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Is the US-Europe alliance permanently damaged?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Is the transatlantic relationship permanently damaged by what we have seen during the last 10 days or so?
Well, there is no question that the last 10 days or so have been the worst by far for the transatlantic relationship in, well, modern recorded history. You can go through all of the details if you want. It started with the shameful vote in the UN General Assembly on the same day that was three years after the war of aggression that Russia started, where the United States turned around, lined up with Russia, and with primarily a bunch of countries that you would not normally like to be seen in the company of, in order to try to defeat the Europeans, and defeat the Ukrainians, and defeat the Japanese, and defeat the Australians, defeat all of the friends who have criticized the Russians.
It was truly shameful. It was defeated, needless to say, but it left deep marks there. And then it was downhill from there, with that particular week ending with the ambush in the Oval Office, with all of the details associated with that, with sort of a childish dispute about dress codes, and respect for whatever, and total disregard for the important issues that are at stake at the moment. And to that was added, the vice president seriously insulting the allies, primarily the British and the French, and then cutting of aid to Ukraine, including intelligence cooperation, which is unheard of, unheard of when it comes to these particular issues.
So, is damage permanent? Well, one would hope that... well, hope springs eternal, that there would be a way back. But this will be remembered for a long time to come. And the reaction in Europe, well, you have to keep a straight face if you are a political leader. And they do, they hope for the best, but they're increasingly preparing for the worst. What we might be heading into is Mr. Trump, President Trump lining up with President Putin in a deal that is essentially on Russia's term over Ukraine, then trying to force Ukraine into that particular deal, a repetition of Munich 1938.
Will that work? I think it's unlikely to work because the Ukrainians are determined to stand up for their country. And they have the support of the Europeans. Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't have much support. So, whether it will work or not is debatable, but that is the direction in which things are heading at the moment. Can this be stopped or can the trajectory of things be changed? Let's hope. There's a flurry of meetings in Europe. There will be a lot of contacts across the Atlantic. There is a strong support for Ukraine in Europe, but then deep apprehensions of where we are heading. Further four years with President Trump. After that, (possibly) four to eight years with JD Vance. Well, well, there's a lot of thinking that needs to be done on this side of the Atlantic.
Trump's Ukraine peace plan confuses Europe leaders
What is the European reaction to what President Trump is trying to achieve in terms of peace?
Well, confusion. A lot of people, and there are quite a number of European leaders here, today, don't really understand what President Trump is up to. He wants peace, that's fine. But peace can be, well, that could be the complete capitulation of Ukraine, that is the Putin definition of peace. Or it can be the victory of Ukraine, that's another definition of peace. So exactly how President Trump intends to pursue this? And without Europe, obviously, neither Putin nor Trump wants Europe around the table.
But how do you do it without Ukraine on the table? Because a lot of the things that are going to be necessary to agree with are things that have to be agreed with Ukraine, with President Zelensky. So a lot of question marks. The desire for peace is clearly here, no question about that. This war has to come to end. But the peace has to be just, it has to be stable. It has to be something that is not just a pause for Russia to recalibrate and restart the war.
So a lot of things to discuss between the European leaders and between the European leaders and President Zelensky, is happening in Kyiv here today. But also eventually, across the Atlantic, President Macron is in Washington today, Prime Minister Starmer is heading into Washington on Thursday.
EU rolls back Syria sanctions for economic rebound
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Is the European Union opening up to cooperation with the new government or regime in Damascus?
Yes, they are gradually. The foreign minister of the European Union took the decision early this week to start to ease sanctions on Syria that have been in place for years. And that is very important in order to start to get the economy going in the country. And that, of course, is very important in terms to start addressing all of the humanitarian needs. And also, eventually getting the economy going so that at some point in time perhaps people can start to move back to the country that they were forced to flee from during the years of civil war and repression.
Why was the prime minister of Serbia sacked?
That was part of a bigger move, defensive move, you can say by the president, by President Vučić. He has been under intense pressure due the last few months. There was an accident in Novi Sad, the second-biggest city that was blamed on the roof fell in, and that was blamed on bad construction and corruption. That has crystallized massive opposition to his regime, which has been there for a long time and is seen as increasingly authoritarian. So, pressure has been building up and he was now forced to concede sacking the prime minister and announcing new elections in April. So new elections in April in Serbia. There will be elections in Kosovo before that. There will be elections also in Albania. So, a lot of things are in flux in the Southern Balkans.
At Davos, all eyes are on Trump
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Davos, Switzerland.
What’s been going on here?
It’s been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. It’s been very much dominated by assessments, curiosity, concern about the transition in the US. A lot of businessmen are fairly, sort of, upbeat. They think there’s sort of a deregulation and lower taxes, that’s good. Economists are more worried. Debts and deficits, that’s not good. And those dealing with geopolitics, like myself, are deeply concerned.
