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A truck is towed from in front of Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
What We’re Watching: Canada freezes protesters’ assets, Spanish right in turmoil
Canadian protesters see accounts frozen. Authorities have started blocking accounts of people linked to Canada’s trucker convoy and protests in accordance with the Emergencies Act invoked last week by PM Justin Trudeau. Royal Canadian Mounted Police froze more than 200 financial products, including bank and corporate accounts, linked to vaccine mandate protesters who have brought chaos to Ottawa and US border crossings in recent weeks. Opposition leaders and a Canadian civil rights group question the legality of the move, which Trudeau says is necessary for restoring order. American truckers and President Joe Biden, meanwhile, will be watching closely as a similar convoy gets underway in the US this week. Plans are reportedly in place to set up perimeter fencing around the US Capitol building ahead of Biden’s State of the Union address on March 1 for fear of similar protests plaguing the nation’s capital.
Spanish conservatives implode. Spain’s center-right Popular Party was on an upswing in May 2021 after obliterating the left in Madrid’s regional election. But thanks to a messy public fight between the PP’s somewhat unpopular leader and the Madrid regional president, who controls the base, the party has seen those gains wiped away in recent polls. Who benefited? The far-right Vox Party, which could now be on the cusp of overtaking the PP as the main opposition party in the eyes of Spanish voters. Vox’s big boss Santiago Abascal, who recently played host to fellow EU far-right leaders such as Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen, increasingly sees himself as Spain’s next leader. Could the PP get relegated to junior coalition partner? Such a move would trigger a political earthquake in the last Western European country to overthrow a far-right dictatorship (in 1975), currently run by a fragile leftwing coalition government backed by Basque and Catalan separatists. Buckle up for turbulent months ahead in Spanish politics.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Volodymyr Selenskyj, President of Ukraine, give a press conference
What We're Watching: Scholz in Moscow, Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act, a crucial Russian vote
Is there a dog for Olaf Scholz in Moscow? The German chancellor will sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday as fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to mount. On Monday, Scholz met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, and they both downplayed the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. Such expansion of the alliance is a red line for Putin, who has massed more than 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s border and demanded assurances from Washington that NATO will stop expanding eastward. Scholz has said Berlin will back strong sanctions against Moscow in the event of an invasion, but Germany is also heavily dependent on Russian gas, a vulnerability that Putin will doubtless look to exploit. We’re watching to see how Putin handles the new German leader. At his first head of state meeting with Scholz’s predecessor, Angela Merkel, Putin famously brought his black lab Konni despite knowing the German Chancellor was afraid of dogs. What awaits Scholz?
A bridge too far in Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly invoked the Emergencies Act on Monday, giving federal authorities additional powers to deal with ongoing protests by truckers opposed to vaccine mandates. The demonstrations have wreaked havoc in the Canadian capital, Ottawa, and at various border crossings. Late Sunday, police arrested those who blocked the Ambassador Bridge between Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit, Michigan, reopening the critical US-Canada trade route. But troubles remain at other border crossings. On Monday, Mounties in the western province of Alberta arrested 11 people after finding weapons in trailers at a protest near the US frontier. Trudeau says he has no plans to use the military to deal with the crisis, but he’s clearly feeling the frustration of average Canadians, nearly three-quarters of whom now say they want the protesters to go home, according to a new Angus Reid Institute poll. Meanwhile, Canadian demonstrations are having a knock-on effect globally, with copycat protests kicking off in France, the Netherlands, and New Zealand.
A Russian vote on independence for Ukraine’s breakaway provinces. On Tuesday, Russian lawmakers are expected to offer a proposal in Russia’s parliament, the State Duma, that calls on President Vladimir Putin to immediately recognize the independence of the breakaway Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia has supported their separatist governments with cash, weapons, and other forms of military support since 2014 – though Moscow denies direct involvement. This is an intriguing development because Russian recognition would effectively end peace negotiations over the so-called Minsk Agreement but could also allow Russia to claim a major victory on behalf of ethnic Russians living in that region without starting a war that imposes all kinds of heavy costs on the Kremlin. We’re watching this latest move to see whether Putin will direct members of the ruling party to support it.
