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The US-China fallout from Biden’s PNG no-show
On Monday, Joe Biden was scheduled to make a historic stopover in Papua New Guinea coming from the G-7 summit in Japan and on his way to the Quad huddle in Australia. It would have been the first visit by a sitting US president to a country that often flies under the radar yet has immense geopolitical significance.
But Biden decided to cut short his trip and return stateside after the G-7 to negotiate a debt ceiling deal with Republicans in Congress. This did not go down well in PNG.
“It is a disappointment,” says Patrick Kaiku, who teaches politics at the University of Papua New Guinea. “[Prime Minister] James Marape invested so much time and energy into this major event, anticipating it for his own standing in the region, and also as a reaffirmation of the US [prioritizing] the Pacific and PNG.”
What’s more, Biden didn't even get on the phone himself to inform Marape, unlike the US president did with Australian PM Anthony Albanese. (Although Biden belatedly called the PNG to smooth things over, a snub is a snub.)
First, what’s all the fuss about PNG? The island nation often gets a bad rap. The capital, Port Moresby, is considered one of the most dangerous cities in the world, especially for women, and in the countryside, an estimated 200 people are killed annually for being — yikes — "witches."
But PNG is also an anthropological gem as well as the world's most linguistically diverse country, with some 840 languages spoken by thousands of ethnic groups among its 9 million people.
Despite being rich in natural gas, timber, and minerals like copper and gold, PNG remains one of the world's most underdeveloped countries. Yet, in recent years it's become the big prize for two heavyweights jostling for power in the Pacific: the US and China.
Biden is wooing PNG to counter Beijing's growing clout in the region, where the Biden administration has been scrambling to regain a foothold since April 2022. That’s when China quietly inked a security agreement with the nearby Solomon Islands, raising the specter of a future Chinese military presence in a part of the world America had neglected for decades.
Xi Jinping then tried to sign up more Pacific countries, although US pressure convinced most of them to pass. Biden later hosted Pacific leaders at a White House summit and had planned to follow up by meeting them again in PNG.
Biden and Marape were going to sign a landmark defense cooperation and maritime surveillance pact, which must be ratified by parliament before it becomes law. Details were murky, but a leaked draft showed that the Americans would have broad autonomy to access PNG airspace and ports — presumably to snoop on Chinese navy patrols — in exchange for PNG getting US satellite data to track illegal fishing.
After Biden’s no-show, PNG could give the deal a second look. It "allows space for the domestic debate about this very unconstitutional and unusual agreement," Kaiku says. "PNG has literally conceded its sovereignty and allowed immunity to foreign powers."
If that happens, Xi might give Marape a call. But PNG — as any country caught in the zero-sum crossfire of US-China competition — would rather just get along with both Washington and Beijing.
One the one hand, China is by far PNG's largest trade partner. Chinese companies are hungry for raw materials from PNG, a member of China's Belt and Road Initiative to fund (badly needed) infrastructure development. On the other, PNG is also eager for US investment to move its economy beyond extracting natural resources, and for US military tech support to better police its territory and waters.
Still, PNG has little faith in rhetorical pledges of commitment from either side. The only major power with a long-term strategic interest in PNG is southern neighbor and US ally Australia, which is now negotiating a separate security gig with its former colony.
"The US is not going to be permanently engaged with PNG. It is China that has somehow gotten the US interested all of a sudden in the Pacific, [which] is not important strategically to America," says Kaiku. "Whether the US is trusted or not is irrelevant."
A protester holds a portrait of former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont during a protest in front of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
What We're Watching: Catalan separatist off the hook, Biden's special counsel, Oz-PNG deal, Czech election, nukes for South Korea?
Spanish justice gives up on Catalan fugitive
After trying for more than five years to bring fugitive ex-Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont to trial for sedition, on Thursday a Spanish judge threw in the towel and dropped the charge. Why? The left-wing government of PM Pedro Sánchez has watered down the crime of sedition so much that it no longer covers what Puigdemont did in Oct. 2017: declare Catalonia an independent republic before skipping town when he was about to get arrested. And why did Sánchez tweak the law? Because he needs the votes of Catalan separatist parties in the national parliament to stay in power (which also explains why he pardoned the other politicians who tried to secede along with Puigdemont.) The judge's decision has big political implications in an election year. On the one hand, it's vindication for the Catalan independence movement, which has been losing steam since its failed secession bid. But on the other, it's a poison pill for Sánchez, whom the the Spanish right has long accused of pandering to Catalan separatists. The PM will get a sense of what Spanish voters think of his Catalonia policy in local and regional elections in late May, a dress rehearsal for a general vote in December.
