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Trump likely can’t steal the election, but he can make it dangerous
Donald Trump’s big Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday made news because of the racist wisecracks of an opening act, but jumpy Democrats seized on an off-the-cuff remark.
“I think with our little secret we are gonna do really well with the House,” Trump said, gesturing to House Speaker Mike Johnson. “Our little secret is having a big impact. He and I have a little secret. We will tell you what it is when the race is over.”
Democrats are so rattled by the prospect of Republicans trying to game the system on Election Night that they decided Trump was hinting at a secret plan to overturn the election.
On CNN, Democratic Congressman Dan Goldmanwarned of a plot to decide the election results in a House vote.
“I suspect … Donald Trump’s little secret plan with Mike Johnson is a backup plan for when he loses and he tries to go to the House of Representatives to throw out the Electoral College … and try to overturn this election.”
By hook or by crook
Johnson said later that Trump was talking about their get-out-the-vote plans, which makes sense in the context. But Democrats are concerned that Trump and his allies have a secret plan to try to take power, perhaps by forcing a vote in the House.
But it does not look easy. The contingent election is designed for situations where nobody wins a majority of Electoral College votes. The last time that happened was in 1824, when there were four presidential candidates. That should not happen next week, since no other candidates are on the ballot, but Trump is expected to try to get Republican legislatures to send alternative slates of electors in states he loses, setting up a situation where Congress could choose which electors to pick. Theoretically, Johnson could hold a special vote in the House of Representatives and make Trump president.
Trump likely does want to do that, says Richard Hasen, director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA Law School.
“I imagine he will be trying to find ways to get to a contingent election in the House — maybe that’s the little secret — but with our existing rules, that would be very hard to do as it would require finding a way to assure that Harris would not have a majority in each house,” he said.
Nervous about the Supreme Court
It looks highly unlikely, in part because it would require the cooperation of many Republicans who would be reluctant to overturn clear results from voters. And the Electoral Count Reform Act, which was passed with bipartisan support, tightened the rules around certification. Trump is more likely to try to flip a close state in the courts by challenging some contested ballots, as happened in 2000, when George W. Bush prevailed over Al Gore after the Supreme Court ruled that Bush had won Florida’s Electoral College votes.
“If the race is as tight as it was in 2000, like Bush v. Gore tight, then there will likely be a recount in a state that matters, and issues may get litigated all the way to the Supreme Court,” says Hasen.
“The 2020 election was not close like 2000. It was over 10,000 ballots difference, and multiple states mattered. If that’s what we see, and Trump loses, then I expect Trump will try litigation and political strategies to try to change the results to his favor.”
There are 115 voting lawsuits open at various courts. If the Republicans can find a cause to get to the Supreme Court, they might hope that the 6-3 Republican majority of justices will rule in their favor. The court surprised observers by ruling in Trump’s favor in the presidential immunity case, and on Wednesday, the court approved a controversial Republican purge of voters, so Democrats are nervous about what might happen if Trump manages to get a case to the court.
Drop boxes firebombed
The polls could not be closer, and both sides will have armies of lawyers standing by on election night to try to seek advantage.
“Although recounts very rarely change the election outcome, and the courts have consistently rebuffed such shenanigans from the Trump team in the past, these lawsuits will be headline-grabbing events and will perpetuate uncertainty,” says Natasha Gaither, a researcher at Eurasia Group.
Even if Trump’s lawyers do not prevail, that uncertainty could lead to violence.
“We are likely to witness sporadic clashes between law enforcement and extremist partisans on either side of the aisle as long as certification of the results is deferred by legal fights,” says Gaither.
Election night will be tense, with angry partisans gathering outside counting places as mail-in and absentee ballots are tabulated.
Trump keeps telling his supporters — without evidence — that the election could be stolen by cheating Democrats, and they believe him. Ballot drop boxes were firebombed on Monday, for example. More than 7 in 10 Americans are worried about election-related violence.
It would be nice to tell them they needn’t worry, but they are right to do so.
Premier Danielle Smith tours Jasper, Alberta, Canada, in July.
Chemtrail conspiracy takes flight over Alberta
British journalist Christopher Hitchens once described conspiracy theories as “the exhaust fumes of democracy.” But it is doubtful he was referring to so-called “chemtrails.” A slightly unhinged school of thought now has it that vapor trails in the sky are sprayed deliberately to poison or control the people below.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was asked about chemtrails at a town hall in Edmonton last weekend and, after being heckled for saying no one is allowed to spray anything over the province, conceded she’d been told the source might be the US Department of Defense, according to Global News.
A reporter who contacted the Pentagon was told they didn’t know what Smith was talking about and referred him to the North American Aerospace Defence Command, which said it is not conducting any flights that involve spraying chemicals.
One health expert dismissed the idea as a baseless, “ridiculous” conspiracy theory, while federal Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault said Smith’s comment was “simply bonkers.”
The premier later clarified that there is no evidence of chemtrails and she was simply sharing what she’d been told.
But, then again, she would say that …
Big week for the “Big Lie” in the Supreme Court
In its final week in session, the US Supreme Court will decide two cases involving Donald Trump’s attempt to overthrow the 2020 election. Both cases stem from a conspiracy spread by Trump and his allies that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election through voter fraud. This stolen election conspiracy, dubbed the “Big Lie,” has deeply wounded American democracy, and it motivated thousands of Trump’s supporters to storm the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
The first case, on presidential immunity, looks at whether former presidents can be criminally prosecuted for actions taken while in office. Trump is using this claim to delay his federal indictment in DC – arguing that presidential immunity prevents him from being prosecuted for his actions on Jan. 6. Special counsel Jack Smith has argued that the broad scope Trump proposes would give presidents a free pass for criminal conduct.
