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The world "is more coupled than we think"
Rania Al-Mashat, the Egyptian Minister of International Cooperation, tells GZERO's Tony Maciulis that the pandemic taught us how interconnected we truly are; no one nation can solve a problem as big as climate change, food insecurity, or geopolitical strife on its own. Al-Mashat makes the case for looking beyond the short term problems of inflation and toward longer-term solutions for the most pressing issues of our time.
In a conversation at the World Bank/IMF spring meetings in Washington, DC, she explains the key outcomes of last year's UN Climate Conference COP27, held in her home country, and what the road ahead looks like for climate financing and confronting the looming sovereign debt crisis.
Al-Mashat also states that in the coming months we will learn the new framework and path forward for the World Bank and IMF, institutions whose models have been both challenged and criticized during this historic period of global crises.
COP27: Not good enough
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here on a Quick Take to get you kicked off for your week.
I thought I would talk about the Climate Summit, which has just concluded in Sharm El Sheik, the COP27 was not one of the better moments for global climate response. If there was a big win, and I wouldn't call it a big win, but at least it's progress, it's on the establishment of a loss and damage fund and the idea is to use funds from industrialized countries that pay for climate related losses that are already being experienced in the billions and billions of dollars in poorer countries. The developing countries have been demanding the developed world indeed put such a fund together. The problem is of course, that in addition to the reluctance to get it done, just saying that you have such a fund does not have a mechanism for distributing money, a mechanism for raising money, and certainly there is no cash, there's no financing yet. Maybe over time you'll see the private sector make donations into this fund, maybe you'll see some government commitments but for now at least, it's an announcement of intentionality without any there there. That's the big news, right? That's the actual major headline that came out.
Besides that, the fact that the United States and China are talking together, once again, they are the two largest carbon emitters on the planet and so clearly talking is better than not talking. Though it was a little problematic that right after John Kerry, the special climate envoy from the US, met with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, Kerry then tested positive for COVID. Not ideal in terms of the mood music around that meeting, but again, promising that at least they are talking to each other. They clearly need to be.
Having said all of that, the idea of phasing out fossil fuels didn't make it into the text. There was a strong need to defend the 1.5 degrees centigrade maximum acceptable warming, which the world is going to shoot past, it's going to be two or 2.5 so it's a conversation without a lot of substance to it, but it almost died informally in this summit, and again, it shows you kind of how the world has not been able to get ahead of climate response in alignment with what policy makers that are given responsibility for dealing with climate have been pushing for.
I would say that most of the real action is actually happening in developing countries striking solo deals for their own countries. We saw that last year with South Africa and an $8.5 billion deal to help them finance a faster transition to renewables. This year, Indonesia, a $20 billion deal getting inked, Vietnam, India, Senegal, are all in pretty advanced stages of talks that should happen over the course of 2023, and that process is appealing to developing countries. It's pretty straightforward, it's a lot faster and there are a lot of African countries that are talking privately about planning on leveraging the COP platform but bypassing the overall negotiation system to bring money home.
What that means is that you have this very, very slow global wide progress, but very fast paced individual country packages makes an open question as to whether the COP itself has as much of a future. Will we see these big global climate summits? They are important because they are forcing mechanisms for individual leaders for the developed world to make announcements that then become policy over time. If you break that and you just do individual deals, you're going to lose a lot of progress overall in carbon emissions and in how fast you move to renewable.
By the way, the Secretary General is very concerned about this, that if you want to move towards a 2 or even a 2.5-degree goal as opposed to 3, which is where the world is presently heading, and you get rid of the COP process, individual deals are not going to get you there.
As it stands right now, the COP process should be a movement of momentum in two different ways. First, it's a global marker for new announcements and the emergence of trends in solutions and focus areas. Then secondly, it's the actual negotiations and country level action. If you lose that, there still is an enormous amount of money being invested in new technologies, there is enormous amount of requirement of countries to do more because of the impact of climate change that is growing around the world. You will still get there, but you'll get there more slowly, you'll get there less efficiently, and you'll get there with the developing countries taking even more of the burden on their shoulders because the wealthy countries are focusing on themselves and not on global north south or west south solutions.