Biden gets a special counsel, too
US Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday appointed a special counsel to lead the investigation into the discovery of two batches of classified files allegedly taken by President Joe Biden when he was VP. The White House has promised full cooperation. Garland has followed his playbook from a similar probe involving former President Donald Trump, who stashed 300+ classified files from the White House at his Mar-a-Lago pad and gave the Feds a hard time about it. While Garland’s move is unsurprising, the appointment of the special counsel can hurt Biden in two ways. First, it gives Republicans fodder to investigate the president in the House, regardless of Trump's own mishandling of sensitive government information. Second — and perhaps more importantly — it might mess with the Justice Department's own case against Trump and weaken the political argument to prosecute him as a presidential candidate in 2024. Even if the probe ends up not recommending charges for Biden, expect it to drag on for months and for the GOP to make a big stink about the whole thing. On another note, seriously, what's up with US presidents/veeps and classified files? Is it so hard to leave office without taking your past homework with you? Let us know what you think.
Oz & PNG working on security agreement
It's an open market for security pacts in the Pacific. Nine months after China clinched a controversial deal with the Solomon Islands, Australia is negotiating its own with Papua New Guinea and expecting to sign a security pact by June. This comes at a time when the US and its allies in the region are worried about Beijing's growing clout in a part of the world the West has long neglected. The leaders of the two countries promised transparency to contrast with China's secrecy, but so far the Aussies are keeping the details as much under wraps as the Chinese did. Regardless, the talks are quite a milestone for Australia-PNG relations given the messy legacy of Canberra's colonial rule. What's more, striking a deal would be a big win for Australia in its race to counter China because PNG has a lot of natural resources — fossil fuels, minerals, you name it — that Beijing is eager to get its hands on. We'll keep an eye on this in case the deal has any effect on Australia-China ties, now enjoying a warm-ish spell after years of frostiness.
Czech elections: round one, fight!
Czechs vote this weekend in the first round of a presidential election featuring three very distinct frontrunners. Leading the polls is Petr Pavel (“Peter Paul”!), a retired general and former top NATO official who’s running as a safe, Europhile pair of hands and a strong supporter of Ukraine. Just behind him is Andrej Babiš, a Eurosceptic populist agriculture tycoon who was prime minister from 2017-2021. Babiš has been dogged by allegations of corruption, though he was cleared this week by a Czech court. His ANO party, popular with older and more rural voters, remains the largest in parliament. Lastly, economics professor Danuše Nerudová, a progressive on social issues, has highlighted the importance of electing her as the country’s first female president. Czech presidents have limited powers, but they play a role in forming governments and represent the country abroad. Outgoing President Miloš Zeman, an ally of Babiš, fomented controversy throughout his 10 years in power, not least because of his overt sympathies for Russia. No one is expected to win outright in the first round — a runoff will be held in late January.
Wait, why did “Czechoslovakia” split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia 30 years ago? Read our recent explainer here.
South Korea mulls nuclear weapons ... again!
Nuclear rhetoric is heating up again on the Korean Peninsula, but this time the push is coming from South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol says that if the threat from the North continues, Seoul could develop its own nukes, or push the US to deploy them. Washington pulled its tactical nukes from South Korea in the 1990s, and it is unlikely to redeploy them. But Yoon isn’t coming out of left field. He has serious public support for developing nukes, and he’s not the first South Korean leader to have such ambitions. But considering the last time a South Korean leader proposed nuclear proliferation was in the 1970s, Yoon is the first one in decades to do so. He was elected last year with a mandate for a tough stance against Pyongyang, which has been amping up its missile tests and even flying drones into the South. Analysts say it’s unlikely that Yoon will actually go down the nuclear route. It’s more likely this stance could trigger China to convince its friends in the North to tone down the aggression, while also possibly push the US to extend its deterrence umbrella to the South.
