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Flags hung at the reconvening of the COP16 conference in Rome last month, with an inset image of Adrian Gahan, the ocean lead for Campaign for Nature.
What happened at the UN Biodiversity Summit in Rome, and what comes next?
Countries gathered in Rome in late February to finalize key decisions left unresolved after last year’s COP16 summit in Colombia. In Italy, negotiators agreed to the first global deal for finance conservation, which aims to achieve the landmark goal of protecting and restoring 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030. Eurasia Group’s María José Valverde interviewed Adrian Gahan, the ocean lead for Campaign for Nature, a global campaign founded in 2018 to secure the 30x30 target, as we look ahead to the UN ocean conference and continue building on the nature agenda for 2025.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
María José Valverde: What are your expectations for the achievement of the 30x30 goal in the marine space, keeping all upcoming UN environmental processes (biodiversity, plastics, ocean, climate) in mind?
Adrian Gahan: This is an important year because we’re only five years away from the 2030 target. And the reality is that we're not making progress at the pace that we should. Something really important that can happen this year is the ratification of the High Seas Treaty. Whilst it’s been agreed, it needs to be ratified by at least 60 countries before it comes into legal effect, and at the moment, we’re at 17 countries. We should aim to get those remaining 43 countries in 2025, and we need to do it before Q4 for the treaty to come into legal effect this year. This would represent a significant step forward, and it'd be great if going into COP30 in Brazil we’re already counting down the ticker on the treaty taking legal effect.
Could you explain why this High Seas Treaty is so important?
Before this treaty was agreed in 2022, there was no legal instrument to manage biodiversity on the high seas, areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) 200 nautical miles off of a country’s coast. Instead, you had a patchwork of preexisting organizations — the International Whaling Commission, which is species-specific, and the International Seabed Authority, which covers the seabed but doesn't regulate the water column above the seabed. But they couldn’t establish marine protected areas covering the whole water column or all flora and fauna within it because they didn't have the legal capacity to do that. The Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty, or BBNJ, will allow countries to agree on setting parts of the international waters aside for nature in the context of all of these pre-existing organizations. And that is an innovation.
The high seas treaty could impact interests in critical minerals, deep sea mining, and those benefitting from marine genetic materials. The recently launched Cali Fund could also be a financial instrument for BBNJ areas. What are your thoughts on its potential implications?
This is one of the reasons why it’s taking countries a long time to ratify this treaty. They need to figure out what are the benefit-sharing mechanisms, what are the legal and financial instruments involved, etc. A lot of it has to be discovered as we go along. My headline observation around digital sequence information and the Cali Fund is that if it’s going to be meaningful, it has to be a regulatory requirement. That also needs to apply to BBNJ areas, which obviously have more complexity to it by definition because it’s beyond the territorial boundaries of any of these countries. But to be effective, it needs to be legally binding.
What’s at stake if we don't reach an agreement on finance at COP16.2, and what are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the marine sector?
The money is very important as part of the biodiversity COP process, not just because of the funding, but also because it’s a currency of seriousness. If we are asking the Global South to protect some of the last great wild places in the world that are providing vital infrastructure to the whole planet, then we need to be prepared to pay for it. This is not about charity – nor should it be considered aid. Donor countries need to show seriousness on this, and finance is one of the ways to do that.
It’s also important to consider our political context. Given budget and geopolitical constraints in the Global North, we need to continuously make the case as to why this is important. It is not just because nature is beautiful and special. We’re protecting it because it provides us all with an essential service, and this is an extension of our national security budget. We need to keep making that case. We also need to keep making the case that the private sector, which is making a lot of money and continuing to drop significant externalities onto this infrastructure, needs to pay its way. That’s an example of where governments need to intervene more in the market: tax and regulate.
The plastics negotiations have a lot of interlinkages with the biodiversity talks because of the Global Biodiversity Framework’s (GBF) Target 7 on pollution. Do you see any implications from the UN plastics treaty negotiations on your work?
We focus more on spatial targets and protection because the biggest threat to the global ocean, other than climate change, is not plastics, it’s overfishing. This is really worth reminding people. Plastics and pollution are very serious, but overfishing is a bigger threat. The crisis of overfishing is an absence of something, which is a harder narrative to sell than showing people an ocean full of plastic. The risk of the plastics narrative is that people think using paper straws means the crisis is solved. But, the ocean is facing so many more threats than plastic straws. However, the issue can be an important way to introduce people to the crises of climate change, coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and invasive species.
My final point on that is that the single biggest polluter of plastic in the ocean is not PepsiCo or Coca-Cola — it’s the global fishing industry. The single biggest source of plastic in the ocean is discarded fishing nets known as ghost gear. It doesn’t biodegrade, it’s hugely destructive, and it’s very helpful to the global fishing industry if everyone obsesses about plastic straws and bottles instead.
