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Georgia’s next target: LGBTQ+ freedoms
Pride Month is sure to look different in Georgia this year – and may soon disappear forever.
This week, the Eurasian country – not the US state – introduced legislation aimed at curtailing civil liberties for LGBTQ+ people. The draft text includes a ban on same-sex marriages, same-sex adoptions, gender-affirming care, endorsement of same-sex relationships at gatherings and educational institutions, plus any same-sex depictions in media.
Over a decade ago, the South Caucasus republic became one of the few post-Soviet states to enshrine anti-LGBTQ+ discrimination into law. So, why the 180-degree change?
The Georgian Dream ruling party, in power since 2012, has been slowly shifting the country’s alignment away from Brussels and toward Moscow. This year, thousands protested Georgia Dream’s foreign agent law, which opponents say is identical to a law used by the Kremlin to crush dissent. Huge demonstrations and a presidential veto couldn’t stop the bill from passing.
But don’t expect mass protests against the similarly Kremlin-aligned anti-LGBTQ+ legislation. Tbilisi has repeatedly canceled Pride Marches after right-wing protesters violently stormed the celebrations, and much of Georgia’s majority Orthodox Christian society is likely to support the measures in the name of national and religious identity.
Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born regional analyst at Eurasia Group, says the Georgian Dream party is pushing this legislation to serve them politically and shore up conservative support.
Without a strong coalition to oust Georgian Dream, she says “they will continue to adopt and adapt the Russian playbook in a way that they hope will keep them in power for as long as possible.”
Re-elected head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov attends an inauguration ceremony in Grozny, Russia October 5, 2021.
Pancreas vs. Putin: the Kremlin’s terminal Chechnya problem
Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-backed dictator of Chechnya, is reportedly dying inside – literally.
The Russian indy publication “Novaya Gazeta Europe” says the 47-year-old strongman is suffering from a terminal pancreatic condition, and that the Kremlin is scrambling to work out succession plans.
The background, briefly: After crushing a Chechen separatist uprising in the 1990s, the Kremlin installed Kadyrov’s father Akhmat – a moderate Imam and former separatist commander himself – as boss. He was assassinated in 2004, and Ramzan took over.
Backed by a quasi-private army of Islamist paramilitaries, and lots of Kremlin money, the eccentric, pugilistic, large-living Kadyrov has ruled with an iron fist, delivering stability at the cost of ferocious repression.
Putin’s problem: keeping things cool in the North Caucasus – a restive region of widespread poverty and kaleidoscopic ethnic, sectarian, and political rivalries – is essential for the Kremlin. A power vacuum there could quickly spiral.
Novaya Gazeta says the Kremlin is grooming Kadyrov’s top military commander, Apti Alaudinov, to succeed him. But any transition would be an opportunity ripe for destabilizing power grabs.
In all, Kadyrov’s untimely demise poses an age-old problem for Putin: When you make a Faustian bargain, what do you do when the devil dies?
Other pressing issues to discuss in Munich
Much of the media attention on the Munich Security Conference will focus, understandably, on the Russia-Ukraine standoff. But other important security questions will be discussed. Here are three of the most important.
The Balkans. Bosnia now faces its most worrisome threat since the end of the Yugoslav civil war in 1995. To keep warring factions apart, the peace agreement ending that war created a special enclave within Bosnia for ethnic Serbs. The leader of that enclave, Milorad Dodik, has threatened secession over a new law banning the denial of the genocide that Serbs inflicted on Bosnian Muslims during that conflict. A breakup of Bosnia could trigger a new war.
The Caucasus. Ukraine is not the only former Soviet Republic weighing the costs of war. Armenia and Azerbaijan have long been locked in a struggle over control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave inside Azerbaijan that’s populated mainly by ethnic Armenians. In 2020, the frozen conflict turned hot, with Turkey and Russia becoming directly involved when hostilities erupted. Following major gains for Azerbaijan, the guns have gone silent, but a ceasefire has not brought confidence that peace can be kept, and the status of prisoners is making its way through international courts.
The Sahel. In some West African countries, the inability of governments to respond effectively to jihadist emergencies has frustrated both military leaders and civilians caught in the crossfire. One result of this instability is a series of recent coups that have toppled governments across the region. France, the former colonial power, has long been a major player in the Sahel. As part of a plan called Operation Barkhane, French troops have tried to lead a regional effort to quell the insurgency, but lack of success has left West Africans angry at Paris and French voters unhappy. As a result, France has pulled back, leaving the EU to debate how to manage a problem that is destabilizing an entire region – with blowback for European security.