US-China competition expands to the Pacific Islands
Alarmed by China’s progress in extending its influence among a series of strategically located islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, this week President Joe Biden is hosting the first-ever US-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, DC. The White House has invited the leaders of 12 Pacific nations to discuss climate change, economic cooperation, and security ties. We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to explain the importance of the event.
Why hold the summit now?
After taking office in early 2021, the Biden administration initially focused its Indo-Pacific diplomatic efforts on longstanding allies Japan and South Korea, as well as on wooing India and strengthening the Quad, a grouping of the US, Japan, India, and Australia. In the second half of the year, it ramped up its engagement with Southeast Asia.
Now it is turning its focus to the Pacific Islands, partly in response to increased Chinese assertiveness in the region and the warnings of a concerned Australia, a key US ally.
One recent development that set off alarm bells was a security pact between China and the Solomon Islands that entails broad police and military cooperation. Beijing this year also tried, unsuccessfully, to form a regional economic and security pact with ten Pacific countries.
Some Pacific countries say America has neglected them for a long time – is that true?
Broadly, yes. At the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in July, Vice President Kamala Harris took an important step toward healing wounded feelings. Speaking over a video link, she said: “We recognize that in recent years, the Pacific Islands may not have received the diplomatic attention and support that you deserve. So today I am here to tell you directly: We are going to change that.”
What do Pacific countries want from the US, and what is the US willing to offer them?
First and foremost, these countries want the US to show up and engage with them. To that end, the US is reopening its embassy in the Solomon Islands and plans to establish two new missions in the region, in Tonga and Kiribati; Washington will also, for the first time, appoint a US envoy to the Pacific Islands Forum.
Beyond that, Pacific countries want help mitigating the effects of climate change. Several nations lie just a few meters above sea level. Fiji Defense Minister Inia Seruiratu said at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June: "In our Blue Pacific continent, machine guns, fighter jets, gray ships, and green battalions are not our primary security concern. The single greatest threat to our very existence is climate change."
In July, Harris said that US assistance to the region — to help strengthen climate resilience, improve marine planning and conversation, address illegal fishing, and enhance maritime security — would be tripled to $60 million per year for the next decade, subject to approval by Congress. The US Agency for International Development also plans to re-establish a regional mission in Suva, Fiji.
Why has China been expanding its own engagement with the region?
The Pacific Islands are composed of many small nations, each with a vote at the UN, providing an attractive opportunity for China to expand its international support.
Beijing is also seeking to further constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space, given that the Pacific Islands are home to four of the remaining 14 nations that formally recognize Taiwan. China has already convinced several Pacific countries to switch their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, most recently the Solomon Islands and Kiribati in 2019. That said, Taiwan’s four remaining allies — the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Palau, and Nauru — say they are standing firm.
The Pacific Islands region is also an important part of China’s goal to project naval power further afield by finding new friendly nations to offer safe harbor to Chinese military vessels.
Why does this outreach concern the US?
Beijing’s increasing engagement in the Pacific Islands poses a number of implications for US military interests, including the potential encirclement of allies Australia and New Zealand.
In addition, as China increases its economic engagement, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, Pacific Island countries may feel more beholden to Beijing and side with it at international fora. Washington is also concerned that China’s growing influence could weaken democracy and governance in the region.
Who is winning the scramble for the Pacific?
Until recently, it seemed China had the upper hand, with much more intense diplomatic and economic engagement. But Beijing has suffered several setbacks recently, such as the failure of the new economic and security pact, and rising apprehension over involvement in BRI projects worldwide.
Meanwhile, the US is re-engaging, and its support for regional identities strikes a chord in the region. Similarly, Australia has scored some success in its efforts to convince Pacific Island countries not to use the equipment of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.
The challenge for the US, though, is to sustain engagement with a far-flung region at a time when it has many priorities to juggle, several of which are more pressing. China will always be able to devote more financial resources and deploy senior visitors to the region more often than the US can. Yet the US’s network of alliances and partnerships can compensate for this disadvantage. Especially important is the role played by Australia, which is by far the largest aid donor to the Pacific Islands, the Quad grouping, and the recently launched US-led Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative, which includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the UK as well as other observer countries.
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