Conversations around fishing are tricky because they become a discussion about livelihoods and food security. How do you navigate these difficult issues?
It’s much easier to campaign against Coca-Cola than it is to campaign against local fishermen dropping their nets in the ocean. However, the most destructive fishing is conducted by very large and wealthy industrial fishing vessels, almost all owned by rich countries from Europe and Asia, not by local small-scale fishers. That said, there also needs to be training and engagement at the local level, which is difficult and time-consuming. One answer is to set parts of the ocean aside where you state there’s no fishing, and that makes it a lot easier to regulate. This requires government intervention and financial support for fishers who need to, for example, change their gear types or face a reduced catch for a short period while the spillover effect takes place. It becomes very complicated, and that’s why we’re making very slow progress toward the 30x30 goal.
One of the things we’ve been paying attention to is the nature tech market. What are some concrete examples of nature tech in the marine sector, and what role is the private sector playing?
I think it’s a really positive story. One of the most important, disruptive technologies that has helped in establishing and enforcing marine protected areas is satellite technology. I've been working for years on a UK program called Blue Belt. We work with local communities that are concerned about illegal fishing coming into their waters and far too remote to have their own enforcement capacity. The UK Government runs the satellite monitoring programs and then provides them with the intel. They can tag any suspicious activity and pursue the vessel legally through the Port State Measures Agreement. It’s a legal process where, if one of these vessels fishes illegally in these protected areas and then pulls into a port to offload the fish, the port state can take legal measures against the vessel, even though the vessel didn’t break any laws in that port state. This has been a very effective tool for protecting these areas.
This would not have been possible probably 15 years ago. That’s a really positive tech story to tell and something people should take some hope from because presumably this technology will only continue to improve and get more affordable. Bad news can be very overwhelming for people. So I think it’s good to remind people that good people are doing good things in the world.
María José (Majo) Valverde is a global sustainability analyst at Eurasia Group.
In this photo illustration, the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP28 UAE logo is seen on a smartphone screen.
COP28’s challenge: growing problems, shrinking credibility
As 60,000 delegates gather today in Dubai for the opening of COP28, scant progress on longstanding climate goals and an emerging scandal over the fossil fuel industry’s influence over the UN climate conference is undermining COP’s credibility.
On the eve of the summit, leaked documents suggested that the UAE, a major oil producer which is hosting the summit, has been using the occasion to press for oil deals. Talk about foxes in the hen house ...
What’s more, the heads of the world’s two largest and most polluting economies won’t even be there: US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are skipping the event altogether.
So what’s on the agenda? One major aim is finding money for the so-called “loss and damages fund” that delegates agreed to create last year.
By 2030, the fund is meant to disburse $100 billion to help developing countries recover from climate-related disasters and adapt to a worsening trend of climate change that they themselves played almost no role in bringing about.
But so far the fund has been hamstrung by disagreements about how much major polluters like the US, EU, India, and China should have to contribute – the Chinese and Indians don’t want to put up nearly as much money as other major polluters. There’s also no agreement about how quickly to phase out fossil fuels. The US and EU want to move more quickly on those phaseouts than many emerging market countries in Asia and Latin America are comfortable with.
But it’s not all bad COP, there’s some good COP too. All the major players appear ready to commit to tripling renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030, for example. An agreement to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050 also appears promising, though some EU member states, like Germany, are likely to object.
And some important topics are new to the agenda, including addressing growing water scarcity and finding ways to balance the needs of food production with emissions reduction (also the focus of this week’s GZERO Live event “High and Dry: Tackling Global Water Stress”). That’s good news according to Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for climate and sustainability.
“If you approach climate separate from water, separate from agriculture, separate from biodiversity,” she warns. “You end up creating problems that then you have to fix later.”
Still, the biggest challenge for COP28 is about something bigger than any one policy area: More than a quarter of a century after the first COP was held in Berlin, does the UN-backed climate agenda still have credibility?
The world is making agonizingly slow progress on carbon emission reductions, and its targets to reach net zero emissions by 2050 will require changes so large as to be unrealistic.
For more on what to expect from COP28, don’t miss our interview with Eurasia Group Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who was a part of Canada’s delegation when the Paris Agreement was adopted at COP21 in 2015.
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A person walks past a "#COP28" sign in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Controversies at COP28 and the future of climate change
Global climate talks are kicking off at COP28 on Thursday amid revelations that its host, the United Arab Emirates, is using the event to lobby for fossil fuel production. On the one hand, no one is surprised. Climate activists were already outraged and suspicious that one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers was hosting a meeting meant to move the world away from their production. On the other, as scientists uncover that climate change is progressing faster than expected, are the few global institutions meant to be speeding up our transition to carbon neutrality actually working against it?
