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FILE PHOTO: Chadian interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby speaks during the launch of his presidential campaign ahead of the May elections in N'Djamena, Chad April 14, 2024.
Chadians are voting, but don’t expect change
Chad is the first of the coup-ridden Sahel states to move toward democracy. Well, inch toward democracy.
The current frontrunner is Gen. Mahamat Déby, who has been ruling in an interim capacity since his father, former President Idriss Déby, died while fighting rebels in 2021. The elder Déby led a coup in Chad in 1990 and ruled for three decades. His death opened the possibility of a new era in Chadian politics, with the younger Déby promising to hold elections – in which he wouldn’t run – within 18 months.
Three years later, those elections are finally here, and Déby is running after all, following a deadly crackdown on opponents in 2022 that sent many of his rivals into exile. Leading opposition figure Yaya Dillowas killed under murky circumstances in February. Voters told the BBC they had little confidence the election would be conducted fairly.
But don’t expect Washington or Paris to make too big a fuss over janky polls. Unlike the military regimes in Mali and Niger, which have kicked out Western powers, Chad has close relations with France and cooperates with the US military. Thethreat of extremist groups in the region means the great powers’ primary objective is keeping relations stable, though Déby has also been flirting with Moscow in recent months.
Members of civilian joint task force patrol in Maiduguri May 22, 2014. Civilian joint task force are government-sponsored civilian self-defence and community-policing groups within Borno state that some locals said have brought security to Maiduguri, according to local government officials.
Hard Numbers: Nigerian troops killed by gangs, Americans set to leave Niger and Chad, Russia arrests journalists, Zelensky appeals for aid
23: At least 23 members of Nigeria's civilian joint task force were killed Saturday in attacks by militants and an armed kidnapping gang in the northern part of the country. Suspected Islamic State West Africa Province fighters targeted a vehicle with an improvised explosive device in Borno state, killing nine, and another 14 members were ambushed and killed in Sokoto state by gunmen.
1,000: The United States plans to withdraw most of its 1,000 troops from Niger and 100 from Chad amid deteriorating relations with both governments, which are questioning Washington’s counterterrorism role in the region. Earlier this month, Russian trainers arrived in Niger to work with its air force, another sign of the pivot away from the US.
2: Russia has arrested journalists who work with international news outlets. Sergei Karelin, a Russian-Israeli citizen, and Konstantin Gabov, were charged with "extremism" for allegedly aiding opposition leader Alexei Navalny's banned organization. If convicted, they face a minimum of two years in prison.
21: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskymade yet another appeal for more defensive aid, specifically Patriot missile systems, and urged faster delivery following Russian missile strikes on Saturday that targeted energy facilities affecting EU gas supplies. The attacks, which disrupted water supply in Zelenskiy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, saw Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercept 21 out of 34 missiles.Sudanese who fled the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region, cross the border between Sudan and Chad.
UN: Sudan situation is spiraling
Four months after conflict broke out between rival factions in Sudan, the UN warned this week that the situation is spiraling out of control.
The grim statistics: At least 1 million people – roughly the population of Austin, Texas – have fled to neighboring countries, while over 3 million remain displaced inside Sudan, according to UN data.
At least 380,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad, where they languish in refugee camps, while many others have sought refuge in South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Libya – all of which are grappling with their own domestic crises.
The UN now warns that, amid the fighting, medical supplies are scarce and that 100,000 Sudanese women due to give birth in the next 12 weeks may not have access to healthcare facilities.
Recap: Who is fighting whom again? On one side is Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since 2021. That was when the military took over in a violent coup, overthrowing a joint civilian-military government. On the other side is Burhan’s former ally and junta deputy Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who is head of the Rapid Support Forces, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur.
The two sides met in Togo last month for negotiations that yielded no breakthroughs.
The US, EU, Russia, African Union, and Gulf states all have competing interests in resource-rich Sudan (more on that here), which has further complicated mediation efforts. As time goes on and fighting spreads throughout the country – most notably in Darfur – Sudan is developing the hallmarks of a protracted conflict.