As it is right now, sort of looking at what's happened over the last two, two and a half weeks, it feels like you're in a car that's accelerating off a cliff. This summit did not materially reduce the speed, but it did design some airbags so that's pretty much where we are and we'll be focusing a lot more on this issue going forward. Next year's summit in the United Arab Emirates, a country that cares a lot about diversifying their investment beyond fossil fuels, but also recognizes that they're going to be one of the last countries standing to be able to produce fossil fuels, a push and pull just like much the world is facing right now on responding to the growing challenge of climate change.
That's it for me, I'll talk to y'all real soon.
For more of Ian Bremmer's weekly analyses, subscribe to his GZERO World newsletter at ianbremmer.bulletin.com
- COP27 winners and losers ›
- What to expect from COP27: “It’s pretty grim” ›
- Egypt wants COP27 to be all about implementation ›
- Hard Numbers: Climate reparations, Ukraine grain deal extension, crypto mess, MH17 verdict ›
- What We're Watching: The end of Twitter (as we know it), climate reparations at COP27 ›
Egypt's Foreign Minister Samih Zhukri (l) speaks during the closing ceremony at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh.
What We’re Watching: Climate comp fund, Malaysian coalition building
COP27 delivers on reparations but fails on fossil fuels
Two days behind schedule, the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, finally wrapped up with a historic agreement on Sunday. Wealthy countries will pay poor nations for the economic damage caused by climate change. The so-called "loss and damage fund" will compensate the developing world for impacts like droughts and flooding, which rich nations led by the US had resisted for 30 years. But so far it's only a political statement of intentions with no financial commitment, so it'll be up to future COPs to work out the details. What's more, climate activists' joy over the much-awaited reparations deal was overshadowed by a lack of progress in cutting fossil fuels. Efforts to include stronger language on phasing out oil and natural gas on top of coal were rebuffed by top fossil fuel producers as well as by major guzzlers in the developing world who won't jeopardize their economic growth to embrace renewables. In other words, a victory for climate justice but a painful defeat for clean energy at a COP where expectations were low.
Get more COP27 insights from Eurasia Group analyst Franck Gbaguidi on our Instagram and YouTube channels.
Nationalist bloc might take power in Malaysia
As expected, Malaysia's general election on Saturday delivered a hung parliament without a clear winner. But there were plenty of losers. The opposition multiethnic alliance led by former PM Anwar Ibrahim won the most seats (80) but fell far short of a majority in the 222-member parliament, while the once-dominant UMNO party got its worst result ever with only 30. And perhaps the biggest upset was 97-year-old ex-PM Mahathir Mohamad losing his seat — his first election defeat in 53 years. Meanwhile, a Malay-first alliance captained by Muhyiddin Yassin, yet another former PM, overperformed with 73 seats. Muhyiddin is now favored to return to the premiership after clinching the support of two regional parties from Borneo and is wooing UMNO, but Anwar says he should have a go first. Who'll make the call? The current king under Malaysia’s unique rotating monarchy, who has the constitutional power to appoint the next PM and wants a name by Monday.
COP27 winners and losers
World leaders and climate warriors will soon be departing from the Egyptian resort city of Sharm El-Sheikh, closing out this year’s COP27 climate summit. So what have been the key takeaways from the event?
Eurasia Group’s Franck Gbaguidi sat down with climate expert Alessandro Vitelli to reflect on the central themes they encountered at COP27. For Gbaguidi, it was all about accountability. There was a “focus on breaking down the data, breaking down the figures, giving some of the timeline and checking intermediate milestones,” he said. And because this year’s COP was all about implementing earlier agreements, Vitelli explained, much of the talk focused on process, legalese, and new tech solutions.
Many headlines have also focused on the “loss and damage” issue with developing countries demanding that wealthier nations — those that have contributed the most to climate change — pay countries struggling in the face of environmental disasters. Progress on that front “has been slow … but at least it's in the agenda and that means that this conversation is really top of mind for everyone,” Ggabuidi said. While the talks carried on past Friday’s deadline, little is likely to be accomplished by the end of this year’s summit. But moving forward, Ggabuidi added, “I think it will be revisited in later COPs probably with bigger announcements in terms of facilities and pledges.”
