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Minimum wage won't go up for now; Texas sets reopening example
Jon Lieber, Managing Director of the United States for the Eurasia Group, shares his insights on US politics in Washington, DC:
Another stimulus bill is about to pass the Senate. Why won't the minimum wage be going up?
Well, the problem with the minimum wage is it didn't have the 50 votes it needed to overcome the procedural hurdles that prevent the minimum wage when traveling with the stimulus bill. Clearly support for $15 an hour minimum wage in the House of Representatives, but there's probably somewhere between 41 and 45 votes for it in the Senate. There may be a compromise level that emerges later in the year as some Republicans have indicated, they'd be willing to support a lower-level minimum wage increase. But typically, those proposals come along with policies that Democrats find unacceptable, such as an employment verification program for any new hire in the country. Labor unions have been really, really fixated on getting a $15 an hour minimum wage. They may not be up for a compromise. So, we'll see what happens.
What's next for Congress after the stimulus?
What's next is probably more stimulus. Over the summer, you're going to see Democrats focus on doing a lot of nominations for executive branch nominees, as well as starting to apply pressure on some of their more moderate members to eliminate the legislative filibuster. If they eliminate the legislative filibuster, that will open up a whole suite of new possibilities, including voting rights reforms that will be critical for the Democrats if they want to maintain the majority in the House of Representatives going forward because the voting rights reform bill that passed the house would block partisan gerrymandering that's helped Republicans get a structural advantage that's kept them in the majority now for quite some time. And will probably be helpful and winning it back for them in 2022.
Texas is open. What's happening in the Lone Star State?
Well, Texas is the first large state to fully reopen and to eliminate any restrictions on coronavirus. That means no mask mandate, no capacity restrictions on restaurants. Governor Abbott recognizes that coronavirus is still an issue in his state, but sees the hospitalization and death numbers going down, and the vaccination numbers going up. He claims they have the testing ability to keep the virus under control even without these restrictions on people's movements. And that's probably a pretty popular move in Texas. The reality is even without the mask mandates, some restaurants and individuals are going to continue to wear masks and insist that their customers do. And they're going to keep social distancing and all that. And even under the mask mandates, a lot of people weren't following the rules anyway. So, this is going to be a trend that happens over the next six to eight weeks as vaccinations become widely available in America. And you're going to see more and more states start to drop their restrictions, which is likely to lead to an economic boom in the spring going into the summer.
What We're Watching: Hajj passports, AfD vs German intelligence, Turkey's human rights plan
Passport to the Hajj — Saudi Arabia announced that it will require pilgrims to have vaccine passports in order to enter the country for the annual Hajj later this year. Each year, millions of Muslims from dozens of countries travel to the holy sites of Mecca and Medina to fulfill a religious obligation, in an annual event that brings in billions of dollars for the Saudi economy. The vaccine passport requirement may mean that people without means or access to vaccines in their home countries will be shut out of the Hajj this year, but Riyadh is relying on the scheme to help them pull off the event — after last year's event was mainly cancelled amid the pandemic— without fomenting a COVID outbreak.
Alternative für Surveillance — The German government has reportedly placed the far-right Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party under surveillance for its far-right extremist affiliations. AfD, a euroskeptic party with a strongly anti-Islam platform, has been the largest opposition party in Germany's legislature since 2017, but its popularity has trailed off over the past year. The move will allow German intelligence to tap the party's phones and surveil its communications. The AfD, for its part, says that being placed under surveillance will hurt the group's ability to compete in a spate of local elections and the general election this fall. And if AfD doesn't do well, its supporters will almost certainly dismiss the election as illegitimate, taking a leaf out of the pro-Trump playbook. (After the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, an AfD lawmaker wrote, "Trump is fighting the same political fight — you have to call it a culture war — as we in the Alternative for Germany are in Germany.")
