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Liz Truss arrives for the announcement of Britain's next Prime Minister at The Queen Elizabeth II Centre in London.
What We're Watching: Liz beats Rishi, Chile rejects charter change, Trump wins DOJ probe delay
Meet the UK's new PM
As expected, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss won the Conservative Party leadership race on Monday and will become the next British PM, replacing the disgraced Boris Johnson. Truss — a political chameleon who's popular with the Tory base — beat former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, a moderate technocrat, by a comfortable margin of 57% of party member votes. She now faces tough challenges at home and abroad. First, a looming recession compounded by a cost-of-living crisis and an energy crunch. Truss, who fancies herself as a modern Margaret Thatcher, plans to announce big tax cuts and perhaps a temporary freeze on energy bills for the most vulnerable Brits — which her economic guru has warned would be fiscally irresponsible. Second, a likely collision course with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. Brace for rocky times ahead as Truss tries to convince Brussels to renegotiate the post-Brexit trade deal, which scrapped a hard border between Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. (No surprise then that Brussels is hardly looking forward to her moving into No. 10 Downing St.) On Tuesday, Truss will travel to Scotland to meet with Queen Elizabeth II, who as per tradition will ask her to form a government at the monarch's Balmoral summer residence.
Chileans say "no" to new constitution
On Sunday, Chileans gave a resounding thumbs down to the new constitution planned to replace the current Pinochet-era charter. Almost 62% of those who voted in a referendum rejected the proposed text, which would have expanded the role of the state in the economy, recognized Indigenous rights, enforced gender parity in public institutions, and required the government to protect the environment. Although more than three-quarters of Chileans voted in October 2020 to get a new constitution, this draft failed to get majority support because many viewed it as too complicated, long (388 articles), and above all progressive. The "no" victory is a major blow to leftist President Gabriel Boric, a big supporter of the referendum whose approval rating has plunged since he was elected five months ago. Boric now says he wants to call another constituent election; to do that, though, he'll need to negotiate in Congress with the center-right opposition, which will leverage the result to influence the process. Still, Chileans may have turned down this charter, but the popular appetite for a new one hasn’t died down — and politicians dragging their feet could lead to social unrest like the 2019 mass protests that triggered the first referendum.
Trump gets his "master"
Challenging the ongoing Department of Justice investigation over his alleged obstruction of justice, Donald Trump scored a legal victory on Monday, when a federal judge granted the former US president's request to appoint a “special master” – a third-party arbiter – to decide if any of the documents seized by the Feds when they searched his Mar-a-Lago residence are covered by executive privilege. (The DOJ opposes this on the legal grounds that the highly classified records, including many labeled "Top Secret," don’t belong to Trump.) Judge Aileen Cannon — appointed by the former president and confirmed by the Senate just days before the 2020 presidential election — wrote in her judgment that while there was no sign of "callous disregard" for Trump's constitutional rights, among the documents taken on Aug. 8 from his Florida residence were some of the former president's medical and tax documents, and that warrants a “brief pause” in the investigation. The order will delay the DOJ’s probe at least until Friday, the deadline set for both the prosecution and the defense to propose their candidates for arbiter.Chileans rally against the proposed new constitution in Santiago.
Ahead of referendum, Chileans lukewarm on new constitution
On Sunday, Chileans go to the polls again to have their say on a proposed new constitution for the country.
Following earlier votes on whether a new charter was necessary and then who'd get to draft it, Chileans will decide whether to approve or reject a new constitution that enshrines some fundamental new rights and expands the role of the state in looking out for poor citizens and other marginalized groups.
How will the charter change Chile if it passes, and what happens if it doesn't? We get some clarity from Eurasia Group experts Yael Sternberg and Luciano Sigalov.
How did we get here?
The constitutional rewrite was proposed by former President Sebastián Piñera as a conciliatory solution following massive protests that erupted in late 2019 after a 30-peso hike to the metro fare in the capital, Santiago – the last straw for many fed-up Chileans.
