Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A protester holds a portrait of former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont during a protest in front of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
What We're Watching: Catalan separatist off the hook, Biden's special counsel, Oz-PNG deal, Czech election, nukes for South Korea?
Spanish justice gives up on Catalan fugitive
After trying for more than five years to bring fugitive ex-Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont to trial for sedition, on Thursday a Spanish judge threw in the towel and dropped the charge. Why? The left-wing government of PM Pedro Sánchez has watered down the crime of sedition so much that it no longer covers what Puigdemont did in Oct. 2017: declare Catalonia an independent republic before skipping town when he was about to get arrested. And why did Sánchez tweak the law? Because he needs the votes of Catalan separatist parties in the national parliament to stay in power (which also explains why he pardoned the other politicians who tried to secede along with Puigdemont.) The judge's decision has big political implications in an election year. On the one hand, it's vindication for the Catalan independence movement, which has been losing steam since its failed secession bid. But on the other, it's a poison pill for Sánchez, whom the the Spanish right has long accused of pandering to Catalan separatists. The PM will get a sense of what Spanish voters think of his Catalonia policy in local and regional elections in late May, a dress rehearsal for a general vote in December.
Biden gets a special counsel, too
US Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday appointed a special counsel to lead the investigation into the discovery of two batches of classified files allegedly taken by President Joe Biden when he was VP. The White House has promised full cooperation. Garland has followed his playbook from a similar probe involving former President Donald Trump, who stashed 300+ classified files from the White House at his Mar-a-Lago pad and gave the Feds a hard time about it. While Garland’s move is unsurprising, the appointment of the special counsel can hurt Biden in two ways. First, it gives Republicans fodder to investigate the president in the House, regardless of Trump's own mishandling of sensitive government information. Second — and perhaps more importantly — it might mess with the Justice Department's own case against Trump and weaken the political argument to prosecute him as a presidential candidate in 2024. Even if the probe ends up not recommending charges for Biden, expect it to drag on for months and for the GOP to make a big stink about the whole thing. On another note, seriously, what's up with US presidents/veeps and classified files? Is it so hard to leave office without taking your past homework with you? Let us know what you think.
Oz & PNG working on security agreement
It's an open market for security pacts in the Pacific. Nine months after China clinched a controversial deal with the Solomon Islands, Australia is negotiating its own with Papua New Guinea and expecting to sign a security pact by June. This comes at a time when the US and its allies in the region are worried about Beijing's growing clout in a part of the world the West has long neglected. The leaders of the two countries promised transparency to contrast with China's secrecy, but so far the Aussies are keeping the details as much under wraps as the Chinese did. Regardless, the talks are quite a milestone for Australia-PNG relations given the messy legacy of Canberra's colonial rule. What's more, striking a deal would be a big win for Australia in its race to counter China because PNG has a lot of natural resources — fossil fuels, minerals, you name it — that Beijing is eager to get its hands on. We'll keep an eye on this in case the deal has any effect on Australia-China ties, now enjoying a warm-ish spell after years of frostiness.
Czech elections: round one, fight!
Czechs vote this weekend in the first round of a presidential election featuring three very distinct frontrunners. Leading the polls is Petr Pavel (“Peter Paul”!), a retired general and former top NATO official who’s running as a safe, Europhile pair of hands and a strong supporter of Ukraine. Just behind him is Andrej Babiš, a Eurosceptic populist agriculture tycoon who was prime minister from 2017-2021. Babiš has been dogged by allegations of corruption, though he was cleared this week by a Czech court. His ANO party, popular with older and more rural voters, remains the largest in parliament. Lastly, economics professor Danuše Nerudová, a progressive on social issues, has highlighted the importance of electing her as the country’s first female president. Czech presidents have limited powers, but they play a role in forming governments and represent the country abroad. Outgoing President Miloš Zeman, an ally of Babiš, fomented controversy throughout his 10 years in power, not least because of his overt sympathies for Russia. No one is expected to win outright in the first round — a runoff will be held in late January.
Wait, why did “Czechoslovakia” split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia 30 years ago? Read our recent explainer here.
South Korea mulls nuclear weapons ... again!
