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This photo taken on September 12, 2022 shows the members of the Nay Pyi Taw People Defense Force running at the frontline frontline in Mobyae, Southern Shan State, Myanmar.
What We’re Watching: China gets “heavy” in Myanmar, Nigeria violence surges, Bangladesh’s ex-leader approved lethal crackdown
China wields rare earths leverage in Myanmar’s civil war
You might not have heard of Kachin State in Myanmar, but the region, which lies along the Chinese border, supplies nearly half of the world’s “heavy rare earths.” Those minerals are crucial ingredients in high tech manufacturing. Much of Kachin is controlled by rebel groups battling the Myanmar junta, and until now China has bought the minerals directly from the rebels. But Beijing, recently drawing closer to Myanmar’s ruling junta, has now threatened to halt buying minerals from the rebels unless they stand down. If they do, it would be a big win for the ruling junta. But if the rebels stand firm and China follows through with the threat to halt purchases, global high-tech supply chains could face serious disruptions.
Violence in Nigeria has surged in 2025
According to Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission, various militant groups killed at least 2,266 people in the first half of 2025 alone, a total higher than the 2,194 deaths for all of last year. For decades, Nigeria has faced violence and terror from the jihadist militants of Boko Haram, but the country’s security problems extend well beyond that to include northern insurgencies, secessionists in the oil-rich southern states, clashes between farmers and herders in central states, and criminal gangs in multiple regions. Nigeria’s military and police are fighting multi-front battles that appear to be getting worse fast.
Leaked audio reveals that ousted Bangladesh leader authorized lethal crackdown
Nearly a year ago, former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina called for an investigation into who was responsible for killing up to 1,400 people during last summer’s student protests against her rule. Now, the former leader has egg on her face, after a leaked audio revealed that she herself authorized her security forces to “use lethal weapons” against demonstrators. The leak comes as Hasina, who fled to India a year ago, faces trial in absentia for crimes against humanity.
China and Japan under pressure from Trump's tariff threats
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s World in :60, Ian breaks down the latest on US trade tensions, Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu.
On US tariffs, Ian says Japan and China face “radically different” situations.
As Iran cuts ties with nuclear inspectors, Ian says they’re “taking their program dark.”
On Trump’s recent meeting with Netanyahu, Ian says a Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain. Though Netanyahu nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Ian points out, “That’s nice for Trump, but not a Gaza ceasefire.”
Graphic Truth: The BRICS+ in a "G-Zero" world
The BRICS, a loose grouping of ten “emerging market” economies led by Brazil, Russia, India and China, held their 17th annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, this weekend. While the official readout from the summit emphasized their commitment to multilateralism, the guestlist begged to differ. Five of the 10 leaders were no-shows, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While the group’s declaration took aim at tariffs increases and recent attacks against Iran, it stopped short of mentioning the US or naming President Donald Trump directly. For more, here’s GZERO writer Willis Sparks’ explainer on why the BRICS are a bad bet.U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson walks back to office, as Republican lawmakers struggle to pass U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping spending and tax bill, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 3, 2025.
What We're Watching: House folds on Trump bill, Beijing lashes out at US-Vietnam deal, Nigerian opposition unites
House holdouts bluff then fold on Trump’s budget bill
The US House is set to pass President Donald Trump’s epic tax-and-spending bill any minute now. Some eleventh hour House Republicans holdouts had signaled that they would oppose the broadly unpopular bill because it boosts the national debt by trillions while threatening to leave millions without health insurance, but they quickly fell in line after under direct pressure from Trump. The imminent final passage of the bill will fulfil Trump’s wish to have the landmark legislation on his desk by the Fourth of July holiday.
US-Vietnam trade deal angers Beijing
The US and Vietnam struck a preliminary trade deal to lower their bilateral tariffs yesterday, and China is not happy about it. Why? Because as part of the deal the US will heavily tariff any goods that pass through Vietnam from another country en-route to the US. That’s a direct swipe at Beijing, which does this frequently to skirt high US tariffs. China’s commerce ministry said it “firmly opposes any party striking a deal at the expense of Chinese interests” and threatened “countermeasures.”
