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Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump.
Georgia poses new dangers for Trump
Late Monday night, Donald Trump and 18 other people were indicted by a grand jury in Atlanta for conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the state of Georgia.
Trump will face 13 felony charges. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and other alleged co-conspirators are charged with taking part in a “criminal enterprise” to flip the presidential election in a crucial state.
You can read the full indictment here.
Let’s cut to the chase: Trump has already been indicted three times – in New York City, Washington, DC, and Florida – and he faces dozens of other felony charges in those cases. And though it’s too soon to know the likelihood of a Trump conviction in any of them, there’s no evidence yet that they’ve dented his popularity. Here are the latest GOP primary numbers and matchups with President Joe Biden.
Is this case different? Might this one put Trump in real legal and political jeopardy?
In fact, Georgia may offer Trump a much tougher set of both legal and political problems. Here are three reasons why.
RICO
Georgia law features something called the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, widely known as RICO. Legal experts have warned that the broad powers this law gives a prosecutor – in this case, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis – can be used to charge Trump with all sorts of crimes related to the core charge of election fraud.
Under Georgia’s RICO law, prosecutors can bring such a case simply by showing the existence of an “enterprise” involved in at least two “qualifying” crimes that form part of a “pattern of racketeering activity.” He could, for example, be charged with solicitation to commit election fraud, perjury, forgery and/or improperly influencing government officials. These crimes need not have taken place in Georgia if their purpose was to overturn Georgia’s election results.
Crucially, the law doesn’t require the state to prove that Trump personally ordered, or even knew about, the commission of every crime in the indictment. It need only prove he led the enterprise that committed them.
Cameras rolling
In the interest of transparency, Georgia law requires there be cameras in the courtroom, unless a judge has a compelling reason not to allow them. This entire case may well play out on live television.
Yes, Trump is still riding high in Republican primary polls and running neck and neck with Biden. But undecided general election voters, particularly the independents Trump needs to win over in Nov. 2024, can now have a much closer look at the evidence against him. They won’t simply hear about it from Trump himself or from Trump-friendly media.
He also faces the risk that after months of televised daily legal grind, public fatigue with his long list of criminal charges will start to set in.
Unpardonable crimes
Despite all this, Trump may well be elected president next November, and the president of the United States can legally pardon convicted criminals. In theory, a president could pardon himself, though that idea has never been tested by US courts. But the charges facing Trump in Georgia are for state, not federal, crimes. No president can pardon someone convicted in state court.
Complicating matters further, under Georgia law, the governor couldn’t pardon a convicted president either. (There are already plenty of hard feelings between Trump and Governor Brian Kemp, who refused to help Trump reverse the state’s presidential election results in 2020.) If Trump were convicted in Georgia, only a five-member pardon board could absolve him. That’s a far more complicated problem.
The bottom line: Donald Trump has defied political and legal gravity for years. A poorly prepared prosecution, a friendly juror or two, and continued support from committed followers might well keep him aloft through 2024.
Or, Georgia might prove the band Radiohead right: “Gravity always wins.”
The Graphic Truth: Trump's indictment fundraising boom
Former President Donald Trump on Thursday pleaded not guilty to four counts linked to allegations that he tried to undermine the 2020 election result and remain in power despite losing the vote.
A judge set the first hearing for Aug. 28, just days after the first Republican presidential debate is set to take place – though the GOP frontrunner has suggested he may not participate in the debate.
Thursday’s appearance marked the third time in just four months that Trump has stood in a court and pleaded not guilty to criminal charges.
Still, not only do these legal woes not appear to be hurting Trump in the polls – the former president remains the frontrunner by a huge margin – but his joint fundraising committees have actually seen a boost from his previous indictments. The charges appear to be firing up his loyal base. (To be sure, that doesn’t translate to cash on hand as his legal quandaries appear to be draining the committee’s finances.)
We take a look at what Trump’s monthly joint fundraising committee has raised since he announced his reelection bid in Nov. 2022.
A protester holds a banner that says "Trump indicted."
What makes this Trump case different?
Former President Donald Trump will appear in federal court on Thursday after being indicted by federal prosecutors for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election result.