Speaking to GZERO Media as the US took over the presidency of the UN Security Council earlier this month, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that the situation in Sudan will be a top priority. Watch the clip here.
A Sudanese girl who fled the conflict in Darfur stands at her makeshift shelter near the border between Sudan and Chad
Another flareup in Western Darfur
As fighting between two rival army factions in Sudan rages on, the spillover effects on the restive Darfur region are getting worse.
The flare-up has drawn in local militias in Western Darfur, resulting in hundreds of deaths in the city of El-Geneina this week alone, while thousands have also been displaced.
Hospitals and markets in the region were also burned down by Arab militias and African insurgent groups that have remained at loggerheads since 2003, when Sudan's then-President Omar al-Bashir waged a deadly crackdown to quash an ethnic revolt, killing some 300,000 people.
Many of those fleeing the violence in Western Darfur are now crossing over into Chad, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis in one of the world’s poorest countries.
Meanwhile, the UN said on Wednesday that more than half of Sudan’s population – around 25 million – now relies on aid, up from 15 million, and has called on member states to raise $3 billion to help the war-torn country. But if the crisis in Yemen is anything to go by – the UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan there remains grossly underfunded – Sudan might not get what it needs from the international community anytime soon.
People walk as they protest in Moundou, Chad.
What We’re Watching: Chaos in Chad, Biden’s barrels of oil
Trouble in Chad
Around 50 people were killed Thursday in Chad amid clashes between security forces and protesters over the junta's decision to delay returning to civilian rule by two years. Hundreds more were injured. The anger is directed at Mahamat Idriss Déby, who took over the Central African nation in April 2021 after his strongman dad and namesake was assassinated by a rebel group. Upon assuming power, the four-star general quickly dissolved parliament to rule by decree but promised to hold a new election in 18 months (Chadians were not happy about it). Earlier this month, military leaders pushed that deadline back to October 2024. Déby, 38, was sworn in last week as "transitional” president and says he plans to run for the job. Will Chadians let him? It's unclear if the younger Déby has as firm a grip as his father, who led the country with an iron fist for 30 years and was considered a reliable Western ally against Islamic extremism. One external player in a tricky spot is former colonial power France: Paris is wary of rising anti-French sentiment there and wants to keep a low profile, but it also needs stability because French energy major Total does a lot of business in oil-rich Chad.
Biden plays with energy
The White House announced this week that it will release another 15 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves in a bid to reduce prices at the pump. President Joe Biden also called on oil companies to use their “record-breaking profits” to pump and refine more oil. Though average fuel prices in the US are down from a June high of $5 a gallon, they’re still 12% higher than this time last year. The strategic release – expected to begin in December – is part of what Biden has called a “wartime bridge” meant to help consumers deal with rising energy prices as a result of Western bans on imports of Russian gas and oil. It’s the last part of his plan, announced in the spring, to release 180 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserves, which has pushed the US’ rainy-day stockpile to its lowest level since 1984. Biden hoped this might lower gas prices ahead of midterm elections on Nov. 8, which are not looking good for Dems. But the later-than-hoped-for timing of the release is a reflection of how fast the strategic petroleum reserve can physically be drawn down. This comes after OPEC+ recently announced it will slash oil output by 2 million barrels per day, which will likely contribute to global gas price hikes right as Americans head to the polls.Mahamat Idriss Deby, son of late Chadian President Idriss Deby, attends his father's state funeral in N'Djamena.
What We’re Watching: Chad unrest continues, Brazil spikes Sputnik, Chinese population falls
Chadians reject "soft" coup: Street protests against Chad's new military-led government have turned bloody a week after the killing of longtime President Idriss Déby. Interim leader Mahamat Idriss Déby, son of the slain Idriss, has named one of his dad's former allies as prime minister, but the opposition says he has no right to do so because he took over in a coup (and neighboring countries agree). Meanwhile France, the former colonial power which backed Déby père for 30 years, was initially open to a civilian-military transition, but has changed its position and now wants a civilian-only government before a fresh election in 18 months. But as long as the younger Déby follows in his father's footsteps by remaining a strong ally of the West against jihadists in the wider Sahel region, Paris surely won't put up too much of a fuss.