A Ukrainian soldier tests a US-supplied M141 Bunker Defeat Munition weapon in Lviv.
What We’re Watching: Foreigners advised to leave Ukraine, Egypt-Sudan blockade, Canadian truckers vs auto makers
Ukraine alert level rises. Americans and Brits are being urged to leave Ukraine. On Friday, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan advised American citizens “to depart [Ukraine] immediately” within the “next 24 to 48 hours” and characterized the threat as “immediate.” A Russian military move against Ukraine, he said, could begin "before the Olympics have ended." Sullivan also noted that a significant amount of territory in Ukraine could be occupied by Russian troops. The British foreign office similarly told Brits living in the region to leave while commercial flights are still available.
Lithuania, meanwhile, says it will send Kyiv a cache of Stinger surface-to-air missiles in the next few days to bolster Ukrainian defenses against a possible Russian invasion. Battlefield bonafides aside, the symbolism is rich: these same weapons helped bury the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to prevent war continue, if choppily. The UK defense minister will meet his Russian counterpart in Moscow on Friday, though the Kremlin doesn’t seem to take London very seriously. Russia’s top diplomat shot down threats of British sanctions as “empty slogans” and said his talks on Thursday with UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were a meeting of “the mute with the deaf.” With Russia massing troops on Ukraine’s border and running massive war games in neighboring Belarus, stakes are high. The next big diplomatic moves? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky before heading to Moscow to see Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.
Sudan-Egypt trade route blockade. Things are heating up along a crucial trade route between Sudan and Egypt. The Northern Artery has been blocked by Sudanese protesters angry about electricity price hikes. As a result, thousands of Egyptian truckers are unable to deliver home staples like vegetables, and the blockade is disrupting the livestock trade. Stakes are high for both sides. For Egypt, maintaining warm(ish) ties with Sudan is crucial: the two countries share a long border, and they are on the same side of a Nile dam dispute with Ethiopia. Cairo also needs Khartoum for intelligence sharing in an increasingly volatile region. Sudan, which long suffered from crippling US sanctions, relies heavily on trade with Egypt. Will Cairo or Khartoum intervene before things get even more out of control at the border?
Canadian truckers sideswipe car manufacturers. Several major auto plants in Canada have halted production due to supply shortages caused by the ongoing truckers protest. Since Monday, the “Freedom Convoy” — a group of several hundred truckers occupying central Ottawa to protest pandemic restrictions — has blocked the Ambassador Bridge, which carries about a quarter of all US-Canadian trade. Ottawa says this is thwarting roughly $300 million in daily commerce, and Washington is warning of the effects on northbound agriculture exports from Michigan. Prime Minister Trudeau refuses to meet with the truckers and has deemed the protests “unacceptable.” But it doesn’t look like they’re going anywhere soon. Is there an off-ramp here, or is a big crash likely?
Signs of Russian climbdown following Macron-Putin meeting
How did the Macron-Putin meeting go? What is going on with the Canadian truckers' protest? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How did the Macron-Putin meeting go?
What was five hours long and it was like a football field away from each other. And of course, Macron is focused on his election coming up. So with all of that, you'd think it would be problematic, but actually engagement between Macron and Biden the day before was pretty strong. And it does look like the ball’s moved a little bit diplomatically. Most importantly, some of the news coming out of the Kremlin overnight that indeed the Russians are planning on taking those troops out of Belarus after the military exercises are over. Now I mean, of course, if they say they are planning on taking them back out of Belarus and putting them into Ukraine, that would be a technicality, but pretty bad. But no, actually that does seem like a bit of a climbdown. Still, Putin is not friendly. He is blustering all over the place and certainly, he wants to be respected. He doesn't feel like he is right now. But on balance we're in a slightly better place because of the Macron meeting than we were the day before.
What is going on with the Canadian truckers' protest?