(For more on what’s in the indictment, see here.)
Amid a seemingly never-ending loop of Trump legal quandaries, what makes this case different from the former president’s other legal woes?
Many legal scholars have said the other two cases in which Trump has been indicted in recent months – relating to hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign and the mishandling of classified documents – are more minor compared to the severity of the federal counts he’s now facing. Indeed, the federal indictment accuses him of “defrauding the federal government,” and, well, attempting to steal the presidency itself.
What’s more, the documents case (the trial is scheduled for May 2024) will be presided over by a Trump-appointed judge in deep-red Florida who has made legal decisions in the past beneficial to the man who gave her the job.
Conversely, this case will be heard by an Obama-tapped judge who has issued harsh sentences against Jan. 6 rioters and compelled the Trump team to grant Congress access to crucial materials during the course of its probe of the Capitol riots that became the cornerstone of the investigative committee’s findings.
Lawyers in the hush money payment case in New York, meanwhile, will need to prove that Trump falsified business records in order to cover a crime – which many legal scholars say will be hard to do. But in the election case, some of the Jan 6. rioters have already been tried – and found guilty – under the same statutes.
Finally, this is uncharted waters for the US. No president has ever been charged with trying to steal an election, and no prosecutor has ever had to navigate such unknown legal and political territory.
Both sides will try hard to determine what evidence can be used at trial, which, given Trump’s other court cases – and the sensitivity of this case – could still be many months away. Still, all four of the felonies Trump is facing carry potential prison terms of between 5-20 years. So, could he pardon himself if he were to win the 2024 election? There’s no clear-cut answer, experts say, given that no president has ever been hit with criminal charges.
An explosion caused by a police munition while supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump storm the U.S. Capitol Building.
Trump charged with trying to overturn 2020 election
“Despite having lost, the Defendant was determined to remain in power.” So reads Tuesday’s federal indictment of former President Donald Trump.
The first set of charges linked to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s probe of Trump’s dealings in the weeks and months leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots dropped late Tuesday, and the former president faces four felony counts for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election. These include: conspiracy to violate civil rights, conspiracy to defraud the American government, corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to carry out such obstruction.
Along with these new charges, Trump is now facing three separate criminal cases – the other two concern hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign and mishandling classified documents.
Thus far, he has denied wrongdoing related to the 2020 election. We expect more of the same when he appears in court on Thursday in Washington, DC, to answer the latest charges.
Will even more legal trouble hurt him at the polls? Unlikely. Trump is running neck and neck with President Joe Biden, according to a new Times/Siena poll, and he’s outpacing his nearest Republican rival for the nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 37 points.
As Jon Lieber, managing director of Eurasia Group's US Practice, pointed out when Trump was indicted recently over his alleged mishandling of classified documents, these scandals don’t seem to hurt the former president. “[He] has survived multiple rounds of scandal, legal challenges, and ethical lapses that would've sunk any other politician.” Case in point: If Trump were to run against DeSantis today, he would, according to the Times/Siena poll, get 22% of his votes from those who believe he has committed federal crimes.
January 6th Committee votes on criminal referrals against Trump.
What We're Watching: Jan 6. panel's final report, Japan's nuclear U-turn, Fiji's unresolved election, Venezuela's opposition shakeup
Jan. 6 committee suggests Congress ban Trump from office
After an 18-month inquiry, the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol has released its final report, blaming Donald J. Trump of a “multi-part conspiracy” to overturn the 2020 presidential election results and of failing to stop the insurrection when he knew the situation was spiraling out of control. The report also points fingers at some of Trump’s former wingmen – such as Mark Meadows, Trump’s final White House chief of staff, and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani – naming them as potential “co-conspirators.” So what now? The report lays out steps to prevent this sort of calamity from happening again, including a proposal to strengthen the 14th Amendment's ban on insurrectionists that would prevent Trump and his enablers from ever holding office again. Though the report – which Trump has called “highly partisan” – carries no legal weight, it sends a powerful message to the US Justice Department, which is conducting its own investigation into the Jan. 6 attack.