China's falling population: The world's most populous country has a new and growing problem: too few babies. According to a Financial Times scoop, the 2020 census — which has not been released yet — shows that China's population has dipped below the 1.4 billion mark that it reached in 2019. Experts blame rising costs of living, education, and childcare. For decades, the Chinese Communist Party was worried about overpopulation, and in 1978 it imposed the infamous "one-child policy." But in 2016 the government relaxed those restrictions because of fears of sluggish population growth. (One side effect of the one-child policy was to encourage families to terminate pregnancies of girls, which has led to a male-female population imbalance among younger Chinese.) A stagnant or shrinking population could present serious long term problems for China's economic growth and the care of older generations. What can China do to convince more Chinese people to have... more Chinese people?
Brazil rejects Sputnik: On Monday, health officials in Brazil refused to approve the Russian COVID vaccine Sputnik V, citing concerns about the vaccine maker's quality-control processes, testing data, and information about potential side effects. This was the latest bad news for a vaccine that Russian officials say has been registered in more than 60 countries and distributed already in Belarus, Syria, Iran, and Argentina. The EU has raised similar concerns about the lack of information about the vaccine, and the government of Slovakia has rejected some shipments of Sputnik V on the grounds that the product they received did not share "the same characteristics and properties" as the Sputnik doses that were deemed "safe and effective" by the British medical journal The Lancet in February. Sputnik V's makers quickly accused Brazil's regulators of playing politics with the vaccine. This story reminds us that the true international reserve currency is trust.Reaction to the verdict in the trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin.
What We’re Watching: George Floyd's family gets justice, India’s COVID mess, political turmoil in Chad
Guilty: Eleven months after George Floyd, an unarmed Black man, died under the knee of Derek Chauvin, a white police officer, on a Minneapolis street corner, we finally have a verdict in the murder trial. On Tuesday, a jury found Chauvin guilty of all three charges: second- and third-degree murder, as well as second-degree manslaughter. The verdict was celebrated by advocates for racial justice and police reform. Last summer, video footage of Floyd suffocating to death as he cried out "I can't breathe" galvanized anti-racism protests across America (some of which turned violent) that went global. We're watching to see if the jury's verdict gives fresh impetus to the nationwide movement for police accountability and broader criminal justice reform, both of which have been met with fierce resistance from law-and-order conservatives and police unions. And we'll also be keeping an eye on the sentence, as Chauvin faces up to 75 years in prison for his crimes.
The world's biggest COVID outbreak: India is currently suffering the world's largest COVID outbreak, reporting more than a quarter million new cases every day. Hospitals in large cities are overwhelmed, and oxygen tanks supplies are flagging. In New Delhi, this week there were as few as 100 intensive care beds available for a population of more than 30 million people. And although the official daily death tally from the disease is approaching 2,000, pileups at crematoria suggest the real toll may be much higher. Until a few months ago India seemed to have the virus under control, but a loosening of restrictions in February, combined with a slow vaccine rollout, likely contributed to the current wave. Opposition leaders have criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not shutting down massive religious festivals sooner, and for continuing with massive political rallies ahead of several crucial state elections.
Vacuum of power in Chad: The North African nation of Chad has been plunged into a sudden political crisis after rebels killed longtime President Idriss Déby. Déby — in power for over 30 years and recently re-elected to a sixth term in office — was gunned down during a visit to soldiers in the northern part of the country. The government will now be run by a military council presided over by Déby's 37-year-old son, a four-star general who immediately dissolved parliament, imposed a curfew, closed the border, and promised to hold a new election in 18 months. The new leader's top priority is to stop the Front for Change and Concord in Chad, a little-known militant group formed by former army officers opposed to Déby, from marching on the capital, N'Djamena. Meanwhile, unrest in Chad presents a big opportunity for jihadist groups to take advantage of the political uncertainty to create yet another foothold in the increasingly volatile Sahel region.