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Trap Women's Final - Chateauroux Shooting Centre, Deols, France - July 31, 2024. Adriana Ruano Oliva of Guatemala in action.
Hard Numbers: Guatemala wins first-ever gold medal, F-16s fly in Ukraine, CAR meets on mpox outbreak, China’s housing market declines
1: Adriana Ruano wonGuatemala its first-ever gold medal at the Olympics in shooting on Wednesday. Going into the 2024 Games, there were69 countries that had never won a Summer Olympics medal and another 37 that had never won gold. We’ll be watching to see how much shorter that list gets as the Games progress.
60: American-made F-16 fighter jets have begun to arrive in Ukraine and are expected to give Kyiv’s air defenses a much-needed boost in its fight against Russia. Although the US approved the delivery last August, it won’t be providing any of its own planes. Instead, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have committed to providing Ukraine with more than 60 of them over the coming months in what is likely to be a slow trickle of deliveries.
20,000: Central African Republic officials say they are meeting with the governments of neighboring countries to stop the spread of mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, which has been rapidly spreading in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, and Nigeria. The DRC alone has seen20,000 cases and more than 1,000 deaths from mpox, mainly among children, since the start of 2023.
20: In a rocky start to the third quarter, data shows a continued decline for China’s property sector. Transactions among the country’s top 100 real estate developers fell20% last month from a year ago, equivalent to about $38.7 billion. On a month-over-month basis, sales dropped 36%.
FILE PHOTO: Russian officers from the Wagner Group are seen around Central African president Faustin-Archange Touadera, as they are part of the presidential security system during the referendum campaign to change the constitution and remove term limits, in Bangui, Central African Republic July 16, 2023.
Have gun, will travel? Russia wants you in Africa
Moscow has reportedly begun recruiting 20,000 soldiers to be deployed to at least five Russia-aligned African countries to replace Wagner Group mercenaries previously stationed there as Russia deepens its influence on the continent.
Just how many recruits “Africa Corps” can drum up is not clear (nor is why they named themselves after a Nazi unit, Afrika Korps, that got its arse kicked up and down Libya before surrendering en masse). Many Wagner fighters took contracts with the Ministry of Defense after an aborted revolt by former leader Yevgeny Prigozhin resulted in his death and the company’s disbandment, and those with experience in Africa may be rolled into the new unit. Then again, with Moscow trying to find 250,000 more men to throw into Ukraine, some recruits may figure that sweating it out in the Sahel beats getting shelled in a rat-infested trench.
The troops will provide security for coup leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as well as the House of Representatives government in Libya (not recognized by the United Nations) and the Central African Republic, which has drifted toward Moscow since 2016. In exchange, Russia will help themselves to Wagner’s former commercial fiefdom on the continent, including potentially lucrative mining operations producing gold, diamonds, and valuable industrial minerals.
But it’s a gamble: Wagner’s force in Africa was only ever a fraction of the size of this putative Africa Corps, and as a nominally private company, Moscow could shrug its shoulders when Wagner fighters committed atrocities. Now, the Russian flag would be undeniably flying over the murder, torture, and rape of civilians – but color us skeptical that the potential international opprobrium will hold them back one bit.Wagner Group guards are seen around CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadera during the referendum campaign in Bangui.
Wagner to guard CAR referendum
On Sunday, the Central African Republic holds a referendum on its new constitution, which (surprise!) removes presidential term limits. With violence all but assured, the vote will be protected by the army ... and a bunch of foreign mercenaries from a group that's become a household name.
Fresh off its failed mutiny in Russia, the notorious Wagner Group will act as President Faustin-Archange Touaderá's praetorian guard to ensure the plebiscite goes off without a hitch in CAR, a resource-rich yet dirt-poor and chronically unstable nation. Wagner fighters have been deployed in CAR since 2018, and they helped Touaderá get reelected two years ago by scaring off rebels (he showed his gratitude by building a statue honoring "Russian" soldiers in Bangui, the capital).
Still, with its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin now out of favor with Vladimir Putin, Wagner's future in CAR is uncertain. Although the president needs the mercs to keep the rebels in check and Bangui safe, the Kremlin — which has de facto wrested control of Wagner away from Prigozhin — might decide to send its forces to Ukraine or wherever else Moscow needs boots on the ground.
Either way, whatever happens in CAR will be closely monitored in Burkina Faso and Mali, two African countries run by military juntas where Wagner has contracts — and Putin has interests.A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.
Rebels, rivals, and proxies in the Central African Republic
A bitter war is raging again inside a country that is simultaneously one of the world's richest and poorest — and outside players are part of it.
Last December, the Central African Republic, a landlocked nation of 5 million people that holds vast resources of minerals and precious metals, held a contentious presidential election. It was won by the sitting president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, who has held power since 2016.
But before the vote, former CAR strongman François Bozizé returned from exile to run. After a court disqualified him because he faces war crimes charges at home and UN sanctions, an alliance of militias took up arms against the government, with Bozizé's support.