Japan reverses course on nuclear power
Japan announced on Thursday that it will extend the lifespan of its existing nuclear power plants, restart mothballed ones, and build new facilities to replace those that get phased out. PM Fumio Kishida says this is necessary to maintain the power supply while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But it's a major about-face for Japan, which in 2011 shut down all its atomic plants after the Fukushima meltdown, the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl. On the one hand, public support for embracing nuclear has turned around recently due to rising energy costs and Japan's push to wean itself off Russian oil and natural gas. On the other, the archipelago remains as vulnerable to seismic activity as it did when a magnitude 9 earthquake triggered a tsunami that rocked Fukushima — not to mention what happened to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Do you think Japan is doing the right thing? Let us know here.
A self-coup in Fiji?
Fiji is known for its pristine beaches, world-class scuba diving, and kava, the mildly hallucinogenic national drink. But its politics have a dark side: Every few years, there's a military power grab. After a recent messy election delivered a hung parliament, an alliance of three opposition parties on Friday confirmed an earlier deal to return former PM Sitiveni Rabuka to the premiership. But current PM Frank Bainimarama won't concede and had responded by deploying the army to help the police maintain "law and order." Many Fijians are suspicious — after all, Bainimarama came to power 16 years ago in a bloodless coup, as did Rabuka in 1987. What's more, the recent unrest has rekindled a long-held beef between majority ethnic Fijians and minority ethnic Indians. We don't know how this will all turn out, but things are not looking good in this Pacific island paradise.
Is Guaido’s time up?
Four years ago, Juan Guaido was touted as Venezuela's rising political star, who was going to rescue the country from strongman President Nicolas Maduro and bring better days to the people of Venezuela. Now, the former wunderkind is on the verge of being ousted as head of the opposition ahead of a vote next week in the National Assembly. At least 70 lawmakers from three of the four parties that make up Venezuela's opposition say they will back a motion to ditch Guaido as leader. “We can’t continue with a strategy that has shown no results,” one lawmaker said. In 2018, after general elections that were broadly seen as a power grab by Maduro, Guaido set up a shadow government backed by the West. But as Maduro has retained control of the military, and Guaido’s domestic popularity has plunged to around 17% – only a handful of Western governments (including the US) now recognize him as the country’s legitimate president. Infighting within the opposition is good news for the Maduro regime, which was already buoyed by the US recently easing some sanctions on its oil sector. Critics say Guaido has made no progress in moving the country towards new elections. But who will replace him?
One year since Jan. 6 insurrection; why Trump endorsed Viktor Orbán
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on the anniversary of the January 6 Capitol insurrection, Trump's endorsement of Viktor Orbán, and Novak Djokovic's avoidance of vaccination rules.
A year later, what should we call the Jan. 6? A coup attempt? A riot? An insurrection? Domestic terrorism?
I think I'd go with an insurrection, since it was the former president, sitting president of the United States who had not been re-elected, claimed he was re-elected, and called on his supporters to march on the Capitol building, and didn't stop them when they occupied it illegally. The whole “Hang Mike Pence” thing does imply insurrection. Doesn't imply domestic terrorism. Very few of them were trying to engage in political violence, though I think certainly, a few were. And a riot by itself doesn't really hit it.
But I also want to say that I'm very sympathetic to many of the people that did march on the Capitol. I mean, if your president, and the Republicans in office, and the media is telling you that the election was stolen, and you're following their exhortations to do something about it, that's actually what the United States stands for. So I blame the authorities a hell of a lot more than I do the people that hit the Capitol on Jan. 6. And I think they should sue those people, because we are a litigious society.
Why is Trump endorsing Viktor Orban?
Well, because he is the most strongly Euro-skeptic, anti-EU leader in the European Union. And Trump strongly opposes a strong Europe. We saw that with his pro-Brexit stance. We saw that with his support for Marine Le Pen in France, and it plays out with Viktor Orban. And the fact that he is a xenophobe, anti-immigration, and is an authoritarian anti-democrat, those are features, not bugs, but that's not fundamental to it, all of which is kind of embarrassing, but par for the course, for the former president.
Vaccine skeptic, Novak Djokovic was granted a medical exemption to compete in the Australian Open. Does this set a bad precedent?
