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Protesters demanded the ouster of South Korean President Yoon in central Seoul on March 29, 2025.
South Korean leader to learn his political fate on Friday
Controversy on the peninsula. The impeachment case revolves around whether Yoon unconstitutionally declared martial law on Dec. 3, a move that lasted all of six hours. The National Assembly, which is dominated by the center-left Democratic Party, impeached the center-right president 11 days after the incident on the grounds that he violated his constitutional duty (and did so with the support of a handful of lawmakers from Yoon’s own party). While many demonstrated against Yoon’s declaration of martial law, his conservative backers – a small but vocal minority – have taken to the streets in recent months to show their support for the president.
Don’t bet against Yoon’s removal from office. Six of the court’s eight justices need to vote for Yoon’s removal if he is to be removed from office, an outcome that Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan believes is more likely than not.
“Public support for Yoon’s removal remains high, and the legal merits of the case against Yoon are solid. Excusing his martial law declaration would also risk normalizing it for future leaders,” he said.
Should the court rule in Yoon’s favor, he would return to office immediately, but if the court rules against him, as expected, South Korea must hold presidential elections within 60 days. Regardless of the ruling, Yoon still faces criminal charges for alleged treason – the one charge for which a sitting president is not immune. While the legal system may stem the criminal proceedings if he retains his presidential immunity, it is far more likely to proceed if he is removed from office.
Schools will be closed Friday, and police will be out in force in anticipation of mass protests, which are likely no matter how the court rules, says Chan.
Sea change for Seoul? If Yoon’s impeachment is formalized, acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will remain at the helm until an election takes place this spring. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, of the center-left, is the firm favorite to win at the polls. With a more dovish foreign policy stance, South Korea under Lee would likely seek warmer ties with China and North Korea, says Chan.
“Lee is a progressive populist who has been skeptical of the pro-US and pro-Japan tilt that South Korea’s foreign policy took under Yoon,” he said.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to the nation at the Presidential Office in Seoul, South Korea, December 12, 2024.
South Korean president’s removal slows down over court vacancies
On Tuesday, the floor leader for South Korea’s newly-impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol’s party said it would be inappropriate to fill vacancies on the constitutional court with the powers of an acting president, setting up a fight aimed at slow-rolling Yoon’s final removal from office.
Wait, how is Yoon impeached but not gone? It’s a two-step process. The National Assembly was able to clear the two-thirds supermajority to impeach Yoon on Saturday, and he was immediately suspended from office. Now at least six justices on the constitutional court need to approve the legality of the impeachment — and this isn’t a given. The court overturned the much more controversial impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004. Once that hurdle is cleared, Yoon is gone for good, and a sixty day clock starts ticking down to fresh elections.
There’s just one problem. Three of the court’s nine seats are vacant, meaning the entire bench would need to vote unanimously to remove Yoon. Even though the facts are pretty stacked against Yoon, just one justice could theoretically put him back in office, which is why the liberal opposition wants to fill the three seats.
Ideally, as quickly as possible, because their leader, and presumptive presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung is in legal hot water of his own. He was convicted of violating election laws and handed a one-year suspended sentence in November, which could prevent him from running for president — if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the opposition “recognizes that the longer this drags out, the greater the chances that the Supreme Court will have time to rule on Lee’s conviction,” and possibly keep him out of the race. We’re watching how acting president Han Duck-soo handles the vacancies, as well as how the criminal case against Yoon and his collaborators proceeds.