Well, a relatively small number of Canadian truckers who are anti vax mandate in the country decided to basically shut down central Ottawa. And first of all, it's not about the truckers as a whole. 90% of truckers in Canada are vaccinated. Secondly, this was largely the Canadian government in Ottawa not wanting any confrontation and so allowing these truckers to come in and basically take over the city and make lots of people miserable. And now they've declared a state of emergency. What is interesting is that the Conservative Party in Canada is becoming much more populist and the potential for a Trump-style leader in Canada to take over the conservative movement and potentially even win the premiership is real. And that would be kind of shocking for those that are focused on Canada as the nicer, softer side of the United States. There is a real populist movement that's gaining strength in Canada and the truckers are a part of it.
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Truckers and their supporters protest coronavirus disease vaccine mandates, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
What We’re Watching: Truckers take Ottawa, Iran nuclear deal 'final stage,' Israeli spying scandal, Turkey-Greece disco row
Ottawa “out of control.” Is Washington next? Hundreds of Canadian truckers angry about vaccine mandates have paralyzed the country’s capital for more than a week, blocking roads, blaring horns, and demanding an end to pandemic restrictions. City officials have now declared a state of emergency, with the mayor admitting the situation is “out of control.” While the provincial government in Alberta has pledged to lift all restrictions in response to local sympathy protests, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has refused to meet with the truckers. Meanwhile, his Conservative opponents are split on whether to support the truckers. Recent polls show that only about 30% of Canadians sympathize with the protests, but the cause has attracted global attention and lots of cash: a GoFundMe campaign raised some $8 million before being shut down. Meanwhile, US truckers are planning to descend on Washington, DC, with a similar convoy next month. Given the shortage of truckers and rising consumer prices, will protesting truckers be seen as freedom fighters or be blamed for shortages of vegetables?
Iran nuclear pact: breakthrough or breakdown? The eighth and likely final stage of Iran nuclear negotiations kicks off Tuesday in Geneva. The long-stalled talks halted (again) last week as diplomats from China, Russia, the UK, France, and Germany flew home to brief their respective governments on the progress. Some experts believe a return to the nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018, is likely. Why the optimism? Because the US last week agreed to restore some sanction waivers, which means foreign companies working with Iran on civilian nuclear projects would be exempt from economic penalties. Still, disagreements remain: Tehran refuses to negotiate directly with Washington, for example, and wants the restoration of all sanction relief promised under the 2015 deal. Critics say the window for reaching an agreement has closed because Iran is just weeks away from amassing enough material to build a nuclear bomb. Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, meanwhile, warned that Israel could still launch a military strike against Iran even if the negotiating countries recommit to the nuclear deal.
Israeli spying scandal. Israel’s government has vowed to investigate new bombshell claims that the police used spyware to hack activists, civil servants, politicians, and other high-profile public figures, including witnesses in the ongoing corruption trial of former PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Pegasus software, developed by the Israeli firm NSO, has been the target of much scrutiny in recent months after it was revealed that several authoritarian governments bought the software – with the permission of Israel’s Defense Ministry – to crack down on dissidents and political opponents. (Pegasus has since been blacklisted in the US.) PM Naftali Bennett said Monday that the allegations were very serious and will be thoroughly investigated. Still, some Israelis fear that Netanyahu, who was ousted last year, might use the revelation to stall his corruption trial. Bibi’s son (also a hacking victim) and lawyers have already launched such a campaign.
What We’re Listening To
Funky town controversy in Turkey. The latest spat between Turkey and Greece doesn’t center on the usual issues, such as Cyprus, gas drilling rights in the Mediterranean, or the endless debate about who really invented yogurt. This time it’s about a disco party held at a former Orthodox Monastery in Eastern Turkey. Although the 4th-century cliffside Sumela complex lost its religious function a hundred years ago when ethnic Greeks were expelled from the new Turkish Republic, it’s a popular destination for Greek Orthodox pilgrims. Athens has protested, saying that social media clips of the party are “offensive” and a “desecration.” Come on, Turkey and Greece – can’t we all just join hands and start a love train?