Nuclear rhetoric is heating up again on the Korean Peninsula, but this time the push is coming from South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol says that if the threat from the North continues, Seoul could develop its own nukes, or push the US to deploy them. Washington pulled its tactical nukes from South Korea in the 1990s, and it is unlikely to redeploy them. But Yoon isn’t coming out of left field. He has serious public support for developing nukes, and he’s not the first South Korean leader to have such ambitions. But considering the last time a South Korean leader proposed nuclear proliferation was in the 1970s, Yoon is the first one in decades to do so. He was elected last year with a mandate for a tough stance against Pyongyang, which has been amping up its missile tests and even flying drones into the South. Analysts say it’s unlikely that Yoon will actually go down the nuclear route. It’s more likely this stance could trigger China to convince its friends in the North to tone down the aggression, while also possibly push the US to extend its deterrence umbrella to the South.
People wave separatist Catalan flags and placards during a demonstration following the imprisonment of Jordi Sanchez and Jordi Cuixart in Barcelona, Spain.
Why is Spain pardoning Catalan leaders jailed for sedition?
On Tuesday, Spain's leftwing coalition government will pardon nine Catalan politicians jailed over their failed attempt to secede from the rest of the country less than four years ago. It's a huge gamble for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who's fighting for his political survival against a majority of popular opinion, an opposition on the rise, the courts, and even part of the Catalan independence movement.
What's all the fuss about? The politicians were sentenced in December 2019 to lengthy prison terms for first organizing in October 2017 a referendum on independence, illegal under the Spanish constitution, and later unilaterally declaring independence. The national government responded to Catalonia's short-lived independence bid, which triggered Spain's most serious political crisis in decades, by (briefly) suspending the region's autonomy and arresting many of the separatist leaders.
Catalonia is a prosperous region in northeastern Spain with a long history of nationalist sentiment. Popular support for independence in Catalonia (source Spanish) has risen significantly since Spain's economic crisis in the early 2010s, but it remains just short of 50 percent. However, the country's political representation system — which favors nationalist parties — has allowed pro-independence coalitions to rule there for almost a decade, putting a lot of pressure on Madrid to allow them to vote on breaking away from Spain.
The PM knows the pardons are deeply unpopular. Just a week ago, tens of thousands of Spaniards who defend Spanish unity against Catalonia's dream of secession gathered in Madrid to protest the decision, calling out the PM for pandering to Catalan nationalists. Most Spaniards oppose granting clemency to those who attempted to break away from Spain: a recent survey found that more than 60 percent are against the move. (By contrast, roughly 70 percent of Catalans say it's the right thing to do.)
So, why is he doing this now? Sánchez, who needs the votes of Catalan nationalist parties in the Spanish parliament to stay in power, likely hopes the pardons can keep his already fragile coalition government intact long enough to get most of the population vaccinated against COVID and for the economy to rebound — thanks mainly to EU pandemic recovery funds — ahead of Spain's next general election in December 2023. He also hopes the Catalan "problem" might fade away as soon as Spaniards go on summer vacation.
But his critics know the pardons are hurting Sánchez. Since the government signaled its intention to grant the pardons, the ruling PSOE party — half of whose voters oppose them — has been slipping in the polls and losing ground to the PP, the main conservative opposition party. Both the PP and the far-right Vox party, which rose to prominence in the aftermath of the 2017 crisis because it advocates for a much tougher line on Catalonia, will surely gain more support if the current row over the pardons drags on.
Also, Spain's top court, which oversaw the months-long sedition trial, has unanimously rejected the pardons because the politicians have shown no remorse. Although that ruling is non-binding, the court's opinion will be cited in future legal challenges that could go all the way to the constitutional court, which will have the final say and could send the politicians back to prison.
What's more, the pardons are not enough for Catalan separatists. Pere Aragonès, the head of Catalonia's regional government, has welcomed the reprieves as a "first step" toward reconciliation. But he insists on an amnesty that would completely absolve the "political prisoners," as pro-independence Catalans refer to the jailed politicians, of all responsibility over actions that, in their opinion, were political in nature.
Meanwhile, more hardcore separatist leaders say they won't make any concessions until Madrid grants Catalans the right to decide their own future in a legal and binding plebiscite, similar to how the UK allowed Scots to vote on independence in 2014. One of them is the influential Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president and current MEP who fled Spain to avoid prosecution and now lives in Belgium.
Either way, it's a bold move for Sánchez, who faces an impossible choice. On the one hand, he's making an unpopular decision that could hurt him and the PSOE politically. On the other hand, his minority government cannot survive without parliamentary support from Catalan nationalist parties.
Looking ahead. Those who oppose the pardons fear they will only encourage pro-independence Catalan leaders to try again to secede in the near future. But Sánchez is playing the long game, and Catalan nationalists know they have a lot to lose with him out of office.