Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro gives a press statement in Brasilia.
What We’re Watching: Bolsonaro's broken silence, Iranian attack plans, Bibi’s return, Colombia & Venezuela’s lunch date
Bolsonaro lets his friend say the hard part
In a prepared and combative statement lasting less than two minutes, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Tuesday did not concede the election he lost on Sunday. He also failed to congratulate — or even mention — his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Instead, he welcomed ongoing nationwide protests by pro-Bolsonaro truckers, saying they’re the result of a “feeling of indignation and injustice about how the elections were conducted.” He cast himself as a person who plays by the constitutional rules and said he was proud to have stood for freedom of markets, religion, and expression. “The right has truly risen in Brazil,” he said. After Bolsonaro walked off without taking questions, one of his closest allies stepped up to the podium to say Bolsonaro had in fact authorized him to begin the presidential transition. As that legal and logistical process gets underway, we are watching closely to see how far Bolsonaro pushes the popular protests to try to gain political leverage. Bolsonaro lost to former President Lula by the narrowest electoral margin in Brazil’s modern history. Buckle up.
Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia?
Tehran is reportedly preparing imminent attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and northern Iraq that could put the US military at risk. Based on shared Saudi intelligence, the news has put the Pentagon on “high alert.” The US has 10 military bases and about 3,000 troops in Saudi Arabia and roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq. Riyadh says the plot is an attempt by the Islamic Republic to distract from the combustible situation at home, where nationwide protests – bordering on revolution – over the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, 22, have consumed the country for more than six weeks. In recent weeks, Tehran has also bombarded Kurdish towns in northern Iraq that it blames for fomenting unrest in Iran (Amini was Kurdish). While many called for President Joe Biden to sever ties with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman after Riyadh recently snubbed the US by cutting OPEC+’s daily oil production, this episode reveals that – for better or worse – Washington and Riyadh’s national security interests remain intertwined.
Bibi is almost back
Israelis went to the polls on Tuesday for the fifth time in under four years, and the results look very good for … former Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. With 85% of the vote counted, Bibi’s Likud Party has won the most seats – 31 – while his right-wing allies also appear to have the numbers to help him pass the 61-seat threshold (out of 120) needed to form a government in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Interestingly, voter turnout was at a two-decade high. Far-right parties including the anti-Arab, anti-LGBTQ Religious Zionism bloc, as well as several ultra-Orthodox parties, reaped solid results and will be Bibi’s coalition partners. Still, there are about 500,000 votes from soldiers, prisoners and diplomats that are yet to be counted, but soldiers' votes traditionally skew right. Longtime leader and divisive figure Bibi Netanyahu appears to be on the cusp of victory.
Colombia-Venezuela lunch date
Colombia’s recently elected left-wing President Gustavo Petro traveled to Caracas on Tuesday for a lunch date with Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Relations between Venezuela and Colombia fell apart in 2019 during mass protests against Maduro’s regime and clashes along their shared border. But since Petro took office in August, tensions have eased and the borders have reopened. The two leaders planned to discuss the further easing of tensions, joint approaches to protecting the Amazon, and the surprising idea of reintegrating Venezuela — which the UN recently accused of crimes against humanity — into regional human rights bodies. At the same time, Petro wants Venezuela to act as a guarantor for fresh peace talks with the holdout Colombian rebels of the ELN. The meeting between Washington’s closest South American ally, Colombia, and its biggest bete noire, Venezuela, comes as the US is exploring ways to ease oil sanctions on the Venezuelan petro-state in exchange for progress towards fair elections. See our recent interview with Petro here.Supporters of Iraqi leader Moqtada al-Sadr swim as they protest inside the Republican Palace in the Green Zone, in Baghdad.
What We're Watching: Deadly clashes in Iraq, China-Russia military drills, Colombia-Venezuela restore ties
Iraq’s deepening political crisis
Hundreds of Iraqi protesters stormed the government palace and took to the streets Monday after popular Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose bloc won the most seats in parliamentary elections last fall, announced he was stepping back from politics. At least 30 people were killed and more than 380 were injured in clashes between al-Sadr supporters, Iran-aligned groups, and Iraqi security forces. Moreover, al-Sadr announced he was starting a hunger strike until the violence stops. It's the the worst violence Baghdad has seen in years, most of which is concentrated around the heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses foreign embassies and government buildings. For almost a year, Iran-aligned parties have prevented al-Sadr from forming a new government, prompting his 73 lawmakers to resign en masse this summer in protest, which in turn led to sectarian clashes. Al-Sadr — who has long railed against Iran’s influence over Iraqi social and political life— retains widespread influence over some institutions and has proved adept at whipping his supporters into a frenzy. (Last month, hundreds of his supporters breached Baghdad’s Green Zone and occupied parliament.) The Supreme Court will decide on Tuesday whether parliament will be dissolved and new elections called – though the constitution says the legislature must agree to dissolve itself. That’s unlikely given that parliament is now dominated by a pro-Iran bloc, which became the biggest parliamentary faction by default after al-Sadr withdrew. Iraq’s military announced a nationwide curfew as the situation continues to deteriorate.
Updated on Aug. 30.
China, Russia hold joint drills
China and Russia kicked off on Monday joint military exercises in Russia’s far east. The week-long exercise occurs every four years, though this year the geopolitical landscape is ... quite different. In 2018, Russia had about 300,000 troops participate in the drills, though only 50,000 are expected to take part this year given that up to 75% of Russian troops are busy fighting the war in Ukraine, causing some observers to say this is merely an act of political theatre. In pushing through with the drills despite Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and China's stepped-up war games around Taiwan, Beijing and Moscow likely want to show they're doing business as usual under the friendship "without limits" agreement signed between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping earlier this year. What's more, the drills, known as the Vostok exercises, which means “east,” are a good opportunity for Moscow to demonstrate it still has strong military ties with other former Soviet republics and crucial non-aligned countries, like India. Other friendly nations like Laos, Nicaragua, and Syria will join the drills, too. This development comes as Moscow is keen to flex its military muscle given that Ukraine on Monday began a counteroffensive to take back territory from Russian forces in the south.
Colombia-Venezuela ties back on
Colombia and Venezuela have reestablished full diplomatic relations after three years. Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s new leftist president, previously vowed to restore ties with Venezuela's strongman President Nicolás Maduro, who’s long been accused by the West of using an iron fist to quash dissent. Indeed, Colombia’s previous conservative president, Iván Duque, joined the ranks of dozens of countries — including the US, UK and EU — in rejecting Maduro's sham reelection in 2018 — and recognizing then-Speaker Juan Guiado as the country’s legitimate president. Maduro, for his part, severed ties with Bogota in 2019 after the Venezuelan opposition tried to cross over from Colombia to deliver truckloads of food and medicine. (Since 2017, more than 90% of Venezuelans have been living below the poverty line.) Bogotá and Caracas have agreed to reopen the 1,200-mile land border in hopes of boosting economic ties. Colombia’s economy minister says that bilateral trade could reach $1.2 billion this year and grow to a whopping $4.5 billion by 2026, in large part due to Venezuela's natural gas exports. That would be a massive boon for Venezuela, whose economy has been in dire straits since the US imposed crippling economic sanctions in 2015, giving rise to a devastating refugee crisis.