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German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz attend the 2024 budget debate session of the German lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, in Berlin, Germany, earlier this year.
Will Germany’s ruling coalition survive the winter?
An uncomfortable dynamic: Scholz held a summit on Tuesday to discuss Germany’s economic woes but didn’t even invite his finance minister, Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats, who decided to schedule a competing economic summit the same day.
“The three-party coalition is plagued by a lack of internal discipline, weak leadership by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, record-low approval ratings, and deteriorating trust between its leading figures,” says Jan Techau, a Berlin-based Europe expert at Eurasia Group.
Beyond the economic crisis, issues ranging from the rise of the far-right AfD to growing geopolitical pressures brought on by the war in Ukraine and a more assertive China have placed the German government in “a perfect storm situation,” says Techau.
Germany’s GDP grew in the third quarter, helping it avoid a recession, which Economy Minister Robert Habeck on Wednesday said offers a “ray of hope.”
But there are still concerns that the coalition could soon collapse, which would pave the way for snap elections in the spring. While the probability of an early vote has gone up, Techau says it’s still more likely that the government will complete its full term.
The coalition is held together by the “weakness” of the ruling parties and the fact that “early elections are likely to produce disastrous results for all three of them,” adds Techau.
The next general elections aren’t scheduled until Sept. 2025. We’ll be watching to see whether the German government can keep it together in the meantime.
Johannesburg, South Africa - People are pictured voting at a polling station in Soweto in Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 29, 2024.
South Africa’s ruling party faces coalition conundrum
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, scored its worst election result in 30 years last week, forcing the party into tricky coalition talks. The ANC took just 40% of the vote, down from 58% in 2019 and below the party’s worst-case projections, as support waned due to high corruption, unemployment, and crime. Nelson Mandela’s former party now faces a choice between potential partners for building a coalition, all with a heavy price.
Leading contenders are the Democratic Alliance with 22% of the vote and the uMkhonto weSizwe party, aka MK, with 15%. However, ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe indicatedan alliance with the DA is difficult due to policy differences, particularly on affirmative and universal healthcare. The DA wants toend the ANC’s racial quota system for employers and opposes the recently-passed universal healthcare act but says it is willing to work with the ANC.
The MK is also prepared to work with the ANC, but not if it’s led by Ramaphosa – a difficult starting position for talks. In addition, both the MK and a third possible partner, the Economic Freedom Fighters, campaigned on putting all land under state control and nationalizing mines and banks, issues that make foreign investors and many South Africans nervous.
The EFF is not a viable coalition party by itself since it obtained only 9% of the vote, which would fall just short of a majority for a coalition with the ANC. It is also considered “too erratic in its orientation, too in your face, and too unreasonable in its policy demands,”according to political analyst Susan Booysen.
Eurasia Group analyst Ziyanda Stuurman says she’s now watching provincial-level leaders, whose support or opposition to a coalition with the DA will prove determinative.
“Ramaphosa and his camp will need support from them for an ANC-DA governance model, or he could face a fast-moving rejection of his plans to form and lead a new government, and his allies may be swept out of power in a revolt against their leadership of the party,” she explained.
The new parliamentmust be sworn in within two weeks, and the president will then be chosen. Sources say that Ramaphosa is unlikely to resign despite the historically poor results, but we’ll be watching to see what deal he cuts to try and survive.15th January 2024 Geert Wilders arrives at palace on the Dam for the Dutch Kings annual New Years Reception.
Wilders in the wilderness: Far-right Dutchman drops PM bid
Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders will not become prime minister of his country, despite getting the most votes in last year’s election.
Although Wilders’ PVV party swept to victory on a scorching anti-Islam and anti-migrant “Dutch First” message, he still needed coalition partners to form a government. Months of talks with a handful of center-right parties ended this week without support for Wilders as PM.
The result prolongs the political uncertainty for the Netherlands, which looks headed for a bizarre “extra-parliamentary cabinet” headed by a technocrat cabinet in which none of the ministers is from the PVV or the other three parties.
On the one hand, the episode is another example of the practical limits for European far-right parties, despite their rising electoral fortunes. (We saw something similar in Portugal last weekend, where the far-right Chega party was sweet at the polls but still too toxic for a coalition.)
But watch closely. Wilders has said he would “like a right-wing cabinet.” Will Wilders, given his obvious popularity, be able to pull policy rightward even from outside the government?