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Slim GOP majority traps McCarthy in US House speaker standoff
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why is the GOP, the Republican Party, having difficulty electing a House leader?
Well, it's because they have like a razor, razor thin margin and that means that Kevin McCarthy cannot afford to lose votes even though he has 90% of the GOP ready to vote for him. That's not enough to get it done, and the Democrats are more than happy to watch the Republicans flail around for days or weeks to lose votes while they are in the majority. So as a consequence, we're going to keep having votes. Last time you had more than one vote for a house speaker was in 1923. So congratulations to the GOP on making history.
Will Erdogan have success playing peacemaker with Zelensky and Putin?
You know, you've got to give Erdogan credit. He is the guy together with the secretary-general of the United Nations that has managed to get two rounds of a food and fertilizer deal done in the Black Sea, which is helping to reduce prices around the world in an environment of very high inflation. So that's a big deal, and this is a war with almost no positive stories that have come out. But on the broader issue of negotiations between the two countries, I'm going to say "no." These two sides are very far apart. The Ukrainians are under massive pressure to get their territory back and to have a rejoinder to the thousands of war crimes that have been committed against their country. That is not a position where they're suddenly going to say "okay, we're going to talk about some of the land that you guys have taken from us." And meanwhile, Putin has been humiliated by a massive loss over the course of the last year, and he's certainly not going to say "okay, I give up. I'm going to just leave." So there just isn't room. You could have some talks, but there isn't room right now at least, for fundamental negotiations that would be promising, that could be impactful, that could have progress between the two sides.
What countermeasures is China threatening in response to COVID travel restrictions?
Well, you could certainly see tit for tat in China, given the fact that, you know, the Chinese, everybody wants to get back into China that hasn't been able to travel there for a couple of years now. But I don't expect there'll be significant economic countermeasures. All they're asking for at this point, and this is India and pretty much the entire G7, is saying "you need to take a COVID test to make sure that when you're coming over that you're not COVID positive." Over 50% of Chinese that were traveling to, I think it was Milan, last week on flights, were positive for COVID. There was no way in that environment with the Chinese that are letting COVID rip and that aren't actually testing for asymptomatic COVID, that they're going to just allow them to get on planes and travel around the world. So it seems to be a fairly natural response.
Also won't last very long because this wave is so massive and will burn itself out over the course of at least a couple of months.
- Rinse, repeat: Republicans fail to agree on the House speaker ›
- What We’re Watching: McCarthy in trouble, Lula 2.0, global recession fears ›
- What We’re Watching: Pelosi’s farewell, #RIPTwitter, Malaysian vote, Iranian rage, UK austerity ›
- GOP-led US House will get tougher on China — but not as much as you'd think ›
China somewhat eases zero-COVID restrictions
The Graphic Truth: China's old vs. new zero-COVID
Change is afoot in China. Beijing’s zero-COVID containment strategy has been widely criticized at home and abroad, setting markets aflutter, and disrupting economies and supply chains worldwide. But now, just weeks after President Xi Jinping secured his norm-defying third term as CCP secretary-general, his new Politburo Standing Committee has issued changes to China’s zero-COVID policy. The news saw Hong Kong and mainland markets react positively, and online inbound flight bookings doubled overnight, but economists remain wary and are advising caution. We explore the differences between the two policies.
Medical workers take swab samples from residents at a COVID testing site in Hong Kong.
Hard Numbers: Hong Kong COVID spike, Hernandez in cuffs, al-Shabaab attack, Colombians displaced
4,285: Hong Kong on Wednesday set a daily record with 4,285 new COVID cases amid a fresh outbreak that is testing China’s zero-COVID approach to the pandemic. With hospitals in the 7.5-million-strong city-state under pressure, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on Hong Kong’s leaders to “mobilize all resources” to flatten the curve.
1.6 million: US authorities say former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández solicited at least $1.6 million from narco-traffickers to support his presidential campaign. The US, which wants to try him for that and a slew of other drug charges, has asked Honduras to extradite him. He was arrested on Tuesday at his home in Tegucigalpa, the Honduran capital, and could soon be sent to the US.
5: At least five people were killed Wednesday in attacks by al-Shabaab jihadists in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. The attacks come as political clashes over a long-delayed election weaken the government’s ability to thwart the militant threat.