Is he going to go to war with Denmark over Greenland? What’s going to happen with the Panama Canal? Is their Middle East policy that is credible? And what is he really up to when it comes to dealing with Mr. Putin on Ukraine? There are lots of questions, lots of concerns. But, upbeat assessment, in spite of that.
Why NATO launches a Baltic Sea operation
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Why has NATO launched a new operation in the Baltic Sea?
Well the reason is to have better safety and security for the undersea infrastructure of different cables that we have in the Baltic Sea. There have been a number of incidents in the last few months when these cables have been damaged or cut by ships that have passed by dragging their anchors. They've often been associated with the part of what you call the 'shadow fleet' of earlier old rusty tankers transporting oil from Russia in violation of sanctions. So, the NATO operation is supposed to keep that under watch, prevent it, and secure the undersea infrastructure.
Are the sanctions against Russia by the EU and US really working?
Yes, they are. But of course it's a long-term effect. No question about that. They are degrading the strength of the Russian economy in a number of areas. Critical is the ability, which is a difficult one, to try to limit the gains in the profits that Russia is making off the oil exports, primarily to India and Russia. And I think the latest round of US sanctions and EU sanctions against the shadow of fleets of rusty old tankers, I think that will have an even more important effect than what we've seen so far.
Why is TikTok being investigated by the EU over Romania's elections?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
Why is the EU investigating TikTok over the elections in Romania?
Well in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, there were suddenly, just days before the election, over 25,000 TikTok accounts that suddenly appeared. And they seemed to be supporting, very heavily, the rather sudden far-right candidate who had quite a result in that particular election that has subsequently been annulled. So it makes sense to investigate what really happened and who was behind it.
What is the new French prime minister doing in order to resolve the political crisis of the country?
Early days. He hasn't even presented his government as of yet. But I would guess that he will try to have a dialogue both with the elements of the moderate left and the moderate right to see if he can get a budget through. He is an experienced operator on the French political scene. Perhaps less determined in terms of policies than Michel Barnier was, but let's see. I think he'll present his policy program by mid-January, and there we'll be able to judge somewhat more clearly what prospects he has.
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Can Syria rebuild to welcome returning refugees?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from San Francisco, United States.
with all of the millions of Syrian refugees that you find in Europe, what's got to be the consequences for them of the fall of the Assad regime?
Well, the first thing that's happened is that European countries have imposed new asylum applications from Syria. That's fairly logical. But the bigger question is, of course, to which is that it will be possible for these people to return. Very many of them want to. There have been a huge number of people who've already returned, primarily from Turkey. But that's going to be dependent upon stability in the governance of Syria. That's still an open question for that. And secondly, economic reconstruction. That is both humanitarian aid and then lifting eventually the economic sanctions so that there is the possibility of bringing the country back again and people having the possibility to go back. Let's see, let's hope, and let's work on that.
What's the nature of the big agreement that is now being concluded with the European Union and the Mercosur countries of South America?
It's been negotiated for a very long time. It's a free trade agreement. It's a partnership agreement. It is going to be the biggest such in the world. It's two huge economies. Significant benefits in reducing trade and opening up for more of trade to the benefit of the European economy, to the benefit of the economies of the Latin American countries. There's still opposition to it in some European countries, notably France. That has to do with the French farmers fearing competition from more competitive Brazilian perhaps beef or whatever it is. That, has to be said, is something that is good for the European consumers. So slight battle ahead inside the European Union, but hopefully it will go through. And as I said, the biggest such deal that the world has seen so far.
What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Parma, Italy.
First question, obviously, is what's happening in France?
The Barnier government didn't last more than 57 days. It was brought down by the populists of the right and the populists of the left. And Barnier tried to do what needs to be done. Bring the French budget under control. They have a deficit of roughly 6% of GDP. That's double what is allowed under the European Union rules and they were headed to 7%. He had proposed a budget of tax cuts and expenditure cuts, take it down to 5%, which is too high anyhow, and brought down. So what will happen now? Well, Marine Le Pen would like to get rid of Macron. I think that's unlikely to happen in the short perspective anyhow. And Macron, the president, will have to find a new prime minister and a new government. That will take its time. And from the wider European perspective, of course, less than ideal. We have an extremely weak government in Germany heading for elections and likely to lose that particular election. We now have a situation where France doesn't have any functioning government either, and we have things happening on the other side of the Atlantic.
Second question, is there any way for the European Union and other Europeans to influence the course of events in Georgia?
Well, one would hope so, but I think prospects are not particularly good. We have an increasingly seemingly authoritarian, I would call it, government leaning towards some sort of, call it, Putin-esque regime, consolidating power using violence, have evidently falsified and rigged elections to a very large extent, and intending to stay in power. And now, we have a fairly significant popular opposition developing on the streets of not only Tbilisi, but several other Georgian cities. Will that result in violence? Will that result in some sort of accommodation? Will that result in it all being repressed? We don't know. EU will have to, and America as well, contemplate sanctions and other measures in a fairly short period of time in order to have any possibility of influencing the course of events. Otherwise, I fear the prospects are rather grim.