Turkey to embrace human rights? — Turkey's pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is turning over a new leaf, he says, with an 11-point human rights program to be rolled out over the next two years. The somewhat skimpy plan includes judiciary and criminal justice reforms, new human rights watchdogs, and expanded legal protections for women. The move could be a precursor to writing a more "democratic" constitution, Ankara says. For years, Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party have been accused of human rights abuses, targeting journalists, and cracking down on political opponents — trends that only intensified after a failed coup attempt against Erdogan in 2016. While Erdogan's embrace of a rights-based approach to domestic policy is certainly a step in the right direction, the talk of rewriting the constitution has set humans rights groups on edge — they worry that Erdogan will use the process to strengthen his own powers even further. The timing of Erdogan's transformation is also interesting: his approval rating is sagging as unemployment remains high, while inequality worsened during the pandemic.
Dr. Fauci's pandemic prognosis
The country's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, joins Ian Bremmer to talk vaccines, school re-openings, and when—and how—the pandemic could finally come end. He was last on GZERO World just weeks before the pandemic hit in the fall of 2019 and he described at the time what kept him up at night: a "pandemic-like respiratory illness." This time, he'll talk about how closely that nightmare scenario foreshadowed the COVID-19 pandemic. He'll also offer some guidance about what public health measures vaccinated Americans should continue to take in the coming months (hint: masks stay on).
Podcast: Dr. Fauci's Pandemic Prognosis
Listen: The country's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, joins Ian Bremmer to talk vaccines, school re-openings, and when—and how—the pandemic could finally come end. He was last on GZERO World just weeks before the pandemic hit in the fall of 2019 and he described at the time what kept him up at night: a "pandemic-like respiratory illness." This time, he talks about how closely that nightmare scenario foreshadowed the COVID-19 pandemic. He also offers some guidance about what public health measures vaccinated Americans should continue to take in the coming months (hint: masks stay on).
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Dr. Fauci on the world's nightmare year and when the COVID-19 pandemic could end
In the fall of 2019, weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic would change the world, Ian Bremmer asked Dr. Fauci what kept him up at night and he described a "a pandemic-like respiratory infection." Fast-forward to late February 2021 and Dr. Fauci tells Ian, "I think we are living through much of that worst nightmare." Dr. Fauci returns to GZERO World to take stock of the nightmare year and to paint a picture of what the end of the pandemic could look like—and when it could finally arrive.
Catch the full episode of GZERO World, where Dr. Fauci discusses the latest in vaccine roll out, schools re-openings, and plenty more, on US public television stations nationwide, beginning Friday, February 26. Check local listings.
Can AMLO live up to Mexico’s critical moment? Jorge Ramos discusses
Mexico finds itself at a critical moment in history: its populist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (also known as AMLO), appears unable to get control of the rampant violence that he promised to curb or of the raging coronavirus that he himself was just infected by. And during this moment of crisis, Mexico's most important trading partner, the United States, has just elected a new president. Outside observers were surprised by leftist AMLO's ability to get along so well with former President Trump. Will President Biden prove a tougher challenge? Ian Bremmer welcomes acclaimed journalist and Univision anchor Jorge Ramos to GZERO World.
The battles ahead against COVID-19
"This is the part of the horror film where a happy ending seems in sight, but it is obvious to those paying attention that the monster is not dead and that the worst may be yet to come." That's how New York Times columnist Ezra Klein described this moment in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. We're in a new year, there's a new president, and the record-breaking development of vaccines that work has wounded the monster, but there are deadly battles still ahead. Chief among them: the highly-contagious variants of the COVID-19 virus.
Watch the GZERO World episode: The race to vaccinate
COVID successes in India and Israel
For a while, says surgeon and public health expert Dr. Atul Gawande, India was on the same skyrocketing COVID-19 infection rate pathway as the United States. But then something remarkable happened: masking went way up, and infection rates plummeted. And in Israel, Dr. Gawande estimates that enough of the population has already been vaccinated to meaningfully bring down infection and hospitalization rates. The key to effective pandemic responses around the globe, Dr. Gawande concludes, is effective leadership. Dr. Gawande joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about some of the success stories from around the world. He'll also weigh in on whether or not China and Russia's less-vetted vaccines are safe to take.
Watch the episode: The race to vaccinate