In the weeks since the election, battles have raged between government forces and the coalition of pro-Bozizé militias, which controls vast swathes of the country. In recent days, the rebels have begun cutting off food supply routes to the capital, Bangui.
The back story. Bozizé himself came to power in a coup in 2003 but was toppled a decade later by an alliance of mostly Muslim militias. (Muslims account for about 15 percent of the population, and Christians about half.) After several years of vicious fighting between the remnants of those groups and predominantly Christian warlords loyal to Bozizé, Touadéra was elected president in 2016. In 2019, a peace agreement was signed, but it lasted barely a year until the election drama began late last year.
Outside players are involved. The standoff between the government and the rebels is shot through with high geopolitics, as outside players scramble to fortify their influence over a country rich in diamonds, gold, and other precious minerals.
On the side of the government forces are 13,000 UN peacekeepers as well as soldiers from Rwanda, which has struck natural resource deals with Bangui in recent years, and Russia. The Russian contingent includes several hundred military trainers, but also mercenaries who have provided strong backing to the Touadéra government as part of Moscow's broader push to establish lucrative business and security relationships in Africa.
Meanwhile, the pro-Bozizé rebels appear to enjoy at least tacit backing from Chad, whose well-trained militias have made it something of a regional power broker in recent years as it actively seeks to play a greater role in the continent's security challenges.
Lastly, there is France, the former colonial power, which had troops in CAR as recently as 2016. Paris notionally supports the central government — earlier this month President Emmanuel Macron sent French warplanes roaring over contested villages as a show of force meant to intimidate rebel groups. But Paris is now in the awkward position of supporting a government that won elections marred by bloodshed and which controls only a handful of areas in a country wracked by increasing violence.
This is a humanitarian crisis, and not just for CAR. Despite — or in part because of — its natural resource riches, CAR is one of the poorest countries in Africa, with a per capita GDP of just $510. Years of conflict have left its people perpetually in humanitarian crisis, with as many as 1 million pushed from their homes over the past decade alone, and nearly half the population dependent on foreign assistance.
Now, post-election violence has already forced as many as 100,000 to flee. Many of them are seeking refuge in neighboring countries like Sudan, Chad, Cameroon, and Democratic Republic of Congo, some of which are struggling with refugee crises and internal displacements of their own. That's why unrest in the CAR matters for millions of people in one of Africa's most unstable regions.
The longer the conflict drags on — and there are no signs either side is backing down — the worse it will be, not only for the CAR, but for its neighbors too.What We’re Watching: EU vaccination campaign, Indian farm bill talks, two elections in Africa
EU rolls out vaccines: As COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to rise throughout the European Union, the bloc on Sunday officially kicked off its campaign to vaccinate roughly 450 million EU residents against the disease. But even as shoulders are bared for the needle across the Union, two fights are already brewing about the process. First, Italy is concerned that Germany may be getting more than its fair share of the precious shots based on its population — as agreed to by EU member states — because a German company, BioNTech, jointly developed the EU-approved vaccine with US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. Second, problems with maintaining the drugs at the required ultra-cold temperature have already led to vaccination delays in Spain. The challenges now are to ensure all EU member states inoculate their residents at a similar pace, to overcome vaccine skepticism across the bloc, and to avoid shortages while waiting for other vaccine candidates to get approved.
A meeting about a meeting with India's farmers: Leaders of farmers' unions in India are sitting down on Tuesday with officials in a bid to organize yet another round of formal negotiations (the seventh, to be precise) with the government about new agriculture laws that farmers say pose a threat to their livelihoods. Mass protests and sit-ins have been going on for weeks now, led by farmers who worry that the laws — which permit farmers to sell their crops more freely — will put them at the mercy of large agriculture companies that can drive down prices and put them out of business. Talks have so far come to nothing: the government has signaled a willingness to revise the laws, but the farmers seek a complete repeal as a starting point for talks. With roughly 60 percent of India's population dependent on the agriculture sector for income, the issue has emerged as a huge political challenge for the otherwise popular government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Two elections in Africa: The citizens of two long-troubled African nations — the Central African Republic (CAR) and Niger — went to the polls on Sunday in elections seen as a test for democracy amid widespread threats of violence. In the mineral-rich CAR, incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's reelection bid has been overshadowed by the constitutional court's decision to ban his predecessor François Bozizé (ousted six years ago during the country's civil war) from running against him. Armed supporters of both Touadéra and Bozizé have threatened to march on the capital, Bangui, if their candidate doesn't win. Meanwhile, Niger is preparing for its first-ever peaceful transition of power. President Mahamadou Issoufou, who is voluntarily stepping down after two terms, is expected to be succeeded by his handpicked successor Mohamed Bazoum, although two former presidents are also looking to return to power. The wider problem in Niger is fresh attacks by jihadists, who have been wreaking havoc across the country and the entire Sahel region since 2015. We're watching to see if both elections are conducted smoothly, and if the peace holds after results are announced.