- Hard Numbers: Climate reparations, Ukraine grain deal extension, crypto mess, MH17 verdict ›
- What We're Watching: The end of Twitter (as we know it), climate reparations at COP27 ›
- What to expect from COP27: “It’s pretty grim” ›
- Egypt wants COP27 to be all about implementation ›
- COP27: Not good enough ›
- COP15 biodiversity wish list for the private sector - GZERO Media ›
- COP15 biodiversity wish list for the private sector - GZERO Media ›
- "We don't have any right to destroy nature" — Suntory CEO Tak Niinami - GZERO Media ›
- Biodiversity loss: Is nature-positive the new net zero? - GZERO Media ›
- Biodiversity loss: Is nature-positive the new net zero? - GZERO Media ›
- The world "is more coupled than we think" - GZERO Media ›
The road to 2030
The past two years have brought devastating setbacks for global development goals including poverty reduction, gender equality, and climate action. GZERO Media will gather an expert panel of leaders from politics, the private sector, and international organizations to discuss how to get back on a path to greater peace and prosperity.
Join us on Thursday, December 15th at 11 am ET / 8 am PT / 5 pm CEST for a Global Stage livestream discussion, presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. The conversation will be moderated by Julia Chatterley of CNN International, with Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Dr. Omnia El Omrani, Youth Envoy for COP27 and SDG Champion; Melissa Fleming, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications; Hindou Ibrahim, Co-Chair of the International Indigenous Peoples Forum on Climate Change; Khadija Mayman, Whitaker Peace & Development Initiative; and Brad Smith, President and Vice Chair of Microsoft.
The Road to 2030: Getting Global Goals Back on Track
Thursday, December 15, 2022 | 11:00am – 12:00pm ET
US midterms have major global implications
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Do the US midterms matter to the rest of the world?
Usually, no. This time around, absolutely, yes. In part because of China. A Republican-led House is going to be a lot tougher on US-China relations, export controls, Taiwan trips, capital controls, you name it, capital restrictions. And I suspect that Biden is not going to want to be outdone by the Republicans on this issue. So it will mean a hardening there. But also, just the fact that the US is going to be seen as so much more politically dysfunctional, efforts of investigations and impeachments and the rest against Biden. The administration and the fact that Biden has portrayed this as a loss of democracy makes it harder for the Americans to be consistent and coherent with allies around the world. It doesn't stop US leadership on issues like Russia-Ukraine, but it does actually matter.
Will Russia be open to peace talks under the conditions laid out by Ukrainian President Zelensky?
I think that peace talks are becoming more likely again. The Americans, the Europeans, are pressuring Zelensky to talk with the Russians. Though it does not have to be at the head of state level and Zelensky isn't going to sit down and talk to Putin. But also the Chinese have been pressuring the Russians to talk to the Ukrainians. And indeed, I've just seen the deputy foreign minister of Russia saying, well, "we were never the ones that cut it off and we have no preconditions, we're ready to talk as long as there's goodwill," which is a very different position than the one they've had in the last couple months. But all which implies to me that some level of direct re-engagement of the Russians and the Ukrainians is reasonably likely. Does not in any way mean that we're close to actual negotiations on substance, on the ground, a cease fire, a pause in the fighting, any of those things. That becomes more likely as winter comes and as the forces get exhausted and the Russians, new Russian forces dig in.
As COP27 gets underway, will the summit yield meaningful policy action on climate?
No. Sadly, that's not happening out of this COP summit. In fact, what there is a bigger gap between developing countries who want to be paid for all the damages and want to be paid to do a transition. And the developed countries that just aren't doing very much in that regard at all. It is good to see that Brazil, the DRC and Indonesia are coming together on deforestation and OPEC for deforestation. But instead of taking stuff out of the ground, hoping putting stuff back in. It's good to see that kind of coordination going forward. And certainly, post-Bolsonaro, Lula's more interested in showing that he can make progress on that issue. It's pretty urgent, but broadly speaking, this is a bit of nothing burger for a COP summit. Hopefully COP28, COP29 gets us back on track on that front.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni during a press conference in Rome.