The protests unleashed social anger over deeply entrenched inequality; and the effects of neoliberal policies protected by the constitution drafted during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990). After being delayed for several months because of the pandemic, in October 2020 Chileans overwhelmingly voted in a referendum to write a new charter by way of a constituent convention.
The members of the convention were then elected in May 2021, with leftists and independents winning the most seats. They were able to advance many of their proposals through to the plenary, though the most radical ones did not make it into the final draft. Over time, public trust in the process declined as scandals involving members emerged, and the deliberations dragged out.
What big things were included and left out of the final draft?
In addition to addressing women’s and Indigenous rights, the charter expands environmental protections quite broadly to include environmental “rights.” It redefines water as a natural common good that cannot be appropriated, which might result in some changes in the concession system for mining permits.
While some worried the draft would make Chile’s lucrative copper and lithium industries nearly unviable by placing them under state control, outright nationalization of the mining sector was rejected, and property rights remain mostly intact. Still, the draft marks a major shift from the old constitutional framework and would translate into a less business-friendly environment.
How would the new constitution change Chile's political system?
The new charter entails significant changes. The lower house would coexist with a new Chamber of Regions, replacing the senate though with more limited powers, leading to an asymmetric bicameral system. The minimum age to run for president would be lowered from 35 to 30, and presidential reelection for consecutive terms would be allowed.
In parallel, Chile's regions would control their budgets, have direct democracy mechanisms on some issues, and elect their governors. Furthermore, voting would be mandatory, and gender parity would be promoted among elected officials.
The proposed changes to the political system have been poorly received. Most criticisms point to an ill-defined electoral framework, weak powers for the new upper house, expanded responsibilities for lawmakers, and the potential impact of consecutive presidential reelection on policymaking.
Do recent polls give us a clear indication of whether the draft will pass?
The latest polling shows about 46% of people saying they'll vote against the draft, and 37% in favor. But 17% of Chileans say they’re undecided.
Why? For one thing, the messaging of the “yes” campaign in rallies and on TV has been somewhat weak, while the “no” ads have been more coherent and stronger. All campaigning is banned for the last week before the vote.
Also, a recent scandal involving several activists desecrating a Chilean flag during an approval rally has hurt the “yes” side. While the skit was condemned by some pro-approval figures, it essentially encapsulated the fears the “no” camp has been peddling of a deranged and radically leftist future, leaving us less confident that the text will be approved. We know Chileans want a new constitution — that’s what 79% said in the first referendum — but maybe just not this constitution.
What happens if it doesn't?
If the proposed text is rejected, the current constitution will remain in place. But since keeping the Pinochet-era charter is politically toxic, that'll likely result in major social and political backlash. In preparation for such a scenario, the government and political parties across the spectrum have already started to discuss the possibility of a new constitutional process.
However, the path would be lengthy and bumpy. For another rewrite, Congress would have to call another constituent election, something that Boric has already suggested yet would take six at least six months.
Agreeing on the rules — not to mention on the content of a new draft — would likely result in bitter discussions and tough-to-swallow political compromises for many. Uncertainty over Chile’s basic rules of the game will remain.
How might the referendum affect President Gabriel Boric?
A rejection would be a massive political blow for Boric early in his four-year term, as he has long advocated for the constitutional change.
Following such a setback, Boric’s ambitious pension and healthcare reforms would be even more difficult to get passed in a divided congress. Tax reform, another one of his flagship initiatives, would still likely win approval given consensus on the need to raise more revenue; but changes and delays would be likely.
More broadly, the administration would struggle to regain the initiative after linking its fate with the outcome of the plebiscite in a context of high inflation, a deteriorating economic outlook, and an unprecedented security crisis.
Johnson attends a news conference during a NATO summit in Madrid.
