financial circumstances, they tend to be more optimistic than they are about the global economy or the economy of the country or a region. So it's pretty bad when it's that bad.”
Reality versus perception
In the United States, the actual economic indicators are mixed. Unemployment numbers are not terrible – employers added 150,000 jobs in October, but that was lower than expected – but voters are intensely focused on affordability. The latest numbers show inflation declining, but that doesn’t mean prices are going down fast enough, and there is no guarantee that voters will decide life is more affordable by late next year.
A new poll conducted for the Financial Times shows that only 14% of Americans think Biden has made them better off, which is historically a crucial test for voters come election time. In comparison, in November 2019, when Biden was campaigning for the job, 35% thought they were better off after four years of Trump.
“Biden is not getting in any way sort of credit for … the resilience of the US economy,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's global macro-geopolitics practice. “Everybody thought that if you were going to raise rates this quickly, there would be a downturn or softening growth of some variety much sooner if not a pretty significant one.”
Instead, the economy is proving to be resilient, but voters are not attributing that to Biden. Whatever else is happening in the contest — and next year’s presidential race looks less predictable than most — Biden had better hope voters are more optimistic by November.
Canadian mortgage shock
The underlying economic facts are tougher for Trudeau, whose polling is going from bad to worse. Trudeau’s position looks more precarious because a massive mortgage price shock is on the way. About 45% of Canadian mortgage holders face renewal under sharply higher rates in the next two years, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation warned last week. Sales slowed down in October, and prices have softened. If the trend continues, homeowners who bought at the top of the market could end up paying more than they can afford for properties that are losing value.
Central banks in both countries have boosted rates to try to bring down inflation, but more Americans have 30-year, locked-in mortgages, so Canadians are more vulnerable to rate increases.
Still, voters in both countries are focused on their pocketbooks.
“Housing affordability is number one, food and other general affordability is number two, both in Canada and the US,” says Maggi. “It's been a long time since we've seen economic issues at the top of the ballot, and I really can't remember the last time that it was this prominent.”
People with modest incomes find it hard to focus on anything else when they are struggling to pay for shelter and sustenance, says Thompson. “Those are things that take up a majority of people's capacity to pay and are a higher percentage of household expenditures the poorer you are.”
A recent study by Eurasia Group found that in 57 inflation shocks since 1970, governments turned over in 58% of cases.
There is no reason to think Biden and Trudeau can beat the odds, says Thompson.
“The combination of slow growth on the one hand, and sticky inflation and cost of living pressures on the other is toxic for incumbents.”