What We’re Watching: Meloni’s migrant moves, a cartel for rainforests, Haiti’s hope for fuel
Meloni draws a line on migrants
Since becoming Italy’s prime minister two weeks ago, Giorgia Meloni has pushed back against media attempts to portray her as a far-right nationalist euro-skeptic troublemaker. Aware that Italy needs cash from the EU, she’s presented her government as ready to negotiate with Brussels on outstanding issues in good faith. She’s made clear her support for Ukraine and NATO. Yet, she does stand ready to strike a harder line on migration policy as asylum-seekers continue to arrive by boat. (Italy has already received 85,000 migrants from across the Mediterranean this year.) On Sunday, two rescue ships that made port in Sicily were told that children and people with medical problems were allowed off the ships, but able-bodied men were not considered “vulnerable” and must remain on board. The ships were then ordered to leave, but their captains refused to budge. Rights groups and Italian opposition politicians say Italy’s decision violates EU law and the Geneva Convention. Meloni knows that many Italians expect a harder line on asylum policy and that greenlighting the entry of all migrants encourages more people to take the risky journey across the Med. This standoff is just the beginning of the Meloni government’s battle with EU officials and aid groups over an issue that provokes strong emotions on both sides.
Rainforest cartel!
Well if the world’s largest oil exporters can form a cartel to influence crude prices, why can’t the world’s largest rainforest superpowers do the same to control deforestation? That’s precisely the idea behind a plan by Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo to form a new “OPEC of Rainforests.” The three countries are home to more than half of the world’s total tropical forests, which environmentalists say are crucial “lungs of the earth” to mitigate the global warming effects of greenhouse gasses. The grouping would coordinate on limiting deforestation while also advancing proposals for developed countries to help finance conservation efforts in the Global South. This issue is a big one at COP27: Developing countries bear the brunt of climate change catastrophes while — with the exception of big polluters China and India — emitting relatively little. One major boon to the Rainforest OPEC idea was the election last week of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president of Brazil. He has pledged to eliminate Amazon deforestation during his term. That’s a sharp contrast with outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro, whose pro-farmer policies caused a significant uptick in Amazon deforestation in recent years.
Gangster fuel politics rock Haiti
Jimmy Cherizier, a former cop who goes by the name "Barbecue" as Haiti's top gangster, says he's lifted the blockade on the main fuel terminal in the capital, Port-au-Prince. In theory, that should ease a severe shortage that has forced gas stations to close, hospitals to run only essential services amid a cholera outbreak, and banks and grocery stores to open just for a few hours. But there's a problem: While Barbecue — perhaps under pressure from fresh UN sanctions against him — claims that truckers are now free to get fuel, no one knows if any fuel has actually left the terminal or who really controls it. Neither the government nor police have yet to react to Barbecue's announcement, celebrated by some Haitians who now openly call him "Monsieur President." Meanwhile, the UN keeps dragging its feet on holding a vote on deploying foreign troops to end the crisis, which started two months ago when embattled PM Ariel Henry suddenly scrapped much-needed fuel subsidies that made prices skyrocket. And what about ordinary Haitians? They remain cut off from fuel and helpless to do anything amid the ongoing fight between Barbecue and Henry in the perennial failed state.
An image of Elon Musk is seen on a smartphone placed on printed Twitter logos.
What We're Watching: The end of Twitter (as we know it), climate reparations at COP27
Quo vadis, Elon?
Elon Musk is taking disruption to a whole new level as the CEO of Twitter. After firing half of his staff on Friday, the world's richest man has lit another fire with plans for an $8 subscription service to get verified on the social media platform. Before Musk took over, the coveted blue check was free for public figures, companies, and journalists, but now technically anybody can get it. That raises the stakes for all sorts of misinformation mayhem, though the rollout has now been delayed until after Tuesday's US midterm elections. Major corporate advertisers responded to the brouhaha by pausing their ads, with Musk admitting a big drop in revenue, which he blamed on firms caving to activists' demands. So, what’s next? Ian Bremmer — who tussled with Musk over Russia-Ukraine just weeks before the gazillionaire bought Twitter — hinted that the platform's new boss might have a shorter tenure than disgraced former British PM Liz Truss, who famously lasted less time than a head of lettuce in her last days in office. For Russia, Bremmer noted, "buying a few thousand verified Twitter accounts at $8/pop to promote disinfo feels like a no-brainer."