What We're Watching: Bombshell UK news, China-Philippines ties, Chilean constitution draft, G20 meeting
Britain’s bombshell resignations
The hits keep coming for the scandal-plagued administration of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. On Tuesday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, both of them heavyweights in the Conservative Party, quit Johnson's government. The trigger came in the wake of MP Chris Pincher’s resignation last week. Pincher stepped down amid new allegations of sexual misconduct. But the party controversy has erupted over the PM’s decision to appoint Pincher as deputy chief whip in the first place. He denied being aware of earlier sexual misconduct allegations against Pincher. Those stemmed from Johnson’s tenure as foreign secretary, when Pincher served under him. The PM was forced to acknowledge this week that he had been briefed on the matter. On Tuesday, Johnson admitted that appointing Pincher had been a mistake. Johnson survived an embarrassing vote of no confidence on June 6 following revelations that he participated in social gatherings that violated COVID lockdown rules and failed to come clean with parliament. But the Pincher scandal and these bombshell resignations now have Johnson’s political career on life support.
Marcos 2.0’s China puzzle
Less than a week after being sworn in as president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. faces his thorniest foreign-policy issue: China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dropped by Manila this week to meet with his newly minted counterpart Enrique Manalo, and so far Marcos is rolling out the red carpet. The Philippine leader said on Tuesday that he's open to boosting military cooperation with Beijing as a way to resolve the countries' dispute over maritime sovereignty in the South China Sea. What that actually means is unclear, but Marcos is trying to carve out his own sweet spot between his China-loving predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, and the prior pro-US administration, which six years ago won an international lawsuit against China over the South China Sea. The stakes are high for the new Philippine president, who must walk a a tightrope to avoid antagonizing both Beijing and Washington (Manila maintains strong defense ties with the latter). What's more, he knows that a majority of Filipinos prefer the US to China, so he’ll have to play both sides to unify a country still divided over the legacy of his dad, the late dictator.
Chileans to vote on new constitution
After a year-long review process, Chile’s 154-member Constitutional Assembly presented a draft new charter to President Gabriel Boric on Monday. Chileans will have two months to review the text before having their say in a referendum scheduled for Sept. 4. In late 2020, Chileans voted overwhelmingly to ditch the current Pinochet-era constitution in a referendum that the government organized in response to mass protests over rising inequality. A year later, Chileans picked a majority of left-leaning and independent candidates to write the draft. The revamped charter focuses on social welfare and the environment instead of economic stability, recognizes the rights of the Indigenous population, and aims to restructure the national healthcare system in one of Latin America's wealthiest yet also most unequal nations. Will it pass Chilean voters' smell test? According to a recent poll, those in favor and against are neck-and-neck, with more than one-third still undecided. Perhaps one of the reasons is the battered Boric, whose approval rating has plummeted since his December 2021 election due to some rookie missteps and the immense challenge of getting anything done in deeply polarized Chile.
Trouble in paradise at the G20
Will the world’s 20 leading economies be able to work together to address soaring global food and energy prices? That’s one big question as the foreign ministers of the G20 prepare to meet this week in the Indonesian island paradise of Bali. But other intrigues abound. Will US, British, and Canadian officials walk out on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as they did at a G20 finance meeting in April? Doing so would send a message that the “West” disapproves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it would also complicate efforts to address food and fuel inflation, which will require some level of cooperation with the Kremlin. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken will meet with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the summit. Among many issues on the agenda for the world’s two largest economies is whether the Biden administration will lift some Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods as a way of bringing down soaring inflation ahead of the midterm elections. If so, what would Washington ask of Beijing in return?What We're Watching: Right-winger on the rise in Chile
Right-winger on a roll in Chile: José Antonio Kast, an ultra- conservative politician who pines for the days of Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship, has ridden a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment to the top of the polls ahead of next month's presidential election. He's currently at 21 percent, one point ahead of leftist former student leader Gabriel Boric. Talk about political whiplash: it was just a few months ago that Chileans elected a broadly leftwing constituent assembly to rewrite the country's Pinochet-era constitution in the wake of mass protests about inequality. But Kast, an avowed free-marketeer and social conservative, has tapped into rising resentment against the vast numbers of migrants – in particular from Venezuela and Haiti – who have arrived in the country in recent years. Last month, for example, saw an outbreak of violence against Venezuelan refugees in the northern city of Iquique. Kast has called for digging ditches along the borders and wants a special police force to root out illegal migrants. In the last presidential election, Kast got less than 8 percent of the vote. This time he's making a race of it.