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Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire may not hold but direct war is unlikely
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
Let's go. Number one. What are the chances the Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire holds?
Well, I mean, in this environment, a hold is virtually zero. There's very little restraint on the ground. Local, military leaders, especially in the autonomous region of Karabakh, aren't necessarily listening to everything that the Armenian government has to say. One shot, one drone leads to more. And, there is no process by which the Armenians and the Azeri leadership can say that, "They're winning, yet." And so, that makes it hard. But the fact that the Russians are engaging, we had trilateral talks with the Armenians and the Azeris, the Russians matter the most here. They're the ones that have ensured, some level of frozen instability between the two. There's been significant behind the scene's engagement in Moscow with diplomats, from both sides. And, I think the Russians have made very clear to the Turks at this point, that the Turks are not going to get a leadership seat in the Minsk group, broader negotiations. And, that the Russians would not tolerate a broader expansion of the war that threatened Armenian territorial integrity itself, as opposed to Nagorno-Karabakh. If they were to do that, the Russians would come in and defend Armenia. So, a lot of people are dying, certainly in the high hundreds, at this point. We've got nearly a hundred thousand additional people displaced. This is a horrible thing to see happen, but it's not the tipping point of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
I do think that there needs to be new reinvigorated negotiations. The fact is, that the Armenians presently hold, not just Karabakh, which is the territory that had been given to Azerbaijan by Stalin but is mostly Armenian. And, that was taken by the Armenians after the Soviet Union collapsed, that's not going to change. That's kind of like the Crimea situation between Russia and Ukraine. But there's also been territories around Karabakh. There are Azeri territories that the Armenians have occupied as a buffer zone. And, there has to be an ability to get off of that, to negotiate a way from that. I also think that if there are more people killed on both sides, not only is it harder for both sides to climb down, but the potential for the Armenian say to formally recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenian territory, which makes the Azeris harder to climb down their own leadership, and weakens, presently if that's real. So, there is positioning, it's not just about the fact that this is still going to be a frozen conflict, and we know what the contours of the eventual solution will be. But, it's also that you have two leaders in place, that can't be seen as losing, these of these, the other on an issue that is incredibly important for them. I don't see an either one has provided significant diplomatic support, looks like some mercenaries, and some direct military support, but I can't see in any way, the Turkish military directly intervening on the Azeri side. So again, even though this is horribly damaging from humanitarian perspective, I would personally be really stunned to see this lead into Armenia, Azerbaijan direct war.
Okay. What's happening with Britain's new coronavirus lockdown measures?
Well, as you probably know, the United Kingdom has some of the highest levels of cases, per capita in the world, right now. This was a UK that originally was letting the virus rip through the country, and just going to protect the older people. That didn't work. They had to lock down. They then started opening up, and the cases have now gone up a lot. Boris Johnson has had to start locking down. Again, they didn't want to, they said, "They weren't going to." They now have this three-tier system between medium, high, and very high of alert systems. And, that's going across the country. But it's really hurting the poor North the most, that have the biggest transmission per capita, and are being locked down the hardest. Obviously, that's creating an enormous amount of agitation against Boris Johnson, both inside his own conservative party; and also providing more support for the labor party in the country. He doesn't have to run for elections anytime soon, but this is a real problem. If you are Boris Johnson and the UK right now, it's going to hurt their economy much worse, than pretty much any other economy in Europe, certainly more than the United States. Also, gives him more incentive, the silver lining, not to accept a no deal hard out. They're in World Trade Organization land, with Europeans at the end of this year. So, a little more likely they end up with a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU. Always got to be a silver lining.
Does the Taliban really support Donald Trump?
Well, I mean support. Do they like American leaders? No, of course they don't. They don't like the Americans. They would rather, the Americans leave. They like Trump more than Biden, because Trump's the guy that's been pushing to end the war, as far, as fast as possible, even against the interests of the military leaders, and advisors inside the Pentagon; as well as many American allies. Some have claimed that Trump is cutting and running, but of course this war has been going on for decades now. Most Americans really tired of it; the costs, the lack of success, the human costs. I mean, all of this is deeply problematic. And so, if you're the Taliban, and the United States has facilitated both direct talks, multilateral talks, a peace deal, but is also saying, "Irrespective of what happens, we're ending the war, we're pulling out." Well, if you're the Taliban, all you have to do is hunker down, pretend you're engaged in negotiations. And once the Americans are out, you can do what you want. So absolutely, the Taliban are happier with Trump, than they would be with Biden.
