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What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.
China conducts massive military drills around Taiwan.
China on Tuesday conducted one of the largest military drills to date in the waters and skies around Taiwan.
Beijing said the operation — in which dozens of aircraft and warships breached Taiwan’s de facto boundaries — was a dry run for “seizing comprehensive control” of the self-governing island.
The backstory: The island has ruled itself for decades, but Beijing views it as part of China, and President Xi Jinping has promised to reintegrate it — by force if need be. The US nominally recognizes China’s claims but, in practice, provides substantial security support to the island.
Why now? Taiwan’s staunchly pro-independence president Lai Ching-te, who took office last May, has, from Beijing’s perspective, gotten too mouthy, calling China a “foreign hostile force” and bolstering the island’s defense capabilities. Beijing called him a “a parasite” and blasted his “pro-independence provocations.” (Read more about him here.)
The US angle. Trump has signaled he’ll focus on countering China in Asia, but also that he expects Taiwan to shoulder a bigger share of its own defense burden. Beijing could be testing the waters, so to speak, not only around Taiwan but around the White House as well.
“The US was the secondary audience of the military exercises,” says Ava Shen, a China analyst at Eurasia Group. “The Chinese military announcement of the exercises also had an English version, which suggests China wanted to express its opposition to US continued support for Taiwan.”
The flag of China is displayed on a smartphone with a NVIDIA chip in the background in this photo illustration.
Nvidia delays could slow down China at a crucial time
Chinese tech giants like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are buying chips as they race to build AI systems that can compete with American companies like OpenAI and Google. The shortage means these companies might face serious delays in launching their own AI projects, some of which are based on the promising Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s open-source models.
It also comes at a critical time when China is pouring resources into developing its own AI industry despite having limited access to the most advanced computing technology due to US trade restrictions. New shipments are expected by mid-April, though it could mean months of waiting for Chinese firms to go through the proper channels.
The Canadian flag flies on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
Who’s meddling in Canada’s election?
Canada’s foreign interference watchdog is warning that China, India, and Russia plan on meddling in the country’s federal election. The contest, which launched last weekend, has already been marked by a handful of stories about past covert foreign interventions and threats of new ones.
This week, the Globe and Mailreported allegations that India interfered in 2022 to help get Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre elected, though he was not aware of the efforts. They also broke news that former Liberal Party leadership candidate and member of Parliament Chandra Arya was banned from running for leader and reelection because of alleged interference tied, once again, to India.
Now, Canada’s election interference monitoring group is warning that China, India, and Russia will try to interfere in the current election.
Poilievre also accused Liberal leader Mark Carney of being cozy with Beijing due to a $276 million loan Brookfield Asset Management secured from the Bank of China when Carney was Chair of Brookfield’s board. Carney rejected those accusations and, on Wednesday, said that Canada should not pursue greater economic ties with China but should prioritize other Asian nations and Europe.
Other Canadian critics have complained that the US is interfering, citing Donald Trump consigliere Elon Musk’s public statements about the country. But officials say this doesn’t meet the bar for foreign interference. Neither, apparently, do the actions of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith,who recently admitted to Breitbartthat she pressed Trump administration officials to delay tariffs to help elect the Conservatives over the Liberals, since Poilievre would be “the best person” for the White House to deal with given that he would be “very much in sync with the new direction in America.”How DeepSeek changed China’s AI ambitions
But when the Chinese startup DeepSeek released its AI models in January, claiming they matched American ones in performance at much cheaper prices to develop, the US lead was suddenly called into question. If DeepSeek can be believed, they achieved a huge technological advance without unfettered chip access — an affront to the US government’s export controls that, it thought, were keeping China at bay.
After DeepSeek, China is emboldened
Now, the Chinese tech industry seems emboldened, with a slew of new releases from startups and incumbents alike. This breakthrough has jumpstarted AI development across China that has, in an instant, changed global tech competition and reshaped Beijing’s tech strategy.
Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, along with newcomers like Manus AI, have since released their own advanced models. Many of these are available for free as open-source software, unlike the subscription models of OpenAI and others.
“DeepSeek shifts the narrative — not by immediately putting China ahead, but by undermining America's AI dominance and forcing Silicon Valley giants onto the defensive much sooner than anticipated,” said Tinglong Dai, professor at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School.
“DeepSeek did two things: increase confidence in China's ability to innovate and convince policymakers to push hard on tech advancement now,” said Kenton Thibaut, senior resident China fellow at the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab.
At a press conference earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi wrote off America’s strict export controls. “Where there is blockade, there is breakthrough,” he said. “Where there is suppression, there is innovation; where there is the fiercest storm, there is the platform launching China’s science and technology skyward like the Chinese mythological hero Nezha soaring into the heavens.”