Nigeria sees huge political shakeup as opposition leaders join forces
In one of the biggest shake ups since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria’s two main opposition leaders – Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi – have joined forces to try to oust President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election. In the 2023 election, they won a combined 54% of the vote compared to Tinubu’s 37%, meaning a common front could win. The big question: Which of these two political heavyweights will agree to play second fiddle to the other when it comes time to pick a presidential candidate?A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: China becomes top Cuba benefactor, Canada backs down, & More
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”Anna Wintour attends The Costume Institute's exhibition "Superfine: Tailoring Black Style" at The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, U.S., May 5, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Wintour steps down, Top Chinese official ousted, Norwegian royal faces rape charges, US funds controversial aid organization
37: Anna Wintour is stepping down after 37 years as editor-in-chief of American Vogue. She revolutionised the iconic fashion magazine, introducing celebrities to the cover and spotlighting emerging designers. Wintour will remain Vogue’s global editor, as well as chief content officer at the magazine’s publisher Condé Nast.
1: China’s Central Military Commission, the country’s highest military leadership body, now has one fewer member after voting to remove Miao Hua, senior admiral of the People’s Liberation Army. Miao has been under investigation for “serious violations of discipline” since last November, and his ouster is seen as part of a broader crackdown on corruption under Chinese President Xi Jinping.
28: Norwegian police on Friday accused Marius Borg Høiby, the 28-year old stepson of Crown Prince Haakon, of multiple counts of rape, sexual assault, and bodily harm. The announcement follows a months-long investigation involving “double-digit” victims.
$30 million: The US State Department approved $30 million in funding for the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a controversial US and Israeli-backed aid organization that has been criticized by the UN and other rights groups. Over 400 Palestinians have been killed at various aid points in recent weeks, per UN estimates, after Israeli soldiers fired into crowds seeking food. Israel has reportedly launched a war-crime probe into the incidents.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during the European Council summit at the headquarters of the European Council, in Brussels, Belgium, on June 26, 2026.
Hard Numbers: European leader faces no confidence vote, Sheinbaum wants to sue SpaceX, & more
401: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen faces a no-confidence vote over “Pfizergate,” a scandal over how she secured vaccines in 2021 by personally texting Pfizer’s CEO. It would take an unlikely 401 votes in the 720-strong European Parliament to oust her, but the vote may push her to make political concessions to both the left and right to shore up support.
25: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is threatening to sue Elon Musk’s SpaceX for debris from ground tests near the Mexican border. Her move comes after the US government in May increased the permitted number of annual SpaceX launches from 5 to 25, despite concerns about adverse effects on the environment.
2: Two Chinese international students studying in South Korea were arrested on Wednesday for using drones to film a US carrier at a naval base. They were accused of violating the Protection of Military Bases and Installations Act, and it’s the first time foreign nationals have been detained on such charges. South Korea’s new left-leaning president has sought to distance Seoul from Washington somewhat, raising the prospect of greater tension between its largest security partner, the United States, and its largest trading partner, China.
6-3: In a 6-3 vote, the US Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that Planned Parenthood cannot sue the state of South Carolina over its effort to defund the reproductive health clinics. Abortion is legal in South Carolina only during the first six weeks of pregnancy, but the decision is expected to diminish Planned Parenthood’s ability to provide other healthcare to patients, like physical exams and cancer screenings.
Will Iran’s regime survive?
What’s next for Iran’s regime? Ian Bremmer says, “It’s much more likely that the supreme leader ends up out, but the military… continues to run the country.” Despite global speculation, real change will depend on the Iranian people, not foreign intervention, says Ian.
As attention shifts to the Middle East, Ukraine faces intensified Russian strikes with less international spotlight. Still, Ian notes NATO support remains “pretty solid,” and the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague will be a key signal of that.
And as China pushes for a multipolar currency system, Ian is skeptical: “It’s not premature to talk about multipolarity economically—it is in terms of a currency order.”