Now, there has been a big flap about whether or not the Taliban endorsed President Trump. I don't think the Taliban is really in the practice of formally endorsing leaders. But there was a CBS interview a few days ago, with the Taliban leadership and their spokesperson that said that, "Trump would be better for them." And, there was a senior official in the Taliban that said that, "He wants Trump to win," even though originally that was reported as the Taliban formal spokesperson said that, "They endorsed Trump." So, I mean, there's a lot of noise around this. None of it really matters. But I understand why it made a bunch of news. And, the reality is that the United States is getting out of Afghanistan, and President Trump has done more to accomplish that, than others. Not a surprise, the Taliban finds that that kind of a vacuum is useful. But at the end of the day, the relationship between any U.S. President and the Taliban, is going to be pretty strange. By the way, kind of like the Chinese, kind of like the Russians, kind of like the Iranians, it's interesting that individual U.S. Presidents may say very different things, but their ability to fundamentally move the needle, is a lot less on these issues. There a lot more constrained, than is widely reported.
Kyrgyzstan unrest; Trump better than ever post-COVID
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
Number one, what is going on in Kyrgyzstan?
Otherwise was known as the Kyrgyz Republic. Well, massive demonstrations, a lot of violence, dozens injured, one dead, on the back of an election, parliamentary elections, where two parties that support the president said they won with a lot of claims of vote buying and corruption and massive outcry. And they've basically now overturned the result of the elections because the country was going to be in complete disarray. Not the first time in the Kyrgyz Republic there've been big demonstrations across the country to remove the outcomes of elections. We've seen presidents removed in the past. In this case, they actually got the former president who had been held in arrest for politicized charges has been removed from power. He's not saying he wants to be president, and the existing president isn't planning on stepping down, but it's clearly going to be messy and some time before we figure out how we redraw power in the Kyrgyz Republic.
It's not a very large country. It's only a few million people. It's in the mountains. It's basically locked up between China and Russia. So geopolitically, it doesn't have a lot of importance. It's mostly aligned with Kazakhstan next door, but still it is one more place there's just an awful lot of tension in the former Soviet Union, Russian country neighbors that the Russians think they should have the most influence over, and turns out it's really hard to maintain that extended presence. They're not happy about that. The Kremlin is not.
What's the update with the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Well, similarly, here's a case where you've got a country, Armenia, that had a revolution. It was peaceful. They kicked out a corrupt kleptocracy. They're now being run by a democratic government. That democratic government still very much supports the Kremlin in terms of their trade deals, in terms of their intelligence sharing, and in terms of their defense relationship, they have a defense pact, to defend each other if one is invaded. Obviously, it's pretty asymmetrical because Armenia is all of five million people and landlocked, but nonetheless, didn't change that.
But the Russians aren't as happy be about the Armenians because the Russians see that Armenia is going its own way. It's more interested in civil society and Russia obviously is not. And so now for over a week, the Russians have been pretty much standing on the sidelines while there's been fairly significant attacks into mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh, an area that's overwhelmingly populated by Armenians, but that was historically part of the Azerbaijan Republic and the Azeris claim it as their territory.
There are ongoing negotiations, it's disputed territory, but it is now a military fight. Everyone's calling for ceasefire, except for Turkey, supporting Azerbaijan. And that's really kind of unfortunate because the Turks have a lot of military capacity, the Azeris have increased their military capacity, and the Armenians right now at least are pretty much all by themselves. So, brings back these historical concerns of genocide, which the Turks committed against the Armenian people some hundred years ago, and which the Turkish government has never admitted to. This has the potential to get a lot worse. And the news is between hundreds and even thousands dead on both sides at this point, and not getting much coverage at all here in the United States.
Okay. Final question. Will Trump change his views on COVID after contracting the virus?
Not at all. If anything, I mean, in Brazil after Bolsonaro contracted the virus, he said, "It's just a little flu. It's not a big deal." He was saying that before. In the United States, if anything, Trump is saying, actually this is, he's doubling down. He's saying, "I feel better than I did 20 years ago. I defeated the virus." I mean, I think it's very clear that within a week, Trump will be back, not only does he want to go to the debates, but he wants to be back on the campaign trail, and he wants to be back on the trail not wearing a mask, back on the trail with large masses, live, indoors. And we'll see. I mean, of course there'll be incredible outcry from people that can't stand Trump, but that's not new. I mean, as long as the two sides are completely in different information and media spheres, I think that this Trump strategy is not going to change.
The problem for Trump is that he's not getting an electoral college majority that way. He's actually dropped a point, two points, in key swing states over the last week. It's still early. We still need a lot of polls to come out to see how his handling of coronavirus is affecting the polls. But in Brazil they only picked up Bolsonaro a month later because the Brazilian population was having less of a hard time from coronavirus. In the United States those numbers still are persisting. They're not softening anywhere near what people would want them to. And it's going to be hard for them because Trump himself is not leaning into policies that would make that so. So what does it mean? It means his attitude is absolutely not changing and we've got four more weeks of everyone pulling their hair out in both sides of the political spectrum.
Armenia & Azerbaijan at war as Russia watches; anti-mask protests in Europe
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
First of all, what is going on in the Caucuses?