When the court heard the oral arguments in April, they appeared ready to rule that presidents have some degree of immunity, which would further delay the DC case and make it all but guaranteed that it is not decided before November’s election.
“It’s already looking pretty difficult for the district court judge to proceed with a full pre-election trial,” says Eurasia Group analyst Noah Daponte-Smith, “but the Supreme Court could essentially put the nail in the coffin there. With the other delays in the documents trial and the Georgia case, it’s looking increasingly likely that Trump’s Manhattan conviction will be the only one he faces before the election.”
In the second case, the Supreme Court will decide whether the Department of Justice can use a federal obstruction statute to charge rioters involved in Jan. 6. A decision against the DOJ could not only disrupt the prosecutions of hundreds of rioters but also eliminate half of the charges against Trump in the DC case.
Regardless of how the cases are decided, the damage done to American democracy because of the stolen election conspiracy cannot be undone. Nearly 300 election deniers ran for state and congressional offices in 2022, and 159 of them won. A 2023 Monmouth poll found that 30% of Americans believe the election was fraudulent, and that number jumps to 57% among white Americans. Only 20% of Americans feel “very confident” in the integrity of the US election system.
Why was the stolen election conspiracy so widely believed? Like all good conspiracies, this one spread like wildfire because it had kernels of truth and grounds for doubt. The truth: The 2020 election was unprecedented, largely because of the COVID-19 pandemic increasing absentee voting. Grounds for doubt: Few Americans understand the procedures and processes behind elections, making it easy for falsehoods about voting machines, mail-in ballots, and vote counts to take root.
In 2020, states saw an uptick in voters opting to vote by mail – particularly among Democrats – because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This delayed the vote count, with election experts warning ahead of time that many states would at first appear red, only to shift blue once all the ballots were counted. When this happened, Trump doubled down on undermining the mail-in ballots, saying “last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key states, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE.”
The 2020 attack on the Capitol was deadly, resulting in five deaths and numerous injuries. But those who carried it out believed they were defending democracy from voter fraud, even as they hindered a cornerstone of the democratic process: the peaceful transfer of power. There are already signs that Trump is likely to claim voter fraud if he loses in 2024, with an analysis by The New York Times finding that he has cast doubt about the fairness of the 2024 election about once a day, on average, since he announced his candidacy. At a minimum, this could lead to more voters losing faith in elections. Or in the worst case, it could spur another Jan. 6-like event if Biden wins in November.
That’s why GZERO did a deep dive into the conspiracy theories that are having the biggest impact on politics in a new immersive experience, The Disinformation Election: Will the Wildfire of Conspiracy Theories Impact the Vote?Click here to go down the rabbit hole.
The Disinformation Election: Will the wildfire of conspiracy theories impact the vote?
Trust in institutions is at an all-time low, and only 44% of Americans have confidence in the honesty of elections. Distrust and election-related disinformation are leaving society vulnerable to conspiracy theories.
Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, notes that American democracy is in crisis largely because “one thing not in short supply this election season: conspiracy theories.”
As part of GZERO Media’s election coverage, we are tracking the impact of disinformation and conspiracy theories on democracy. To get a sense of how this election may be pulled down a dark and dangerous rabbit hole, click here for our interactive guide to conspiracy theories.
US Capitol under attack on January 6th.
Ian Bremmer: American democracy at risk thanks to conspiracy theories
American democracy is in crisis, says Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer, largely because “one thing not in short supply this election season: conspiracy theories.”
Trust in institutions – from the Supreme Court to public schools – is at an all-time low, and only 44% of Americans have confidence in the honesty of elections. Distrust and election-related disinformation are leaving society vulnerable to conspiracy theories.
Historically, conspiracy theories have been most likely to crop up during times of social, political, or economic upheaval — times when people need to make sense of a chaotic situation. And US society is ripe for that today, with 70% of Americans saying they believe the nation is in crisis and at risk of failing.
We’re already seeing “the explosion of belief in things that aren’t so,” says Bremmer.
Case in point: A jury of his peers recently found former President Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the so-called hush money criminal case. Rather than settling the debate over Trump’s guilt or innocence, however, it has breathed life into old and new conspiracy theories.
Republicans said the verdict was evidence that the deep state had rigged the justice system – and the election – against Trump. In a new twist, a whopping 80% of them agreed the charges were filed against the former president at the direction of the White House.
Conspiracy theory mania, says Bremmer, is taking off thanks to “Trump actively campaigning on Joe Biden rigging the criminal justice system and the 2020 election, conspiracy-heavy Robert F Kennedy Jr. as the most popular third-party candidate in decades, huge numbers of bots promoting disinformation on social media, and algorithmic promotion of far left and right political extremes driving citizen-as-consumer attention.”
So conspiracy theories aren’t as fringe as they once were. They are taking root in the hearts and minds of our family members, colleagues, and friends. Critically, they are influencing political outcomes around the world.
That’s why GZERO is offering a deep dive into conspiracy theories, with an interactive experience entitled: The Disinformation Election: Will the wildfire of conspiracy theories impact the vote?
You can’t debunk these theories unless you understand what’s fueling them. Join us as we take you down the rabbit hole of some of the most influential conspiracy theories, from the Great Replacement Theory and the 2020 stolen election to the anti-vaccine movement and QAnon, to find the kernels of truth that help them spread like wildfire.