Well, I mean, it sets the precedent that the world tennis organization really cares about having its number one star play in the Australian Open. They're looking for money, and they're looking for great tennis. And I mean, obviously, if you're the best tennis player in the world, you can't expect the same rules are going to apply to you as would apply to everybody else. I mean, if it works in politics, why wouldn't it work in the politics of tennis? It's kind of sad, but it will make for a better Australian Open, and I'm sure that's why they made the decisions. So, there you go. Be like Djokovic, I guess. And I wish he was not an anti-vaxxer, but that's "If wishes were horses," as they say, "even my grandma would ride."
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Clashes in Brazil as Bolsonaro's support plummets
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here with the Quick Take. Back in the office, we are functioning and open after a year and a half which is absolutely insane. 80 new employees since the pandemic who haven't met each other in person, most of the time. So God, we're happy to be back here. And wanted to kick it off by talking about Brazil.
Haven't talked about Brazil in a while, but it is their Independence Day. And wow, what an Independence Day it is. President Bolsonaro, who is in the cellar, popularity wise, the lowest popularity he's had since he's been president. And for lots of reasons, mishandling of COVID, economic problems, energy shortages, even a little bit of corruption scandals. Seen as not an effective president of the country and presidential elections next year. So, a combination of things that are setting him off individually. And has said quite famously in the past few days, that in upcoming elections, he's either going to win, or be arrested, or be killed. That those are the only three options.
In other words, it is inconceivable that he could possibly lose elections, and just like someone else here in the United States just a year ago. And so, with the Independence Day, he basically told his supporters, I want you to come out onto the streets in Sao Paulo, in Brasilia. They've been trucking in a whole bunch, thousands from agricultural regions. He told them to grab their rifles. The potential for violence is very real. And indeed yesterday, as some of these demonstrations were setting up, you've seen some push through police blockades. So, the potential for a January 6th type event in Brazil is very real. And have to be concerned about much larger scale violence in Brazil than what we experienced in the United States back in January. And as in the United States, the president of Brazil is very much personally inspiring and inciting the events that are happening.
I mean, if his supporters believe that the election is going to be stolen by the nefarious deep state, the institutions that will do anything possible legally or illegally to take away the president that they voted for, then how could it be anything but patriotic to go out and express your support through whatever means necessary for the democratically elected president? Now, couple of differences between Brazil and the United States, some on the positive side, some on the negative side. On the positive side, Brazilian elections are at the national level, unlike in the United States where rules are set up state by state. So, it's actually a lot more difficult in Brazil to fudge or to politically contest an outcome. As in the United States, in Brazil, the judiciary is quite independent. And indeed, in the case of Brazil, is very much a foe of Bolsonaro and there's been enormous amount of fighting between the president and the Supreme Court, which is part of what's causing the crisis we have right now.
There is an open question as to whether Bolsonaro would try to refuse to accept rulings of the Supreme Court going forward, which could cause an institutional crisis. Bolsonaro is also a military man, hails from the military, has a lot of support among the rank and file. Not the federal level generals, not the leaders of the armed forces, but state police who are responsible to, accountable to local governors in regions that are supportive of Bolsonaro could well be loyal to him. And so the potential that you could see some level of split among those, with the legitimate ability to carry firearms in support of a Bolsonaro faction is real. And that could cause a lot more violence in Brazil than what we saw in the United States, where everyone in the military with the exception of a couple of individuals, let's say lone wolf wackos, on January 6th was very much in favor of rule of law.
Having said all of that, Bolsonaro has a relatively weak political party, his presidencies all on the back of him. And he is frittering away significant support. He has been the leader of the right, and as a consequence, business leaders and finance leaders have been fairly, strongly supporting him. You are now starting to see that support erode. And indeed, I've seen a number of them not just talk to me privately, but also talk publicly about their opposition to the way Bolsonaro has been governing recently. And so I think what is interesting is that the likely outcome in Brazil, if things get really ugly, if you end up with a January 6th type event on steroids, either today, which is certainly possible, or in the run-up to upcoming elections, then what would be more likely is Bolsonaro loses a very significant amount of his existing support and there's then space for a third party in the center for a new candidate that would show up. If that doesn't happen, then the most likely outcome is Lula, who the former president of the country who had been indicted, arrested, and in jail, and then released. And now is running for president would become president again in Brazil, something the business community would hate. But right now his numbers are vastly better than Bolsonaro's.