73,974: The UN says that at least 73,974 people were forcibly displaced from their homes in Colombia last year, nearly a 60% annual increase. With the country’s landmark 2016 peace deal only partly implemented, turf clashes between drug traffickers, gangs, and other militants are the main cause of the displacements.
China vs COVID in 2022
Omicron has arrived. It's more contagious, but less severe. Some parts of the world are even looking forward to the pandemic becoming endemic.
Not China. Xi Jinping's zero-COVID strategy has worked wonders until now, but it's unlikely to survive omicron, explains Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Why? China's vaccines are not as effective against the new COVID variant as mRNA jabs, and the Chinese population has no protection from previous infection.
Without a homegrown mRNA vaccine, China is vulnerable to local omicron outbreaks, which will lead to severe lockdowns and, in turn, greater economic disruption.
That's the last thing Xi wants less than a month out from the Winter Olympics, and later this year, when he hopes to get an unprecedented third term in office as China's leader.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Omicron and the undoing of China’s COVID strategy
What We're Watching: US and Russia in Geneva, mass testing in Tianjin, a big loss for Venezuela's Maduro
US and Russia in Geneva. Senior US and Russian diplomats opened talks in Geneva on Monday, kicking off a round of discussions between Kremlin and Western officials across Europe over the next few days. Vladimir Putin wants Joe Biden and NATO leaders to redraw the security map of Europe by promising that Ukraine, Georgia, and other Russian neighbors will never join NATO and that the security alliance will not place missile system in Ukraine. That would, in effect, redivide Europe into Western and Russian spheres of influence. The Biden administration and NATO officials have said they will not allow Russia to veto NATO membership for countries that want to join. European leaders have warned the US to honor these promises, and Ukraine’s government is watching and waiting as an estimated 100,000 Russian troops remain poised near the Ukrainian border. Russia says it will pursue its aims by military means if necessary. NATO says it's ready to respond. The US says any Russian incursion into Ukraine will draw harsh sanctions against Russian and more supplies of Western weapons for Ukraine. Putin began this game of chicken, and we’ll be watching in coming weeks to see how far he wants to push it.
Mass COVID testing in Tianjin. About 40 residents of the Chinese city of Tianjin have tested positive for COVID and some have been infected with the omicron variant. In response, the city will test the city’s entire population of 14 million people. Travel restrictions have been imposed, and health officials are working to trace the path of infection and to isolate everyone who might have been exposed. About 30 neighborhoods in Tianjin have been locked down. The stakes are especially high from this outbreak because Tianjin is just 70 miles from Beijing, which will host the Winter Olympic Games next month. This large-scale response to a relatively small number of COVID cases isn’t new for China, which has so far avoided the large-scale outbreaks COVID has inflicted on much of the rest of the world. But after a similar lockdown in the city of Xian, home to 13 million people, created food shortages and imposed other hardships, officials in Tianjin must hope that all goes much more smoothly. And China now faces one of its greatest national challenges in coming months in holding to a “zero COVID” policy while avoiding public anger and managing economic fallout as the highly transmissible omicron variant poses new challenges.
A stinging loss for Maduro. Venezuela's opposition has beaten the ruling socialist party of President Nicolás Maduro in a governorship race in the agricultural province of Barinas. The triumph of Sergio Garrido, a little-known leader of a leftist political party, is important for several reasons. First, Barinas is the home state of socialist stalwart Hugo Chávez. For decades, the rural heartland and the birthplace of Chavismo, the former leader’s socialist political ideology, has been a ruling party stronghold. (Garrido’s challenger was in fact the late Chávez’s son-in-law.) Second, Sunday's vote was a rerun from a spate of crucial state-wide races in November where Maduro allies triumphed, winning 19 of 23 governorships. After an opposition candidate won a close vote in November, a Maduro-packed court ruled he was ineligible to serve and called for a redo. Yet, on Sunday the opposition won again with a new candidate. As the international community has mostly turned its back on Caracas after a rigged national vote in 2018, Maduro has tried to rebuild a sense of political legitimacy. But this hugely embarrassing upset suggests that even rural voters who have long supported the Chávez-Maduro political platform may be fed up with economic stagnation, corruption, and sky-high poverty.