Well, it's a war. You'd never know it from following American press, because of course, we're only talking about Trump and the elections. But Armenia and Azerbaijan are actively fighting each other. Over 100 are dead so far, including civilians. There is a lot of fog of war misinformation going on. Reuters piece that seems that there are some mercenaries, including Syrian mercenaries on the ground that were in Azerbaijan that were paid for by Turkey. The Armenians, as of today, are claiming that Turkish fighter jet downed an Armenian war plane. Ankara is saying, no, they didn't. The Iranians are being accused of transferring military equipment to Armenia. The Iranians are saying, no, they didn't.
Social media, of course, this war is playing out very aggressively in Turkish supported Azeri social media, in Armenian social media. So far, not a lot from the Russians themselves who are in a sticky position. They basically provide military equipment to both sides. They have a defense pact with Armenia, but since the Velvet Revolution in Armenia, where Armenia is fully democratic now, is much less corrupt and is more independent from Russia, and that is estranged a little bit. And the Russians, they want to have overwhelming influence in the entirety of the Caucuses and the North Caucuses. And that means they want to be able to pull the strings.
And a level of frozen instability between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not bad for Russia. So they don't necessarily want to come in immediately on Armenia's side, but they also don't want the Turks to be supporting Azerbaijan, take a bunch of territory. And suddenly Azerbaijan is inextricably in Turkey's pocket. So, interestingly, like Belarus right now, Russia definitely has preferences, but is on the sidelines and would rather not have to pay very much to get this resolved in a way that would be favorable for it. So that's the situation.
As European coronavirus cases rise, so do anti-mask protests. Is this the same story that played out in the US this summer?
Not exactly. In the United States, anti-mask wearing was promoted by President Trump and by many around him. You've seen Dr. Atlas, for example, who Trump likes on television, saying the jury is out on wearing masks. President Trump has organized a number of mask optional rallies where really there's a fair amount of peer pressure saying if you're patriotic, if you support Trump, you don't really wear a mask.
We've seen at the White House ceremonies as well, everybody gets tested, but the tests aren't necessarily as accurate as you'd like and a lot of people not wearing masks. So there's definitely been a sense that if you are on one side of the political debate in the United States, you can show your patriotism by not wearing a mask, which is really stupid and I wish they wouldn't do that. On the other hand, in Europe, it's mostly being driven by social media. Some of it is libertarian don't tread on me. Some of it is conspiratorial, the idea that masks can hurt you and people that's deep state forces are trying to convince you to take away all of your liberties, same kind of people that want to put chips in your brain and the rest.
And by the way, people do want to put chips in your brain. Look at Elon Musk, for example, he's got a chip in a pig brain, and he's gearing up to do one himself at some point soon. But that's very different from saying that you shouldn't be wearing a mask. In Europe, it's really not that political. The government figures, whether they're left-wing or right-wing, have pretty much all come out in favor of mask wearing. They haven't necessarily mandated it, though some countries have. But they certainly are leading much more with epidemiology and science.
So in that regard, these protests are less important. They're less impactful. And they're one of the reasons why Europe's deaths, even as their case count per capita is close to that of the United States, their death count compared to the US is considerably lower. And that's behavior and that's lack of politicization of behavior. It's the smarter thing to do. Moose agrees. If dogs could get coronavirus, he'd be wearing a mask. There's no question.
This week, the world surpassed one million reported coronavirus deaths. What's the real death count?
It is almost certainly higher. It is almost certainly higher because the Chinese have clearly obscured at the least tens of thousands of deaths in the early days of coronavirus. Perhaps more than that. The Iranians obscured lots of coronavirus deaths. The Russians classified a lot of deaths as just regular flu, as opposed to coronavirus. Suddenly, they had this incredible spike of people dying from regular flu, while very few died of coronavirus in the early days. So I think that the politics have largely been in favor of undercounting coronavirus deaths, not over counting them.
Certainly, it is true that there are a lot of people that are classified as coronavirus deaths that have plenty of other pre-existing conditions. That's not an over-count. If you're morbidly obese and you get coronavirus and you die, you have died of coronavirus. If you hadn't caught coronavirus, you would still be unhealthy. You would still be morbidly obese, but you would be alive. Right? And so those are properly classified as coronavirus deaths. And for all of the wackos that are saying that only 6% of the CDC 200 plus thousand deaths are really deaths from coronavirus, stop. You're hurting people. You're getting more people sick and dying, and that's a bad thing to do.
It is absolutely true that there is a real trade- off between fighting coronavirus through lockdown and quarantine and having the ability to get the economy run. And more people will die if you lock down the economy. More people will die of depression. More people will die of starvation. It's a problem. Also, fewer people will die because there won't be as many traffic incidents if nobody is on the road. No one seems to talk about that one. But it is not about whether or not this 205,000 from the CDC is right. Those numbers in the US are pretty accurate and we should be treating them as such. Numbers from countries that historically get the numbers wrong all the time, those are bad numbers. We should treat those as such too. Have an asterisk. That's the way to do it.