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U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 2, 2025.
Trump slaps tariffs on the world
During a speech in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a universal 10% tariff on all US imports, 25% tariffs on foreign-made cars and parts, as well as a naughty list of trading partners that were hit with “reciprocal tariffs” on top – to the tune of 20% for the EU, 54% for China, and 46% for Vietnam, to name a few of the hardest-hit.
There are some exceptions: Neither Canada nor Mexico were singled out for reciprocal tariffs, and although they are subject to automobile and steel tariffs, products compliant with the USMCA agreement – around 38% of imports from Canada and 50% from Mexico – will not be subject to any tariffs.
How will countries respond? The 10% tariffs will take effect on April 5, followed by higher reciprocal tariffs on April 9. This timeline gives countries a chance to retaliate, and many have vowed to do so by imposing equally high tariffs on US imports. But the Trump administration is betting that some may choose to negotiate, either by lowering their own tariffs or increasing investments in the US. “My advice to every country right now is, do not retaliate,” warned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox News. “If you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t, this is the high watermark.”
Financial markets react. S&P and NASDAQ futures declined by 2.4% and 4.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, New York copper futures are experiencing the sharpest drop, plunging as much as 4%, while crude oil fell by 2% in early trading in Asia.
Promises made, promises kept. From the blue-collar workers scattered throughout the Rose Garden crowd to the Teamsters union shoutout, the goal of the tariffs was clear: Trump wants to reshore manufacturing to the US. He also hopes that the revenue collected from tariffs will pay for the tax cuts making their way through Congress.
Trump is making a political gamble that the short-term pain from tariffs — price inflation and possibly even a recession — will be offset by economic benefits from tax cuts, deregulation, and expanded manufacturing. He’s betting that these benefits will arrive before the 2026 midterm elections – if he’s wrong, his party is likely to pay a heavy price at the ballot box.Vice President JD Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, tour the US military's Pituffik Space Base in Greenland on March 28, 2025.
The price is right: Greenland edition
It’s just business, baby: The Danes send around $600 million per year to Greenland, and an unnamed official told the Washington Post that the United States is prepared to spend “a lot higher than that” to lure Greenland into America’s orbit. While the US has not shared exactly how much they are prepared to spend, JD Vance recentlyreiterated the claim that Copenhagenhad not “devoted the resources necessary … to keep the people of Greenland safe.”
But that doesn’t explain the combative approach when a US president could simply seek a bilateral meeting with Denmark to discuss opportunities to expand America’s presence in the Arctic. By forcing his territorial interests on Greenland, Donald Trump risks isolating America’s closest partners. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen in Nuuk on Wednesday told reporters, “The US shall not take over Greenland. Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.”
What does this have to do with Russia and China? Trump and Vance have claimed that acquiring Greenland will protect the island from Russian and Chinese encroachment. But special envoy Steve WitkofftoldTucker Carlson that the US and Russia are “thinking about how to integrate” their Arctic energy policies and “share sea lanes” to send gas into Europe together, suggesting that American ownership of Greenland could foster better cooperation with Russia.
Is there art to this deal? A mix of financial incentives and political ideology is likely behind Trump’s interest in Greenland. Trump has long touted Andrew Jackson as an inspiration and mentioned “manifest destiny” in this year’s inaugural address, so his wandering eyes are to be expected. But here’s a hot take from Ian Bremmer: Maybe Trump and his team “don’t have any reason” for the proposed land grab and all of this “will eventually blow over.”
What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.
China conducts massive military drills around Taiwan.
China on Tuesday conducted one of the largest military drills to date in the waters and skies around Taiwan.
Beijing said the operation — in which dozens of aircraft and warships breached Taiwan’s de facto boundaries — was a dry run for “seizing comprehensive control” of the self-governing island.
The backstory: The island has ruled itself for decades, but Beijing views it as part of China, and President Xi Jinping has promised to reintegrate it — by force if need be. The US nominally recognizes China’s claims but, in practice, provides substantial security support to the island.
Why now? Taiwan’s staunchly pro-independence president Lai Ching-te, who took office last May, has, from Beijing’s perspective, gotten too mouthy, calling China a “foreign hostile force” and bolstering the island’s defense capabilities. Beijing called him a “a parasite” and blasted his “pro-independence provocations.” (Read more about him here.)
The US angle. Trump has signaled he’ll focus on countering China in Asia, but also that he expects Taiwan to shoulder a bigger share of its own defense burden. Beijing could be testing the waters, so to speak, not only around Taiwan but around the White House as well.
“The US was the secondary audience of the military exercises,” says Ava Shen, a China analyst at Eurasia Group. “The Chinese military announcement of the exercises also had an English version, which suggests China wanted to express its opposition to US continued support for Taiwan.”
The flag of China is displayed on a smartphone with a NVIDIA chip in the background in this photo illustration.
Nvidia delays could slow down China at a crucial time
Chinese tech giants like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are buying chips as they race to build AI systems that can compete with American companies like OpenAI and Google. The shortage means these companies might face serious delays in launching their own AI projects, some of which are based on the promising Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s open-source models.
It also comes at a critical time when China is pouring resources into developing its own AI industry despite having limited access to the most advanced computing technology due to US trade restrictions. New shipments are expected by mid-April, though it could mean months of waiting for Chinese firms to go through the proper channels.