Two-person race, that's the likely outcome. If it's a three-person race, then all bets are off. But right now, Bolsonaro weakening very significantly. And as he's getting cornered, is becoming more and more extreme in his motives and his strategy. And that is losing more and more support. So very different from the institutionalized two-party system in the United States, where even after Trump loses, the Republican Party is still his party. By the way, another question a lot of people talking about whether or not he's going to announce that he's going to be the Republican nominee or he's running for president, who will certainly be the nominee if he does. Soon, given Afghanistan, but that's a different Quick Take.
Anyway, that's it for me, hope that Brazil stays relatively peaceful today, but we will see, and we'll be talking about it. Be good, everyone. Talk to you soon.
A supporter of Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro holds a sign which reads "printed and auditable vote" during a protest calling for a printed and auditable vote in Brasilia.
Yes, a January 6 could happen in Brazil
The next elections are more than a year away, but Brazilians are already holding their breath: President Jair Bolsonaro will face off against former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in a very tight contest between two of the most popular and yet controversial political leaders in Brazil. Polls are giving Lula an edge today, mostly because of Bolsonaro's mismanagement of the pandemic, but a lot will change until October 2022, especially as a recovering economy makes Bolsonaro more competitive.
If Lula wins, coming back to power after spending almost two years in jail for alleged corruption, Brazil will take a dramatic policy shift in many areas, especially on the environmental agenda. But stakes are high not only because of that: with so much in play, Bolsonaro is threatening to contest the election results if he loses. We find out more from Silvio Cascione, Brazil director at Eurasia Group.
Why are people worried that Bolsonaro won't accept the 2022 election results?
Because Bolsonaro is making very clear threats. He said, for instance, that if congress does not change the constitution to introduce printed ballots, the elections may not happen. The supreme court has opened an investigation into him because of the threats, and then he replied on August 5 that his reaction could be "outside the constitutional limits." If there was any doubt that Bolsonaro is headed to contest next year's presidential elections, the past few weeks dispelled them.
Has this happened before in Brazil, and to what extent is there a Trump contagion effect at work?
Election fraud was a serious problem in Brazil before electronic voting was introduced in the 1990s. Before that happened, there were other moments in which some groups, like the military, contested election results. But there was no such a threat since democracy was restored in 1988. Trump's example certainly inspires Bolsonaro and his allies. To be sure, Bolsonaro has criticized electronic ballots for many years, even before he was elected president. But they saw how contesting the election results helped galvanize Trump's hardcore base late in his mandate, and he is trying to do the same in Brazil.
Is violence likely around elections? Or only if Bolsonaro loses?
Risk of violence is higher even during the campaign. The 2018 election was already remarkably violent. Bolsonaro was stabbed and Lula almost got shot during a campaign trip. With such high levels of polarization, candidates are already stepping up their security apparatus for 2022. After the vote, risk of violence is higher indeed if Bolsonaro loses and some of this base takes to the streets to contest the results. The leadership of the armed forces will not back him, but he has significant support within the rank and file of the state-based military police forces. Pockets of Bolsonaro supporters in the military police could promote acts of insubordination supporting claims of fraud. Episodes like the January 6 moment in the US could well happen.
What are the prospects of election reversal?
Despite all that, risks of election reversal are very small. Unlike the US, vote counting is quick, as well as any potential audits, and results do not need to be validated by states or by congress. Bolsonaro would remain as president for two months, but he would have no power in the transition period to reverse the results.
What are longer-term risks for Brazilian democracy?
When the president himself throws the electoral system into question, trust in democratic institutions becomes smaller. That is what created the conditions for an outsider like Bolsonaro to get elected in the first place. Now, in office, he is amplifying that distrust by leading a crusade against the electronic vote. If you have a third of the population believing the election was rigged, the government will face a more virulent opposition.
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