Beijing’s shifting focus
After DeepSeek, Thibaut notes, the Chinese government has signaled it will expand support to finance technological innovation — increasing its relending program budget, establishing a new national venture capital fund, allowing unprofitable firms to go public, and increasing mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese tech sector.
This is a major shift from just a few years ago when Beijing sought to put the explosive domestic tech sector in its place — infamously sinking the IPO of the rideshare giant Didi and closing a key loophole for companies going public on foreign markets in 2021.
Beijing’s incentives are now “aligned” with developing the domestic tech sector, Thibaut said, “Both are aligned on the understanding that companies have major incentives to localize — i.e. using domestically produced chips, even if they aren’t as good as NVIDIA’s — in the long term because of just how uncertain and unpredictable chip availability is and will be.”
And China's embrace of open-source AI models, which are freely available for the public to download and modify, has also raised eyebrows because it stands in contrast with the mostly closed Western models, with Meta’s Llama as a notable exception. If China can get its open-source models to be commonly used by Western developers, it could make an important stake in the global AI space. That said, the open-source model could hinder the economic benefits of AI in China — at least, in terms of making money directly off of these advancements.
For now, we’re witnessing a moment of confidence for China — one shared by both its government and tech sector. “Xi Jinping surely feels emboldened,” Dai said, “viewing this as tangible evidence of Western vulnerability and China’s rising trajectory.”
People visit the booth of Walmart eCommerce during the 5th China Cross-Border E-Commerce Trade Fair at Fuzhou Strait International Conference and Exhibition Center on March 18, 2025 in Fuzhou, Fujian Province of China.
Beijing vs. Walmart: Consumer Impact
The Chinese government is also applying pressure,warning earlier this month that demands for discounts could violate contracts and threaten trade relationships. Walmart hasa strong retail presence in China, with sales rising 16% to $17 billion last year, that it doesn’t want to jeopardize. And China also has other cards to play against tariffs: Chinese Premier Li Qiangreportedly signed a State Council decree, effective Monday, to enforce its2021 anti-foreign sanctions law, enabling retaliation against foreign entities through bans, asset freezes, and trade restrictions.
Who could benefit from a trade dropoff with China? First in line: India.Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told NPR that “Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi's big bet is that as more and more companies are seeking to exit China … India is poised to play in a very big way.” Potential winners also includeVietnam and Indonesia: Toy manufacturer Bratz, maker of popular fashion dolls, announced it would relocate factories to the three countries last week.
The economic waves of Trump 2.0: Insights from The Economist's Zanny Minton Beddoes
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer, we ask The Economist's editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes: Did Wall Street get President Trump wrong?
Candidate Trump promised to lower taxes and drastically reduce government regulation. This message resonated as much with Wall Street as it did with Main Street. After surviving, if not thriving, under President Trump's first term in office, the business community no longer feared Trump's unpredictability. They overlooked his fixation on tariffs and his promises of mass deportations.
However, the first months of Trump 2.0 have been a time of economic warfare and market volatility. President Trump slapped tariffs on America's largest trading partners and closest allies and began to make good on a promise to deport millions of illegal immigrants. So where is this all heading, and what does it mean for the rest of the world?
President Donald Trump talks to the media next to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, with a Tesla car in the background, at the White House on March 11, 2025.
Report: Pentagon set to reveal secret China war strategy to … Elon Musk
Elon Musk may have a big day ahead. On Friday, according to the New York Times, he’ll reportedly be made privy to war plans for a US military conflict with China. But President Donald Trump has notably denied that Musk will be briefed on China during the visit.
While discussions about such a confrontation within the walls of the Pentagon are nothing new — defense officials have been war-gaming such a scenario for years — this would be a novel and expanded advisory role for the man at the helm of DOGE, the agency that has federal workers dodging pink slips.
The Tesla CEO was, according to the NYT report, invited to visit America’s five-sided symbol of strength by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who will lead a slide presentation detailing the operational plan, aka O-plan, from early indications of a possible threat from China through to full-on engagement.
Is there a conflict of interest? Good question. Pundits are wondering whether Musk, who helms both SpaceX and Tesla and has plenty of financial investments in China, should be let in on state secrets about how the US might fight a hypothetical war with China. Should Beijing get wind of the plans, it would help China prepare, giving it the advantage.
But, on the other hand ... the man who’s driving bids to reduce the federal deficit may need to know how much money is required to keep American war-fighting capabilities afloat. The White House has noted that Musk would recuse himself in the case of such conflicts of interest.
We’ll be keeping an eye on Musk’s visit and any fallout.