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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada April 16, 2025.
Hard Numbers: BoC warily holds rates, Canada lobbies China for tariff relief, Trump gives borderlands to the Army, Global growth forecasts fall, Major League Baseball struggles to attract Black talent
2.75: Canada’s central bank held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% this week, ending a streak of seven consecutive cuts. Despite concerns about a slowing Canadian economy, and a lower-than-expected inflation reading earlier this week, the regulator opted not to cut rates due to massive uncertainty about the extent and impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
100 and 25: Canadian industries are busy lobbying one of the world’s largest economies for tariff relief — but, in this case, it’s not the US but China. The world’s number two economy last month slapped a 100% tariff on Canadian canola products and a 25% levy on pork and seafood. The move, which could cost some Canadian meat-processors more than $100 million this year, was made in retaliation for Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese EVs.
110,000: The Trump administration transferred nearly 110,000 acres of federal land along the US southern border to the Army, as part of its efforts to rein in illegal immigration and drug smuggling. The move, which lasts three years, will permit increased federal patrols, broaden the powers of US troops there to detain migrants, and facilitate the construction of more border security infrastructure.
2: Global economic growth will fall below 2% this year, the weakest showing since 2009, excluding the pandemic. That’s the grim new forecast from Fitch Ratings, a leading global ratings group. Fitch said it had slashed its global growth prognosis by 0.4 percentage points because of the expected impact of the US tariffs and the deepening trade war between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies.
6.2: This week Major League Baseball celebrated Jackie Robinson Day, honoring the storied Brooklyn Dodger who became the first Black player to take the field in the big leagues. But 78 years after Robinson broke the color barrier, black players made up just 6.2% of the names on Opening Day rosters this year, down from a peak of about 19% in the early 1980s.
Trump tariff is starting a US-China trade war
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Are the US and China rushing into a trade war?
Absolutely. I mean, if the Americans are actually going to impose tariffs of over 100% on Chinese exports of goods, it's essentially a trade embargo. That is a decoupling, and it's an unmanaged decoupling of US-China direct trade. Still an awful lot of goods from China to get to the United States through third countries. It's not clear all those will be cut off as the US negotiates with a lot of those countries. So people in America will still be buying Chinese goods, but inflation's going to go up. There's no question. And this is going to end up hurting the Chinese even more than it hurts the United States.
With an in-person nuclear talk set for Saturday, how confident is Trump that he can rein in Iran's nuclear program?
Well, it's interesting. What Trump is saying is that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. That's different from what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying, which is that they cannot have a nuclear program of any sort. Trump wants to rein the program in. He did announce that there are going to be direct talks between the US and Iran. Iran didn't quite say that. They said they're having indirect talks, but if they go well, they'll lead to direct, which is certainly a concession to the Americans. And it's interesting that Trump did that while the Israeli prime minister was in the Oval Office visiting him. Bibi thought he was coming over for tariff relief, and what he got was Trump saying that Erdogan's his bestie, that the Israelis should be really thankful they get billions from the US, the tariffs aren't going anywhere, and that there's going to be negotiations with Iran. Really interesting. I think Bibi's got to be unhappy on his flight back to Israel.
Zelensky claims Ukrainian troops have captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia. How does it change the dynamics of the war?
Not at all. It does reflect the fact that Ukraine is under an awful lot of pressure and is trying to do anything they can to stay in the headlines, stay relevant, keep the Americans engaged and focused. I'm not surprised that there are two Chinese nationals fighting in Ukraine. Doesn't mean they were sent by the Chinese PLA. I mean, there are American nationals that have been fighting for the Ukrainians and it's not because they're sort of involved with NATO or sent by the US government. So I really don't think there's any there, but important enough for you to ask question. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
U.S. President Donald Trump attends a press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (not pictured) at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
Trump’s tariffs back on, until they’re not
US President Donald Trump announced Thursday thata 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, reversing comments made one day earlier that suggesteda delay until April.
Why the change? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnicksaid last month that if the two countries made progress on border security, there could be room for negotiation. But Trump claims drugs are still “pouring into our country”and added, “We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA.” He also blamed China for the flow of fentanyl and announced that he would add an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods on the same date.
The reality: US border data showsa 97% decline in fentanyl seizures coming from Canada from December to January. In that time, Canada began deploying its $1.3 billion border security package and appointed a fentanyl czar. Canada’s ambassador to the US, Kirsten Hillmann, also noted that illegal migration from Canada dropped by 90% in recent months, a fact that apparently was positively received in Washington.
What’s next? Canadian public safety officials are in Washington, DC, this week to present evidence of Canada’s progress in a last-ditch attempt to keep tariffs at bay. Additional tariffs on steel and aluminum tariffs are due to stack on top of the 25% tariffs starting March 12.
Could things change again? Based on Trump’s previous flip-flops, anything is possible. For now, industries on both sides of the border are preparing for the worst.
The case for Trump's tariffs
What will President-Elect Donald Trump’s election win mean for the US economy? After years of inflation and stagnating wage growth, millions of voters elected Trump off the back of his promise to usher in a “golden age of America.” Trump has vowed to raise tariffs, slash business regulation, and deport millions of undocumented immigrants, policies he says will put Americans first. But what will that mean practically for workers and consumers? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer is joined by Oren Cass, the founder and chief economist of the conservative think tank American Compass, who thinks Trump’s tariff plan will be a step in the right direction. Many economists argue that Trump's tariff plans will raise consumer prices and spark a global trade war, but Cass argues they're a necessary correction that will incentivize domestic manufacturing, reduce the deficit, and counter China’s unfair trade practices.
“If you actually believe that making things in America matters, then we are going to have to find a way to put a thumb on the scale for getting more of that investment back here,” Cass explains, “And I think that's what a tariff can help do.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
How Trump's tariffs could help (or hurt) the US economy
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Ian Explains: Has a US president ever been arrested before Trump? ›
- Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election? ›
- Ian Explains: Who does China and Russia want to win the US election, Biden or Trump? ›
- Ian Explains: Trump's Republican competition ›
- Canada tariff: Is Trump undermining America’s closest allies? - GZERO Media ›
- Did Wall Street get Trump wrong? Ian Bremmer explains - GZERO Media ›
- What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs? - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's tariffs & the end of globalization - GZERO Media ›
- Who benefits from Trump's tariff wall? | Ian Bremmer's Quick Take - GZERO Media ›
The Graphic Truth: US-China: Cold War or Cold Cash?
In the 10 years since Xi Jinping took power as China’s leader, trade volumes between the world’s top two economies have continued to grow. The same is true of Chinese trade with key US allies like the EU and, to a lesser extent, Japan.
In fact, US-China trade has continued to rise despite the Great US-China Trade War of 2018-2020, when the Trump administration and Beijing slapped tariffs on some $730 billion of each other’s goods. In 2022, US-China trade reached a dizzying record high of $689 billion. For comparison with the actual Cold War — US-Soviet trade throughout the entire 1980s amounted to less than $50 billion.
That said, while overall trade continues to rise between China on one side and the US and its allies on the other, this trade is steadily becoming less important as a part of China’s overall global commerce. That is, China is relying ever more on trade with the rest of the world, and less on Uncle Sam and friends.
To show what that looks like, we track China’s trade with the US, EU, and Japan, and look at how that has figured into China’s total trade between 2012 and now.
A Cold War may come one day, but for now, cold cash is still king.