What We're Watching: Chilean beekeepers, bartering in Xian, possible Turkish-Saudi détente
Standing up for the bees in Chile. Chilean beekeepers demonstrated Tuesday outside the presidential palace in Santiago, calling for the government to provide more support for the ailing industry. The protesters set up on the street dozens of hives containing 10,000 bees to draw attention to their plight, and stop police from shutting down the rally. (At least seven police officers were stung.) Beekeepers say that a decade-long “megadrought” has ruined the crops and flowers needed to sustain bees — and they want the government to guarantee honey prices or provide subsidies for producers. This might seem like an obscure agriculture story, but it’s not: bees pollinate some of Chile’s major food exports like avocados, apples and almonds, and thus help sustain an industry worth a whopping $6.46 billion in exports in 2020. Although the government says it has been supporting some communities facing water shortages, the bee industry says it’s not enough. Disgruntled beekeepers might be in luck: the leftist Gabriel Boric, who supports expanding Chile's social safety net, will be sworn in as president in March.
Cigarettes for cabbage in Xian. Residents of the central Chinese city of Xian — some 13 million people — have been forced to stay in their homes since December 23, as Beijing continues to use draconian measures to contain new COVID outbreaks. Indeed, most residents are only allowed to leave their homes for testing, and rely on the state to hand out free groceries and other supplies. But many people say that spotty deliveries are leaving families hungry, while some essentials like medicines are scarce. (A dystopian video last week reportedly showed cops beating a man who left his home to buy steamed buns.) What’s more, residents have reportedly adopted a bartering system, exchanging goods like cigarettes and tech appliances for vegetables. Despite the changed nature of the pandemic, Xi Jinping is intent on pursuing a zero-COVID strategy that might have made sense in 2020 — but not so much in omicron-inundated 2022. Less than a month out from the Beijing Winter Olympics, what’s the CCP’s game-plan?
Détente between Turkey and Saudi Arabia? Middle East rivals Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been mired in tensions for years, which peaked in 2018 after the slaying of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi operatives in Istanbul. Now, in a major diplomatic breakthrough, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that he’ll visit Riyadh next month to meet with the country’s de-facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. For years, the Saudis called on Ankara to stop supporting terror groups, citing Ankara’s close ties with Qatar, a Saudi foe. What’ll be on the agenda? Ankara, currently facing a collapsing currency, likely wants to patch things up so it can boost economic ties with Riyadh, including getting the Saudis to lift an unofficial boycott on some Turkish goods. Both sides are also keen to coordinate on regional geopolitics after the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and increasing disengagement from the Middle East. The signs of a détente are promising after Erdogan recently hosted MBS’ close pal, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, who pledged to invest billions of dollars in Turkey.
China’s coming COVID crisis?
When Eurasia Group, our parent company, released its Top Risks report for 2022 on Monday, readers might have been surprised to see COVID at the very top of the list.
Yes, omicron has sent case and hospitalization numbers surging once again in dozens of countries, but the prevailing mood among many analysts has been positive. After all, this latest variant is thought to be less dangerous than previous COVID variants, and much of the developed world has been vaccinated (and boosted) with remarkably effective vaccines. Some have speculated that “Omicron is the beginning of the end” of the pandemic.
Unfortunately, optimism in the US and Europe stands on shakier ground in other regions. China, in particular, may be facing an especially rough year.
Poorer countries will continue to be hit hardest, in part because omicron increased demand for booster shots in the US and Europe will further delay the day when the most effective vaccines are widely available elsewhere. To date, just 8 percent of people in developing countries have received even one vaccine dose.
There will also be further economic damage as poorer governments take on more debt to spur recovery and political fallout as people lash out at their governments.
But the most provocative part of this 2022 COVID story – and the entire report – is Eurasia Group’s surprisingly dark view of what’s about to happen in China.
Beijing’s “zero COVID” policy was a major public health success story in 2020. As Americans, Europeans, Indians, and others struggled with surging numbers of deaths, overwhelmed hospitals, and political fury, the ability of China’s leaders to lock down millions of people and use cutting-edge surveillance technology like track-and-trace apps to enforce its restrictions sharply limited the numbers of infections and deaths. In 2021, China was forced to impose and enforce many more quarantines, but the policy held up relatively well.
But in 2022, argues Eurasia Group, China will face highly transmissible omicron with apparently less effective vaccines and far fewer people protected by antibodies created by previous infections. This year’s COVID outbreaks in China may not set records for deaths, but they will be larger, and “zero COVID” lockdowns will be more severe and involve tens of millions more people. This crisis will continue until China can roll out domestically developed mRNA shots and boosters for its 1.4 billion people, which still appears at least a year away.