The Canadian flag flies on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
Who’s meddling in Canada’s election?
Canada’s foreign interference watchdog is warning that China, India, and Russia plan on meddling in the country’s federal election. The contest, which launched last weekend, has already been marked by a handful of stories about past covert foreign interventions and threats of new ones.
This week, the Globe and Mailreported allegations that India interfered in 2022 to help get Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre elected, though he was not aware of the efforts. They also broke news that former Liberal Party leadership candidate and member of Parliament Chandra Arya was banned from running for leader and reelection because of alleged interference tied, once again, to India.
Now, Canada’s election interference monitoring group is warning that China, India, and Russia will try to interfere in the current election.
Poilievre also accused Liberal leader Mark Carney of being cozy with Beijing due to a $276 million loan Brookfield Asset Management secured from the Bank of China when Carney was Chair of Brookfield’s board. Carney rejected those accusations and, on Wednesday, said that Canada should not pursue greater economic ties with China but should prioritize other Asian nations and Europe.
Other Canadian critics have complained that the US is interfering, citing Donald Trump consigliere Elon Musk’s public statements about the country. But officials say this doesn’t meet the bar for foreign interference. Neither, apparently, do the actions of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith,who recently admitted to Breitbartthat she pressed Trump administration officials to delay tariffs to help elect the Conservatives over the Liberals, since Poilievre would be “the best person” for the White House to deal with given that he would be “very much in sync with the new direction in America.”How DeepSeek changed China’s AI ambitions
But when the Chinese startup DeepSeek released its AI models in January, claiming they matched American ones in performance at much cheaper prices to develop, the US lead was suddenly called into question. If DeepSeek can be believed, they achieved a huge technological advance without unfettered chip access — an affront to the US government’s export controls that, it thought, were keeping China at bay.
After DeepSeek, China is emboldened
Now, the Chinese tech industry seems emboldened, with a slew of new releases from startups and incumbents alike. This breakthrough has jumpstarted AI development across China that has, in an instant, changed global tech competition and reshaped Beijing’s tech strategy.
Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, along with newcomers like Manus AI, have since released their own advanced models. Many of these are available for free as open-source software, unlike the subscription models of OpenAI and others.
“DeepSeek shifts the narrative — not by immediately putting China ahead, but by undermining America's AI dominance and forcing Silicon Valley giants onto the defensive much sooner than anticipated,” said Tinglong Dai, professor at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School.
“DeepSeek did two things: increase confidence in China's ability to innovate and convince policymakers to push hard on tech advancement now,” said Kenton Thibaut, senior resident China fellow at the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab.
At a press conference earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi wrote off America’s strict export controls. “Where there is blockade, there is breakthrough,” he said. “Where there is suppression, there is innovation; where there is the fiercest storm, there is the platform launching China’s science and technology skyward like the Chinese mythological hero Nezha soaring into the heavens.”
Beijing’s shifting focus
After DeepSeek, Thibaut notes, the Chinese government has signaled it will expand support to finance technological innovation — increasing its relending program budget, establishing a new national venture capital fund, allowing unprofitable firms to go public, and increasing mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese tech sector.
This is a major shift from just a few years ago when Beijing sought to put the explosive domestic tech sector in its place — infamously sinking the IPO of the rideshare giant Didi and closing a key loophole for companies going public on foreign markets in 2021.
Beijing’s incentives are now “aligned” with developing the domestic tech sector, Thibaut said, “Both are aligned on the understanding that companies have major incentives to localize — i.e. using domestically produced chips, even if they aren’t as good as NVIDIA’s — in the long term because of just how uncertain and unpredictable chip availability is and will be.”
And China's embrace of open-source AI models, which are freely available for the public to download and modify, has also raised eyebrows because it stands in contrast with the mostly closed Western models, with Meta’s Llama as a notable exception. If China can get its open-source models to be commonly used by Western developers, it could make an important stake in the global AI space. That said, the open-source model could hinder the economic benefits of AI in China — at least, in terms of making money directly off of these advancements.
For now, we’re witnessing a moment of confidence for China — one shared by both its government and tech sector. “Xi Jinping surely feels emboldened,” Dai said, “viewing this as tangible evidence of Western vulnerability and China’s rising trajectory.”
People visit the booth of Walmart eCommerce during the 5th China Cross-Border E-Commerce Trade Fair at Fuzhou Strait International Conference and Exhibition Center on March 18, 2025 in Fuzhou, Fujian Province of China.
Beijing vs. Walmart: Consumer Impact
The Chinese government is also applying pressure,warning earlier this month that demands for discounts could violate contracts and threaten trade relationships. Walmart hasa strong retail presence in China, with sales rising 16% to $17 billion last year, that it doesn’t want to jeopardize. And China also has other cards to play against tariffs: Chinese Premier Li Qiangreportedly signed a State Council decree, effective Monday, to enforce its2021 anti-foreign sanctions law, enabling retaliation against foreign entities through bans, asset freezes, and trade restrictions.
Who could benefit from a trade dropoff with China? First in line: India.Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told NPR that “Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi's big bet is that as more and more companies are seeking to exit China … India is poised to play in a very big way.” Potential winners also includeVietnam and Indonesia: Toy manufacturer Bratz, maker of popular fashion dolls, announced it would relocate factories to the three countries last week.