For answers, we looked to Eurasia Group Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, who was a part of Canada’s delegation when the Paris Agreement was adopted at COP21 in 2015.
What was the Paris Agreement, and what has been your experience of COP meetings in the past?
Gerald Butts: The Paris Agreement was really about countries agreeing to take their own path to a common outcome. Every COP since then has been an attempt to fill in the blanks of how different countries are going to get to [carbon neutral] and serves as a reporting and accountability mechanism of how much progress each country has made.
I think that from a big-picture dynamic, the really hard issues still haven't been settled. Like, what is the role of oil and gas in a net zero world and in a decarbonized energy system? Like, who is going to pay for all of the negative consequences? Or, who is going to pay for poorer countries to be able to absorb the most negative consequences of climate change?
Those three big issues that haven't been sorted. And they're kind of coming to a head for obvious reasons because a country whose economy is dominated by oil and gas is hosting COP for the first time.
Speaking of which, what do you think of the recent revelations that the UAE is using the event to prompt fossil fuel negotiations?
I think actually the story is kind of a Rorschach test. The people who had always been suspicious of the UAE's motives for wanting to host COP will point to it and say, “Aha, that's what we were suspicious of!” And on the other hand, the UAE will say, “Well, we're an oil and gas producer, of course, we're going to try and sign oil and gas contracts.”
And that just kind of makes the point of the ... dare I say it, GULF between one side and the other. The UAE doesn't see anything wrong with what it's doing. While advocates for more rapid decarbonization see everything wrong with what the UAE is doing.
And we're kind of coming to a head here. The International Energy Agency released a really important report last week on the role that oil and gas can play in the transition. And it rightly rendered a judgment that oil and gas has been an impediment to decarbonization rather than a facilitator of it. And we're long past the day where you can say one thing and do another.
And whether from that report or in your own opinion, do you see a role for oil and gas in the decarbonization transition?
I see a theoretical one for sure. I mean, I think that an enormous amount of capital from the existing energy system has been absorbed by existing providers of energy and that if they were to deploy that capital to expedite decarbonization, that would be positive. In a nutshell, that's what the IEA's 150-page report says, if I can summarize it. But when you look at the balance sheets of these companies, what they're actually deploying capital to do, it's not that, it's to develop oil and gas.
Keeping on this subject, do you think revelations like these [about the UAE] hurt the momentum of the climate change movement? You said we're at a breaking point at this controversial COP28. What do you think the effects are going to be?
I always think it's a good thing when hard questions get clearly put on the table. And that's what's happening here. I think it'll feel like a setback in the short term, but it's actually a good thing that we're talking about real things at COP.
I think the next big COP will be, not next year, but the year after that, when Brazil will be hosting. Constructing a positive path between this COP and the Brazil COP30 will be a really important thing for the future of COP.
Some say that progressive candidates haven't proven they can win by pushing an aggressive climate change agenda. Do you think this is a problem? How could climate change become a more winning campaign platform for progressive candidates?
Butts: Well, I wouldn't agree with that assessment, actually. I think there are lots of examples of successful candidates who ran on aggressive climate agendas — Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron.
I think the challenge is this inflationary environment is really bad for incumbents. It's coincidental that a lot of those incumbents tend to be pro-climate forward, so to speak. But inflation doesn't discriminate against governments of any ideological stripe. It's just really bad if you're in power when it happens.
You’ve said that you remain optimistic about climate because the youth around the globe will vote or push their leaders to act in their best interests. I wonder if we will be given enough time to do that when you read about climate change progressing faster than anyone thought.
I think that's still true, actually. I think the people that are being hurt most by the inflation environment are homeowners, right? There are people who have mortgages. Sadly for your generation, you haven't been able to break into that market en masse yet. Which may turn out to be in the short term, a good thing, right, that you're not going to be trying to scramble to find 30 to 40% more of your monthly budget to pay your mortgage.
But I think in the short term, it's going to be hard because people are going to be focused on, short term, keeping their heads above water. Not long-term about keeping everybody's heads above water.
What do you think of President Joe Biden skipping this year's COP to focus on the Middle East and the upcoming election?
I think it's a bit of a sign that he thinks that this COP is not something he wants his brand associated with. I think that says a lot about the dynamic that we talked about 10 minutes ago. The United States this year will break a record for oil and gas production, but at the same time, they've got the most aggressive climate legislation in the history of the United States and one of the most aggressive anywhere in the world.
So they're trying to ride two horses. It's a domestic example of the global problem that the time for riding two horses is coming to an end.
I think if this COP was in Brazil, he'd be there.