That, according to Eurasia Group, will mean a lot more economic disruption and maybe rising public anger – at a time when President Xi Jinping wants to formally extend his time as leader and roll out more reforms designed to maintain and extend the state’s reach into daily life across the country.
Eurasia Group’s call will be controversial – and might well be proven wrong. After all, there’s still uncertainty about omicron and the ability of China’s existing vaccines to prevent serious illness. The government might try to relax the zero COVID policy and effectively hide the fallout. More to the point, China has proven for decades that its authoritarian political system creates a degree of political control we don’t see in other major countries, either democracies or other authoritarian states. As China becomes much more technologically innovative, its government and public security have ever-more-effective tools to maintain that control.
But if China really is in for a rough ride, outsiders should resist any temptation to gloat. After all, China is still the world’s primary engine for global growth, and shuttered factories, more global supply chain disruptions, canceled flights, and lower demand for the rest of the world’s exports will be bad news just about everywhere.
- What is China's zero COVID policy? - GZERO Media ›
- How China decides to handle omicron will have global implications – Yanzhong Huang - GZERO Media ›
- China isn't budging on zero-COVID - GZERO Media ›
- China's year of unpredictability - GZERO Media ›
- China's big problem isn’t Ukraine — it’s COVID - GZERO Media ›
- The problem with China’s Zero COVID strategy | GZERO World Podcast - GZERO Media ›
What We're Watching: China tackles delta, Bolsonaro fans hit the streets for receipts, Nigeria's crypto conundrum
China tackles delta: China is the latest country to express serious concern over the highly contagious delta variant, after recording 300 cases in 10 days. Authorities there are trying to trace some 70,000 people who may have attended a theatre in Zhangjiajie, a city in China's Hunan province, which is now thought to have been a delta hotspot. Making matters worse, a busy domestic travel season in China saw millions recently on the move to visit friends and family just as delta infections spiked in more than a dozen provinces. Authorities have enforced new travel restrictions in many places, including in central Hunan province, where more than 1.2 million people have been told to stay in their homes for three days while authorities roll out a mass testing scheme. The outbreak has reached Beijing, too, with authorities limiting entrance to the capital to "essential travelers" only. Indeed, the outbreak has raised fresh concerns about Chinese vaccines' protection against delta, because China has not provided efficacy results for the variant.
Bolsonaro hit the streets for receipts: Ahead of what looks like an increasingly tough fight for reelection in 2022, Brazil's provocative right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro has been calling into question the integrity of the vote itself. Recently, he has alleged, without evidence, that there was "fraud" in the first round of the 2018 election, which he won in a runoff. Now, as Bolsonaro trails his most likely 2022 competitor, the popular leftist former president Lula, by double digits in early polling, he has suggested that Brazil's electronic voting systems are vulnerable to new mischief. On Sunday, a few thousand of his supporters took to the streets to support his demand that every vote cast electronically in 2022 come with a paper receipt for easy recounts. To be clear, there is zero evidence that vote tampering of this kind is a real problem in Brazil. Observers worry that Bolsonaro, who has badly mishandled the pandemic and faces potential corruption allegations that could open the way to impeachment, is laying a fictitious groundwork to contest an election that he might lose. Sound familiar?
Nigeria's crypto conundrum: The Nigerian government has tried to crack down on cryptocurrency trading over the past year, but recent figures show that the strategy is backfiring: Nigerians traded 50 percent more in the first five months of 2021 than during the same period last year, according to a Helsinki-based crypto platform. Many factors, including a stagnant economy, corruption, and a pandemic-related drop in remittances and the value of the local currency, have caused the surge in crypto trading in Nigeria, where 62 percent of the population is under the age of 25. (Nigeria is now second only to the US for Bitcoin trading.) Trying to reduce incentives for Nigerians to trade in unregulated currencies, in February the government banned cryptocurrency transactions through licensed banks, a measure that was largely ignored. The government, for its part, says the move is intended to protect users from a volatile and unregulated industry; critics say it's about excessive government control. Indeed, recent events show that any central bank must tread carefully when attempting to regulate crypto, which is fast becoming a major conundrum for monetary authorities around the world. Nigeria's central bank recently announced that it would pilot the launch of its own digital currency in October as an alternative, but none of these measures seem to have changed Nigerians' behaviors for now.